kingcomet:
that's cool. I see a bright future for Nigeria

My brother nothing bright there.

mercichoco:
Thats a good improvement.
btw the post above hates goodnews

......or you hate knowledge, information and the related imagination for seeing beyond the immediately obvious.

shadeyinka:


You speak like a real Nigerian economist no offence intended.

The question I asked is like:
If an irresponsible lazy bone discover a stash of Gold in his compound, would his business grow?

We know what this guy would do: he will spend money, he will live in affluence, he will purchase luxuries. In summary, he will appear successful but in reality, he doesn't have the capacity to sustain the sudden wealth he has.

So is the case with Nigeria. Oil becomes $210pb?
1. Naira will appreciate in value: since no more scarcity of forex :
Note: that the economic fundermental hasn't changed
2. GDP will shoot up: largest economy by consumption not by strength.

Bottom line:
A country that depend on importation of more than 80% of what she consumes has a terribly weak economy. Subject to external demand variables.

You spoke about foreign investors and I couldn't help but laugh inside. Why?
No country develops by foreign investors unless such a country is bent on
Stealing Technology, Cloning Technology, Developing Technology etc. Other than that, it is plain robbery.

Example:
MTN is a foreign investment in Nigeria!
Who gains more in terms of Profit ? South Africa!

The profit they make in Naira is transfered to SA in dollars putting more pressures on the Naira( Since we'll have more naira and less dollar in circulation).

There is no economy if Nigeria depend on IMPORT for almost everything: clothes, paper, pins, blades, pencils, ..not to speak of phones, computers, cars etc

I believe you understand my point of view.

Our economic structure is NON EXISTENT!

This is my last response to you, because you don't seems to have an in-depth understanding of the subject matter. Solution to all you said above is diversification, and we can't diversify without spending -- which we need oil revenue for.

Because there is no economic structure does not mean there can't be, this administration is putting way too much in place.

pacino2626:

My brother nothing bright there.

Hehe you no believe in naija sef

DropShot:

Perhaps you genuinely think some of these guys don't understand these workings of the economy. The truth is a handful of them do understand, but any good news makes them develop belly ache.

In another thread yesterday where it was reported that the economy recorded $1.2bn (?) capital inflow, they dismissed it, saying it's a small fry compared to past years! My argument that any report of capital inflow during recession, after witnessing series of capital outflow, is a good news to the economy, fell on deaf ears.

Watch as they start calling you "a paid per post sycophant"

I am not happy with Nigerian economists because I believe that they leave the very simple economic theory to speak big economic grammers.

The size of an economy or its strength shouldn't be measured in terms of GDP for instant. It should be measured in relation to real production/ consumption ratio AND I said reap production to exclude exportation of natural resources.

Exportation of Natural resources gives a country foreign cash to spend at the expense of weakning the economy.

Real economy is all about adding value to commodities. In exportation of crude for instance, what value has been added?

If Nigeria in 2016 is behind Japan of 1920, there is a deep fundermental problem!

Real Production is the back bone of Economic strength.

[size=18pt]A consuming economy like Nigeria is no economy! We are living on lottery funds[/size]

kingcomet:


Hehe you no believe in naija sef

I do just that we sleep a lot and leap for joy once there's power without staying awake to tackle fundamental problems. What the naira is experiencing is just speculative appreciation and nothing more. The dollar remains strengthened, we've not maxed up production, unemployment is in the high do what are we celebrating?

TRUMP WINNING BABYYYYY....

Pavore9:


That is why there will always be a wide difference between the "official rate" and what is obtainable on the street.

Not really, the CBN already have plans in place, for instance, BDC rate was fixed recently at N385. And with more money transfer agents been licensed, people will naturally adjust to a more structure system.

Truth234:
Not just small, it will jump. These are why:

To revamp an economy like ours, we need to spend aggressively to create jobs and attack unemployment (13.3%) in order to boost consumer spending, but with oil prices this low, it is practically impossible to spend what you don't have. Hence, the reason PMB is seeking to borrow $30 billion to augment declining external reserves ($23 billion) use to back the Naira and offset deficit created by global oil glut.

Two, at $210 a barrel, diversification becomes a reality and FG will deploy all tools towards its actualization, backed with cheaper loans.

Three, Not just will our capital importation surge, we will also attract real foreign investors interested in long-term goal.

Please do not forget we are mono-crude oil economy, nothing will be achieved without oil revenue. We need it to strategically diversify the economy.

What has Buhari done in his past as military Head of State and since the mid-70s when he has been in power to "strategically diversify the economy"?

That's good news, we need an economy that will attract investors and local producers

Truth234:


Not really, the CBN already have plans in place, for instance, BDC rate was fixed recently at N385. And with more money transfer agents been licensed, people will naturally adjust to a more structure system.

How many are getting it easily at N385 because it easily gotten at over N450. Here in Kenya, bank are selling dollar for 104-105 shillings while their BDCs sells at 102 shillings.

chriskosherbal:
It's our prayer as a nation that the naira continue with its current recovery.

Lol dnt be deceived, it's the US election in play
Stock markets are currently going down in the US right now

Nooooo!!! My mmm bonus

kingcomet:
that's cool. I see a bright future for Nigeria

China has had a great past and a bright future by keeping its exchange rate very low STEADILY to encourage local businesses for consumption and exports while attracting foreign investment.
How do you explain that?

Kaybaba5:
Naira is going somewhere

down.

Truth234:


This is my last response to you, because you don't seems to have an in-depth understanding of the subject matter. Solution to all you said above is diversification, and we can't diversify without spending -- which we need oil revenue for.

Because there is no economic structure does not mean there can't be, this administration is putting way too much in place.

I am sorry, I understand you very well. Maybe I am pouring out my anger on the "system".

Diversification is the word everyone has been saying without any specifics being mentioned. If there would indeed be a diversification, the policy framework would have been apparent by now. Without that, I am sorry nothing concrete will happen.

Don't forget that we have been talking about diversification since the time of IBB. I just see us as not serious.

If you ask me, I believe that diversification of our economy will only make sense when we start with " Import Substitution Industrial is action" model of the economy.

I am not seeing any government plan towards that hence my grouchiness. Forgive me.

I just hate when we measure economic growth on paper and close our eyes to reality.

Except for this year, the economy of Nigerians has consistently grown in terms of GDP yet, inflation and poverty is increasing at an exponential rate. You can understand why someone like me will scringe at our economic experts.

shadeyinka:


I am not happy with Nigerian economists because I believe that they leave the very simple economic theory to speak big economic grammers.

The size of an economy or its strength shouldn't be measured in terms of GDP for instant. It should be measured in relation to real production/ consumption ration AND I said reap production to exclude exportation of natural resources.

Exportation of Natural resources gives a country foreign cash to spend at the expense of weakning the economy.

Real economy is all about adding value to commodities. In exportation of crude for instance, what value has been added?

If Nigeria in 2016 is behind Japan of 1920, there is a deep fundermental problem!

Real Production is the back bone of Economic strength.

[size=18pt]A consuming economy like Nigeria is no economy! They are living on lottery funds[/size]

It's a complete self deceit to gauge your economy on a commodity you have no control over its price.

Unfortunately and annoyingly is the fact that the money (billions of dollars) we earned through such windfall from crude was not judiciously utilized.


The best time we could have diversified was during the windfall period. The next best time is now even though it must come with pains and sacrifice. We now must borrow our way out of recession since we didn't save our own windfall.

Saudi with a population of about 32 million has over $570bn in reserves (actually over $600bn at the start of crude crash) and Qatar with under 2 million population has more than $36bn in reserves. Similar stories with all other oil-dependent countries who are able to weather the storm of crude crash. Nigeria with a population of over 170 million has a paltry $20 something billion dollars in her reserves, yet they said "GEJ left money".

So tb joshua has failed again in his prediction? So wole soyinka will tear his green card. So some nigerians in USA will be deported soon. Let's see how it goes

chriskosherbal:
It's our prayer as a nation that the naira continue with its current recovery.

Lol. You must be high

Majorking66:
That's good news, we need an economy that will attract investors and local producers

China has shown that a developing country needs PERSISTENTLY low exchange rate to encourage local consumption and foreign investments.
Therefore this is not good news if we are concerned about our long term development.

Pavore9:


How many are getting it easily at N385 because it easily gotten at over N450. Here in Kenya, bank are selling dollar for 104-105 shillings while their BDCs sells at 102 shillings.

These measures are being put in place right now, it will take awhile to filtered through all segments. We've seen how effective such measure can be with Travelex, at least some are getting at N385, with more money transfer agents coming into the picture, 2017/2018 will see a better Naira.

DropShot:

It's a complete self deceit to gauge your economy on a commodity you have no control over its price.

Unfortunately and annoyingly is the fact that the money (billions of dollars) we earned through such windfall from crude was not judiciously utilized.


The best time we could have diversified was during the windfall period. The next best time is now even though it must come with pains and sacrifice. We now must borrow our way out of recession since we didn't save our own windfall.

Saudi with a population of about 32 million has over $570bn in reserves (actually over $600bn at the start of crude crash) and Qatar with under 2 million population has more than $36bn in reserves. Similar stories with all other oil-dependent countries who are able to weather the storm of crude crash.

I agree perfectly with your submission. We should have used our "free money" from oil to develop our industrial capacity and free ourselves from the trap of importation.

If a miracle happens now and Nigeria can produce internally 80% of what she consumes. The Naira will be super strong even at the current price of crude.

Our economic leaders will rather have us find more oil for exportation rather than develop an industrial base.

I will make 1$ equals N100 says TRUMP

shadeyinka:


I am sorry, I understand you very well. Maybe I am pouring out my anger on the "system".

Diversification is the word everyone has been saying without any specifics being mentioned. If there would indeed be a diversification, the policy framework would have been apparent by now. Without that, I am sorry nothing concrete will happen.

Don't forget that we have been talking about diversification since the time of IBB. I just see us as not serious.

If you ask me, I believe that diversification of our economy will only make sense when we start with " Import Substitution Industrial is action" model of the economy.

I am not seeing any government plan towards that hence my grouchiness. Forgive me.

I just hate when we measure economic growth on paper and close our eyes to reality.

Except for this year, the economy of Nigerians has consistently grown in terms of GDP yet, inflation and poverty is increasing at an exponential rate. You can understand why someone like me will scringe at our economic experts.

you don't owe anyone an apology for expressing your views. rather Buhari owes us an apology and a resignation with immediate effect....

That is a good news

Truth234:


These measures are being put in place right now, it will take awhile to filtered through all segments. We've seen how effective such measure can be with Travelex, at least some are getting at N385, with more money transfer agents coming into the picture, 2017/2018 will see a better Naira.

A better Naira should be tied to productivity not to money transfer agents. Local production is very key to a better Naira as we have so much local raw materials that beg for value addition but we have over time imported its finished products.

NgcoboP:

you don't owe anyone an apology for expressing your views. rather Buhari owes us an apology and a resignation with immediate effect....

Even if he isn't an economic expert, as a President he could have called a National Economic Conference. Apart from the Nigeria Economic Forum in existence. We should by now know exactly how Nigeria will come out of recession.

Economic theory says spend your way out of recession and I say "On What?"

Obama spent on Ford and GM which directly impacted jobs, what is Nigeria spending on?

shadeyinka:


I agree perfectly with your submission. We should have used our "free money" from oil to develop our industrial capacity and free ourselves from the trap of importation.

If a miracle happens now and Nigeria can produce internally 80% of what she consumes. The Naira will be super strong even at the current price of crude.

Our economic leaders will rather have us find more oil for exportation rather than develop an industrial base.

I disagree.... and am quoting you because your earlier views sounded more sane and intelligent. now that we need restructuring and diversification Buhari is committing billions to oil exploration in Chad basin and other northern regions.... attempting to borrow what unborn children will pay for.....

if you like pump 10 zillion dollars into Nigeria it will not work unless there's a restructuring and aided by accountability and transparency with return of power to the LGAs with a termination of the feeding bottle federal system

shadeyinka:


Even if he isn't an economic expert, as a President he could have called a National Economic Conference. Apart from the Nigeria Economic Forum in existence. We should by now know exactly how Nigeria will come out of recession.

Economic theory says spend your way out of recession and I say "On What?"

Obama spent on Ford and GM which directly impacted jobs, what is Nigeria spending on?

that guy is not interested in anything not northern in nature.... especially not Fulani oriented. that my friend is the bitter truth

Pavore9:


A better Naira should be tied to productivity not to money transfer agents. Local production is very key to a better Naira as we have so much local raw materials that beg for value addition but we have over time imported its finished products.

So how do you get "capital importation" to source for raw materials in a mono-crude and import-depending economy currently in recession like Nigeria? Bro its a process, the money transfer agents and high interest rate (14%) to attracts FDI are means to an end, not the end in itself.