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Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts - Investment (3667) - Nairaland

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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mendes911: 12:09pm On Jun 14, 2018
Agbalowomeri:
Na only Mushin people enter market today grin

Value traded so far today is about 700m. This one worse pass Mushin people.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by fxuser: 12:10pm On Jun 14, 2018
Champion Brew
- not d best in terms of liquidity for me
- SP back at a long term support / demand area within a range mkt
- wt some +ve rsi & macd div sig bearish fatigue
- cud form a triple bottom in wks to come .. who knows
any thots ?
https://invst.ly/7qeb5

#JustObserving
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by fxuser: 12:13pm On Jun 14, 2018
Wapco
- analyst says sell , chart didn't get d memo


#RandomJives
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by fxuser: 12:15pm On Jun 14, 2018
Access
- breaking below last weak close !
- d 3 of dem can't hold above n11

#movingOn
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Ekpoma25: 12:50pm On Jun 14, 2018
5 Ways a Fed Rate Hike Could Impact Emerging Markets
BY JUSTIN KUEPPER

The Federal Reserve has a tremendous impact on the U.S. stock market through its various monetary policy tools. But few investors realize its impact on the global financial markets through the valuation of the U.S. dollar. Since the dollar is a global reserve currency, changes in its valuation can have a tremendous impact on everything from foreign reserves at global central banks to corporate balance sheets containing dollar-denominated debt.


Here are five ways the Federal Reserve could impact emerging markets and what it means for investors in these markets.

1. Rise in Corporate Defaults
Many emerging market companies have benefited from low U.S. interest rates by borrowing in dollars and repaying debt with stronger local currencies. According to the Bank for International Settlements, there was about $1.1 trillion in dollar-denominated bonds issued by non-bank emerging market companies outstanding in Q3 2015 compared to just $509 billion at the end of 2008 – a significant increase during a period of low-interest rates.

Higher U.S. interest rates could make these debts more difficult to service. For example, Brazil’s currency fell to record lows against the dollar in 2015, which made it difficult for companies generating revenue to repay debt in U.S. dollars. These increased costs could lead to a wave of corporate defaults that could hurt the emerging market corporate bond market and ETFs like the iShares Emerging Markets Corporate Bond ETF (CEMB).

2. Lower Foreign Investment
Many emerging markets have seen significant foreign direct investment since the 2008 global financial crisis. With U.S. and European bond yields at record lows, investors flocked into higher yielding emerging market stocks and bonds to bolster their portfolios yields. These emerging market economies became reliant on this steady increase in foreign investment to drive economic growth and witnessed significant expansion over the past several years.

Higher interest rates could draw more investors back to the U.S. and spark an outflow of capital from emerging markets. This lower foreign investment could put the brakes on economic growth in many economies that rely on such investments. The so-called Fragile Five economies have been deemed the most vulnerable to this kind of downturn – Turkey, Brazil, India, South Africa, and Indonesia – and warrant particularly close attention.

3. Falling Currency Values
Many emerging markets have experienced a significant appreciation in their currencies. For example, the USD/ZAR currency pair rose from less than 10.00 in 2012 to a high of 17.00 in January 2016 as the U.S. dollar depreciated against the South African rand. South Africa was able to leverage this increase in its currency valuation to borrow more U.S. dollars to finance various growth initiatives and increase government spending.

The bad news is that the rand – and other emerging market currencies – have already started to fall amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates. These dynamics could make it more difficult for countries like South Africa to repay their dollar-denominated debts – the same issue faced by many private companies.


The only solution may be to let its currency fall in value, which could help exports but hurt investment.

4. Sovereign Rating Pressure
Many emerging market governments took advantage of low U.S. interest rates to borrow in U.S. dollars. For example, South Africa borrowed heavily when the dollar was low and used the proceeds to help finance its growth and budgetary needs. These dynamics helped many emerging markets outperform over the past several years, but the strategy could come back to haunt them when the dollar rises in value and these debts become more expensive.

South Africa has one of the largest external financing requirements in the world, which means that its currency reserves are smaller than the amount needed to service its foreign debt and pay for imports. These dynamics could lead to a lower credit rating and higher borrowing cost moving forward if the U.S. dollar appreciates in value.

A higher borrowing cost could make it more difficult to obtain the funding needed to invest in growth.

5. Lower Dollar Commodities
Many emerging market economies are reliant on commodities to drive their economic growth. For instance, Brazil and Russia depend heavily on crude oil and natural gas prices, while Chile and Peru rely extensively on copper and other hard commodities. Commodity prices have risen over the past several years since they are priced in U.S. dollars and more dollars were required to purchase the same ‘value’ of commodities, putting a higher dollar value on them.

If the dollar rises in value, these dynamics could reverse and commodities could see further downward pressure. This is bad news for emerging markets because most commodities are sold in U.S. dollars, which means that they will generate less revenue in real terms. Less revenue could translate to slower growth and lower valuations for commodity-focused companies operating in these key emerging market economies.

The Bottom Line
The Federal Reserve has a significant impact on domestic markets, but many investors fail to realize it's equally important impact on foreign markets. Emerging markets are particularly vulnerable to these changes in interest rates and the dollar’s valuation relative to local currencies. The upshot is that the Federal Reserve has acknowledged this and does incorporate global concerns into its monetary policy decisions – but that doesn’t mean it won’t have an impact.

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yom2(m): 1:26pm On Jun 14, 2018
when did aiico left first registrars to united securities?
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by lafencer: 1:57pm On Jun 14, 2018
As regards the TOE companies, there have been huge volumes of late. First, it was UBA, then AFRIPUD, now its UCAP. TRANSCORP seems to be TOEing in that direction too. grin. Any thoughts please?

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 2:10pm On Jun 14, 2018
lafencer:
As regards the TOE companies, there have been huge volumes of late. First, it was UBA, then AFRIPUD, now its UCAP. TRANSCORP seems to be TOEing in that direction too. grin. Any thoughts please?

Baba T wan retire lol grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yom2(m): 2:14pm On Jun 14, 2018
Ekpoma25:
5 Ways a Fed Rate Hike Could Impact Emerging Markets
BY JUSTIN KUEPPER

The Federal Reserve has a tremendous impact on the U.S. stock market through its various monetary policy tools. But few investors realize its impact on the global financial markets through the valuation of the U.S. dollar. Since the dollar is a global reserve currency, changes in its valuation can have a tremendous impact on everything from foreign reserves at global central banks to corporate balance sheets containing dollar-denominated debt.


Here are five ways the Federal Reserve could impact emerging markets and what it means for investors in these markets.

1. Rise in Corporate Defaults
Many emerging market companies have benefited from low U.S. interest rates by borrowing in dollars and repaying debt with stronger local currencies. According to the Bank for International Settlements, there was about $1.1 trillion in dollar-denominated bonds issued by non-bank emerging market companies outstanding in Q3 2015 compared to just $509 billion at the end of 2008 – a significant increase during a period of low-interest rates.

Higher U.S. interest rates could make these debts more difficult to service. For example, Brazil’s currency fell to record lows against the dollar in 2015, which made it difficult for companies generating revenue to repay debt in U.S. dollars. These increased costs could lead to a wave of corporate defaults that could hurt the emerging market corporate bond market and ETFs like the iShares Emerging Markets Corporate Bond ETF (CEMB).

2. Lower Foreign Investment
Many emerging markets have seen significant foreign direct investment since the 2008 global financial crisis. With U.S. and European bond yields at record lows, investors flocked into higher yielding emerging market stocks and bonds to bolster their portfolios yields. These emerging market economies became reliant on this steady increase in foreign investment to drive economic growth and witnessed significant expansion over the past several years.

Higher interest rates could draw more investors back to the U.S. and spark an outflow of capital from emerging markets. This lower foreign investment could put the brakes on economic growth in many economies that rely on such investments. The so-called Fragile Five economies have been deemed the most vulnerable to this kind of downturn – Turkey, Brazil, India, South Africa, and Indonesia – and warrant particularly close attention.

3. Falling Currency Values
Many emerging markets have experienced a significant appreciation in their currencies. For example, the USD/ZAR currency pair rose from less than 10.00 in 2012 to a high of 17.00 in January 2016 as the U.S. dollar depreciated against the South African rand. South Africa was able to leverage this increase in its currency valuation to borrow more U.S. dollars to finance various growth initiatives and increase government spending.

The bad news is that the rand – and other emerging market currencies – have already started to fall amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates. These dynamics could make it more difficult for countries like South Africa to repay their dollar-denominated debts – the same issue faced by many private companies.


The only solution may be to let its currency fall in value, which could help exports but hurt investment.

4. Sovereign Rating Pressure
Many emerging market governments took advantage of low U.S. interest rates to borrow in U.S. dollars. For example, South Africa borrowed heavily when the dollar was low and used the proceeds to help finance its growth and budgetary needs. These dynamics helped many emerging markets outperform over the past several years, but the strategy could come back to haunt them when the dollar rises in value and these debts become more expensive.

South Africa has one of the largest external financing requirements in the world, which means that its currency reserves are smaller than the amount needed to service its foreign debt and pay for imports. These dynamics could lead to a lower credit rating and higher borrowing cost moving forward if the U.S. dollar appreciates in value.

A higher borrowing cost could make it more difficult to obtain the funding needed to invest in growth.

5. Lower Dollar Commodities
Many emerging market economies are reliant on commodities to drive their economic growth. For instance, Brazil and Russia depend heavily on crude oil and natural gas prices, while Chile and Peru rely extensively on copper and other hard commodities. Commodity prices have risen over the past several years since they are priced in U.S. dollars and more dollars were required to purchase the same ‘value’ of commodities, putting a higher dollar value on them.

If the dollar rises in value, these dynamics could reverse and commodities could see further downward pressure. This is bad news for emerging markets because most commodities are sold in U.S. dollars, which means that they will generate less revenue in real terms. Less revenue could translate to slower growth and lower valuations for commodity-focused companies operating in these key emerging market economies.

The Bottom Line
The Federal Reserve has a significant impact on domestic markets, but many investors fail to realize it's equally important impact on foreign markets. Emerging markets are particularly vulnerable to these changes in interest rates and the dollar’s valuation relative to local currencies. The upshot is that the Federal Reserve has acknowledged this and does incorporate global concerns into its monetary policy decisions – but that doesn’t mean it won’t have an impact.
did they raise it by what percentage? is it up to 10%?
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 2:20pm On Jun 14, 2018
lafencer:
As regards the TOE companies, there have been huge volumes of late. First, it was UBA, then AFRIPUD, now its UCAP. TRANSCORP seems to be TOEing in that direction too. grin. Any thoughts please?
UBA just like zenith and gtb will most likely pay an interim dividend of 25k which gives a better return when compared to zenith and gtb.
In the case of transcorp, it appears to be grossly underpriced when you consider q1 result.
UCAP just got a new CEO who happens to be the resigning managing director of Afriprud.
On afriprud, my ogas at the top should just got ell us
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by cdieli(m): 2:35pm On Jun 14, 2018
Old wines have taken cover. I just love the NSE it humbles
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 2:38pm On Jun 14, 2018
Mpeace:
UBA just like zenith and gtb will most likely pay an interim dividend of 25k which gives a better return when compared to zenith and gtb.
In the case of transcorp, it appears to be grossly underpriced when you consider q1 result.
UCAP just got a new CEO who happens to be the resigning managing director of Afriprud.
On afriprud, my ogas at the top should just got ell us

That Peter Ashade na correct guy, very pro-shareholders
Ucap on my rather for December

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by musty00: 2:42pm On Jun 14, 2018
Hmm.....Dangote Cement performed a last minute James Bond recovery magic today. If not....
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 3:18pm On Jun 14, 2018
Breakout alert.........Honeywell

Disclosure; heavy here grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 3:30pm On Jun 14, 2018
cdieli:
Old wines have taken cover. I just love the NSE it humbles
You this newbie self, you go chop fine o. shocked
The old wines are very much with us, only that some dont see any value in investing in the market for now. 'Caution' is their watch word and as some of us dey prove stubborn and we tanda for market, na so dem siddon for their mattresses dey look us. grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 3:31pm On Jun 14, 2018
Agbalowomeri:
Breakout alert.........Honeywell Disclosure; heavy here grin
Agba yarn us better info na. Wetin dey happen or better still, wetin dey break there? angry tongue
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mendes911: 3:37pm On Jun 14, 2018
Agbalowomeri:
Breakout alert.........Honeywell

Disclosure; heavy here grin

Last second deal. That's not a breakout to me shaaa.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by musty00: 3:42pm On Jun 14, 2018
Agbalowomeri:
Breakout alert.........Honeywell

Disclosure; heavy here grin

So na individual BULL dey reign now grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 3:44pm On Jun 14, 2018
Mcy56:

Agba yarn us better info na. Wetin dey happen or better still, wetin dey break there? angry tongue

Maybe na virginity
Consult mendes
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 3:47pm On Jun 14, 2018
mendes911:
Last second deal. That's not a breakout to me shaaa.
You this guy self. Wouldnt you allow that old wine transmit faith in peace? undecided
As per say na only him defy the meeting resolution and entered the market with his mattress, oh sorry pillowcase. tongue grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by musty00: 3:48pm On Jun 14, 2018
This week traded sideways as expected.

We're still here.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mendes911: 3:50pm On Jun 14, 2018
Mcy56:

You this guy self. Wouldnt you allow that old wine transmit faith in peace? undecided
As per say na only him defy the meeting resolution and entered the market with his mattress, oh sorry pillowcase. tongue grin

Don't be deceived ooo. Agba is not with you. He's only trapped and looking for a way out. LOL. grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mendes911: 3:51pm On Jun 14, 2018
Agbalowomeri:


Maybe na virginity
Consult mendes

When virginity break, na blood go full the street.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 3:53pm On Jun 14, 2018
Two largest crude oil producers face each other now in World cup
Hope crude price will not crash
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 4:02pm On Jun 14, 2018
mendes911:
......na blood go full the street.
*Cover my eyes* I refused to be corrupted by Mendes.
..but abeg no dey mention that b word again. E no good for our market biko. Na bull with horn we dey expect. tongue
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mendes911: 4:15pm On Jun 14, 2018
I hope Sir Loco got more than enough Zenith Bank shares today.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 4:35pm On Jun 14, 2018
cdieli:
Old wines have taken cover. I just love the NSE it humbles

seems you don’t know them.. go and read from 2016 to 2017 you’ll see the most of the “old wines” have been quiet since the start of bear this year not because they were humbled but because they made hell of money and could not talk again
Now wey the money don dey reduce you’ll be seeing their post..
if not for the same people that have been posting since February this place would have been so boring.
And you are lucky to not have witnessed the “old wines” caught in the bear bear saga you for no dey open this site again.
Only 2 were caught in the mess and these were their language “ Thunder fire you” “F***k you”

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by musty00: 4:39pm On Jun 14, 2018
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 4:39pm On Jun 14, 2018
Agbalowomeri:


I still dey try see which magic go happen wey we no go see bull between now and mid-july

Wehdone sir.. I don turn my portfolio to long term.. I can not come and go and die because of one bull wey no gree come

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 4:42pm On Jun 14, 2018
I just need zenith not to go below 25 till next year

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