emmasege:
You are right. PDP's strength has always been in the north central and the south ever since Buhari started contesting. That said, I expect Buhari to lose some grounds in the north east in particular this time around. He's been tested and his leadership weaknesses have been exposed since 2015. A few rational individuals in the north east and north west will definitely consider somebody else, more so that he'll be contesting against another core Northerner and Muslim.

He can only lose grounds in taraba and adamawa not borno and the others.how many defections or criticisms or rumblings are you getting from here? The way buhari is loved is different,no other person is loved like that except maybe the sultan.the last person that had this kind of love is the sardauna or aminu kano.
The love they have for buhari started in the 1970s when he was military governor of the then north east.it didnt start today.its not a blanket love.the late general shehu yaradua had this kind of love which was transferred to his junior brother late musa yaradua.its not blanket or automatic.they dont just love any northerner like that or muslim anyhow please.
Moreover,incumbents presidents do not allow vote sharing in their regions.expect rigged results from buhari.by the way apc has made more grounds in the south.
North central has nevef been anybody's base but always 50 50 like the west.pdp true base is ss/se which was usually inflated with federal power

senatordave1:

For north central,your correct.in the northwest,it should be 80%.apart from southern kaduna,few parts of kebbi and parts of kano,i dont see where pdp has presence and can make impact.tambuwal and kwankwaso who cant even visit kano cannot stop buhari from allocating votes here.
In the north east,pdp has given up hope on places like borno and yobe.apart from dogara lga,pdp has no presence in bauchi.pdp has presence in gombe but buhari owns here.adamawa is 50 50.taraba is slightly pdp so this should be above 70%

You are in denial. The day kwankwaso will enter kano, the entire state will be lockdown. Like a yoruba saying goes ' a child's father's house doesn't scare the child'!

Apc/buhari will be shocked by the groundswell of discontent across the country and specifically in the north!

senatordave1:

My analysis is based on presidential polls.buhari has always won here and the trend will continue.dankwambo survived narrowly in 2015 because of betrayal from a faction of the apc led by senator bayero nafada who was promised guber ticket.the guber post is 50/50.
Finally,if apc decides to rig in the north,pdp cant stop them

You're well informed bro. � up

senatordave1:

He can only lose grounds in taraba and adamawa not borno and the others.how many defections or criticisms or rumblings are you getting from here? The way buhari is loved is different,no other person is loved like that except maybe the sultan.the last person that had this kind of love is the sardauna or aminu kano.
The love they have for buhari started in the 1970s when he was military governor of the then north east.it didnt start today.its not a blanket love.the late general shehu yaradua had this kind of love which was transferred to his junior brother late musa yaradua.its not blanket or automatic.they dont just love any northerner like that or muslim anyhow please.
Moreover,incumbents presidents do not allow vote sharing in their regions.expect rigged results from buhari.by the way apc has made more grounds in the south.
North central has nevef been anybody's base but always 50 50 like the west.pdp true base is ss/se which was usually inflated with federal power

North central has always been stronghold of pdp from 1999 till 2015. Buhari/apc victory in the zone 2015 was accidental not norm. The region is fully back to pdp cos the apc/buhari's experiment has been disastrous. NW and NE will experience at Least 15% upsurge for PDP over 2015 performance. It will be more like 2011 for pdp.

tuniski:

North central has always been stronghold of pdp from 1999 till 2015. Buhari/apc victory in the zone 2015 was accidental not norm. The region is fully back to pdp cos the apc/buhari's experiment has been disastrous. NW and NE will experience at Least 15% upsurge for PDP over 2015 performance. It will be more like 2011 for pdp.

Pdp has always won the north central marginally same as the south west marginally.its nobody's base.your simply mistaking happenings in benue and kwara to wrongly generalize comically.there is nothing accidental in politics except the people voted by mistake.all the signs from the field shows a buhari victory yet you turn a blind eye.many buhari supporters here are from the south south which should send you a warning.for me from cross river to be defending this man like this tells a lot.

senatordave1:

Pdp has always won the north central marginally same as the south west marginally.its nobody's base.your simply mistaking happenings in benue and kwara to wrongly generalize comically.there is nothing accidental in politics except the people voted by mistake.all the signs from the field shows a buhari victory yet you turn a blind eye.many buhari supporters here are from the south south which should send you a warning.for me from cross river to be defending this man like this tells a lot.

I am a grounded north central man and I tell you straight up buhari will be thrashed in the middlebelt (NC) only Niger is sure for him with significant reduction in margin.

So many things are accidental like those you claimed won by riding on buhari's wave. Like apc winning plateau gov, like yahaya Bello being gov like elrufai being gov. 2015 was an election of errors and accidents .


Unfortunately many like you put your faith in the electoral map of 2015 even with humongous failure of buhari.

senatordave1:
Kano apc 80% pdp 20%
Katsina Apc 90 pdp 10%
Kaduna apc 65% pdp 35%
Zamfara apc 90% pdp 10%
Kebbi apc 75% pdp 25%
Sokoto apc 70% pdp 30%
Jigawa apc 70% pdp 30%

Bauchi apc 85% pd 15%
Gombe apc 65% pdp 35%
Adamawa apc 60 pdp 40%
Taraba pdp 60% apc 35% apga 5%
Borno% apc 97% pdp 3%
Yobe apc 95 pdp 5%

how on earth do you think PDP will get 15% in an APC state like Bauchi...forget about what people say online,in a free and fair election,there's no way the PDP will get even 2% in Bauchi...

tuniski:

I am a grounded north central man and I tell you straight up buhari will be thrashed in the middlebelt (NC) only Niger is sure for him with significant reduction in margin.

So many things are accidental like those you claimed won by riding on buhari's wave. Like apc winning plateau gov, like yahaya Bello being gov like elrufai being gov. 2015 was an election of errors and accidents .


Unfortunately many like you put your faith in the electoral map of 2015 even with humongous failure of buhari.

Guy,if your well grounded in the north central you will know that its 50/50.buhari always loses narrowly here,where is the thrashing coming from? you have never been able to give details of how buhari will losw here yet when others give it you stubbornly disagree.majority of people in kwara are now against saraki yet you claim he will deliver which means your a big liar always wallowing in self deceit.me that am on ground in the south is telling yoh how apc is getting stronger with evidence you no believe meanwhile you cant prove yours.
Ill never be able to convince you till after the polls.you have never taken part in any elections from your comments.take part in next year own and be guided.
For you to claim that el rufai winning an incumbent by over 700j votes is an accident is funny.that of bello may be accidental but apc winning that poll was never accidental.jang imposing late gns was not accidental except you dont the meaning.

Concerning the electoral map,it was obvious that buhari was going to win goodluck.all the signs were there.it was clear.but those same factors are still working for buhari.pdp doesnt have a candidate with a buhari like clout

slivertongue:
NC=APC-50 PDP-50
NE=APC-65 PDP-35
NW=APC-70 PDP-30
its a north north contest, wia insecurity &hunger is drivin d debate

for you to think that the PDP will garner up to 35% of votes in the NE shows that you are politically daft...iam from the NE,Bauchi precisely and I can confidently tell you that apart from Taraba(which is a small state in the NE in terms of population and number of registered voters)and maybe Adamawa,there's no state in the NE where the PDP will get upto 10% of votes...as a matter of fact,the PDP is dead and buried in the NE...

senatordave1:

Guy,if your well grounded in the north central you will know that its 50/50.buhari always loses narrowly here,where is the thrashing coming from? you have never been able to give details of how buhari will losw here yet when others give it you stubbornly disagree.majority of people in kwara are now against saraki yet you claim he will deliver which means your a big liar always wallowing in self deceit.me that am on ground in the south is telling yoh how apc is getting stronger with evidence you no believe meanwhile you cant prove yours.
Ill never be able to convince you till after the polls.you have never taken part in any elections from your comments.take part in next year own and be guided.
For you to claim that el rufai winning an incumbent by over 700j votes is an accident is funny.that of bello may be accidental but apc winning that poll was never accidental.jang imposing late gns was not accidental except you dont the meaning.

Concerning the electoral map,it was obvious that buhari was going to win goodluck.all the signs were there.it was clear.but those same factors are still working for buhari.pdp doesnt have a candidate with a buhari like clout

dont mind him...what yardstick is he using to measure Buharis popularity in the NC? this is a region where Buhari has always pulled a large chunk of the votes(though lost marginally in 2015 against an incubent president),and here is someone saying Buhari will be trashed in the NC...seriously,sometimes i can't help but laugh at some people's ignorance

Yawan magana barna...

GMB has a cult followin hia in d Nort bt poverty,insecurity,north-nort contest&d promise of fresh 8yrs is changin d game

The greatest losers are suffering Nigerians in all these. We should think about this as we go about electing these politicians. We should not get carried away by names and sentiments. Buhari has arrested practically everyone in the PDP who as they say stole public funds to run the 2015 election. So far he has not told us how he funded his election enough to remove Jonathan. The governors have not told us either. In Ekiti we saw Fayemi/APC spending significantly more than Fayose/PDP to win the governorship. Who will probe his financial sources for now? How did Tinubu come about such stupendous wealth when he did not have any factory anywhere before 1999? The trend will follow this month in Osun state with money and security people playing significant roles. Suffering Nigerians have been bamboozled into accepting tokens to vote the wrong people into seats. When they win they impose more yokes to enable them meet up with personal/party financial requirements. We are to learn how to hold leadership accountable otherwise the destiny of the next generation is in trouble. They drive around in massive jeeps yet the roads leading to their homes are very useless. They drink bottled water yet millions of Nigerians do not have quality water. Buhari has spent every opportunity travelling to fix his health yet we do not have good health facilities in Nigeria. He promised to end medical tourism yet he is the president who has applied it much more than the previous ones. Buhari is the face of APC. All you need to do in the north is shout sai baba as a symbol of your membership and then get elected. The contestants have no name of their own. These people should be voted out. I think we should forget political affiliations and just vote the right persons who will move us to the next level. For the 2019 election now there is a balance of power. APC has state power and money as evidenced in Ekiti. PDP has plenty of money left for the election. Both parties should be booted out because they are both birds of the same feather.

Buterflyle0:

This is almost accurate.
Very good

why won't it be accurate in your sight

Where were all this counts when Buhari lost in 2003,2007 and 2011? Nothing is impossible I strongly believe Buhari could lose 2019 election..

senatordave1:

Guy,if your well grounded in the north central you will know that its 50/50.buhari always loses narrowly here,where is the thrashing coming from? you have never been able to give details of how buhari will losw here yet when others give it you stubbornly disagree.majority of people in kwara are now against saraki yet you claim he will deliver which means your a big liar always wallowing in self deceit.me that am on ground in the south is telling yoh how apc is getting stronger with evidence you no believe meanwhile you cant prove yours.
Ill never be able to convince you till after the polls.you have never taken part in any elections from your comments.take part in next year own and be guided.
For you to claim that el rufai winning an incumbent by over 700j votes is an accident is funny.that of bello may be accidental but apc winning that poll was never accidental.jang imposing late gns was not accidental except you dont the meaning.

Concerning the electoral map,it was obvious that buhari was going to win goodluck.all the signs were there.it was clear.but those same factors are still working for buhari.pdp doesnt have a candidate with a buhari like clout

Concentrate on 2011 map not the Accident of 2015, that will give you insight into 2019.

You celebrate nothingness as defections and I don't blame you cos, that is now the forte of buharideens since the tsunami that hit apc.

tuniski:



Concentrate on 2011 map not the Accident of 2015, that will give you insight into 2019.

You celebrate nothingness as defections and I don't blame you cos, that is now the forte of buharideens since the tsunami that hit apc.

You have started again,apart from saraki and kwankwaso other defectors contribute nothing electorally.pdp has witnessed far more defection your biased and warped mind is over looking it unwisely.
If you have sense you should know thar the 2011 map was when pdp was in power with buhari concentrating up north.all your vain points still favour apc

slivertongue:
GMB has a cult followin hia in d Nort bt poverty,insecurity,north-nort contest&d promise of fresh 8yrs is changin d game

Not in favour of pdp and not enough to help pdp

SpatialKing:
Where were all this counts when Buhari lost in 2003,2007 and 2011? Nothing is impossible I strongly believe Buhari could lose 2019 election..

All those polls was when pdp were in power with buhari only known up north

Cantonese:
The greatest losers are suffering Nigerians in all these. We should think about this as we go about electing these politicians. We should not get carried away by names and sentiments. Buhari has arrested practically everyone in the PDP who as they say stole public funds to run the 2015 election. So far he has not told us how he funded his election enough to remove Jonathan. The governors have not told us either. In Ekiti we saw Fayemi/APC spending significantly more than Fayose/PDP to win the governorship. Who will probe his financial sources for now? How did Tinubu come about such stupendous wealth when he did not have any factory anywhere before 1999? The trend will follow this month in Osun state with money and security people playing significant roles. Suffering Nigerians have been bamboozled into accepting tokens to vote the wrong people into seats. When they win they impose more yokes to enable them meet up with personal/party financial requirements. We are to learn how to hold leadership accountable otherwise the destiny of the next generation is in trouble. They drive around in massive jeeps yet the roads leading to their homes are very useless. They drink bottled water yet millions of Nigerians do not have quality water. Buhari has spent every opportunity travelling to fix his health yet we do not have good health facilities in Nigeria. He promised to end medical tourism yet he is the president who has applied it much more than the previous ones. Buhari is the face of APC. All you need to do in the north is shout sai baba as a symbol of your membership and then get elected. The contestants have no name of their own. These people should be voted out. I think we should forget political affiliations and just vote the right persons who will move us to the next level. For the 2019 election now there is a balance of power. APC has state power and money as evidenced in Ekiti. PDP has plenty of money left for the election. Both parties should be booted out because they are both birds of the same feather.

I agree to voting both out.if your voting out apc,its not for pdp to take over.let another party come.until then apc stays

Yareema22:

dont mind him...what yardstick is he using to measure Buharis popularity in the NC? this is a region where Buhari has always pulled a large chunk of the votes(though lost marginally in 2015 against an incubent president),and here is someone saying Buhari will be trashed in the NC...seriously,sometimes i can't help but laugh at some people's ignorance

That is why butterfly they vex for am.he makes wild and foolish claims.saying north central is their base is also like saying south west is their base

senatordave1:

All those polls was when pdp were in power with buhari only known up north

So was PDP not in Power in 2015,yet Buhari won

SpatialKing:

So was PDP not in Power in 2015,yet Buhari won

Yes because of several reasons which were now present.this was lacking in previous polls.most governors supported him,he had southern alliance,he was more popular than gej,he had media advantage,more campaign funds.he countered pdp rigging measures while also devising his,had international support,pdp didnt use their federal power much,they were complacent.

senatordave1:

You have started again,apart from saraki and kwankwaso other defectors contribute nothing electorally.pdp has witnessed far more defection your biased and warped mind is over looking it unwisely.
If you have sense you should know thar the 2011 map was when pdp was in power with buhari concentrating up north.all your vain points still favour apc

You certainly don't have sense! To you Nigeria started in 2015!

senatordave1:

Yes because of several reasons which were now present.this was lacking in previous polls.most governors supported him,he had southern alliance,he was more popular than gej,he had media advantage,more campaign funds.he countered pdp rigging measures while also devising his,had international support,pdp didnt use their federal power much,they were complacent.

Shallow! Whatever advantage incumbency gives, PDP knows it more than apc.
APC is jjc on everything same As it supporters.

senatordave1:

Yes because of several reasons which were now present.this was lacking in previous polls.most governors supported him,he had southern alliance,he was more popular than gej,he had media advantage,more campaign funds.he countered pdp rigging measures while also devising his,had international support,pdp didnt use their federal power much,they were complacent.

Now you are you talking, meaning the secret of Buhari wining is on the mechanism and not on him as an individual... So the only thing PDP needs is to use those mechanism too.. Buhari is a gone.

senatordave1:

That is why butterfly they vex for am.he makes wild and foolish claims.saying north central is their base is also like saying south west is their base

SW is a Swing region that only voted buhari in 2015.

If you have sense and understanding your focus should be more on the states/regions buhari won for the first time in 2015 namely SW and NC (lagos,ondo,ogun,oyo and osun as well as kwara,benue,kogi) but you are interested in talking nothing as defections in Your enclave.

tuniski:

Shallow! Whatever advantage incumbency gives, PDP knows it more than apc.
APC is jjc on everything same As it supporters.

Apc has defeated pdp in everything it knows.is it when you see your ancestors that you will realize pdp is inferior? Look at your useless chairman secondus,very hateful mqn you look like him

tuniski:


SW is a Swing region that only voted buhari in 2015.

If you have sense and understanding your focus should be more on the states/regions buhari won for the first time in 2015 namely SW and NC (lagos,ondo,ogun,oyo and osun as well as kwara,benue,kogi) but you are interested in talking nothing as defections in Your enclave.

Buhari has always gotten reasonable votes here even in defeat.pdp has never won here by a landslide.Losing this states narrowly would not mean much in the grand scheme of things.
The real danger is down south.you fail to realize that pdp is no more dominant here.half of the members of apc were were in pdp before.apc is growing larger while pdp is getting weaker.you celebrate defectors like etang umoyo that always lost heavily to pdp.

SpatialKing:

Now you are you talking, meaning the secret of Buhari wining is on the mechanism and not on him as an individual... So the only thing PDP needs is to use those mechanism too.. Buhari is a gone.

Pdp couldnt defeat him in power,how do you defeat such ruthless fellow in power? You need to counter his strategies but pdp isnt doing that and its too late.apc has too many advantages.does pdp have die hard chieftains that are ready to do anything apart from wike? Can you compare secondus to oshiomhole

senatordave1:

Buhari has always gotten reasonable votes here even in defeat.pdp has never won here by a landslide.Losing this states narrowly would not mean much in the grand scheme of things.
The real danger is down south.you fail to realize that pdp is no more dominant here.half of the members of apc were were in pdp before.apc is growing larger while pdp is getting weaker.you celebrate defectors like etang umoyo that always lost heavily to pdp.

Buhari lost SW abysmally prior to 2015. Pls go do some historical research. Moving from an abysmal performance to marginal victory was massive in 2015 only poor minds with even poorer analytical basis don't get it.
By the way, until you understand that The person of buhari is what is driving votes Which ever way.

Remove buhari and the voting patterns across Nigeria will significantly change between apc and pdp.

This fundamental is What you are failing to grasp.

senatordave1:
Kano apc 80% pdp 20%
Katsina Apc 90 pdp 10%
Kaduna apc 65% pdp 35%
Zamfara apc 90% pdp 10%
Kebbi apc 75% pdp 25%
Sokoto apc 70% pdp 30%
Jigawa apc 70% pdp 30%

Bauchi apc 85% pd 15%
Gombe apc 65% pdp 35%
Adamawa apc 60 pdp 40%
Taraba pdp 60% apc 35% apga 5%
Borno% apc 97% pdp 3%
Yobe apc 95 pdp 5%

This things are fluid and based on who is running not the party and what is on offer with regards to money.