Like as a father pitieth his children, so the Lord pitieth them that fear him.

https://www.nairaland.com/3560501/holineness-righteousness-revival-daily-messages/16#71092809

mendes911:


Shebi you talk say you go load more at ₦22? Liver don cut you?

(Am not laughing at you Chief, na market I dey shine teeth for).

chai!! The mkt present golding opportunity for loco to bail out at 28 for days but he wanted more . the rest is story now. at least he is using other business to console himself, same capital could have added more unit if sold at 28 to load at even currentprice. Wicked market

Agbalowomeri:
Safe journey to oversold

...lol! Nice one @Agba.
Interestingly, apart from 2009, the index has maintained a monthly low price without getting oversold

BullBearMkt:

...lol! Nice one @Agba.
Interestingly, apart from 2009, the index has maintained a monthly low price without getting oversold

BBM, Please how bad does it look? I for ask Agba but as a grave robber, he will re-shape and re-color the chart to look as bad as possible.

BullBearMkt:

...lol! Nice one @Agba.
Interestingly, apart from 2009, the index has maintained a monthly low price without getting oversold

I have ONLY UNIONDAC in my kitty which i got at an average cost of 30kobo.
Please is ZENITHBANK a good buy @ #20 or should I wait a bit more. CC. BBM. Fuzer. CP. Wanajo .Agba and all the GURUS in the house.

Thanks.

mendes911:


BBM, Please how bad does it look? I for ask Agba but as a grave robber, he will re-shape and re-color the chart to look as bad as possible.

-Monthly very bad
-Weekly really bad and struggling to hold price at support
-Daily going bad after some fake rally

Common factor is BAD

megamart247:


I have ONLY UNIONDAC in my kitty which i got at an average cost of 30kobo.
Please is ZENITHBANK a good buy @ #20 or should I wait a bit more. CC. BBM. Fuzer. CP. Wanajo .Agba and all the GURUS in the house.

Thanks.

...I am looking for a buy signal for Zennith between 17-18. If the signal no show up at that price, then, maybe I go follow Agba's prediction below 13

BullBearMkt:

-Monthly very bad
-Weekly really bad and struggling to hold price at support
-Daily going bad after some fake rally

Common factor is BAD

Thanks.

Do you think 29k-30k support will hold with a possible 10%-15% reversal? I know that caveat emptor applies.....

Am looking for a small taste of the pudding.

I know that my question might be a bit premature (you can never be sure until it gets there), but what indication should one watch out for that will signify a reversal, however how weak it might be.

currentprice:


chai!! The mkt present golding opportunity for loco to bail out at 28 for days but he wanted more . the rest is story now. at least he is using other business to console himself, same capital could have added more unit if sold at 28 to load at even currentprice. Wicked market

Market is not wicked oo only doing what it knows best to do and let leave the man market out of this

BullBearMkt:

...I am looking for a buy signal for Zennith between 17-18. If the signal no show up at that price, then, maybe I go follow Agba's prediction below 13

That means bye bye to my N20 projection.
Thanks.

WAITING FOR ELECTION TO BUY - Does it worth the waiting?
I have tried to study the NSE ASI price movement just before and after presidential elections in Nigeria and its effect on the market generally. But due to lack of data even from NSE (this is terrible!), I cannot really come to a conclusion.

Available data only covers the last 3 presidential election from 2007.

-2007: Before election, market was bubbling and this is the period NSE witnessed great patronage both from crooks and saints alike. So market continue the euphoria during and after the elections. Good to note is that the incumbent party (PDP) just transfer power to the same party. Similarly, the power to be then nominee won the election. So the atmosphere was good for the market.

-2011: The election took place in April, but before then the world witnessed financial crash and many countries were just getting out of this including Nigeria. However, after the election, since the incumbent party (PDP) won the election, market embrassed the news, rallied for 1 month and immediately the president was sworn-in in May, market started falling till the end of that year...

-2015: From the beginning of the year, market was dipping due to uncertainties surrounding whether there will be election or not until American & British governments shown their anger; that was when Nigerian govt announced that presidential election will take place in March. Market loved the news & immediately a dipping market suddenly changed direction and created a pin-bar. Election came & gone with the incumbent president conceded defeat - market loved this and we witnessed market rally. Before the president was sworn-in, market became jittery and market started another fall till late 2016.

I tried to make any summary out these 3 scenarios but data is too small, however, a common factor are:
-Market rallies in the election month
-Market dips after president sworn-in and lasted for at least throughout that year

With the elections now coming in February, what do we expect

BullBearMkt:
WAITING FOR ELECTION TO BUY - Does it worth the waiting?
I have tried to study the NSE ASI price movement just before and after presidential elections in Nigeria and its effect on the market generally. But due to lack of data even from NSE (this is terrible!), I cannot really come to a conclusion.

Available data only covers the last 3 presidential election from 2007.

-2007: Before election, market was bubbling and this is the period NSE witnessed great patronage both from crooks and saints alike. So market continue the euphoria during and after the elections. Good to note is that the incumbent party (PDP) just transfer power to the same party. Similarly, the power to be then nominee won the election. So the atmosphere was good for the market.

-2011: The election took place in April, but before then the world witnessed financial crash and many countries are just getting out of this including Nigeria. However, after the election, since the incumbent party (PDP) won the election, market embrassed the news, rallied for 1 month and immediately the president was sworn-in in May, market started falling till the end of that year...

-2015: From the beginning of the year, market was dipping due to uncertainties surrounding whether their will be election or not until American & British governments shown their anger; that was when Nigerian govt announced that presidential election will take place in March. Market loved the news & immediately a dipping market suddenly changed direction and created a pin-bar. Election came & gone with the incumbent president conceded defeat - market loved this and we witnessed market rally. Before the president was sworn-in, market became jittery and market started another fall till late 2016.

I tried to make any summary out these 3 scenarios but data is too small, however, a common factor are:
-Market rallies in the election month
-Market dips after president sworn-in and lasted for at least throughout that year

With the elections now coming in February, what do we expect

A very good job BBM.

We need all the available data to make a good judgement.
This is a professional job and not all those beer parlour stories that have no basis.

mendes911:


Thanks.

Do you think 29k-30k support will hold with a possible 10%-15% reversal? I know that caveat emptor applies.....

Am looking for a small taste of the pudding.

I know that my question might be a bit premature (you can never be sure until it gets there), but what indication should one watch out for that will signify a reversal, however how weak it might be.

...I expect the support to hold. Who knows, it might coincide with the election time

Union Bank Raises N20b Bonds to Boost Working Capital, Loan Book
https://www.businesspost.ng/2018/09/11/union-bank-raises-n20b-bonds-to-boost-working-capital-loan-book/

CBN Credit Policy: Fidelity Bank Plans Big For Real Sector
https://www.businesspost.ng/2018/09/10/cbn-credit-policy-fidelity-bank-plans-big-for-real-sector/

BullBearMkt:

...I expect the support to hold. Who knows, it might coincide with the election time

on the highlighted part of your text. All these stones you and pluto are sharing this morning. Issokay.

Thanks for your reply.

But you didn't answer the second part of my question. Why indications on the chart will signify whether the support will be breached (You know all those TA words toh) or imminent reversal.

one should learn to stop shooting one self on the foot when it matters most. what's d outcome of the scuttled private placement for Ikeja hotels five years ago? who was worst hit? goody ibru or retail investors? if that placement had sail through that company should be selling around 9naira today thereby creating more wealth for retail investors like the story of ibtc.

MSCI PORTFOLIO MOVEMENT- AS AT 10 SEPTEMBER 2018/GENERAL COMMENT

Is seems the MSCI ETF is gradually slowing down. The transactions for yesterday reduced. Buy buying/selling fashion remains intact.

With the transaction from MSCI reducing, propensity for the down trend is likely to continue. My gauge is telling me that the probability of the market being bearish is about 82% the expected high and low of the day will be about: expected High – 33,885.97, expected low 33,464.92 ; the all share index[b] to decrease by about, 1.55%[/b]. These are the forecast for today, the actual closing figures will determine what is the state of the market for us to be able to know what to do. Note that this is not a class examination, it is for us to know what to plan for tomorrow. Computing these figure is not stressful, therefore I do not want to hear analysis paralysis (it is simple arithmetic, I have a set up template, just input the figures and the result shows up instantly) we will review the figures tomorrow.

Can you trust the above, again I will say that you can monitor the MSCI movement figures which we have now been doing for quite some time now and the figures have always been correct> The site to use to continue to monitor the MSCI figures given is: http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=NGE&region=usa&culture=en-US this morning the figure at the site should reflect what we saw yesterday.

My siting on the sideline continues, there is no volume to warrant my purchase for now. Although I have some stocks I have put in the market, but the price has not been hit for day. Some of us will see that one of the equities waiting to be disposed is my balance from Dangote Flour (waited for the “Mana” from Kano but which refused to fall down, Boko haram has hijacked the truck for the Mana and are guiding it from going pass the NGN8.50 range).

Wish all safety in the market, let us control our emotion, some little bounce likely to show up in October, but don’t expect the big profit that is why I continue to say ”take the small profit for now, the market is short of money”)

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan).
N:B

1. Due to the fact so many new people are coming to this forum and may not know this use of following the “big monies that move markets”, I will be indicating why/how to use the information. This will be a permanent future of my post to reduce some comments which may prevent the people that understand the system from confusion by people who have not followed how this started. My comment for today for anybody who doubts the efficacy of following the fund is to look at my recent recommendations for the past 2 months.

2. The fund will still hold some equity, the terms of service states this. Thus no matter the condition of the market, it will not liquidate to Zero. This is an equity fund investing in the Nigeria market.

3. You cannot bear losses like the fund. The pocket of the fund is too deep. Therefore, as an individual you are not suppose to be in the market during the stock markt crash. Before or during the crash, reduce your holding.

4. If you are seeing this type of data on MSCI for the first time. You may need to verify the figures. Go to my previous posts, you will see the various sources where the data cans be verified.

BullBearMkt:
WAITING FOR ELECTION TO BUY - Does it worth the waiting?
I have tried to study the NSE ASI price movement just before and after presidential elections in Nigeria and its effect on the market generally. But due to lack of data even from NSE (this is terrible!), I cannot really come to a conclusion.

Available data only covers the last 3 presidential election from 2007.

-2007: Before election, market was bubbling and this is the period NSE witnessed great patronage both from crooks and saints alike. So market continue the euphoria during and after the elections. Good to note is that the incumbent party (PDP) just transfer power to the same party. Similarly, the power to be then nominee won the election. So the atmosphere was good for the market.

-2011: The election took place in April, but before then the world witnessed financial crash and many countries were just getting out of this including Nigeria. However, after the election, since the incumbent party (PDP) won the election, market embrassed the news, rallied for 1 month and immediately the president was sworn-in in May, market started falling till the end of that year...

-2015: From the beginning of the year, market was dipping due to uncertainties surrounding whether there will be election or not until American & British governments shown their anger; that was when Nigerian govt announced that presidential election will take place in March. Market loved the news & immediately a dipping market suddenly changed direction and created a pin-bar. Election came & gone with the incumbent president conceded defeat - market loved this and we witnessed market rally. Before the president was sworn-in, market became jittery and market started another fall till late 2016.

I tried to make any summary out these 3 scenarios but data is too small, however, a common factor are:
-Market rallies in the election month
-Market dips after president sworn-in and lasted for at least throughout that year

With the elections now coming in February, what do we expect

Nice one. However, there are many factors at play so difficult to distinguish the main contributing factors.

For example, the 2015 issue has more to do with the shock in the economy than election fever itself. A situation were oil price crashed and the reserve was falling at an alarming rate. Even if there is no election, the outcome I believe would have been the same.

In 2018, I doubt that election again is the main issue. I think it has more to do with what is going on external to Nigeria. Most emerging markets are either devaluing their currency or watching the markets take a beating. RSA is in recession! Even Asia companies are not left out. Most emerging market funds have lost like 10% in the last 6 months.

The political risks associated with election is understood and most times exaggerated.

what is happening to GTb ooo falling than expected!

aremso:
what is happening to GTb ooo falling than expected!

adjust expectations very quickly

Bear mkt

''in a bear market, downside extremes are as likely as upside extremes in a bull market. ''

-

Zenith
- looks like it's going to test its 52-week low of N20.40

BullBearMkt:
WAITING FOR ELECTION TO BUY - Does it worth the waiting?



I tried to make any summary out these 3 scenarios but data is too small, however, a common factor are:
-Market rallies in the election month
-Market dips after president sworn-in and lasted for at least throughout that year

With the elections now coming in February, what do we expect

a dip below 30k levels !

yok:
MSCI PORTFOLIO MOVEMENT- AS AT 10 SEPTEMBER 2018/GENERAL COMMENT

Is seems the MSCI ETF is gradually slowing down. The transactions for yesterday reduced. Buy buying/selling fashion remains intact.

'' With the transaction from MSCI reducing, propensity for the down trend is likely to continue. ''

- local participation is now above 75% (expected with all d hike , political , fear and uncertainties)

#fud

fxuser:
Bear mkt

''in a bear market, downside extremes are as likely as upside extremes in a bull market. ''

-

True

wanaj0:


Nice one. However, there are many factors at play so difficult to distinguish the main contributing factors.

For example, the 2015 issue has more to do with the shock in the economy than election fever itself. A situation were oil price crashed and the reserve was falling at an alarming rate. Even if there is no election, the outcome I believe would have been the same.

In 2018, I doubt that election again is the main issue. I think it has more to do with what is going on external to Nigeria. Most emerging markets are either devaluing their currency or watching the markets take a beating. RSA is in recession! Even Asia companies are not left out. Most emerging market funds have lost like 10% in the last 6 months.

The political risks associated with election is understood and most times exaggerated.

...I agree with you wanaj0. Many factors affects the market. But in any country, political uncertainties supersede any economic factor. Before investors look at global economy, internal factors especially politics takes the for front temporarily, before people start looking issues outside. A case study is Brexit in 2008 - causing fear, Trumps election in 2016 creating excitement among investors.

fxuser:


- local participation is now above 75% (expected with all d hike , political , fear and uncertainties)

#fud

Hmm. Once the foreign investors return ehh. Hmm it would be...

Some stocks ain't doing badly this morning.
Uniondac for eg, almost on full bid.

FBN
- death cross in place
- d defense at n8.80 will need serx back up in due course

BullBearMkt:

...I agree with you wanaj0. Many factors affects the market. But in any country, political uncertainties supersede any economic factor. Before investors look at global economy, internal factors especially politics takes the for front temporarily, before people start looking issues outside. A case study is Brexit in 2008 - causing fear, Trumps election in 2016 creating excitement among investors.

But in Nigeria, the investors know that there is no 'issue' with election. The risk in 2018/2109 is much lower than 2014/2015. In 2014/2105 you had a North vs South with associated tensions while 2018/2019 it is likely a North vs North.

Just read a report that the total foreign money in the market is only about $10bn. Our reserve can accommodate that I believe.

yom2:
one should learn to stop shooting one self on the foot when it matters most. what's d outcome of the scuttled private placement for Ikeja hotels five years ago? who was worst hit? goody ibru or retail investors?

the share price of that company should have been close to 9 naira today like the story of ibtc. creating more value for retail investors

Stanbic. Has there benn another fine or what?