@Oga Intendy, no 52 week high today?

Abi NSE has finally overwhelmed us with its magic

Dear Valued investors,

Headline inflation declined for the eleventh consecutive month to 15.37% in December 2017

· Earlier today, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics released its December 2017 Inflation report which showed a moderation in headline inflation to 15.37% year on year (y/y) in December 2017, against 15.90% y/y in November 2017.

· We highlight that y/y movement in headline inflation was largely influenced by the slowdown in the rise in the Food sub index to 19.42% y/y in December 2017, from 20.30% y/y in November 2017.

· Furthermore, the rate of increase in the Food sub-index fell to +0.58% month on month (m/m) in December 2017, from 0.78% m/m in November 2017. This was the slowest increase in the Food sub-index in 2017.

· In our opinion, the slowdown in the increase in food prices in December 2017, which occurred against the seasonal increase in food prices, may not be unconnected with already high prices in the market, given that the food sub-index touched a eight year high of 20.32% y/y in September 2017, as well as weak consumer demand.

· The rise in prices in the Core sub-index (All items less farm produce) also slowed to 12.10% y/y in December 2017, from 12.20% in November 2017. On a m/m basis, the Core sub index increased by +0.51% in December 2017, against +0.77% in November 2017.



Outlook

· We believe the recently published December 2017 Inflation report may further confirm expectations for the rise in consumer prices to moderate in 2018, on the back of the high base effect of 2017 as well as the willingness of the administration to curtail any potential increase in energy and food prices given the negative impact it may have on re-election prospects.

· Our view remains that as we see headline inflation moderate towards the CBN’s target (c.11-12%) we are likely to see the Apex bank move to a more accommodative monetary policy.

· Nonetheless, we see the on-going scarcity of PMS, which contributed to the c.+18% m/m increase in the average PMS price paid by consumers in December 2017 (c.N172/litre), as a potential downside risk to our outlook, as well as disruptions to activities in the Agriculture sector and election spending.



Implications

· We believe the potential for a further decline in the rate of increase in consumer prices should be a positive for company performances in 2018, which should be a supportive of the equities market.

· Furthermore, the likely reduction in the benchmark interest rate and the proposed refinancing of USD2.5billion worth of local debt with offshore borrowings, should see yields in the fixed income space moderate, which should further support the equities market’s performance.

· Also, the potential harmonization between the FG’s expansionary fiscal policy and the CBN’s monetary policy could bode well for the funding of the c.N2trillion fiscal deficit at a lower cost. As a result, we could see the nation’s debt service to revenue ratio decline below c.45% currently, according to the Minister of Finance.

Please click to download a copy of the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics’ Inflation Report for December 2017.

Warm regards,
Investment Management & Research
Research@investment- one.com

The Nigerian equities market sustained its bullish trend today, as NSE-ASI appreciated by +2.17%.



Also, Market breadth index ended positive today with 46 stocks gaining against 16 stocks that declined.



FBNH (+10.21%) topped the gainers’ table while HONYFLOUR (-5.98%) had the worst performance.



ACCESS (+4.19%) was the most actively traded stock with c.158million units of shares worth c.N1.89bn.



Sector Performance

· NSE Banking Index: Gained +3.92%, following the advancement in FBNH (+10.21%), STERLNBANK (+10.00%), DIAMONDBNK (+9.96%), UBA (+5.00%) and ZENITHBANK (+4.72%).



· NSE Oil and Gas Index: Advanced by +1.13%, on the back of the gains in MOBIL (+5.00%), ETERNA (+4.88%) and FO (+1.75%).



· NSE Consumer Goods Index: The buy interest in DANGSUGAR (+4.98%), GUINNESS (+4.60%) and CHAMPION (+4.17%) drove the sector up by +0.35%.



· NSE Industrial Index: Shed -1.41%, largely driven by the loss in WAPCO (-3.37%).





Earnings Release



NIL.

Market Insight



The NSE-ASI printed in positive territory today, largely on account of the gains in Oil & Gas and some Banking names. Going forward, we highlight the potential for profit taking, which may drive the market to a negative close. However, this may present a decent entry opportunity into our recommended names in anticipation of the release of full year results later this quarter.



TOP PICKS: ACCESS, DANGCEM, GUARANTY, NB, NESTLE, UBA & ZENITHBANK






Warm regards,
Investment Management & Research
Research@investment- one.com

stocks with new 52 week highs
fbnh #12.85k
sterling bank #2.20k
diamond bank #2.87k
transcorp #2.32k
Wema #0.90k
unity bank #0.94k
Skyebank #0.99k
Fcmb #2.99k
fidelity bank #3.59k
ccnn #14.65k
Uba #12.60k
transcorp hotel #7.57k
caverton #1.76k
zenith #33.51k
mansard #2.67k
Guinness #114.00k
access #12.19k
stanbic #46.22k
dangote cement #260.00k
gtb #51.00k
Unilever #47.02k

Investnow2017:
Dear Valued investors,

Headline inflation declined for the eleventh consecutive month to 15.37% in December 2017

· Earlier today, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics released its December 2017 Inflation report which showed a moderation in headline inflation to 15.37% year on year (y/y) in December 2017, against 15.90% y/y in November 2017.

· We highlight that y/y movement in headline inflation was largely influenced by the slowdown in the rise in the Food sub index to 19.42% y/y in December 2017, from 20.30% y/y in November 2017.

· Furthermore, the rate of increase in the Food sub-index fell to +0.58% month on month (m/m) in December 2017, from 0.78% m/m in November 2017. This was the slowest increase in the Food sub-index in 2017.

· In our opinion, the slowdown in the increase in food prices in December 2017, which occurred against the seasonal increase in food prices, may not be unconnected with already high prices in the market, given that the food sub-index touched a eight year high of 20.32% y/y in September 2017, as well as weak consumer demand.

· The rise in prices in the Core sub-index (All items less farm produce) also slowed to 12.10% y/y in December 2017, from 12.20% in November 2017. On a m/m basis, the Core sub index increased by +0.51% in December 2017, against +0.77% in November 2017.



Outlook

· We believe the recently published December 2017 Inflation report may further confirm expectations for the rise in consumer prices to moderate in 2018, on the back of the high base effect of 2017 as well as the willingness of the administration to curtail any potential increase in energy and food prices given the negative impact it may have on re-election prospects.

· Our view remains that as we see headline inflation moderate towards the CBN’s target (c.11-12%) we are likely to see the Apex bank move to a more accommodative monetary policy.

· Nonetheless, we see the on-going scarcity of PMS, which contributed to the c.+18% m/m increase in the average PMS price paid by consumers in December 2017 (c.N172/litre), as a potential downside risk to our outlook, as well as disruptions to activities in the Agriculture sector and election spending.



Implications

· We believe the potential for a further decline in the rate of increase in consumer prices should be a positive for company performances in 2018, which should be a supportive of the equities market.

· Furthermore, the likely reduction in the benchmark interest rate and the proposed refinancing of USD2.5billion worth of local debt with offshore borrowings, should see yields in the fixed income space moderate, which should further support the equities market’s performance.

· Also, the potential harmonization between the FG’s expansionary fiscal policy and the CBN’s monetary policy could bode well for the funding of the c.N2trillion fiscal deficit at a lower cost. As a result, we could see the nation’s debt service to revenue ratio decline below c.45% currently, according to the Minister of Finance.

Please click to download a copy of the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics’ Inflation Report for December 2017.

Warm regards,
Investment Management & Research
Research@investment- one.com

The expectation of the 1st bolded above was one of the 3 core ingredient of the current BULL. ...Should the 2nd bolded come to fruition, it will bring about a RAGING BULL. ...And should the 3rd bolded follow thru, then expect a THUNDER BULL.
It's clear that with the Nigerian state, upside ROI potential is becoming bigger, while downside risk is fading with each passing day.
...And for those who think we are close to the saturation point, well, I sincerely hope u are not mistaking that with our starting point.
We ain't seen nothing yet folks. ...For in time, our dear Mr TIME shall surely put things in their right perspective !!.

When we finish with the banks, we move to the next sector

onegentleguy:


The expectation of the 1st bolded above was one of the 3 core ingredient of the current BULL. ...Should the 2nd bolded come to fruition, it will bring about a RAGING BULL. ...And should the 3rd bolded follow thru, then expect a THUNDER BULL.
It's clear that with the Nigerian state, upside ROI potential is becoming bigger, while downside risk is fading with each passing day.
...And for those who think we are close to the saturation point, well, I sincerely hope u are not mistaking that with our starting point.
We ain't seen nothing yet folks. ...For in time, our dear Mr TIME shall surely put things in their right perspective !!.

I share the same sentiments. Who knows this might lead to meeting the goal of zapping away from this country prior to the upcoming elections with jumbo-size loot No be only me waka come Nigeria

zap away or not, just remember to invest in Nigeria. It is the place to invest. Typical emerging economy with increasing middle class, especially with a population nearing 200m. That can only result in increased transaction and boom in economy when managed well. Whichever way, our NSE na Baba.
I am not in naija, but believe it, I am one this forum daily (though I do not often contribute...sorry guys, just shy). I do not invest kobo in the country I am, but in Nigeria. I understand NSE better than oyinbo exchange, and nobody tax me 20-40% of my profit. Plus I cannot make a third of what am making on NSE over here.

Investnow2017:


I share the same sentiments. Who knows this might lead to meeting the goal of zapping away from this country prior to the upcoming elections with jumbo-size loot No be only me waka come Nigeria

millo:
zap away or not, just remember to invest in Nigeria. It is the place to invest. Typical emerging economy with increasing middle class, especially with a population nearing 200m. That can only result in increased transaction and boom in economy when managed well. Whichever way, our NSE na Baba.
I am not in naija, but believe it, I am one this forum daily (though I do not often contribute...sorry guys, just shy). I do not invest kobo in the country I am, but in Nigeria. I understand NSE better than oyinbo exchange, and nobody tax me 20-40% of my profit. Plus I cannot make a third of what am making on NSE over here.

Without electricity, if i can find fuel to power my gen, no wahala. I met the longest fuel queue a while ago since i was born!

We love our country more when we are outside its shores

Majority tend to sell when things are cheap, and tend to buy when they are expensive.

Thanks!

Manonamission:


It is NOT. However, profit can still be made from a trade if you're lucky to exit with some gains. The reality is that some folks who have been held bound have waited for a time like this to escape. But by law, there must find a replacement for themselves. Are you the appointed one for the replacement?

Nigeria ranks second worst electricity supply nation in 2017
NWAFOR POLYCARP
16 JAN 2018
By Prince Okafor

Nigeria has been ranked as the second worst nation in power supply as power drops to 3,851 megawatts, MW.


The Spectator Index of the world’s worst electricity supply in 2017, stated this in a report released by @spectatorindex twitter handle, yesterday.

Of the 137 countries examined in the report, Yemen ranked as worst electricity supply nations in 2017, followed by Nigeria, Haiti, Lebanon, and Malawi.



electricity
Ethiopia occupied the 37 position, while South Africa and Algeria occupied the 41, 45 positions respectively.

Meanwhile, the Advisory Power Team report showed that the national grid capacity stood at 4, 000 Megawatts, MW.

The report noted that the average power sent out by the Electricity Generating Companies, GENCOs, on the 14th of January, stood at 3, 851.06mw, down by 168.58mw, recorded the previous day, adding that the peak generation averaged 4, 425mw, down by 5.5 percent.


According to the report, “On January 14 2018, average power sent out was 3,851MWh/hour (down by 169MWh/h from the previous day). 1437.9MW was not generated due to unavailability of gas.

“0MW was not generated due to unavailability of line infrastructure, while 680.5MW was not generated due to high frequency resulting from the unavailability of distribution infrastructure. 290MW was not generated due to unavailability of water.


“The power sector lost an estimated N1,121,000,000 on January 14, 2018, due to insufficient gas supply, distribution infrastructure, transmission infrastructure and water reserves.”

Consequently, a total of 63.1mw of energy was sent out from Omoku thermal power plant with a constraint of 16mw.

Alaoji National Independent Power Plant, NIPP, had a constraint of 240mw which affected the ability of the plant to generate commercial energy.

Energy sent out from Delta power plant on the same day was 340.76mw with a high-frequency constraint of 100 Hertz.

Jebba plant sent out 302.88mw of energy, while Shiroro had a water constraint of 290mw, along with high-frequency constraint of 95 Hz, limiting the sent out energy to 160.31mw, while Kainji dam sent out 359.49mw of power to the transmission company of Nigeria, TCN.


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leo1234:
Majority tend to sell when things are cheap, and tend to buy when they are expensive.

It will sure happen more this season. One reason is that not everyone has call up cash, you have to sell what you 'think' to be a slow earner to generate cash. And in the end, find yourself trapped almost eternally in one dead stock.

Its like scooping fuel from a burst petrol tanker

@Investnow2017
@Everyone

Am planning to sale my bonds to buy flourmill at current price . Do you think it smart Idea. the current yield is 15.54% per annum till 2020 bonds . Drop a little wisdom for me.

tritritri:
@Investnow2017
@Everyone

Am planning to sale my bonds to buy flourmill at current price . Do you think it smart Idea. the current yield is 15.54% per annum till 2020 bonds . Drop a little wisdom for me.

If I were the one, I would have sold since, even before typing this, even if it is 2018!
Nobody is ready to trek from Lagos to Maiduguri again...
I have a GUT FEELING that your cash in Flourmills will rise by at least 100% before that bond trap catch that 15.54%.
You can double your cash in Flourmills then go for that jalopy called bonds....

tritritri:
@Investnow2017
@Everyone

Am planning to sale my bonds to buy flourmill at current price . Do you think it smart Idea. the current yield is 15.54% per annum till 2020 bonds . Drop a little wisdom for me.

If you ask me and you did ask, i would say yes do. I had to break my fix income investment last week to land more in this dazzling market and so far i have recorded no less than 18% thus far.

I believe so much in the NSE at least for the first 3 quarters of this year 2018. Reason that many profile companies hold very great potentials for upside performance going by the consolidations that have apparently happened in 2017.

Additionally more and more local and FPI are squeezing their ways into the market.

Realistically some of the stocks had been trading at a reasonable discount to their fair values. Before it will become hyppy, the market in my opinion will turn in some decent 30 - 50% over and above present performance.

I believe i did not make a silly mistake breaking my 16.8% investment to register my presence in the NSE big time last. Remember our respected Oga Emma recommended Flourmill too. Although i do not have it in my portfolio, i believe in it though.

Unlike 2008, this time around i am being cautious. I buy stocks with three informed reasons:

1) Good numbers
2) Consistent Dividend paying history
3) Price Within its fair value bracket.

Hence even today, i went for Dangsugar, Fidelity, and Access. My broker could not get all my requested units, so i have asked to repeat at any current price tomorrow. Our local dog say why i like to follow big man with big belle be say if he no shit he go vomit If the stock no appreciate reasonably at least it will pay dividend.

If you can achieve up to 25% and above in NSE, why keep the bond?

Other respected NSE masters in the house can also please come to our aid. My 2 cents

@DeRuggedProf
@Investnow2017

Thanks.

Investnow2017:


Without electricity, if i can find fuel to power my gen, no wahala. I met the longest fuel queue a while ago since i was born!

We love our country more when we are outside its shores

What if it is because we suddenly realise we took some things for granted?
As far as the NSE is concerned, we are lucky to get away with all our 'loots'. In some others, you pay heavy taxes for capital gains from investing in stocks. In fact, Madam Kemi might torchlight that area soon.
I know of an exchange where your tax increases when you trade too often and lesser if you hold for long.

onegentleguy:


The expectation of the 1st bolded above was one of the 3 core ingredient of the current BULL. ...Should the 2nd bolded come to fruition, it will bring about a RAGING BULL. ...And should the 3rd bolded follow thru, then expect a THUNDER BULL.
It's clear that with the Nigerian state, upside ROI potential is becoming bigger, while downside risk is fading with each passing day.
...And for those who think we are close to the saturation point, well, I sincerely hope u are not mistaking that with our starting point.
We ain't seen nothing yet folks. ...For in time, our dear Mr TIME shall surely put things in their right perspective !!.

Companies have to defend their prices; company performances will NOT be able to defend the high share prices. This is MOMENTUM driven and not fundamental driven. Play loosely and get burned all of a sudden.

When everything and anything goes up, everything ad anything will come down, ESPECIALLY those that did not have any logical basis to go up in the first place.

let me start gidigbo

if WAPCO numbers good, with the current BULL and successful right share i expect the stock to have double in share

cc PETER

tritritri:
@Investnow2017
@Everyone

Am planning to sale my bonds to buy flourmill at current price . Do you think it smart Idea. the current yield is 15.54% per annum till 2020 bonds . Drop a little wisdom for me.

As it has been said, you should have divested from the bond market since and join in the bull ride... I remember when my TB mature and my banker asked if I wanted t do another one I looked her in the face and said NO!

She asked so where do u want to invest it; term deposit or bond? I said none of them. When she queried further I said I am taking everything to NSE.

The look she gave me was like is this man okay at all. This huge sum of money? I assured her that she will hear from me soon when I am through with mr. NSE...

Today, I have no regrets. I am happy I followed my GUT. Yours truly is sitting comfortably on handsome gains...

So, Bros, don't dull yasef coz there is no time to waste...

Manonamission:


What if it is because we suddenly realise we took some things for granted?
As far as the NSE is concerned, we are lucky to get away with all our 'loots'. In some others, you pay heavy taxes for capital gains from investing in stocks. In fact, Madam Kemi might torchlight that area soon.
I know of an exchange where your tax increases when you trade too often and lesser if you hold for long.

May she never find that torchlight oo.but we have some pastors in this house now.

few week ago i express my opinion on DF, that @12 it is not longer very best in the mkt, and i don't expect solo move of quick 100% to N24 because investor will like to go for very best with highly probabilities of 100%

as at today many stock has move 100% from that post but DF still at N16


pls take note; DF still selling at discount

BULL fair price hav over ride currentprice fair price on DIAMOND and FCMB

CP can u see urself

note CP fair price on both bank is 2.75

base on the latest report, champion bre, wema, unity are all selling at premium at the moment the sign that bull are much around

currentprice:
base on the latest report, champion bre, wema, unity are all selling at premium at the moment the sign that bull are much around

My dear Oga. Sincerely i must thank you for being so vibrant on this thread. May i quickly ask and may please oblige. What are your fair prices of the following stocks:

Fidelity
Dangsugar
Flourmill
Access
UBA

I respect your opinion. Whatever choice i make is my responsibility. Waiting

currentprice:
few week ago i express my opinion on DF, that @12 it is not longer very best in the mkt, and i don't expect solo move of quick 100% to N24 because investor will like to go for very best with highly probabilities of 100%

as at today many stock has move 100% from that post but DF still at N16


pls take note; DF still selling at discount

One of my bosses then used to say ' when you are done with the meat, find another meat, but don't waste saliva struggling to break the earlier bone'.
You have again pointed to a very tough, HUGE BUFFALO the lions have been mortally battling .....
It has already been severely wounded today. It will fall tomorrow from the massive wounds of today....
we the very old vultures have been audaciously hovering at a very close distance to steal a piece.....

SHIFTING CULTIVATION ALL THE WAY.....

currentprice:
let me start gidigbo

if WAPCO numbers good, with the current BULL and successful right share i expect the stock to have double in share

cc PETER

Let the sleeping dog lie. He sold his Access yesterday, hence the reprieve we got today. Don't provoke him to go and buy 1 unit of all the stocks on our exchange!

WHAT STOCK CAN I BUY IF I AM SO MUCH AFRAID OF THE MARKET- STOCK PHOBIA

Some people are still so much afraid of the market and considering the recent rise in prices, do not wish to come to the market at all.

How I wish for those people I can guaranty that I will bear their loss, but they will take the profit. Alas, this is not possible even if you have paid me for the recommendation. What I have done is to pick the brain of another set of experts that are very good at fundamental analysis, I have always ignore their recommendation as sometimes it is too late to pick stock for somebody like me who want to see immediate gain. However, when they are right, the gain is always substantial.

For this I will recommend Flour Mills Plc and some other companies in this sector. The only factor that can undo this sector is a rise in exchange rate, but the exchange rate is stable for now.

To further support this attached is the price chart for wheat, it has been going down down.

If after this someone is still afraid to invest in a company/sector like this!!! I have nothing to say again. Note that there are still companies in sectors like this and I will be releasing them from time to time.

This is expo of the highest order.

For our MSCI followings, there seems to be some issue with the site only the Friday position is still displayed (I hope my browsing adblocker is not the problem).

If you need further clarification on my posting, just e-mail via the forum.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

Investnow2017:


My dear Oga. Sincerely i must thank you for being so vibrant on this thread. May i quickly ask and may please oblige. What are your fair prices of the following stocks:

Fidelity
Dangsugar
Flourmill
Access
UBA

I respect your opinion. Whatever choice i make is my responsibility. Waiting

fidelity N5
Dangote sugar N23
Flourmil N34
Access N20
UBA N17

Flourmil price was based on Q2 , expecting Q3 by end of this month. with q2 the company is very healthy with good free cash flow. hope they can repeat same at 2nd half of the year end.
Flourmil suppose to move in price more with this BULL. the cause of not moving faster in my opinion was the plan right issues. the plan that owners of the shares as at the date last year qualified for the right but post dated buyer does not.

owners can SELL and still qualify but buyer will not. so what do you expect? i think d reasons offer plenty over bid sometime.

owner last year sold at N34/35 already sold his share but still on the company's register for specific number of shares at N27 dis GOOD deal
some interested buyer now refuse to buy waiting for the share price move near to N27 or below before buying. may be reason the price fell to N28 on the announcement but thank GOD to mr BULL.

mendes911:


Let the sleeping dog lie. He sold his Access yesterday, hence the reprieve we got today. Don't provoke him to go and buy 1 unit of all the stocks on our exchange!

Manonamission:


What if it is because we suddenly realise we took some things for granted?
As far as the NSE is concerned, we are lucky to get away with all our 'loots'. In some others, you pay heavy taxes for capital gains from investing in stocks. In fact, Madam Kemi might torchlight that area soon.
I know of an exchange where your tax increases when you trade too often and lesser if you hold for long.

Man On A Mission, my man; what you said is not in contention at all, but deciding to check out of the country prior to the upcoming elections is not a decision that is open to any question. It is my personal decision and it does not in anyway play down on the potentials and privileges we enjoy as Nigerians. I never said i was zapping never to return.

But you will agree with me that the carefree attitude of the govt over property tax is in itself a form of corruption and misgovernance. A system that allows an individual to own multiple fleets of choice cars and mushrooms of houses without paying back to society some portion of such wealth lacks sanity. Can you do that outside the shores of Nigeria.

Tolerance of this in itself breeds corruption. I know of a board member of a particular company in those days who had no less than 14 brand new cars parked right in his country home. 99% of the cars were gifts from local contractors whom he had awarded one form of contract or the other. If there was a system to make him pay tax on them, guess you know what his response to the givers would have been.

What do you say of a system that cannot use its potential and resources to generate income to better the environment and the living standards of the people? Should we be happy about such a depraved system? Is it to our advantage? Countries that squeeze out such mammoth taxes from their citizens guarantee at least some basic human amenities - good road with street lights, electricity (we call it 'light' because it dispels darkness accentuating the fact that the bulk of Nigerians actually want electricity mainly for the light it provides), affordable or housing system that can at least not leave a family on the street.

Such citizens would not pay a cent as tax if the revenue derived therefrom was not at least to a large extent judiciously applied to guarantee such basic necessities of life. After war-torn Yemen, Nigeria is next in the whole world as having distressing and exhausting electricity challenges! Sad, sad indeed