Mpeace:
Eps fell seriously from 155kobo to 63kobo.

Tiger brand loading

I still dey expect Japaul, Lasaco and Mbenefit report.

awesomeJ:

Cornwall would say "sought'

Meanwhile, formula for Agba's fair price= current price/2
regardless of results.

Quite straight forward.

Agba might be focusing on preferred entry price while CP might be looking at target exit price hence the difference.

Mcy56:
I still dey expect Japaul, Lasaco and Mbenefit report.

Your people

Dangflour

ROE 8.4%
BV = 7.9

PBV = 1.1

For Industrial/Manufacturing (given higher premium by market), I take every 10% ROE = 1PBV (for banks/financial sector 0.5PBV)

Appears this one is also about rightly priced (selling at 13% premium)

Be like this market is efficient at the moment

CP come carry your work o

MonkeyHunter:


Agba might be focusing on preferred entry price while CP might be looking at target exit price hence the difference.

By "current price", I meant current market price. e.g Zenith at 23.70, Agba's price =11.85

Agbalowomeri:
Dangflour

ROE 8.4%
BV = 7.9

PBV = 1.1

For Industrial/Manufacturing (given higher premium by market), I take every 10% ROE = 1PBV (for banks/financial sector 0.5PBV)

Appears this one is also about rightly priced (selling at 13% premium)

Be like this market is efficient at the moment

CP come carry your work o

I used to emphasize book value too, but I think earnings are a more important gauge.

What's the use of big book value with low earnings.

Banking stocks 5x PE,
consumer goods 10x
Right.

awesomeJ:


I used to emphasize book value too, but I think earnings are a more important gauge.

What's the use of big book value with low earnings.

Banking stocks 5x PE,
consumer goods 10x
Right.

Market punishes inefficiency
Let me see if the difference in efficiency still exist between Zenith and Guaranty

Dangoteflour has a very poor result. Kilometers #5 there we go. They will be among the result to welcome bear next week. .
Group
2018 q1 EPS 33.35 AGAINST 2017 q1 EPS of 63.37
2018 q2 EPS 65.00 AGAINST 2017 q2 EPS of 115.84

Company
2018 q1 EPS 29.35K AGAINST 2017 q1 EPS of 62.35k
2018 q1 EPS 62.47k AGAINST 2017 q1 EPS of 123.05k

Chibuking81:
Dangoteflour has a very poor result. Kilometers #5 there we go. They will be among the result to welcome bear next week. you never see something.
2018 q1 EPS 33.35 AGAINST 2017 q1 EPS of 63.37
2018 q2 EPS 65.00 AGAINST 2017 q2 EPS of 115.84

You may need to drop that tone Sir. Shebi we have all said peace going forward. Some forum members might still have this stock.

mendes911:


You may need to drop that tone Sir. Shebi we have all said peace going forward. Some forum members might still have this stock.

That I have done dear brother in the lord, one love.
Am not referring to those inside their bus or the stock itself, but to the election bear, which will bring the anticipated election bonanza.

Findings (based on full year audited 2017 reports)

Guaranty

-ROE - 27%

-BV 21.3

-PBV 1.9

Should sell at most 32 (1.5PBV)


Zenith
-ROE 22%

-BV 26.2

-PBV 0.9

Should sell at least 26.2 (1PBV)

Zenith appears to be bridging the gap in inefficiency, looking from the ROE
So Zenith at N13 would be a kill

Agbalowomeri:


Market punishes inefficiency
Let me see if the difference in efficiency still exist between Zenith and Guaranty

Sir, isn't inefficiency disparity between these banks more of cost to income ratio than returns on equity. That's a question to an uncle o. Not an argument.

From the latest full year statements:

GUARANTY:

BVPS= 496bn/29.43bn share= 16.85
EPS= 4.67
ROE= 4.67/16.85= 27.72%:

ZENITH:
BVPS= 821.66bn/31.4bn shares = 26.17
EPS = 5.66
ROE= 21.63%

27.72%, 21.63% not too wide.

From a cost to income perspective, the EARNINGS/REVENUE ratio for both banks is:

GUARANTY:
170.47bn/419.2bn= 40.67%

ZENITH:

177.933bn/745.19bn = 23.88%

40.67%, 23.88% now that's some gap.

actually by replacing the '%' symbol with 'NGN' , we'll get pretty good approximates of their stock prices.

What do you think Sir?

Agbalowomeri:
Findings (based on full year audited 2017 reports)

Guaranty

-ROE - 27%

-BV 21.3

-PBV 1.9

Should sell at most 32 (1.5PBV)


Zenith
-ROE 22%

-BV 26.2

-PBV 0.9

Should sell at least 26.2 (1PBV)

Zenith appears to be bridging the gap in inefficiency, looking from the ROE
So Zenith at N13 would be a kill

Or Zenith at 13, would be you pulling our legs.

By the way how did you calculate GT's BV. I got 16.85_ as contained in my post 'at the top'

awesomeJ:


Sir, isn't inefficiency disparity between these banks more of cost to income ratio than returns on equity. That's a question to an uncle o. Not an argument.

From the latest full year statements:

GUARANTY:

BVPS= 496bn/29.43bn share= 16.85
EPS= 4.67
ROE= 4.67/16.85= 27.72%:

ZENITH:
BVPS= 821.66bn/31.4bn shares = 26.17
EPS = 5.66
ROE= 21.63%

27.72%, 21.63% not too wide.

From a cost to income perspective, the EARNINGS/REVENUE ratio for both banks is:

GUARANTY:
170.47bn/419.2bn= 40.67%

ZENITH:

177.933bn/745.19bn = 23.88%

40.67%, 23.88% now that's some gap.

actually by replacing the '%' symbol with 'NGN' , we'll get pretty good approximates of their stock prices.

What do you think Sir?

That would be a more technically correct perspective; and perhaps why the valuations are still the way they are.
Me na road-side market sense I dey use Lol
So I have learnt something today.

awesomeJ:

Or Zenith at 13, would be you pulling our legs.

By the way how did you calculate GT's BV. I got 16.85_ as contained in my post 'at the top'

I think the equity is 625?

Agbalowomeri:
Findings (based on full year audited 2017 reports)

Guaranty

-ROE - 27%

-BV 21.3

-PBV 1.9

Should sell at most 32 (1.5PBV)


Zenith
-ROE 22%

-BV 26.2

-PBV 0.9

Should sell at least 26.2 (1PBV)

Zenith appears to be bridging the gap in inefficiency, looking from the ROE
So Zenith at N13 would be a kill

In bonanza period come January/ February next year

awesomeJ:

Or Zenith at 13, would be you pulling our legs.

By the way how did you calculate GT's BV. I got 16.85_ as contained in my post 'at the top'

Well at least we can agree that the further it is from 26, the better the bargain.

Agbalowomeri:

I think the equity is 625?

I saw 496bn.
Your PDF viewer is Aba made. or maybe it's mine.

Agbalowomeri:


Well at least we can agree that the further it is from 26, the better the bargain.

Yes Sir.

awesomeJ:


I saw 496bn.

Your PDF viewer is Aba made. or maybe it's mine.

may be you should turn your phone/laptop upside down
Or better still get a mirror image Lol

Agbalowomeri:


Well at least we can agree that the further it is from 26, the better the bargain.

zenith at #13? how possible is this?

aremso:



zenith at #13? how possible is this?

It is my own price that I am willing to dive in

However, considering the annual dividend an entry at 18 would give a 15% return which is also good for a gradual entry. Anything above that is not for me and my household

Agbalowomeri:


It is my own price that I am willing to dive in

However, considering the annual dividend an entry at 18 would give a 15% return which is also good for a gradual entry. Anything above that is not for me and my household

...ah! Agba!!! Zenith @ 13 Na to go borrow money "everywhere" & buy to keep

Seriously Agba, how do you come about 18? Is it based on any fundamental data? I'm asking because TA is also showing something important at around that price

Agbalowomeri:
September and December bargain

...@Agba, I'm envious of your TA capabilities nowadays. Keep it up sir

BullBearMkt:

...ah! Agba!!! Zenith @ 13 Na to go borrow money "everywhere" & buy to keep

Seriously Agba, how do you come about 18? Is it based on any fundamental data? I'm asking because TA is also showing something important at around that price

Purely dividend yield of 15%, nothing else

BullBearMkt:

...@Agba, I'm envious of your TA capabilities nowadays. Keep it up sir

You dey carry me yoke (in my Calabar accent lol)

Agbalowomeri:


Purely dividend yield of 15%, nothing else

...I don't know if it's a coincident or not. 17 - 18 is a long-term support zone for Zenith. Any price fall to this level na gr8 buy

Agbalowomeri:


You dey carry me yoke (in my Calabar accent lol)

Agbalowomeri:


For those using FA;

ROE here is 10% (very poor from FBNH)
For me a quick gauge of fair price based on earning alone is, for every 10% ROE p= 0.5PBV

BV for FBNH is 18.33 (equity/share outstanding)

PBV is 10/18.33 = 0.55

At current price, FBNH is rightly price. So no discount here for me


Discl; this is purely FA, me na gut-A Lol

Na wa ooh..So agba of all people can analyze lyk dis ... I think na only mocking tins ooh him sabi . Cant wait to graduate and start giving my own paralysis as well..I owe this forum.

Agbalowomeri:
Your people

Na so.