alhassanyusuf29:
what about the power of incumbency such as military,security,war chest,governors and inec..that will work in Buhari favor like ekiti

The national mood is for buhari to exit Aso Rock next year, incumbency wont save him.

Did GEJ/PdP have incumbency in 2015?

MrJanuzaj:


Most of these guys that yku see in nairaland are also on pther social media, they have been paid by PDP to promote hate in percieved APC strongholds. Most of them are the IPOB criminals that lost engagements since Nnamdi Kanu was silenced. Dont pay attention to them. I noticed they are roo much in this forum wirh multiple accounts.

You just typed my mind,one of them was busy talking about "the downfall of Tinubu",like Tinubu snatched his father's wife. .... .the thing con tire me

APC continued in Edo, took over in Ondo then overthrew the pebble in Ekiti state.

APC would have a much better showing in Delta and Rivers State.

Nassarawa and Abuja likely APC.

stinggy:


Oyo state (my state) - people are so tired. Same as Osun which I'm currently at for a few years now. You only need to listen to the phone-in programs on radio to know how tired these people are.
Ekiti people are still angry because of what APC did to them in the guber. Btw, ekiti has never been easy for APC. Same as Ondo state. You and I know their governor is not even helping matters despite all the huge revenue the state has.
Lagos state was almost 50-50 even when there wasn't hunger in the land.
Ogun is the only state Bubu might have had few influence but not with Obj's current countenance.
In my estimation, there's a growing revolt against Buhari in the SW.


cc: senatordave1

Oyo,Osun,Ogun and Lagos will give apc nothing less than 70% each, I laugh at u when u mentioned obasanjo that can never win his polling unit at ita eko not to talk of his ward,well 2019 is around the corner let's wait and see what will happen

MrJanuzaj:


Buhari will not lose middlebelt.

Niger: he will win here with a landslide victory.

Benue: he will lose benue by 60:40 remember the Akume is the favourite of the Tiv people and the abysmal performance of Ortom. Akumes senatorial zone is the most populated, Buhari will perform badly in the southern senatorial zone of idoma people.

Platueau: Same with Benue, Governor Lalong might not return, the hausa/muslin minorities will give Buahri a block vote. PmB also have some supporters in the Capital Jos too. 60/40 against PMB.

Kogi: your analysis for Kogi is spot on. Igbira votes are for PMB. Igala majorities and Smart Adeyemi will eat in to the okuns vote for PMB. PMB will win Kogi.

Nassarawa: i know Nassarawa inside out. All the state heavyweights are now in APC, Abdulahi Adamu and the recently decamped Wadada together with Magajin Uke will confortably deliver Keffi zone, Almakura will deliver Lafia Zone. Pmb will lose in the Akwanga zone. But he will win marginally.

Kwara: Saraki will deliver kwara to PDP but just Marginally, he wont have an easy ride this time around, his intimidating and coarsing machinery hhas been decimated, he will be well checkmated just like Fayose in Ekiti. Again Saraki will not produce all 3 senators again.

So in Generally PMB will egde North central.

I'm coming back to answer you on Kogi and Nasarawa. Watch this space. Reply below

tuniski:

I am a full blooded kwaran and I will tell you for free even if Saraki formed a party today he will defeat buhari in kwara hands down!
Yes, he is thank influential!
I am not even a Saraki fan but, I am 100% with him on this implosion of apc.

Saraki has been the Best SP ever!

Am also a full blooded kwara(from ilorin), u r not saying d truth bro, we all saw what happened during d lg election

pyxon:



I'm coming back to answer you on Kogi and Nasarawa. Watch this space. Reply below

Dont go and concoct lies as usuak.his analysis are spot on,even better than me who started the thread.the only thing you know of is hatred.

senatordave1:
Plateau:buhari has never won there but had his best showing last year garnering over 40% of the votes.i see the same thing happening or with buhari getting close to 50% since the governor is apc and plateau hasnt recorded violence like the pdp days.again,senator jang who rigs for pdp has been heavily demoralized by the government.
Benue:Benue has certainly been won over by the pdp due to the fulani herdsmen killing spree which has made the people detest apc.apc will likely win benue zone b where akume rules,get some reasonable votes from zone a.apc should get over 30% of the votes.but ortom will likely not be returned as the governor.
Niger: it is heavily dominated by buhari and apc since 2011.buhari should win here heavily polling close to a milion votes.
Kwara:saraki will likely win it for pdp but the fulanis plus the growing opposition to the saraki dynasty should give apc more than 30% of votes.
Kogi:although majority of kogites hate yahaya,his ebira people are solidly behind him.they will deliver bloc votes to buhari like never before.since kogi guber polls wont hold in february,the governor will relocate to kogi west to frustrate melaye,canvass votes for adeyemi and buhari.the okun people are not against buhari but bello.many of them will vots buhari.again,faleke will influence votes for buhari.the igala people are also against bello but a lot of them especially the muslims will vote buhari.buhari should get between 55 to 65 percent of the votes.
Nasarawa:buhari has never won here but loses marginally to pdp.pdp has gotten weaker here l.buhari will marginally win here for the first time.
Abuja:buhari always loses here marginally but with apc controling the local councils,he will likely win here marginally.
In conclusion,buhari may still lose marginally here but but the loss will be neutralized by the south west votes.the northwest will take care of the ss/se while the north east votes like in 2015 will crown buhari as the winner...

I see you have found where to buy pink cocaine

yemaldo:

Am also a full blooded kwara(from ilorin), u r not saying d truth bro, we all saw what happened during d lg election

Tuniski told me before that hes from kaduna oh.anyway,hes the 2nd kwaran am meeting that likes saraki out of over 200 i met

yemaldo:

Am also a full blooded kwara(from ilorin), u r not saying d truth bro, we all saw what happened during d lg election

That LG election was non representative of the reality of Saraki's state wide influence.

Be discerning and stop using isolated event to describe the whole.

MrJanuzaj:


Buhari will not lose middlebelt.

Niger: he will win here with a landslide victory.

Benue: he will lose benue by 60:40 remember the Akume is the favourite of the Tiv people and the abysmal performance of Ortom. Akumes senatorial zone is the most populated, Buhari will perform badly in the southern senatorial zone of idoma people.

Platueau: Same with Benue, Governor Lalong might not return, the hausa/muslin minorities will give Buahri a block vote. PmB also have some supporters in the Capital Jos too. 60/40 against PMB.

Kogi: your analysis for Kogi is spot on. Igbira votes are for PMB. Igala majorities and Smart Adeyemi will eat in to the okuns vote for PMB. PMB will win Kogi.

Nassarawa: i know Nassarawa inside out. All the state heavyweights are now in APC, Abdulahi Adamu and the recently decamped Wadada together with Magajin Uke will confortably deliver Keffi zone, Almakura will deliver Lafia Zone. Pmb will lose in the Akwanga zone. But he will win marginally.

Kwara: Saraki will deliver kwara to PDP but just Marginally, he wont have an easy ride this time around, his intimidating and coarsing machinery hhas been decimated, he will be well checkmated just like Fayose in Ekiti. Again Saraki will not produce all 3 senators again.

So in Generally PMB will egde North central.

Smart Adeyemi that could not defeat Dino Melaye in 2015 is APC's hope for 2015? Smart that can't even win his ward? Same Adeyemi whose hotel business in Kwara has been crumbled by Ahmed and Saraki?
If Smart Adeyemi is APC's best bet of winning in Kogi, then Kogi will even be worse for APC than I earlier thought. And mind you, even if you combine Kabba and ebira votes, it won't be up to igala vote on Benue and igala want bello and his godfather Buhari out so they can be well represented in the state and federal level again

tuniski:

The national mood is for buhari to exit Aso Rock next year, incumbency wont save him.

Did GEJ/PdP have incumbency in 2015?

It is not only incumbency that makes one win election,you should be more educated than this.mosr governors were against him,apc blocked his rigging methods,buhari had national support,international support,pdp's influence was limited to the south,gej had little or no diehard loyallists,he lost the west to apc,lost the media war to apc etc

tuniski:

That LG election was non representative of the reality of Saraki's state wide influence.

Be discerning and stop using isolated event to describe the whole.

OK, no problem, let's just wait and see

senatordave1:

Dont go and concoct lies as usuak.his analysis are spot on,even better than me who started the thread.the only thing you know of is hatred.

I'm not you who uses fairy tales to analyze politics. I am planted when it comes to middle belt. I lived 9 years Benue(grew up there), My polling unit is in Nasarawa, I attended higher institution in Niger, my parents and brothers live in Kogi(where I spend my breaks), my family house is in Abuja and I am replying you from Kwara. I sabi middle belt

senatordave1:

Tuniski told me before that hes from kaduna oh.anyway,hes the 2nd kwaran am meeting that likes saraki out of over 200 i met

You have problem with understanding.
I said 'currently I am in zaria', does that mean I am a native of Kaduna?


So if tomorrow I reference plateau state my state of birth, you will start screaming multiple identity.

Hehehehe, I am a Nigerian that has traverse the country in my middle age.

pyxon:



Smart Adeyemi that could not defeat Dino Melaye in 2015 is APC's hope for 2015? Smart that can't even win his ward? Same Adeyemi whose hotel business in Kwara has been crumbled by Ahmed and Saraki?
If Smart Adeyemi is APC's best bet of winning in Kogi, then Kogi will even be worse for APC than I earlier thought. And mind you, even if you combine Kabba and ebira votes, it won't be up to igala vote on Benue and igala want bello and his godfather Buhari out so they can be well represented in the state and federal level again

The muslim igalas want buhari.again,melaye won by the slightest of margins due to buhari tsunami.apc also won the other districts riding on buhari.this shows that adeyemi is still influential plus faleke should give 45% okun vote to buhari.

pyxon:



Smart Adeyemi that could not defeat Dino Melaye in 2015 is APC's hope for 2015? Smart that can't even win his ward? Same Adeyemi whose hotel business in Kwara has been crumbled by Ahmed and Saraki?
If Smart Adeyemi is APC's best bet of winning in Kogi, then Kogi will even be worse for APC than I earlier thought. And mind you, even if you combine Kabba and ebira votes, it won't be up to igala vote on Benue and igala want bello and his godfather Buhari out so they can be well represented in the state and federal level again

Who told you that igala will not vote PMB? Smart Adeyemi lost to Dino because of Buharis factor in the lokoja area. Most igala people will vote PMB. Buhari gave Dino the victory in 2015, okuns prefer Adeyemi. Dinos political career is gone. You are simply ignorant.

senatordave1:

It is not only incumbency that makes one win election,you should be more educated than this.mosr governors were against him,apc blocked his rigging methods,buhari had national support,international support,pdp's influence was limited to the south,gej had little or no diehard loyallists,he lost the west to apc,lost the media war to apc etc

You are not being a good student of history. Anyway, what you are simply trying to say is that; the political class were against GEJ in 2015.

Well be informed same is happening to buhari. The political class are just playing with the political naivete of PMB.

senatordave1:

Rants of someone that has never left the east.you are right,fanatical yoruba muslims will vote for buhari but moderate muslims and christians will not vote for pdp either,they will stay at home for lack of choice giving buhari the west.

Sorry to disappoint you, I'm a Southwest Christian and I'm waiting anxiously to vote for whoever the PDP fields against the imbe.cile and current occupant of Aso Rock.

No PDP or APC candidate can be further worse than Buhari and since APC is stuck with him, I'll gladly cast my vote for PDP. So will many Yoruba Christians and non-fanatical Muslims.

What even makes Buhari less of a choice for my Yoruba Muslim brothers is that the next presidential race will be between APC (Muslim candidate) and PDP (Muslim candidate). So, the issue of religion doesn't arise but failed performance of Buhari over the last 3+ years.

Who wants to endure another four years of hardship, hunger and bloodshed?

pyxon:


I'm not you who uses fairy tales to analyze politics. I am planted when it comes to middle belt. I lived 9 years Benue(grew up there), My polling unit is in Nasarawa, I attended higher institution in Niger, my parents and brothers live in Kogi(where I spend my breaks), my family house is in Abuja and I am replying you from Kwara. I sabi middle belt

Where is your polling unit in Nassarawa?

emmasege:
Sorry to disappoint you, I'm a Southwest Christian and I'm waiting anxiously to vote for whoever the PDP fields against the imbe.cile and current occupant of Aso Rock.

No PDP or APC candidate can be further worse than Buhari and since APC is stuck with him, I'll gladly cast my vote for PDP. So will many Yoruba Christians and non-fanatical Muslims.

What even makes Buhari less of a choice for my Yoruba Muslim brothers is that the next presidential race will be between APC (Muslim candidate) and PDP (Muslim candidate). So, the issue of religion doesn't arise but failed performance of Buhari over the last 3+ years.

Who wants to endure another four years of hardship, hunger and bloodshed?

Let me as u a question, who do you think yoruba people will vote for, Atiku?

tuniski:

You have problem with understanding.
I said 'currently I am in zaria', does that mean I am a native of Kaduna?


So if tomorrow I reference plateau state my state of birth, you will start screaming multiple identity.

Hehehehe, I am a Nigerian that has traverse the country in my middle age.

I have also traversed nigeria.you need to come down south to test the strength of apc and public opinion.you pdp supporters wallow in double speak and hypocrisy.you believe that atiku ,makarfi,ibb,tsmbuwal,lamido,kwankwaso will divide the northern votes but refuse to believe that amechi,omo agege,owan enoh,umanah,ngige,andy ubah,abe,oshiomhole,prince otu,timipre sylvs,onu,okorocha,nnamani,ouk will divide ss/se votes.you say apc and buhari is hated by ss/se but refuse to believe that pdp is hated in the north?

senatordave1:

The muslim igalas want buhari.again,melaye won by the slightest of margins due to buhari tsunami.apc also won the other districts riding on buhari.this shows that adeyemi is still influential plus faleke should give 45% okun vote to buhari.

First of all igala are 50/50 Christian/Muslim. And even the igalas that are muslim were not loyal to burahi because he is Fulani, they were loyal to him because he is Muslim. If PDP fields a northern Muslim candidate, they will kick away that Fulani jihadist because an igala man doesn't owe a Fulani man anything

MrJanuzaj:


Where is your polling unit in Nassarawa?

Ado Bakin primary school. Ado

tuniski:

You are not being a good student of history. Anyway, what you are simply trying to say is that; the political class were against GEJ in 2015.

Well be informed same is happening to buhari. The political class are just playing with the political naivete of PMB.

The power of the political class is waning.they were neither for gej or buhari.most governors are supporting buhari,he still has more spread,finance,structure and strategy than pdp.buhari is not as naive as gej.his lieutenants are smarter than those of gej and ruthless.who in pdp has the political class of tinubu?

pyxon:


First of all igala are 50/50 Christian/Muslim. And even the igalas that are muslim were not loyal to burahi because he is Fulani, they were loyal to him because he is Muslim. If PDP fields a northern Muslim candidate, they will kick away that Fulani jihadist because an igala man doesn't owe a Fulani man anything

You lie sir.60% of igalas are muslims.why should the igalas abandon buhari for atiku or tambuwal that they rarely know? You talk full of hatred and bitterness.35% igala votes,90% ebira votes and 45% okun votes for buhari will win kogi

senatordave1:

The power of the political class is waning.they were neither for gej or buhari.most governors are supporting buhari,he still has more spread,finance,structure and strategy than pdp.buhari is not as naive as gej.his lieutenants are smarter than those of gej and ruthless.who in pdp has the political class of tinubu?

"Who in PDP has the political class of Tinubu" lol The same Tinubu Saraki outclassed to emerge Senate president

yemaldo:

Let me as u a question, who do you think yoruba people will vote for, Atiku?

Has Atiku secured the ticket?

APC won Southwest marginally in 2015 despite all the media propaganda of the Thief.nubus. The weakness and failure of Buhari has been exposed since he assumed office. In 2019, he can't win the Southwest again except by rigging.

In 2015, it was Any Other But Jonathan (AOBJ) according to Ebora Owu.

In 2019, it will be Any Other But Buhari (AOBB).

None of the current Frontline candidates in PDP (Atiku, Shekarau, Makarfi, Yuguda, Dankwambo etc) can be worse than the fossil and brain-dead man in Aso Rock. They all appear to be far more nationalistic than the Daura President. And it would be an insult to anyone of them by comparing his IQ with Buhari's.

senatordave1:

You lie sir.60% of igalas are muslims.why should the igalas abandon buhari for atiku or tambuwal that they rarely know? You talk full of hatred and bitterness.35% igala votes,90% ebira votes and 45% okun votes for buhari will win kogi

First you said Smart Adeyemi will skew support in Kabba on behalf of APC, I reminded you that Melaye won him in 2015 elections.

Then you lied Igalas are Muslim, I reminded you that Igala have a big Christian population.

Now you're insulting me. It is the nature of a man who faces superior argument to result in violence and tantrums like the one you are throwing now. I'm done
When I come out to debate, I do so in the hope of learning something new from my opponent but obviously you are am empty headed lie peddling BMC member

yemaldo:

Let me as u a question, who do you think yoruba people will vote for, Atiku?

Why are you answering that one? He is not Yoruba unless he is resurgent.2019 AKA alcatraz of a guy. Even though I want Nigeria to split next year, I don't see how Buhari won't win next years election

pyxon:


Ado Bakin primary school. Ado

Ado, Mararaba, Nyanya phase 1, kurudu and those nearby satellite are not tge determinants of Nassarawa west senatorial zone, voting pattern.The main area that determine is Keffi, Nassarawa and Toto. And places like Garaku, Agwada, and the Afo speaking areas of Kokona LGA.
PMB will not do well in Local governments like. Nassarawa Eggon, Wamba, Agyaragu and Akwanga and may be in Obi, this is because of people like Solomon Ewuga. I dont know of Doma But he will do very well in Lafia, Awe, Toto, Nassarawa and Kokona., Karu LGA with towns like New karu, Masaka, Uke, Mararaba, Gidan Zakara, Zimbabwe etc is unpredictable. I dont know of Doma LGA. But mind you, with Almakura contesting for Senate in Lafia zone with a high voting population will tilt it for APC. Hope you know that Ahmed wadada that used to give PDP huge votes in Keffi is now in APC. Abdulahi Adamu will also win his statutory Senate.

senatordave1:

You lie sir.60% of igalas are muslims.why should the igalas abandon buhari for atiku or tambuwal that they rarely know? You talk full of hatred and bitterness.35% igala votes,90% ebira votes and 45% okun votes for buhari will win kogi

Buhari will get 70% of igala votes and 60% of the okuns vote. Smart Adeyemi is their favourite son. Dino is an outcast in okun