989900:
@LordAdam16: The point is that most people including media houses, some finance experts, and government officials confuse total capital inflow with diaspora remittance and FDIs.

According to your last image and the parts underlined in red actually proves my point (FDIs, remittances, aids and e.t.c inclusive). Read it again.

Actually in 2011, it was less than $15b more like $11b. World bank data was referring to total capital inflow there.

The CBN breakdown is in the attached images . . . The best I can do . . . I wish am allowed to post links. I screen shot those from CBN's 2011 financial report(PDF).

$22b was total inflow.

Personal remittances is the sum of personal transfers and compensation of employees.

LordAdam16:



How can you say you know more about what personal remittances are than the World Bank and CBN?

What kind of arrogance is that?

See, no let me vex, no body is paying me to educate you.

-Lord

LordAdam16:



How can you say you know more about what personal remittances are than the World Bank and CBN?

What kind of arrogance is that?

See, no let me vex, no body is paying me to educate you.

-Lord

LordAdam16:


Oga stop confusing yourself.

The language is diaspora remittances which can also be called remittances inflows.

And now, you are shifting goalpost from 15b to 11b.

World bank is not referring to total capital inflows. If they are referring to total capital inflows, they'll state it very clearly.

A-list media organizations are not arm chair economists. They are often economists or journalists with decades of experience in following the economy.

Inward transfers--$22b. Remittances--$20.1b. It is very clear there.

Now look at this link -- http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/bx.trf.pwkr.cd.dt

It is clearly called Personal Remittances not total capital inflows.

In fact World Bank clearly defines personal remittances on their own website--https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/114950-how-do-you-define-remittances.



How can you say you know more about what personal remittances are than the World Bank and CBN?

What kind of arrogance is that?

See, no let me vex, no body is paying me to educate you.

-Lord

L L

The personal remittances link you posted was for 2015, which is correct.


The data images from CBN I posted was for 2011, and total capital inflow was $22b.

989900:


L L

The personal remittances link you posted was for 2015, which is correct.


The data images from CBN I posted was for 2011, and total capital inflow was $22b.

LordAdam16:


[s]Seriously, 989900 I shame for you.

I am ashamed of you. Kai!

So, you want me to show you how to browse a website too?

Oya, since I'm a kind-hearted fellow, let me help a brother.

Adjust your glasses, if you no get glasses, tomorrow go and get glasses. For now you can watch your eyes.

Now open this link: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/bx.trf.pwkr.cd.dt?end=2015&start=2011&year_high_desc=false

I no need explain how I use tk convert the first link to that link, your small sized brain no go fit understand am (na joke o). There is a slider under the chart on the desktop version of the site. Move it from 1970 to 2011, it'll show you Nigeria's personal remittances for 2011[/s].

-Lord

LordAdam16:






No be my fault say your argument no gel. Only you na World Bank President cum CBN President.

No wonder BMC never employ you (na joke oo)...

-Lord

989900:


You simply don't get the drift: Why does the world bank's data for 2011 not match with CBN's financial report for 2011? BTW, they do match for the year 2015.

LordAdam16:


Oga, your eye dey real pain you...

Look at the link again -- http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/bx.trf.pwkr.cd.dt?end=2015&name_desc=false&start=2011 and look at my earlier screenshot. In fact, no worry, I'll help you.

Mate, whatever it is you're smoking should be deemed contraband.

989900:


I'd say the same for you, but that's what people do when they're avoiding the core issues.

BTW, go to my earlier posts and check CBN's financial report for 2011. It is online too.

LordAdam16:


It wouldn't hit us VERY hard. It'd be hard, but it wouldn't be sth we can't manage. The Egyptian float led to a devaluation of 50%.

Nigeria has better fundamentals than Egypt, but even if we are to use 50%, that means the rate would fall from N306/$1 (today's rate) to N459/$1.

The major problem would be the impact on fuel prices, but the FG can combat that with increase of wages (which would be feasible since the earnings into the FG, State Government, and LG have been increasing and will increase). Nigeria's minimum wage is over due for review.

As for price of imports, well dollar fell to 520 and Nigerians didn't die.

The longer we delay, the longer we postpone the inevitable.

[/b]If we had done a full float when dollar was N250 in the official market, it'd have at most devalued to N375. Which is a rate the CBN is fighting to hold now.[b]

There is no better time to act than now. Not tomorrow, not next year, not in the next decade. Now!

Sanusi, Riwane, Utomi, Soludo can't all be wrong. No one can be more patriotic than these people, and they've been calling for a float since the N199/$1 days. The FG and CBN were stubborn, yet they kept devaluing the rate first to N250, then to N306, early chatter is pointing to N350 next, and along the way they've been imposing unnecessary hardship on Nigerians, because investors who'd invest in the real sector have held back their funds, international organizations that'd give us the $30b loans needed to reboot the economy have held back (IMF, World Bank, even China).

Float the damn currency, yet APC is playing politics with the currency rate. Even to increase minimum wage, they've been playing politics discussing about it since late 2015. It's 2017, and it's clear they might want to announce an increase in 2018 to garner votes.

Speculators and hoarders are not the enemies, the CBN and FG are the enemies. They create avenue for the leeches to stay. Float the naira, and speculators and hoarders would pack their load. Foreign investors would come in with their billions of dollars and the pressure on the currency reserves will lighten. Saudi Arabia may have a show down with shale producers again, and we'll need a huge reserve to ride that wave, Russia, Canada, Norway, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, are ready, Nigeria is busy fighting with speculators. Imagine our priorities.

Egypt received $9b in direct investment inonly 3 months after the float. That's aside the $12b with super low interest rates (as against our costly EU bonds). And that's aside $3.1b in portfolio investments. To put that in perspective, the entire amount of dollars sold to all licensed BDCs in Nigeria in a whole year at $8,000 per week is $1.2b.

Nigerians will not learn. As Onatisi usually says, na until their neck stretch like streetlight before them go get sense.

-Lord

rmx1:



At the bolded , told people then and since ,we could have taken the bullet once in July 2016 when the official rates were moved from 199 to 280 then ,I strongly felt if a true float had been done then ,it would have shot up to 380 max and subsequently settled BTW 320 to 350,black market or speculators would have been no more relevant

This protracted battle would not have been necessary

The govt is between the devil and the sea ,hard choices will be made sooner or later .I Pray gods wisdom is given to them and that am wrong

LordAdam16:


Madam, the CBN knows the party is ending. They don't want a replay of 28/02/17 to 08/03/17 to occur. So, they're giving early indications that they are still on the offensive.

I wouldn't pass it off completely as hogwash. Who the gods want to destroy they first make mad.

But what I sense is panic on the part of Okarofor, the CBN, and the FG. Unlike in the early days of this month when they started their second round of intervention, the oil price was rising, currency reserve was rising, and speculators still had lots of dollars in hand.

Now, the oil price have fallen, currency reserve is falling, and speculators have reduced their exposure in a big way. Seriously, speculators wouldn't make big losses now. They'd solely be eating up every cheap dollars they can lay their hands on.

If the CBN wants to, they can inject $1.5b to reduce the parallel rate to N305/$1. We all know they can't go lower, and as they've said, that's their target. This is the first time they've actually made that known in public. However, if they wanted to reduce it further, IMTO's will cease sending money to Nigeria. Investors will scream blue murder. Foreign remittance will stop increasing. The pressure on the foreign reserve will increase multiple fold. And FDI will halt completely (not that anything was coming in anyway).

When parallel rate appreciates to N305/$1 and there's no where else to go. There'd be only one direction for the rate to go. The fall will be the biggest fall in recent history.

I can't wait.

It's clear that the CBN and FG are masochists. And Nigerians wouldn't get pity, because it appears they too want to listen to blues.

-Lord

rmx1:



At the bolded , told people then and since ,we could have taken the bullet once in July 2016 when the official rates were moved from 199 to 280 then ,I strongly felt if a true float had been done then ,it would have shot up to 380 max and subsequently settled BTW 320 to 350,black market or speculators would have been no more relevant

This protracted battle would not have been necessary

The govt is between the devil and the sea ,hard choices will be made sooner or later .I Pray gods wisdom is given to them and that am wrong

dumo1:
please they should bring it back to $250 where they met it before.

AntiWailer:
Until it gets to where you met it.


Nothing to commend you for.

donfemo:


Thank you very much. The Idiots met dollar at 185 and are boasting that they will push it to 305. just imagine the idiots. we will only commend CBN if dollar is NGN 120

EVILFOREST:

Don't mind the ingrates

tspun:
there will be no return leg if oil pricing continue to increase, its going to be leg over for u and other speculators that want the dollar to increase more.

You talk about cbn emptying Nigeria's reserve by selling cheap dollars, no be who eat belle full they keep for reserve, people are committing suicide every day due to the present hardship and your only worry is about our reserve.

tspun:
there will be no return leg if oil pricing continue to increase, its going to be leg over for u and other speculators that want the dollar to increase more.

You talk about cbn emptying Nigeria's reserve by selling cheap dollars, no be who eat belle full they keep for reserve, people are committing suicide every day due to the present hardship and your only worry is about our reserve.