Posted By: EMMANUEL OLADESU

House of Representatives Speaker Yakubu Dogara has a decision to make. Will he defect to the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or remain in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)? Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the implications of the options he may embrace for his political career.

Yakubu Dogara, lawyer and House of Representatives Speaker, may be in a fix. A cloud of uncertainty appears to be hovering on the political career of the eminent politician from Bogoro Local Government Area of Bauchi State. He has a decision to make. Will the number four citizen defect from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), as being speculated? Will he embrace reconciliation and keep his APC membership card?

Before last weekend’s senatorial by-election result, the Speaker was said to be in a dilemma. Judging by the results of the election in his native Bogoro/Dass/Tafawa Balewa Constituency, is defection still a viable option? If he jumps ship like Senate President Bukola Saraki, who dumped the party penultimate week, what future awaits him?

APC National Chairman Adams Oshiomhole has said that the party has confidence in him. But, does he have confidence in the platform? Will the chairman succeed in persuading him to jettison his defection plan? If he defects or does not defect, what future awaits him?

Observers say the outcome of the by-election may be a pointer to 2019. It shows that APC is still in control of Bauchi. Apart from the candidates of the APC and the PDP, their parties and leaders were also on the popularity scale during the exercise.

The election, in part, could be described as a referendum on President Muhammadu Buhari, Governor Mohammed Abubakar and the APC. The poll, just like the ones that took place simultaneously in Cross River, Katsina and Kogi states, was a litmus test. The Bauchi exercise showed that voters were still emotionally attached to APC, despite the propaganda of defectors who have sought to dent the image of the party.

APC candidate Lawan Gumau won the Bauchi South by-election with 119,489 votes. According to the Returning Officer, Prof. Ahmed Sarkin-Pagam, he defeated eight other candidates, including the flag bearer of the PDP, Ladan Salihu, who polled 50, 256. The margin is wide. Interestingly, former Governor Isa Yuguda, who ran on the platform of the Green Party of Nigeria (GPN), also lost his deposit. He got 33, 079 votes.

If the votes of the PDP and GPN are combined, it will still be a far cry. The result is a worthy tribute to the memory of the late Senator Alo Wakili, who died on March 17. He was a chieftain of the APC. The result affirmed that Bauchi is an APC stronghold.

But, Dogara is not a paper weight politician at home. The mark of departure is that the Bogoro/Dass/Tafawa Balewa Federal Constituency, which he represents in the Lower Chamber, has been polarised. The constituency is made up of Bogoro, Dass and Tafawa Balewa councils. In his native Bogoro council, the poll result reflected his leaning to the opposition. Since it is an open secret that the federal legislator and his supporters swung the pendulum to the direction of the PDP, the opposition party defeated the APC in the council. This is a confirmation that Dogara is the undisputed political leader of Bogoro. The PDP got 6,646, APC secured 3,992. However, the jubilation across the wards in Bogoro council was short-lived. Outside Bogoro, voters sang a different tune. At the end, it was evident that the Speaker had a potent, but a narrow base. Therefore, analysts suggested that Dogara would need APC just as the party needs him to win Bogoro in next year’s polls.

Also, the two APC senators who have defected to the PDP – Isa Misau and Nazif Gamawa – could not spring any surprise. Their defection did not create a bandwagon effect during the by-election.

In Dass council, APC got 7, 432 votes and PDP polled 4,028. In Tafawa Balewa, APC also defeated the PDP, garnering 14,309 votes to PDP’s 8,528. In other councils, APC maintained a peculiar pattern of electoral victory.

The trend affirmed APC as the party to beat in Bauchi. It may also be the signpost to next year’s election. Indeed, the Bauchi poll was full of drama. As women cast their ballot, they also shouted the usual slogan of Sai Baba, echoing their nostalgic commitment to President Buhari and reiterating their determination to build on their fraternal goodwill, solidarity and loyalty to the president in February, next year’s election. It was an open endorsement of his second term bid. The scenario may mean that the president is still popular at the grassroots in many of the northern states.

The poll result was also reminiscent of the 2015 governorship and presidential elections when voters endorsed the APC at the polls. In 2015, the APC won in 19 of the 20 local governments in Bauchi during the governorship poll. The councils are: Alkaleri, Bauchi, Dass, Tafawa Balewa, Kirfi, Misau, Darazo, Katagun, Itas-Gadau, Toro, Ganduwa and Dambam. Others are Giade, Ningi, Jama’re, Shira, Warji, and Zaki. Instructively, the ruling party lost in Bogoro council.

Abubakar, the former Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, garnered 654, 934 votes to emerge winner. His rival, Mohammed Jatau of the PDP, polled 282,650 votes. In fact, Abubakar defeated the PDP in Tafawa Balewa Local Government Area, where the former PDP national chairman, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, hails from. He also won in Zaki Council, Jatau’s birthplace.

In the 2015 presidential election, President Buhari’s APC got 931, 598 votes. Former President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP got 86,085 votes. If Dogara defects and teams up with Misau and Gamawa in the PDP, can they alter the trend and pull the rug off the feet of the president and governor in Bauchi?

As an APC chieftain, Dogara is not perceived as a difficult politician who is aloof to compromise. Despite the circumstances surrounding his emergence as Speaker, he was conciliatory after the controversial election of House of Representatives principal officers.

He beckoned to his rival, Femi Gbajabiamila from Surulere Constituency and the candidate of party leaders, urging him to vie for the position of Deputy Speaker. Unlike the Senate President Bukola Saraki, there is no deep-seated hostility between him and the APC national leadership. However, there is no love lost between Dogara and the Bauchi governor. They seem to have an axe to grind over local matters at the home front. Efforts to resolve the differences in the last three-and-a-half years have proved abortive.

Dogara, a Christian from a predominantly Muslim state, has an ambition to occupy the driver’s seat at the Government House in Bauch. It is a legitimate aspiration. He may still be a candidate of the future, if he plays his card very well.

Governor Abubakar is interested in a second term. This may jeopardise the Speaker’s governorship ambition on the platform of the APC. But, if he defects to the PDP, can he also get the ticket of the rival party?

Two options are open to Dogara in the APC as the polity warms up for next year’s polls. If he does not defect, no chieftain will struggle for the House of Representatives ticket with him in his constituency. He may also vie for the Senate, although the primary will be a bone of contention between him and the new senator.

If he decides to remain in the APC, R-APC or nPDP forces may brand him a traitor.

If Dogara defects to the PDP and gets its governorship, senatorial or House of Representatives ticket, can he win at the poll? Can he defeat Governor Abubakar in next year’s election?

http://thenationonlineng.net/defection-what-difference-can-dogara-make/

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We watching

madridguy:
Dogara is already a gonner Let him go and fight for local government chairman in his LG.

I concur........ Like I said in another thread

To defeat him will be very easy. Since he represents 3 LGAs - Dass/Balewa/Bogoro constituency, all APC needs to do is to field somebody from either Balewa or Dass since he has been denying these LGAs a chance of representation for over 12 years now, play the religious card since he is a Christian in midst of Muslims and I tell you his name will be sorry in the next election.

Funny how every one has turned political analysts.

He is a gonner regardless of what decision he makes..The governor of Bauchi wants to render him useless.

Poor Analysis and deliberately skewed to Apc. Dogara is finished if he stays with APC but has lifeline with PDP QED.

He became speaker courtesy of PDP's block support and has been sustained by that, any miscalculation to remain in APC will be terminal!

Shehu Sani is now an orphan politically!

kahal29:


I concur........ Like I said in another thread

To defeat him will be very easy. Since he represents 3 LGAs - Dass/Balewa/Bogoro constituency, all APC needs to do is to field somebody from either Balewa or Dass since he has been denying these LGAs a chance of representation for over 12 years now, play the religious card since he is a Christian in midst of Muslims and I tell you his name will be sorry in the next election.

Christians are majority in his constituency ie the 3 LGA else a Christian can never win election against a moslem in a moslem majority population!
FACT!
You don't really know his constituency!

I'm sure he will be somewhere now regretting his moves. Though I don't have anything against him but it's just a pity he lack visionary advisers. He followed Atiku's advise and today he's alone.
Saraki will not know the damages he has caused to himself now till tomorrow. When Atiku was doing his own back then, he felt like the Alpha and Omega, and today he's full of regret. PDP needs OBJ and it's obvious Pa OBJ will never support Atiku for anything.

Let us learn to be contended, there's nothing wrong aspiring for greater heights, but we should learn not to be greedy, selfish and self centered.

kahal29:


I concur........ Like I said in another thread

To defeat him will be very easy. Since he represents 3 LGAs - Dass/Balewa/Bogoro constituency, all APC needs to do is to field somebody from either Balewa or Dass since he has been denying these LGAs a chance of representation for over 12 years now, play the religious card since he is a Christian in midst of Muslims and I tell you his name will be sorry in the next election.

A day is a long time in politics. It's unpredictable

Come what may, all I know is he knows his fate is sealed already. He's already revealed the workings of his innermost heart and mind and the party bigwigs knows he's a closet traitor and a saboteur.

He's only being tolerated at the moment for numbers sake, but is already being counted as a loss, a foregone alternative. His presence is not being factored in the grand scheme of things.

When things get to a head, edge him out we will, but for the time being, he can enjoy some respite for there are bigger axes to grind elsewhere.

I can see Reno viewing the thread. Hello Reno, remember me?

What we are concern about are people that will move the nation forward, not all these political prostitutes jumping from one party to the other.

With the GNP and PDP coalition, a significant difference would be made..

Dogara should be able to take the bull by the horn.. its amazing how the thread is littered with those in support of a party and not the refined politician..

madridguy:
Dogara is already a gonner Let him go and fight for local government chairman in his LG.

Even in that, there's no guarantee for a favourable outcome. The guy don shìt for church already. Him and Sani go know who dey papa be soonest.

EarthXmetahuman I sight you! How far na? Longest time.

Dogari will dig his own grave if he decamps to PDP. Bauchi will always remain an APC State.

Nigerians are wiser now.

tuniski:

Christians are majority in his constituency ie the 3 LGA else a Christian can never win election against a moslem in a moslem majority population!
FACT!
You don't really know his constituency!

can Muslim win election in enugu?


Can atheist win election in Nigeria?

APC members will never trust him again

Corrinthians:
EarthXmetahuman I sight you! How far na? Longest time.

I dey alright o my brother..

How every every?

EarthXmetahuman:
I dey alright o my brother..

How every every?

Bam o. Hope you're no longer that mean ol savage you used to be. Changing political tides, we had to adapt to keep these anti state elements here in check.

Good to have you back Veteran.

Corrinthians:
Bam o. Hope you're no longer that mean ol savage you used to be. Changing political tides, we had to adapt to keep these anti state elements here in check.

Good to have you back Veteran.

hehehe na so

Keep up the good work!
Someone has to keep smashing truth into those flat heads

Yes,he can defeat the incumbent Governor of Bauchi State on Twitter and Nairaland

Truly, Dogara's expected defection will have little or no consequence than an aggravation of the current intrigues and frenzy at the National Assembly.

Their influence ends in the National Assembly. They know that. This is why they're fighting tooth and nail to prevent the removal of Saraki as SP.

Most of these "fence sitters" and defectors have been de-facto members of PDP. They have always colluded with the opposition to truncate APC interests.

The APC is well aware of this and, I'm sure the new party leadership could not condone their consistent treachery any longer.
Dogara should join his like-minds in the PDP. He won't be missed. However, he should make sure that the door does not hit him on the way out.

Dogara allowed himself to be deceived by Wike and Saraki not knowing that his religion puts him at disadvantage position in Bauchi.

Even the moslems with same faith with Buhari that are against him politically are finding it funny to win their wards elections not to talk of Dogara a christain.

Dogara would have asked for forgiveness from APC the moment he went against APC and became speaker then show that he's APC by blood with his actions of allocating juicy committee chairmen to APC rep members, give speedy hearing to executive bills and romance with his state governor then he's sure of return to the house even speaker might be given to him again.

But rather he tinted towards Saraki, Wike, Tambuwal and PDP and started frustrating executive bills and became one of the arrow head of changing sequence of election targeted at the president.

Take it to the bank if Dogara does not settle his differences with his state governor, Dogara will not be re-elected be it in APC or PDP, senator Misau from Bauchi too that defected to PDP will not be re-elected, Dino Melaye will also not return. Then Saraki might not be re-elected and fails to install a governor in Kwara, is pushing his luck too far Buhari is not Jonathan.

2019 so many big politicians political career might end especially those against Buhari from the North. We all saw how Sai Buhari dealt a big blow to big wigs in PDP in 2015 people like Sule Lamido, Adamu Muazu, Aliyu Babangida, Dakingari, Idris Wada.

tuniski:
Poor Analysis and deliberately skewed to Apc. Dogara is finished if he stays with APC but has lifeline with PDP QED.

He became speaker courtesy of PDP's block support and has been sustained by that, any miscalculation to remain in APC will be terminal!

Shehu Sani is now an orphan politically!

Counter the thread instead of running from pillar to post. As you have suddenly forgotten, he will again need to be elected first in 2019 before he can form alliance with PDP to become a speaker again

Esseite:
With the GNP and PDP coalition, a significant difference would be made..

Dogara should be able to take the bull by the horn.. its amazing how the thread is littered with those in support of a party and not the refined politician..

GNP, PDP, ADP and APGA votes altogether in the election didn't get to half of what APC got. It high time, you got the message, the electorates in Bauchi are done with Papa Deceiving Pikin party.

Afamed:

GNP, PDP, ADP and APGA votes altogether in the election didn't get to half of what APC got. It high time, you got the message, the electorates in Bauchi are done with Papa Deceiving Pikin party.

To you anything APC is accepted, even if the devil joins it, well to some, the individual is more important.

And moreover adding GNP and PDP vote cuts across 70% of what APC got.

Do have a wonderful day..

MartinCorridon:
One monkey was arguing with me that Tafawa Balewa / Dass / Bogoro constituency that Dogara represents isn't majority Christian. I left him to wallow in his foolishness.

Whether we like it or not, Christians in Bauchi are largely in that Balewa constituency and I have witnessed open discrimination against them in the seat of Power at the capital.

Summary.... Dogara is in the minority even in Bauchi and really can influence votes in 3 LGAs out of 20 in Bauchi

One ignoramus is arguing that christains ain't majority in Dogara's constituency. Yeye dey smell!