Based on the conditions below, PDP will lose the rerun election. PDP needs to work against the conditions to win and APC needs to work towards the conditions to win.

- The top four parties working together for APC against PDP
- Last saturdays election's voting pattern replicating itself
- All the voters that collected PVCs in the 'rerun' units vote


DETAILED ANALYSIS
*PDP's result percentage (using the top five parties results) from last saturday
Osogbo - 28.4%
Ife South - 25.7%
Ife North - 30.4%
Orolu - 49.4%

*Total PVCs collected in the 'rerun' LGAs
Osogbo - 677
Ife South - 791
Ife North - 320
Orolu - 806

With all conditions above fulfilled, PDP will have 890 votes tomorrow and APC will have 1704 votes. Adding this to the results on ground, your guess is as good as mine!

I don’t care about your analysis. But APC must win Osun State.

PDP has won already, this rerun is just a delay

Flattino:
I don’t care about your analysis. But APC must win Osun State.

...and continue with half-paid salaries ?Guy, are you for real ?

Good analysis, BT the rhythm will Change

Shelumiel:
...and continue with half-paid salaries ?Guy, are you for real ?

Adeleke won't even pay half salaries. Why do you think you are addressing idiots?. As if Aregbesola just woke up and decided not to pay salaries. You only think lile this in nursery schoo. lThere is no money is there is no money. Adeleke will have to sack 50% the workers to pay salaries or stop very vital programs. Whatever happens, there is a price to pay and no amount of dancing can help. People are just not reasoning or lying.

SternProphet:


Adeleke won't even pay half salaries. Why do you think you are addressing idiots?. As if Aregbesola just woke up and decided not to pay salaries. You only think lile this in nursery schoo. lThere is no money is there is no money. Adeleke will have to sack 50% the workers to pay salaries or stop very vital programs. Whatever happens, there is a price to pay and no amount of dancing can help. People are just not reasoning or lying.

Sir, you and I do not know what Adeleke plans to do; so we cannot say . However , we already know what Aregbesola and the APC have done . And believe me , it is not commendable.

Flattino:

Go drink your father at home

I see you are one of those people who enjoy collecting half salaries, and selling their votes for a meager 2000 just to vote APC

Shelumiel:
I see you are one of those people who enjoy collecting half salaries, and selling their votes for a meager 2000 just to vote APC

Cry an erosion. Olodo Omo nna

Shelumiel:
Sir, you and I do not know what Adeleke plans to do; so we cannot say . However , we already know what Aregbesola and the APC have done . And believe me , it is not commendable.

That is because there is no single video of him on the internet speaking on what he is going to do.. A nairalander was asking yesterday and he came under fire...

Change your moniker because what you just did is voodooism and not statistics,which is based on facts and projections based realistic figures.
First the total figure of 3964 or so is total number of registered voters and not those that collected PVCs.
Secondly even of the number of collected PVCs,who are thus the only people eligible to vote,at most 50% would turn out for reasons beyond any politician or voodoo statistician as you.
So taking best case scenarios,2000 PVCs were collected,though some are claiming its not even up to 1000.
50% of this gives at best 1000 voter turnout.
APC needs to get 70% of this,700 to win.
If its d figure of 1000 PVCs,this gives 500,meaning APC needs virtually all the votes to win.
Both scenarios are practically impossible for APC to meet.

As an ardent supporter of apc.

Truly I don't see apc winning this election. In those polling unit where election will hold people can't come out massively unlike last Saturday election.

IN each polling unit divide it by 2 then share it to different parties that will participate make sure apc wins with wide margin against pdp in each polling unit . At the end add those margin to pdp vote difference. But remember pdp will still get much votes added to their winning margin.

Flattino:
Mtchww No be only rule 2 . Na rule 593

please stop constituting nuisance here.

deboysben:
please stop constituting nuisance here.

Cry me a river .
Ipob terrorist

deboysben:
As an ardent supporter of apc.

Truly I don't see apc winning this election. In those polling unit where election will hold people can't come out massively unlike last Saturday election.

IN each polling unit divide it by 2 then share it to different parties that will participate make sure apc wins with wide margin against pdp in each polling unit . At the end add those margin to pdp vote difference. But remember pdp will still get much votes added to their winning margin.

Bla bla bla .
Ipob analysis from NNEWI

deboysben:
As an ardent supporter of apc.

Truly I don't see apc winning this election. In those polling unit where election will hold people can't come out massively unlike last Saturday election.

IN each polling unit divide it by 2 then share it to different parties that will participate make sure apc wins with wide margin against pdp in each polling unit . At the end add those margin to pdp vote difference. But remember pdp will still get much votes added to their winning margin.

I read it somewhere that the number of PVC's collected is 2584. So let's assume the number of PVC's collected so far is truly 2584 and let's assume the turnout is 60% tomorrow. By my calculation, 60% of 2584 is 1550.4 which is approximately 1550. Let's then assume that with the support of Omisore, APC is able to secure 65% of 1550 votes which is 1007, that makes PDP's votes 543. Let's then add PDP's outstanding 353 votes to the 543, their votes would be 896. Now subtract 896 from 1007, then APC would lead with about 111 votes. All in all, I see APC winning the rerun tomorrow.!

donphilopus:


I read it somewhere that the number of PVC's collected is 2584. So let's assume the number of PVC's collected so far is truly 2584 and let's assume the turnout is 60% tomorrow. By my calculation, 60% of 2584 is 1550.4 which is approximately 1550. Let's then assume that with the support of Omisore, APC is able to secure 65% of 1550 votes which is 1007, that makes PDP's votes 543. Let's then add PDP's outstanding 353 votes to the 543, their votes would be 896. Now subtract 896 from 1007, then APC would lead with about 111 votes. All in all, I see APC winning the rerun tomorrow.!

OK your own opinion remember we thought apc will win Osun election with wide margin. At the end what happened and you think pdp will sit down and watch during the rerun

seborrhic:
Change your moniker because what you just did is voodooism and not statistics,which is based on facts and projections based realistic figures.
First the total figure of 3964 or so is total number of registered voters and not those that collected PVCs.
Secondly even of the number of collected PVCs,who are thus the only people eligible to vote,at most 50% would turn out for reasons beyond any politician or voodoo statistician as you.
So taking best case scenarios,2000 PVCs were collected,though some are claiming its not even up to 1000.
50% of this gives at best 1000 voter turnout.
APC needs to get 70% of this,700 to win.
If its d figure of 1000 PVCs,this gives 500,meaning APC needs virtually all the votes to win.
Both scenarios are practically impossible for APC to meet.

The analysis I made was based on the total number of collected PVC (2584 as alleged) and the conditions stated.
Other factors such as voters turnout, vote buying, party agent betrayal, etc could tilt the result either in PDP or APC's favour...

seborrhic:
Change your moniker because what you just did is voodooism and not statistics,which is based on facts and projections based realistic figures.
First the total figure of 3964 or so is total number of registered voters and not those that collected PVCs.
Secondly even of the number of collected PVCs,who are thus the only people eligible to vote,at most 50% would turn out for reasons beyond any politician or voodoo statistician as you.
So taking best case scenarios,2000 PVCs were collected,though some are claiming its not even up to 1000.
50% of this gives at best 1000 voter turnout.
APC needs to get 70% of this,700 to win.
If its d figure of 1000 PVCs,this gives 500,meaning APC needs virtually all the votes to win.
Both scenarios are practically impossible for APC to meet.

I agree that statistics and projections can give us an idea where the pendulum will swing...but co'mon ....anyone expecting APC to miss this rare golden second chance is on a long thing. The good news for them here is that, non of the unit is in EDE...so, it will be very easy for APC to stuff ballots, hijack PVCs, infact, vote on behalf of voters that won't turn out to vote. Summarily, all forms of rigging machinery will be deployed and employed... lol. If PDP happens to be the incumbent, do you expect them to lose this kind of opportunity Never! So, APC will fight very dirty and win dirty... PDP can approach the tribunal afterwards

DStatAnalyst:
Based on the conditions below, PDP will lose the rerun election. PDP needs to work against the conditions to win and APC needs to work towards the conditions to win.

- The top four parties working together for APC against PDP
- Last saturdays election's voting pattern replicating itself
- All the voters that collected PVCs in the 'rerun' units vote


DETAILED ANALYSIS
*PDP's result percentage (using the top five parties results) from last saturday
Osogbo - 28.4%
Ife South - 25.7%
Ife North - 30.4%
Orolu - 49.4%

*Total PVCs collected in the 'rerun' LGAs
Osogbo - 677
Ife South - 791
Ife North - 320
Orolu - 806

With all conditions above fulfilled, PDP will have 890 votes tomorrow and APC will have 1704 votes. Adding this to the results on ground, your guess is as good as mine!

Stop fooling around

SternProphet:


Adeleke won't even pay half salaries. Why do you think you are addressing idiots?. As if Aregbesola just woke up and decided not to pay salaries. You only think lile this in nursery schoo. lThere is no money is there is no money. Adeleke will have to sack 50% the workers to pay salaries or stop very vital programs. Whatever happens, there is a price to pay and no amount of dancing can help. People are just not reasoning or lying.

Stop uttering gibberish

Who drag us into this nonsense

Dancing senator?


Who met a debt of 5.5b and turn it to 138b


Dancing senator?

Ajele will be history tomorrow

With the recent situation on ground, no party can actually come out to say that they will come out victorious over the other. but the fact is that Aregbesola just woke up and decided not to pay salaries, even if Adeleke come out victorious, nothing is going to change, unless he is ready to sack 50% the workers to pay salaries or stop very vital programs. which the apc government can do, Whatever happens, there is a price to pay and no amount of dancing can help.