By Dele Sobowale

The naira rises by N12 to N385/$.

Babajide Komolafe, VANGUARD, April 20, 2017, p 5.

THOMAS Hardy, 1840-1928, great British writer, once said that “a pessimist is the person who looks at the worst possible contingencies.” (VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 186).

No Federal Government official has been plagued by more pessimists in the last two years, but especially since January this year, than Mr Emefiele, the Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria.

No current Minister handling any portfolio has had the dubious privilege of having his two predecessors in office mount such a blistering attack on his policies as Professor Charles Soludo and Emir Sanusi had done on the poor current holder of the national purse.

They were not alone. Experts including the “usual suspects” – Bismark Rewane and our own Henry Boyo, as well as some unknown critics gave the impression that the man did not know the first thing about banking. From some of the criticisms leveled against him, the CBN Governor is either a bumbling fool, or a saboteur or both.

The “Group of Seven”, tagged that just to save the trouble of naming them one by one, had an Advertorial published in VANGUARD on February 27, 2017, titled AN OPEN LETTER TO CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR GODWIN EMEFIELE REQUESTING FOR HIS RESIGNATION represents the position of most pessimists and those who would want Emefiele to accept their policies or resign or get sacked. Never mind the impudence involved in people who were not involved in appointing an employee and whose opinion was never sought and never will be, requesting for his resignation. This is Nigeria where bad manners know no limits. They wanted the CBN Governor to go unless he agreed to allow the market to determine exchange rates.

Before them, His Royal Highness, Sanusi, sounding increasingly like a candidate for office in 2019, had made the point that the exchange rate which was then on an upward climbing escalator would never come down as long as the CBN maintained three or four exchange rates. There were other reasons why people wanted the man to go.

The majority of commentators followed the direction of the critics and the exchange rates went from N400 to N450 to N500 and then peaked at N520 per dollar. But, some of us were not convinced that they got it right. My own instincts always tell me that “When all think alike; none thinks very much.” (Walter Lippmann, 1889-1974, VBQ p 245). It was for the same reason that the Fake News about a RANGE ROVER costing N370m or N298m, depending on whose falsehood you chose to believe, imported for the Senate President, Bukola Saraki never made sense to me. For weeks, nothing else was discussed in Nigeria. Erudite individuals, respected columnists, the usual Senior Advocates of Nigeria, SANs, radio show participants etc blasted the Senate and Saraki.

But, there was no N370m or N298m RANGE ROVER. The vehicle in question was imported in 2015, not 2017, at $298,000 with N150/US1 and the Customs kept quiet until 2017 out of deliberate mischief. Today, the story is all forgotten. So, there was a need to step back and do some independent thinking.

In a rejoinder to the advertorial by the Group of Seven and others, the following observation was made. Starting by pointing out that Nigeria’s rising exchange rate was caused almost exclusively by scarcity of dollars, and that Nigeria had the lowest Sovereign Wealth Fund, SWF, balance of all major oil producers, it was predicted that without leaving the exchange rate solely to the market, the CBN can bring down the escalating exchange rate by pumping in more dollars. That was in February. Please read on.

One “Know-Nothing” Governor of a South West State for political reasons even announced that the exchange rate would go as high as N1000/US1. Well, what can one expect of an HND holder? Less than $1 billion has so far been released to the market and rates have tumbled to $385/US1. If Emefiele has up to $2 billion to shovel into the market, mass suicide will follow among currency speculators. The rich also commit suicide; especially those who have over-exposed themselves financially.

Meanwhile, the downward trend occurred despite the multiple exchange rates and refusal of the CBN to surrender its judgment to the “market”. In short, CBN rejected the advice of the “experts” and still won the contest of wills. One question most people must be asking is: why was the reversal so sudden? Part of the answer is making the front page news these days.

Most of the naira chasing dollars were from illicit sources – cash stored in houses, graveyards, backyards and false wall panels. The discovery of some funds must have prompted some people to want to change naira to dollars at any rate because green backs are more compact and easier to conceal.

The principles of supply and demand break down when desperate people are prepared to buy a commodity – including dollars – at any rate. That is not how reasonable people behave. Yet, the market is meant for reasonable people.

That is the secret of Emefiele’s success and the pessimists are annoyed. Too bad isn’t it?


http://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/04/cbn-winning-pessimists-still-complain/

Winning on paper but there's still hunger in the land. Mr Dele or whatever your silly name is, when last did you go to the market? Do u know how much a paintt of garri is in the market? Take several seat and stfu! Thanks

people are really hating on this post it's scary!

Winning? All we need is N150/$1, then we will know they have started to win .

hmm

Hmm

Fuckery

they can do better. we don't accept mediocrity anymore in Nigeria

Winnning with our dollllar going yi 450

All those mumu people that don't know anything about economics will come for op . . THE MOVEMENT OF M¤R¤S

Economics is a m********r.
Actually every thing gets bad in Nigeria, there are too many loopholes.
The government never anticipates that people will take advantage of such loopholes.
Come up with policies and don't cover all the tracks.

Buhari is cursed

Abeg wen are they realeasing nnamdi kanu

zainabxel:
Gfff

the logo on my belt

Abdhul:
YO

OYO abi

I pray someday we come out of this victorious

True, there will always be die-hard pessimists.

However more people in authority could also learn to carry the people along both when they decide on policies and how they COMMUNICATE what they decide.

But then again, people usually don't listen well when they're hungry...

Oh yes
Victory have different meaning under APC

I went to buy a tricycle day before yesterday and they said it is 670k and I asked if it is a car I wanted buying. They said it is dollar that has gone up and I told the person dollar is no more going up and naira has appreciated so why the increase? They just laughed and I walked out.
Nigerians, the CBN is making efforts to reduce the rates but things will still remain high because we prefer to cheat than to actually do business.

Pessimists or haters of this administration.

Any government that complains too much about critics, instead of proving them wrong with actions, is a big joke..

After trial and error,u still ascribe anything to Emefiele than failure? This writer is deluded.
Put a primary school pupil in that post and with same trial and error he wudnt do worse than Emefiele.
In saner climes after seeing thru this worst kind of recession with countless monetary failure missteps,d CBN gov wud av resigned.But here somebody is celebrating a man that changes monetary and financial policies on a weekly basis.

M2dX:
E

Efo Riro

We'll surely win.

This comment is very disappointing:

"Well, what can one expect of an HND holder? "

You just ridiculed our education system and indirectly told Buhari that he has no business being in power with his WAEC. The only thing I agree with is that Buhari is not qualified to lead this nation.

solidman59:
Any government that complains too much about critics, instead of proving them wrong with actions, is a big joke..

And hasn't the government done that? I the $ not falling as at date? Explain the joke u were talking about.

Akshow:
Winning on paper but there's still hunger in the land. Mr Dele or whatever your silly name is, when last did you go to the market? Do u know how much a paintt of garri is in the market? Take several seat and stfu! Thanks

Oga, sometimes, try and shut up, okay?

Akshow:
Winning on paper but there's still hunger in the land. Mr Dele or whatever your silly name is, when last did you go to the market? Do u know how much a paintt of garri is in the market? Take several seat and stfu! Thanks

Wailing zombie always complaining of hunger... hahah

Djbond:
the logo on my belt

Giving F**ks For Free?