PETERiCHY:
SELL in MAY and GO AWAY
Una no gree now Mr. Market is slapping all man

*ThE OcyToPuS*

I agree with u on that(sell in may and go away). In the next four weeks, I see prices of stock falling down to more than 30% their current price

yom2:
it does to some degree bros. with internet rumours spread faster. either fake or true

Don't always believe this.

Start now and run down Nestlé and let's see where you will get to.

arduino:
I see RED everywhere.....Market don tank

Feel the Brutality!

Mcy56:

After the darkest night comes the dawn of a new day.

Dawn might be worse than the darkest hour.

We have witnessed increased sales of blood pressure medicines in the last 2weeks. It is obvious depression might join

swilo:


Unbelievable.

And the big bags in transcorp have not started selling...

And why would they be selling sir?

mendes911:
Message from Prophet Utuocha:

Grandpapa Bear Bear shall be upon NSE by next week. After that, that much awaited bull will take over.

Is this the Grandpapa Bear Bear? I doubt. Waiting for the likes of GTB and Zenith to join the "reddish" gangs, then we will know.

mendes911:
Is this the Grandpapa Bear Bear? I doubt. Waiting for the likes of GTB and Zenith to join the "reddish" gangs, then we will know.

Now I remember! It's you that brought message from your prophet not rationamind, sorry I mean not dwizeone

mendes911:
Dawn might be worse than the darkest hour.

I don't think so. There are good news all around the corner. Make una dey exercise faith sometimes now.

Mcy56:

Now I remember! It's you that brought message from your prophet not rationamind, sorry I mean not dwizeone

The bigger issue now is when/whether to position for a quick 10% -15%. I have cut off all ties with my village people and I do not want to be the one inviting them this time around.

If only Sir Peter will be kind enough to tell us when he's completely out. That's a good measure!

Mcy56:


I don't think so. There are good news all around the corner. Make una dey exercise faith sometimes now.

There are forces that might let you be during the darkest hour (being that it's too dark for them to see you properly) and then unleash terror once it's day. You can never tell.

That January bull long was unnecessarily too long, the distortion no get part 2!

mendes911:
The bigger issue now is when/whether to position for a quick 10% -15%. I have cut off all ties with my village people and I do not want to be the one inviting them this time around.
If only Sir Peter will be kind enough to tell us when he's completely out. That's a good measure!

You can start positioning this week now or you dont believe your Prophet again?
Peter already told you to sell in May and never look back until after the election, even if you sight mini or major bull

Buyers already turning up for transcorp, Zenith, FBNH

Mcy56:

You can start positioning this week now or you dont believe your Prophet again?
Peter already told you to sell in May and never look back until after the election, even if you sight mini or major bull

Buyers already turning up for transcorp, Zenith, FBNH

The "prophet" didn't say anything about when the bears will go away!

mendes911:
The "prophet" didn't say anything about when the bears will go away!

........... You want him to tell you everything in details abi?

Btw, those who doesn't know how to play the game should be careful of IkejaHotel....... my opinion though.

Mcy56:

........... You want him to tell you everything in details abi?

Btw, those who doesn't know how to play the game should be careful of IkejaHotel....... my opinion though.

That prophet is also trapped currently. There's no foolproof in this game.

mendes911:
That prophet is also trapped currently. There's no foolproof in this game.

Lol.

PETERiCHY:


I made it clear few weeks ago that the BARGAIN has left buying @circaN1:65 and circa N1:90k Trade zone.

The next VALUE zone is buying circa N1:45 and selling @Circa N1:60k.
And so the price will keep diminishing till after ELECTION.

For now nothing to EXCITE the market so if you CAN'T take the HEAT better stay OFF the KITCHEN.

*ThE OcToPuS*

As predicted earlier Transcorp finally touched the next VALUE ZONE today.

"No hurry in life many have GONE"

*ThE OcToPuS*

This bear period, bear is truly in control.

Anyone that enter Ikeja hotel above today prince, is on his own. It has finally reaches above its fair price.

Even Fidelity 2017 FY Earning is more better in value than them, when compared with their current price.

mendes911:


That prophet is also trapped currently. There's no foolproof in this game.

I perceived it yesterday when all the Ogas started throwing advice around free of charge.

It is usually challenging when you know there will be bull next week and you are 2% from your stop loss, with at least 1 or 2 more days of bears.

for the caverton hopefuls:
cc: onegentleguy

If you are told to draw up a list of the top 5 performing stocks in Nigeria this year, my bet is that Caverton will be high up on that list. In fact, asides from CCNN, Caverton has posted the best return year to date this year, boasting of a 100% capital appreciation. Move your start point to a year ago, then the returns are even better at a whopping 187% capital appreciation.

Things haven’t always been this good for Caverton. Four years ago this week, Caverton listed on the Nigerian stock exchange at a share price of N9.5. However, by the close of trading time on that fateful Tuesday the 20th of May, 2014, the share price had plummeted by a whopping 18% to close at N7.76. I remember calling this a baptism of fire for a stock that had so many prospects.

The stock was to face its lowest point two years ago after the company reported profits of N604 million, a 5-year low at the time. The fact that the market was in the midst of one of the greatest economic induced sell-off in history worsened matters. Its share price also nosedived, dropping to as low as 69 kobo per share in January 2017. This would be the lowest share price for Caverton’s 4-year history on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Rise to the top

In 2017, Caverton reported a profit after tax of N2.5 billion, a 330% increase year on year. Caverton’s rise to the very top started in the second half of 2017 after its half-year pre-tax profits came in at N938 million, compared to a loss before tax of N2.3 billion a year earlier. By the third quarter, it had improved to N1.89 billion and investors started to take notice.

Investors’ appetites widened, helping the share price rise from N0.92 to about N1.68 by October 2018. By the end of December, the share price had dropped to about N1.29, only to rise to a year high of N3 in February 2018. Investors had helped the stock to one of its best rallies as they awaited an impressive 2017 result.

Fundamentals

Caverton did not disappoint as it reported a profit after tax of N2.5 billion, a 330% increase year on year. The company’s top line revenue also rose 6.4% to close at N20.4 billion. Profit margin was also 12.6%, compared to 3.1% a year earlier and return on average equity hit 18%, compared to a 3-year average of 9.6%. The company also rewarded shareholders with a dividend per share of 15 kobo after going through 2016 without one.

How it makes money

The company makes money by providing helicopter and marine services to operators in the Oil and Gas industry and other sundry customers. Last year alone, it reported revenues of N20 billion from providing helicopter services to Oil and Gas Companies, about 98% of revenues. Caverton also earns most of its revenues in forex. By most standards, 2017 would seem a fabulous year for Caverton, until you look deeper.

Magic 2017

For Caverton, 2017 was a particularly great year for three major reasons. Firstly, it earned a net foreign exchange gain of N960 million, compared to a N2.2 billion loss a year earlier. Secondly, it also wrote back an accrued interest of N375 million and then finally, it earned a profit on disposal on PPE of N442 million. These combined earnings helped Caverton to have what was a magic 2017.

Take away these earnings, then you realise that Caverton still faces the same problems it had in 2016, if not worse. For example, gross profit margins were lower in 2017 compared to 2016, while operating expenses, as a percentage of gross profit, rose to 55% from 42% (in 2016). Revenues are still not at the 2014 levels of 25 billion when oil prices were at all-time highs.

Caverton’s moat as perhaps the dominant service provider of helicopters to upstream Oil and Gas companies is ironically its biggest challenge. If oil price heads south again, Caverton will be back to a well too familiar past. It once planned to extend its services to the Nigerian Airforce but dwindling government revenue has killed that idea.

Silver Lining

This analysis is not aimed at pouring cold water on Caverton’s results. Rather, it is to clearly outline the profit drivers for the company and highlight one-time events that can often mask inherent challenges in seemingly blistering results.


Caverton’s 2018 first quarter results is perhaps a better reflection of where things stand for the company. Pre-tax profits are up 34% despite a 10% revenue drop. They also explained that the reason for the drop in revenues was because they had not renewed their contracts in the first quarter of the year. Nairametrics reported recently that Caverton had signed the contract with Chevron/NNPC JV which commenced operations on April 1st, 2018.

The company achieved this by having a 20.6% drop in the cost of sales. The company disclosed that it recorded a major drop in aircraft rentals, aviation parts, and fuel, as well as cut in aircrew salaries. If it keeps the cost as low as it did in the first quarter of 2018, then we expect Caverton to sustain double-digit earnings per share growth.

Other risks

Caverton carries external debts of about N16.3 billion, out of which $10 million is to Access Bank, $17.9 million to BOI/Access Bank and $2.5 million to Heritage Bank. With a debt to equity ratio of over 100%, it is likely that Caverton will raise equity sometime this year.
If it does so, then expect earnings per share at the end of the year to fall perhaps lower than it did in 2017. This, of course, can be mitigated by the fact that its price to earnings ratio is still as low at 3x, despite its much acclaimed 187% capital appreciation in one year.

Buy sell or hold[b][/b]

Caverton is a mixed bag of upsides and downsides and it’s difficult to decide if this is a stock to buy, sell or hold. Several headwinds lie ahead for this company and the risk of a future capital raise is difficult to ignore. However, even if it were to raise N10 billion in this market at a price of N3 per share, it will nearly have to double its outstanding shares.

Thus, I believe that the company will focus on creating the right sentiments and momentum that could drive the share price to around N5 before it decides to raise equity. Based on this, my sentiments swing towards a buy for this stock. With fundamentals assured to improve on the back of its ability to renew juicy contracts, Caverton will grow its profits and win investor sentiments.

Courtesy: nairametrics.com

swilo:


I perceived it yesterday when all the Ogas started throwing advice around free of charge.

It is usually challenging when you know there will be bull next week and you are 2% from your stop loss, with at least 1 or 2 more days of bears.

To whom is this stone for?

kolaish:
for the caverton hopefuls:
cc: onegentleguy

If you are told to draw up a list of the top 5 performing stocks in Nigeria this year, my bet is that Caverton will be high up on that list. In fact, asides from CCNN, Caverton has posted the best return year to date this year, boasting of a 100% capital appreciation. Move your start point to a year ago, then the returns are even better at a whopping 187% capital appreciation.

Things haven’t always been this good for Caverton. Four years ago this week, Caverton listed on the Nigerian stock exchange at a share price of N9.5. However, by the close of trading time on that fateful Tuesday the 20th of May, 2014, the share price had plummeted by a whopping 18% to close at N7.76. I remember calling this a baptism of fire for a stock that had so many prospects.

The stock was to face its lowest point two years ago after the company reported profits of N604 million, a 5-year low at the time. The fact that the market was in the midst of one of the greatest economic induced sell-off in history worsened matters. Its share price also nosedived, dropping to as low as 69 kobo per share in January 2017. This would be the lowest share price for Caverton’s 4-year history on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Rise to the top

In 2017, Caverton reported a profit after tax of N2.5 billion, a 330% increase year on year. Caverton’s rise to the very top started in the second half of 2017 after its half-year pre-tax profits came in at N938 million, compared to a loss before tax of N2.3 billion a year earlier. By the third quarter, it had improved to N1.89 billion and investors started to take notice.

Investors’ appetites widened, helping the share price rise from N0.92 to about N1.68 by October 2018. By the end of December, the share price had dropped to about N1.29, only to rise to a year high of N3 in February 2018. Investors had helped the stock to one of its best rallies as they awaited an impressive 2017 result.

Fundamentals

Caverton did not disappoint as it reported a profit after tax of N2.5 billion, a 330% increase year on year. The company’s top line revenue also rose 6.4% to close at N20.4 billion. Profit margin was also 12.6%, compared to 3.1% a year earlier and return on average equity hit 18%, compared to a 3-year average of 9.6%. The company also rewarded shareholders with a dividend per share of 15 kobo after going through 2016 without one.

How it makes money

The company makes money by providing helicopter and marine services to operators in the Oil and Gas industry and other sundry customers. Last year alone, it reported revenues of N20 billion from providing helicopter services to Oil and Gas Companies, about 98% of revenues. Caverton also earns most of its revenues in forex. By most standards, 2017 would seem a fabulous year for Caverton, until you look deeper.

Magic 2017

For Caverton, 2017 was a particularly great year for three major reasons. Firstly, it earned a net foreign exchange gain of N960 million, compared to a N2.2 billion loss a year earlier. Secondly, it also wrote back an accrued interest of N375 million and then finally, it earned a profit on disposal on PPE of N442 million. These combined earnings helped Caverton to have what was a magic 2017.

Take away these earnings, then you realise that Caverton still faces the same problems it had in 2016, if not worse. For example, gross profit margins were lower in 2017 compared to 2016, while operating expenses, as a percentage of gross profit, rose to 55% from 42% (in 2016). Revenues are still not at the 2014 levels of 25 billion when oil prices were at all-time highs.

Caverton’s moat as perhaps the dominant service provider of helicopters to upstream Oil and Gas companies is ironically its biggest challenge. If oil price heads south again, Caverton will be back to a well too familiar past. It once planned to extend its services to the Nigerian Airforce but dwindling government revenue has killed that idea.

Silver Lining

This analysis is not aimed at pouring cold water on Caverton’s results. Rather, it is to clearly outline the profit drivers for the company and highlight one-time events that can often mask inherent challenges in seemingly blistering results.


Caverton’s 2018 first quarter results is perhaps a better reflection of where things stand for the company. Pre-tax profits are up 34% despite a 10% revenue drop. They also explained that the reason for the drop in revenues was because they had not renewed their contracts in the first quarter of the year. Nairametrics reported recently that Caverton had signed the contract with Chevron/NNPC JV which commenced operations on April 1st, 2018.

The company achieved this by having a 20.6% drop in the cost of sales. The company disclosed that it recorded a major drop in aircraft rentals, aviation parts, and fuel, as well as cut in aircrew salaries. If it keeps the cost as low as it did in the first quarter of 2018, then we expect Caverton to sustain double-digit earnings per share growth.

Other risks

Caverton carries external debts of about N16.3 billion, out of which $10 million is to Access Bank, $17.9 million to BOI/Access Bank and $2.5 million to Heritage Bank. With a debt to equity ratio of over 100%, it is likely that Caverton will raise equity sometime this year.
If it does so, then expect earnings per share at the end of the year to fall perhaps lower than it did in 2017. This, of course, can be mitigated by the fact that its price to earnings ratio is still as low at 3x, despite its much acclaimed 187% capital appreciation in one year.

Buy sell or hold[b][/b]

Caverton is a mixed bag of upsides and downsides and it’s difficult to decide if this is a stock to buy, sell or hold. Several headwinds lie ahead for this company and the risk of a future capital raise is difficult to ignore. However, even if it were to raise N10 billion in this market at a price of N3 per share, it will nearly have to double its outstanding shares.

Thus, I believe that the company will focus on creating the right sentiments and momentum that could drive the share price to around N5 before it decides to raise equity. Based on this, my sentiments swing towards a buy for this stock. With fundamentals assured to improve on the back of its ability to renew juicy contracts, Caverton will grow its profits and win investor sentiments.

Courtesy: nairametrics.com

Onegentleguy's anti missile defence system activated....

Sir, do not bet against the stock oooo. It can reach N5

Chibuking81:
Anyone that enter Ikeja hotel above today prince, is on his own. It has finally reaches above its fair price.

Even Fidelity 2017 FY Earning is more better in value than them, when compared with their current price.

mendes911:


To whom is this stone for?

Oga Mendes911,

Not a stone o, this is what I saw when I opened my CAVERTON / MAYBAKER portfolio today o. I am not sure what to do with my stop loss right now.

A general bear will be rewarded with a general bull. Selling tomorrow because of stop loss seems to be more like a loss than capital preservation

Report reaching us now says that the much anticipated BULL has been Kidnapped by Mr. BEAR.

Only God knows where he's been taking to

The fear really is what will happen when GTBank and Zenith Bank joins the race

it not surprise anymore with the not better than expect DF Q1 result.

it look like only good than expected Q2 can safe this stock.

chai! this stock tht make us rich last year

kolaish:
for the caverton hopefuls:
cc: onegentleguy

If you are told to draw up a list of the top 5 performing stocks in Nigeria this year, my bet is that Caverton will be high up on that list. In fact, asides from CCNN, Caverton has posted the best return year to date this year, boasting of a 100% capital appreciation. Move your start point to a year ago, then the returns are even better at a whopping 187% capital appreciation.

Things haven’t always been this good for Caverton. Four years ago this week, Caverton listed on the Nigerian stock exchange at a share price of N9.5. However, by the close of trading time on that fateful Tuesday the 20th of May, 2014, the share price had plummeted by a whopping 18% to close at N7.76. I remember calling this a baptism of fire for a stock that had so many prospects.

The stock was to face its lowest point two years ago after the company reported profits of N604 million, a 5-year low at the time. The fact that the market was in the midst of one of the greatest economic induced sell-off in history worsened matters. Its share price also nosedived, dropping to as low as 69 kobo per share in January 2017. This would be the lowest share price for Caverton’s 4-year history on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Rise to the top

In 2017, Caverton reported a profit after tax of N2.5 billion, a 330% increase year on year. Caverton’s rise to the very top started in the second half of 2017 after its half-year pre-tax profits came in at N938 million, compared to a loss before tax of N2.3 billion a year earlier. By the third quarter, it had improved to N1.89 billion and investors started to take notice.

Investors’ appetites widened, helping the share price rise from N0.92 to about N1.68 by October 2018. By the end of December, the share price had dropped to about N1.29, only to rise to a year high of N3 in February 2018. Investors had helped the stock to one of its best rallies as they awaited an impressive 2017 result.

Fundamentals

Caverton did not disappoint as it reported a profit after tax of N2.5 billion, a 330% increase year on year. The company’s top line revenue also rose 6.4% to close at N20.4 billion. Profit margin was also 12.6%, compared to 3.1% a year earlier and return on average equity hit 18%, compared to a 3-year average of 9.6%. The company also rewarded shareholders with a dividend per share of 15 kobo after going through 2016 without one.

How it makes money

The company makes money by providing helicopter and marine services to operators in the Oil and Gas industry and other sundry customers. Last year alone, it reported revenues of N20 billion from providing helicopter services to Oil and Gas Companies, about 98% of revenues. Caverton also earns most of its revenues in forex. By most standards, 2017 would seem a fabulous year for Caverton, until you look deeper.

Magic 2017

For Caverton, 2017 was a particularly great year for three major reasons. Firstly, it earned a net foreign exchange gain of N960 million, compared to a N2.2 billion loss a year earlier. Secondly, it also wrote back an accrued interest of N375 million and then finally, it earned a profit on disposal on PPE of N442 million. These combined earnings helped Caverton to have what was a magic 2017.

Take away these earnings, then you realise that Caverton still faces the same problems it had in 2016, if not worse. For example, gross profit margins were lower in 2017 compared to 2016, while operating expenses, as a percentage of gross profit, rose to 55% from 42% (in 2016). Revenues are still not at the 2014 levels of 25 billion when oil prices were at all-time highs.

Caverton’s moat as perhaps the dominant service provider of helicopters to upstream Oil and Gas companies is ironically its biggest challenge. If oil price heads south again, Caverton will be back to a well too familiar past. It once planned to extend its services to the Nigerian Airforce but dwindling government revenue has killed that idea.

Silver Lining

This analysis is not aimed at pouring cold water on Caverton’s results. Rather, it is to clearly outline the profit drivers for the company and highlight one-time events that can often mask inherent challenges in seemingly blistering results.


Caverton’s 2018 first quarter results is perhaps a better reflection of where things stand for the company. Pre-tax profits are up 34% despite a 10% revenue drop. They also explained that the reason for the drop in revenues was because they had not renewed their contracts in the first quarter of the year. Nairametrics reported recently that Caverton had signed the contract with Chevron/NNPC JV which commenced operations on April 1st, 2018.

The company achieved this by having a 20.6% drop in the cost of sales. The company disclosed that it recorded a major drop in aircraft rentals, aviation parts, and fuel, as well as cut in aircrew salaries. If it keeps the cost as low as it did in the first quarter of 2018, then we expect Caverton to sustain double-digit earnings per share growth.

Other risks

Caverton carries external debts of about N16.3 billion, out of which $10 million is to Access Bank, $17.9 million to BOI/Access Bank and $2.5 million to Heritage Bank. With a debt to equity ratio of over 100%, it is likely that Caverton will raise equity sometime this year.
If it does so, then expect earnings per share at the end of the year to fall perhaps lower than it did in 2017. This, of course, can be mitigated by the fact that its price to earnings ratio is still as low at 3x, despite its much acclaimed 187% capital appreciation in one year.

Buy sell or hold[b][/b]

Caverton is a mixed bag of upsides and downsides and it’s difficult to decide if this is a stock to buy, sell or hold. Several headwinds lie ahead for this company and the risk of a future capital raise is difficult to ignore. However, even if it were to raise N10 billion in this market at a price of N3 per share, it will nearly have to double its outstanding shares.

Thus, I believe that the company will focus on creating the right sentiments and momentum that could drive the share price to around N5 before it decides to raise equity. Based on this, my sentiments swing towards a buy for this stock. With fundamentals assured to improve on the back of its ability to renew juicy contracts, Caverton will grow its profits and win investor sentiments.

Courtesy: nairametrics.com

On the issue of debt, Nairametrics probably didn't take recourse to a few indices.
...with respect to that, here are a few highlight from my ealier analysis on the coy:

▪ CAVERTON has the potential to offset any short term liability without an iota of struggle as can be seen from its very healthy current ratio of 1.14x, which makes up for any risk from the high 85.4% and 61% debt to equity and gearing ratio respectively.
Again the company has the capacity to service its interest bearing liabilities as seen by its very strong interest coverage of 50.42x which is by miles above the industrial average of 5.72x. The company can even access more debt if required.
▪ The company is also showing a strong line of profitability with ROAE romping up so nicely from 4.6% to 16.6%. ...an alarming 257.5% increase. This clearly shows management effectiveness with using more debt in acquiring real value.
▪ Management also showed great efficiency as seen by their Equity turnover. ...while Equity multiplier, a ratio which weighs/compares how a coys asset can conveniently replicate equity, came in good at 2.93. Put in a better way, CAVERTONs asset can make up for its equity by 2.93 times (multiplier). ...that to me, is damn remarkable !!

Note the part in bold.
That said, his (Nairametrics) take on the company is also largely in line with our analysis, estimates and projections.

Enough said.

Flour mill was seen around #31.95 today, this bear is not small one ooo, Zenith around #27.70, GTB around #42+.
House, I believed today lower price present a buy recommendations?
Or will Bear drive more lower. Mr Peter how did you see today bear?

Anyway am seen Zenith heading toward #27 junction.

IchimokuPilot:



Onegentleguy's anti missile defence system activated....

...Ichimukully activated !!
We are together my dear.