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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Investment / Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts (11447291 Views)
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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Krisuba: 10:29pm On May 15, 2018 |
Agbalowomeri: Chai. Please look into d crystal ball again ! If u still see this blow the alert whistle for me. It is better to return home wounded than to b back home dead!! |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aremso(m): 10:35pm On May 15, 2018 |
sellydion: still dey watch ooo me want the market to go down wella before I nados my small money for better stock. for now na watch watch I dey do. setting my eyes on my favourite stocks that have made me correct moni 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by soloniger(m): 12:42am On May 16, 2018 |
aremso:which ones be that? Start your recommendations for we due diligence ![]() |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by fxuser: 1:43am On May 16, 2018 |
onegentleguy: dont forget the IPO of d decade coming also ! |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Jejebabaa: 5:33am On May 16, 2018 |
fxuser: Hmmmmn, those IPO's no be small thing ooo. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by leo1234(m): 6:39am On May 16, 2018 |
sellydion: The Oracle will be glad to receive you. ![]() Welcome. 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Kolping: 7:02am On May 16, 2018 |
Nairametrics - May 16, 2018 Diamond Bank - Alone in the wild If your interim or full-year results are bad, then it’s typically the norm to release them on Friday, hours after the trading must have been closed. So, we were not surprised when Diamond Bank released its much awaited 2017 Full Year results a few minutes after close of trading on Friday. Just like we expected, the results were bad by most counts. Diamond Bank reported a loss after tax and before discontinued operations of N12.89 billion. Gains from the sale of its overseas subsidiaries (Diamond Bank UK) helped reduce the losses to N9 billion. The losses, as you would come to expect, were induced by a N56.8 billion provision for loans that have been impaired (gone bad). The last time Diamond Bank reported a loss was in 2011 where they reported a loss after tax of about N13.9 billion. Back then, the loss was induced by (you guessed right) another N55 billion loan impairment. Since 2011, Diamond Bank has now taken total loan provisions in excess of N290 billion. That’s an incredible accretion of capital from one of Nigeria’s oldest banks and one that you will expect to be vying for the Tier 1 status. So what went wrong? Poring over the results, we observed two major reasons for the disastrous result. Firstly, Diamond Bank reported that its loan to Geometric Power was impaired by about N45.7 billion. The bank granted Geometrics a N49.3 billion loan in the third and fourth quarter of 2017, contributing to the N56.8 billion loss recorded due to impairment. A brief background of Geometrics Power The company was founded by Professor Barth Nnaji in 2000 as one of the first private power companies in the country. However, it has been embroiled in one controversy or another over its power supply deals to Abia and Enugu States. This has resulted in loss of revenue, unpaid debts and rising overheads. Quite frankly, the company can’t meet its debt obligations. Diamond Bank is an equity partner in the project and owns about 25% of its equity valued at N2.49 billion which it has since been written off. Unfortunately, the bank still has about N49.3 billion in loans, granted since 2011, that has now essentially gone bad. The second problem Diamond Bank has is also with its non-interest income which dipped by 24% Year on Year (YoY). A closer look reveals that the company recorded a quarter on quarter dip in revenues dropping from N36,481 to N10,721, N9,178 and N 5,106 in the first, second, third and fourth quarters respectively. Fundamentally, the bank is struggling! Is the bank healthy? Diamond Bank reported a Capital Adequacy Ratio of 16.5%, 1.5% above the minimum 15% stipulated by the Central Bank. On this basis, one can safely infer that the bank is healthy. The bank has deposits in excess of a trillion and net assets of about N223 billion. For proper context, their balance sheet is still bigger than Stanbic’s and FCMB’s. However, Diamond Bank’s position as one of the leading Tier 2 banks is under threat. For example, despite its N223 billion net assets, its market capitalization is N44 billion. Now, compare this to Stanbic with N180 billion net assets and N492 billion market capitalization. Do I sell my shares? Ironically, I have a BUY rating for Diamond Bank with a long term outlook. I mean, how low can it still go? At 0.18 price to book ratio, the stock is cheap despite its weak fundamentals. However, I do not expect anyone with a short term outlook for their investment to hold on to this stock. Diamond Bank’s year low is around 88 kobo and that was about this time last year. Since then, the stock is up 90% and is likely to fall further as all the debris created by this results fall over. It is important to note that Stanbic Nominees sold down from about 11.99% to 8.52% resulting in a sale of over 800 million units. 3 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Kolping: 7:06am On May 16, 2018 |
Nairametrics - May 16, 2018 Forte Oil - “Uturn when I turn” Just a few years ago, Forte Oil referred to itself as Nigeria’s leading integrated energy company. From a mere downstream player, it veered into upstream of the oil and gas sector and then became one of the largest power generating companies in 2013 following the power privatisation program of 2013. However, it seems that the end is nigh for these once lofty plans. The CEO of the company, Akin Akinfenwa, informed investors of its decision to sell off its upstream and Ghanaian units, as well as its stake in the Geregu power plant. A perspective Geregu Forte owns 57% of Amperion Power Distribution Limited, BSG Resources Limited owns 38%, while Shangai Municipal Electric Power Company (SMEPC) has a 5% stake. Amperion Power Distribution Limited, in turn, owns 51% of Geregu Power Plc. In effect, Forte owns about 29% of Geregu Power Plc. Basically, the company’s stake in Geregu Power plant is not as substantial as they perhaps would want it to be. Spinning off the power plant will shrink its balance sheet by over N90 billion in the first instance. The impact on its status as a leading oil and gas player will be glaring and this could further impact its price to book ratio which is currently at 3.3x its Net assets. Forte Oil could also earn a substantial payoff if it decides to sell its stake in the power plant, which is currently worth about N10 billion in book value. About N2.5 billion of this amount could go to repaying bank loans which it used to fund the transaction in the first place. Ghana Forte Oil’s ill-fated sojourn in Ghana cost it over N700 million in impaired investment. Those familiar with the Ghanaian entity suggest that it was a bad move from the start and one which they probably should never have made. Thus, getting out now is perhaps the right move. Impact on Shares Let’s look at a few pointers. Without Geregu, Forte Oil loses about 76% of its book value. Profit margins also drop to just over 1% while return on equity will be a paltry 9.2%. With Geregu, it was about 9.4% and 22% respectively. Since we bank cash not statistics, the benefits of having a high margin business like Geregu Power Plant is defeated as it does not translate to cash for the company. In the short term, Forte Oil’s share price of N40 might appear expensive by the time it consummates the spin-off of Geregu. In the long run, the decision is perhaps a step in the right direction. Since they have decided to take this direction, we are better off turning with them. 5. Mutual Benefit - Breaking the rule Insurance firm, Mutual Benefits Assurance, late Friday released its financial statements for the year ended December 2017. Gross premium written increased from N12.1 billion in 2016 to N14.1 billion in 2017. The company made a profit before tax of N1.3 billion, as against a loss before tax of N1 billion. Profit after tax was also positive at N1 billion as against a N1.3 billion loss incurred in the prior year. Earnings per share was also positive at 13 kobo as against a loss of 17 kobo in 2016. The company has also proposed a final dividend of 2 kobo, its first in nearly a decade, amounting to a payout ratio of 15.3% The company last month hinted at the possibility of a dividend payment. Possible breach of rules? Companies are barred from paying dividends while they have negative retained earnings or accumulated losses. At the group level, Mutual Benefits has accumulated losses of N1 billion, while at the company level, it also has accumulated losses of N2.2 billion. We also rummaged through the interim report to see if there was any regulatory approval or court-ordered payment of dividends, we found none. There was also no cases of revenue from discontinued operations from which the company could pay dividends indicating that the dividend is not as a result of an extraordinary income. There was also no court ordered set off of accumulated losses against share premium of the company, which could have paved the way for dividends. One wonders why the shareholders of the company granted it approval to pay a dividend despite these losses. This singular act is a break from the rule. 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by veecovee: 7:09am On May 16, 2018 |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Chibuking81(m): 7:18am On May 16, 2018 |
http://allafrica.com/stories/201805160094.html Nigeria: NNPC Doubles Local Firms in Crude Lifting Contract List The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) has awarded 50 companies with contracts to buy Nigerian crude and more than half of them are local firms, foreign and Nigerian trading sources told Reuters. Of the total, 32 were local companies, doubling the number of awards to Nigerian firms compared to 2017. NNPC also awarded contracts to supply crude to 12 governments, although it was not clear how many of the deals would be handled by the companies already on the list of awards. NNPC awards the oil purchase contracts annually, but sources said the deals this year were for two years not one year. Contract awards were announced in January last year. Sources said the government may have delayed an announcement this time by several months as it sought to line up more local firms for awards, so it could drum up support for next year's election. The sources said a partial list of firms awarded deals emerged on Monday, with a final list coming out on Tuesday. This year's overall total of 50 foreign and local firms was more than the 39 listed in 2017. The list last year also included three bilateral government deals. NNPC did not respond to calls and emailed requests for comment. Nigeria's oil ministry said it produced more than 2 million barrels per day of crude and condensate in April. Exports were expected to average 1.8 million bpd in the first half of 2018, up from to 1.6 million bpd in 2017, loading programmes showed. The following is a preliminary list of winners: International trading firms and refiners: Augusta - Switzerland , BB Energy -Lebanon; Cepsa -Spain; Glencore - Switzerland based; HPCL - Indian refiner; Litasco -Trading arm of Russia's Lukoil; Mocoh -Switzerland; Petraco -Switzerland; Petrobras - Brazil; Sacoil- South Africa; SEER -South Africa's SacOil; Energy Equity Resources Ltd; Socar-Trading arm of Azerbaijan's Socar; Total- France. Others are : Trafigura -Switzerland; Vitol- Britain; Calson - Vitol/NNPC joint venture; Sonara Cameroon refining co; and ZR Energy . Nigerian companies are: AA Rano; Aipec; AMG; Arkleen; Barbedos; Bono Energy; Casiva; Cretus Emadeb; Eterna; Gladius Commodities; Hinstock; Leighton; Levene; Masters Energy; Matrix; MRS; North West; Oando; Sahara Group; Ocean Bed (Sahara trading subsidiary); Propetrol; Prudent; Setana; Setraco; Shoreline; Ultimate Gas; Voyage; West African gas; Zitts and Lords; Obat Oil & Gas; Duke Oil (NNPC subsidiary). On the deals with governments the countries in the deal are: China; India; South Africa; Turkey; Ivory Coast; Ghana; Liberia; Niger; Sierra Leone; Senegal; Togo and Malawi. Meanwhile, Brent crude yesterday hit a new high of over US$79 a barrel on data about higher demand in key markets such as China and OPEC's bullish Monthly Oil Market Report, which indicates that the global overhang in oil inventories is all but gone. The pending U.S. sanctions against Iran have also contributed to the price rise. Reuters |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Chibuking81(m): 7:27am On May 16, 2018 |
Eterna, MRS and Oando are the quoted coy that made the list. Which means, they still maintain the previous years contract winners, and added new foreign and local coy. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 7:31am On May 16, 2018 |
Kolping:I said it. Nairametrics guy has lots of diamonds in his portfolio. And he wants you guys to buy(not even a hold recommendation) For me, after reading an investors presentation from diamond bank itself, I cannot recommend it to anyone. Many things have equally gone bad. The worse is their NPL ratio which rose from 10% to 15.7% as at q1 2018. If the cbn dividend policy should continue, it means no dividend for next year. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Chibuking81(m): 7:49am On May 16, 2018 |
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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by wanaj0: 8:28am On May 16, 2018 |
Kolping: It cannot be true that they still gave GEOMETRIC Power almost N50bn in Q3 and Q4 2017! What for ![]() |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by wanaj0: 8:29am On May 16, 2018 |
Can Milost come and inject $300m into Diamond Bank ![]() |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 8:38am On May 16, 2018 |
wanaj0:Maybe he meant to say that they took impairment of 45billion in q3 and 4 for the said loan given in 2011. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mendes911: 8:52am On May 16, 2018 |
If Ugometrics could be among those waiting to sell Diamond Bank shares at N6.00 after release of FY17, then I doubt any body else made a bigger mistake. The deceit was well orchestrated. Wonders of NSE. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yok: 8:58am On May 16, 2018 |
MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 15 MAY 2018 The fund did not sell yesterday. Fund made some few purchases in the blue chips stock (no banking stock included)- Transcorp and Nigeria Breweries in the purchase list Generally the volume traded in the market is still thin. There is not likely to be substantial movement in the market. Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by fxuser: 9:04am On May 16, 2018 |
wanaj0: lollx . . MiLost $$ na Mi-Vanish |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 9:16am On May 16, 2018 |
yok:The fund I must confess is confused. They sell a stock on monday and buy back on tuesday. I thought they were leaving transcorp for good Pls may I be there broker? Their broker will just be chopping brokerage fee for doing nothing. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by samzepaparazi: 9:19am On May 16, 2018 |
Mpeace: I dont follow them again. The info is not useful. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by NextProdigy(m): 9:41am On May 16, 2018 |
Agbalowomeri: 0.76kobo |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by fxuser: 10:00am On May 16, 2018 |
samzepaparazi: ff dem years back , even kept excel sheets and all for a very long time #nbst 2 Useful observations IMO 1) wen they delete or add a stock, u want to be on d same side of the trade esp in d short term ! 2) wen u see cash building up without any stock movement . . things can happen sooner dan later 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Investnow2017: 10:10am On May 16, 2018 |
veecovee: RUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUBIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIISH. Read your Bible |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by rebekah2011(m): 10:13am On May 16, 2018 |
MTN ![]() ![]() ![]() fxuser: |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yok: 10:16am On May 16, 2018 |
MSCI GLOBAL FUND The fund hold so large a quantity that it cannot sell all at one time. Equally the fund is established to invest only in equities. Thus they cannot sell everything. If they make no capital gain, they have the dividend as the benefit for the investors. why they are good gauge for the market is that "they buy more when the market is going up, and sell more when the market is going down". Thus following them means selling more when market is going down or you stop investing: buy more when the market is going up, just like the fund so that you can participate in the gains. Equally when they are selling it means there is the probability of little capital gain, thus you reduce your expected profit in such period. Equally the activity of the fund is backed by heavy fundamental analysis behind the scene. Sorry if you need further explanation from my side let us continue to state our fears/opinion on the fund and will respond as time goes on. For me, this is part of my analysis and will continue to follow them, I was out of Diamond about 2 or over one month ago at NGN2.50 purely based on the quantity of the fund being sold by MSCI (I just state that I am no more in Oando equally on what the fund was doing), you may need to send me a mail maybe I send you some of the data that we used that has made our investing life so good based on having MSCI as part of our idea bank. Thanks. I love the interactions. 2 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 10:18am On May 16, 2018 |
Respite seems to be coming Diamond way o. ![]() |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 10:23am On May 16, 2018 |
Mcy56:They better return it to 2. Thats where it belongs. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 10:24am On May 16, 2018 |
GTay:We're in winter! There is a great probability that the market is going to be bearish for like a year. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 10:24am On May 16, 2018 |
Mpeace:Will be better o. That fall must not last for a week, it will give some people HBP. At least let them stabilize the price first. ![]() |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 10:36am On May 16, 2018 |
Mcy56:No worry about me, I don buy enough medicine. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 10:41am On May 16, 2018 |
Zenith, 27.70 |
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