curious question, with us sanctions on russian and chinese defence items....how would this affect our future defence procurement?

lionel4power:
I recently had a heated argument with a former air force officer (he's now flying commercial airplanes).

He's reason for leaving the NAF is that, in his words *he'll never have the chance to fly*, he attribute this to the fact that there's a lot of well qualified pilots but few aircrafts.

The NAF churns out pilots at a good rate but the corresponding aircrafts are few leading to competition amongst pilots.

A lot of other points were raised.


-----

1) With the recent loss of two NAF F-7Ni, which I believe would have a major impact strategically on the Air Force's overall performance.

2) Coupled with the fact that the JF-17 Thunder is not yet in sight, what is the way forward for the NAF?

Where is the NAF today in the overall scheme of things

3) Granted, at the moment the Air force is faced with internal security and COIN tasking. Notwithstanding, What is the NAFs current posture in terms of the defence of the republic?

4) Can the NAF honestly provide defensive (and offensive) measures for the defence of the Nigeria's sovereignty?

5) Can the present NAF undertake critical territorial protective actions, Power projection, expenditionary force protection, peacekeeping operations similar to the well publicized Sierra Leone.

In 2025 where do we see the NAF?

6) In the area of internal security operations, what should be tweaked to achieve maximum effectiveness?

7) Should the NAF blitzkrieg the Northeast with aggressive aerial assault or should they be more subtle, putting more focus on ISR, precision strike, drone warfare or HVT stint.

For now we know the NAF is soon to receive both the Super Tucano and JF-17 Thunder. Pending delivery and induction, what stopgap measures should they implement?

9) What unconventional approach should they adopt, not just for the Northeast theatre but also for the overall aerial defence structure of Nigeria?

10) Why has the vaunted Nigerian Armed Forces, which has once proclaimed itself (with much gusto) as the best in Africa haven't yet defeated Boko Haram?

What is the missing link?

11) Specifically, what aircrafts, missiles, equipment or technology etc. would be best suited for the Nigerian Air Force today?

12) Should they go the Russian way (Russia offensive actions in Syria) the Western direction (Gulf war) or a mix of both?

13) What recommendations would you offer the NAF if you were asked?
________

This are major issues that needs to be ironed out by everyone (Nigerians, Saffers, Kenyans, Algerians etc alike).

Nobody's opinion is lesser or more superior. Please let's be civil.

Nemesis8u I'll particularly like to hear your input. What should be done and what should they jettison?

1) The loss of 2 Nigerian Air Force F-7NI fighter jets will significantly diminish the air posture of the Nigerian Air Force. This is undeniable.

2) I can state with good authority, the Nigerian Air Force would not be getting any JF-17's soon. Probably after year 2020, but not before then. During the just concluded Air Show in Abuja, the Nigerian Air Force commentator categorically stated the Nigerian Air Force would receive a total of 37 aircrafts from now till 2020. He mentioned the Air Crafts to be received, the JF-17 was not mentioned. Kindly watch the NTA news Anniversary show for proof.


3) The Nigerian Air Force in it's current state is geared towards dealing with LICW threats.

4) You need to define the threats you are talking about.

5) Yes, the Nigerian Air Force can project power far from home, the military deployed fast jets, ships, helicopters and 2,000 men on very short notice to restore democracy in Gambia. However some of our critical assets are getting really old and would require quick replacement.

6) In the area of internal security, the Nigerian Air Force is in the right trajectory, with a good mix of platform acquisition, training of highly specialized units, armament and troop welfare. The service however still requires more funds.

The Nigerian Air Force will not get the JF-17. I don't see how the Air Force plans to acquire the JF-17.

Henry240:



2) I can state with good authority, the Nigerian Air Force would not be getting any JF-17's soon. Probably after year 2020, but not before then. During the just concluded Air Show in Abuja, the Nigerian Air Force commentator categorically stated the Nigerian Air Force would receive a total of 37 aircrafts from now till 2020. He mentioned the Air Crafts to be received, the JF-17 was not mentioned. Kindly watch the NTA news Anniversary show for proof.



The Nigerian Air Force will not get the JF-17. I don't see how the Air Force plans to acquire the JF-17.

Totally agree with your statements about the JF-17. I read in an article online where a further buy of 3 fairly used Super Tucanos from Embrea was mentioned by a official of the NAF in order to speed up the procurement. The JF-17 project named in the federal budget seems to be a placeholder like it was done with the MB339 for many years.

I also wouldn't read much into any statements from Pakistan, the has been not a single export recorded of the JF-17 so far. Anyway this platform it self seems to be obvious for many reasons, although the two-seater block II offers some potential.

It is understood that under the current budget we can only afford something like a L-39NG/CW upgrade to stay in the business. But it is clear that NAF will need a capable Lead-In trainer platform to proceed. In this regard I look at the L159 Hawk Mk 200, Yak 130. And heavier jets like F/A-50 and FTC-2000G.

Henry240:
Nigerian army Wolf Special forces vehicle and Belgian Fox SPV.

I cant get anything online with this name
Please keep your eyes Peeled for its combat usage

SuperSixOne:


Totally agree with your statements about the JF-17. I read in an article online where a further buy of 3 fairly used Super Tucanos from Embrea was mentioned by a official of the NAF in order to speed up the procurement. The JF-17 project named in the federal budget seems to be a placeholder like it was done with the MB339 for many years.

I also wouldn't read much into any statements from Pakistan, the has been not a single export recorded of the JF-17 so far. Anyway this platform it self seems to be obvious for many reasons, although the two-seater block II offers some potential.

It is understood that under the current budget we can only afford something like a L-39NG/CW upgrade to stay in the business. But it is clear that NAF will need a capable Lead-In trainer platform to proceed. In this regard I look at the L159 Hawk Mk 200, Yak 130. And heavier jets like F/A-50 and FTC-2000G.

I suspect that specification for the JF 17 was altered in step with iterative development work in Pakistan. I suspect that initially order was for engines only, then Block 1 and the latest s
(subsequent) corrections to JF 17B and JF 17 Block 2.
There is no budget placeholding on JF 17. The only placeholder in 2018 budget has 0 against the budget figure. There were two separate appropriations this year for JF17 aircraft..as if to distinguish between the B and the Block 2. If we are going for Block 2 and JF 17B, then 2019/early 2020 is a reasonable time frame because of contention from Myanmar and PAF.

On LIFT/light attack, FTC200G is completely unnecessary. Just buy more old Alpha Jets and upgrade them. The Germans and Frenvh will gladly hand them over. If that fails then do the NG upgrade on existing L-39s which will waste a lot of time anyway, throwing up Alpha Jet still as a better option. L-159/Hawk option will unfortunately take three years to get flying, so Alpha Jet again. FTC 2000 is an early generation technology trainer plane. It's only advantages are weapon load and complete lack of western technology that can be embargoed.

SternProphet:
@Lionel4power,

Strategy is always pragmatic and deliberate. Matched to immediate threats first and then made compatible with emerging threats.

Short term acquisitions next three years should be focussed on internal security and Boko Haram:;
(1) twelve (12) more upgraded Alpha Jets, L-159 aircraft or Hawk 2000 with night strike capabilities (please don't even mention Yak, there is fanciful stuff and there are things that work)
(2) 12 LUHs with precision light attack capability. We can pick them up for $120m fromthe $1bn ECA.
(3) Induction of the 6 nos JF17 Block 2s that we would have paid for.
(4) Induction of 12 Super Tucanos
(5) Precision munition kits APKWS/Hydra rockets on all AW109/A109 helicopters


Medium Term Acquisitions

(1) Acquisition of long range refuelling capability- aircraft, spares and extended training, exercises.
(2) Acquisition of offensive EW, ECM capability . This is not just in hardware platforms but also in terms of development of the training curricula, tactics and thr proving the capability via air exercises.
(3) Two squadrons JF17 Block 3 aircraft.
(4) Localized IADS for two zones- northeast (Chad/Cameroon) and the Niger border paired with Indian or Russian origin missile launchers. This might draw US reactions though.

Things not working
(1) MALE UCAVs are not working. There are no high value deeply embedded terrorists in remore areas that cannot be taken out using other means.
(2) Large helicopter transports MI-171sh, Super Puma are neither working nor showing any cost-effectiveness for now.
(3) UAV borne ISR not working. Apart from pipelines monitoring, Yabhon Flash might be a dud.

Before asking give us a realistic even if only hypothetical budget to make it practical! eg 1 bn $ would be on the low side both for short and medium term acquisitions and 1.5 to 2.5 bn$ would be more realistic. Especially given platforms are purchased allowing for training,maintenance cycle and possible attrition . Also no squadron of ac is ever 100% flight ready,usually 80% if turbo prop transports or as low as 40% for FSBs.

kikuyu1:


Before asking give us a realistic even if only hypothetical budget to make it practical! eg 1 bn $ would be on the low side both for short and medium term acquisitions and 1.5 to 2.5 bn$ would be more realistic. Especially given platforms are purchased allowing for training,maintenance cycle and possible attrition . Also no squadron of ac is ever 100% flight ready,usually 80% if turbo prop transports or as low as 40% for FSBs.

Short term acquisitions next three years should be focussed on internal security and Boko Haram:;
(1) twelve (12) more upgraded Alpha Jets, L-159 aircraft or Hawk 2000 with night strike capabilities (please don't even mention Yak, there is fanciful stuff and there are things that work) - $180m, actually Alpha Jet only option is just $60m
(2) 12 LUHs with precision light attack capability. We can pick them up for $120m fromthe $1bn ECA. - $72 - $120m
(3) Induction of the 6 nos JF17 Block 2s that we would have paid for.
(4) Induction of 12 Super Tucanos
(5) Precision munition kits APKWS/Hydra rockets on all AW109/A109 helicopters $50m


Medium Term Acquisitions

(1) Acquisition of long range refuelling capability- aircraft, spares and extended training, exercises. - three refuelling tankers, training and spares $120m
(2) Acquisition of offensive EW, ECM capability . This is not just in hardware platforms but also in terms of development of the training curricula, tactics and thr proving the capability via air exercises. - these are bolt-on pods for JF 17 with systems job and training $36m
(3) Two squadrons JF17 Block 3 aircraft. - $490m - $600m
(4) Localized IADS for two zones- northeast (Chad/Cameroon) and the Niger border paired with Indian or Russian origin missile launchers. This might draw US reactions though.

Edited: whoever liked this post should please unlike it... What is there to like about it?
________


Are you guys seeing this??


Boko Haram seized T-72 MBT.. bleeping T-72.

ISIS Wilayat Gharb Afrīqīyyah #ISWAP releases propaganda images of it's preparation and assault on a Nigerian SSS & Army position including a Tank at the shores of Lake Chad.

An turkish made Otorkar Cobra AFV was among equipments seized.

Photo Shared By @DonKlericuzio Suggests That The Insurgents On The Northern Front Of the NE Theatre Have Likely Seized A 122mm Field Artillery Piece From Troops In Niger

lionel4power:
Are you guys seeing this??


Boko Haram seized T-72 MBT.. bleeping T-72.

ISIS Wilayat Gharb Afrīqīyyah #ISWAP releases propaganda images of it's preparation and assault on a Nigerian SSS & Army position including a Tank at the shores of Lake Chad.

An turkish made Otorkar Cobra AFV was among equipments seized.

Does that look like a T72 to you?

On the day of this particular attack, many insurgents died.

https://www.nairaland.com/2239266/battle-field-discussion-picture-video/683#71585811
The pictures were all taken prior to the attack

One doesn’t often get to see a South African Army mechanised battalion on the move.

Xbee007:

Does that look like a T72 to you?

On the day of this particular attack, many insurgents died.

https://www.nairaland.com/2239266/battle-field-discussion-picture-video/683#71585811
The pictures were all taken prior to the attack

I'm just seeing them now.... What MBT is that?

lionel4power:


I'm just seeing them now.... What MBT is that?

Vickers

Xbee007:

Vickers

And what happened to the Vicker MBT?

lionel4power:

And what happened to the Vicker MBT?

Na today BHTs dey snatch Vickers MBT from NA? No be today.

Xbee007:

Na today BHTs dey snatch Vickers MBT from NA? No be today.

This man are you for or against?

Expect a lot of BHT propaganda videos in the future..

lionel4power:

This man are you for or against?

Expect a lot of BHT propaganda videos in the future..

That is a ludicrous question.

I don't support BHTs neither do I spread their propaganda, if that is what you are asking.

And I didn't click like on that picture, somebody else did.

Concerning the issue of the NAF, a lot of very knowledgeable insights has been dropped by well meaning honourable members.

Gladly my runaway air force buddy has now seen the light (although he still loves his job). He is of the opinion that we should petition the Nigerian Government on the issue of security, profer recommendations and suggestions.

I wonder how we hope to achieve that. How do people petition government?

Anyway I'll update you guys on our discussions.

Xbee007:

That is a ludicrous question.

I don't support BHTs neither do I spread their propaganda, if that is what you are asking.

And I didn't click like on that picture, somebody else did.

Bro chill I was being sarcastic.

Counter-Terrorism: Nigerian Army to Partner with Pakistan Army on Intelligence, Training, Others


http://www.securityaffairs.com.ng/2018/10/counter-terrorism-nigerian-army-to.html?m=0

SA Navy submarines...

Operational Status: Unknown

October 2018

SternProphet:



Short term acquisitions next three years should be focussed on internal security and Boko Haram:;
(1) twelve (12) more upgraded Alpha Jets, L-159 aircraft or Hawk 2000 with night strike capabilities (please don't even mention Yak, there is fanciful stuff and there are things that work) - $180m, actually Alpha Jet only option is just $60m
(2) 12 LUHs with precision light attack capability. We can pick them up for $120m fromthe $1bn ECA. - $72 - $120m
(3) Induction of the 6 nos JF17 Block 2s that we would have paid for.
(4) Induction of 12 Super Tucanos
(5) Precision munition kits APKWS/Hydra rockets on all AW109/A109 helicopters $50m


Medium Term Acquisitions

(1) Acquisition of long range refuelling capability- aircraft, spares and extended training, exercises. - three refuelling tankers, training and spares $120m
(2) Acquisition of offensive EW, ECM capability . This is not just in hardware platforms but also in terms of development of the training curricula, tactics and thr proving the capability via air exercises. - these are bolt-on pods for JF 17 with systems job and training $36m
(3) Two squadrons JF17 Block 3 aircraft. - $490m - $600m
(4) Localized IADS for two zones- northeast (Chad/Cameroon) and the Niger border paired with Indian or Russian origin missile launchers. This might draw US reactions though.

Hmmm...interesting! Most of us never look at costing when we scream on favour of our fav platforms; a habit I hope this post will cease it at the very least decrease ,even if only temporarily.
Your figures are still incomplete lacking annual upkeep costs,smth that starts at 4 mn USD annually for Gen 4 FSBs like the J 10.
Now,I'm only on my phone: will add proper detail tomorrow morning.

Got this on my feed:

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh in Talks for Major South African Arms Deal

https://worldview.stratfor.com/situation-report/saudi-arabia-riyadh-talks-major-south-african-arms-deal

Kamov Ka-32T , open doors algerian AF this days

The fifth new Kilo 636 M submarin starting travel to algeria for delivry

Pics 03 october 2018

Odunayaw:
I cant get anything online with this name
Please keep your eyes Peeled for its combat usage

You won't see anything online. It seems i made the first online non-video mention of the vehicle.

lionel4power:
SA Navy submarines...

Operational Status: Unknown

October 2018

That picture is from 2012

lionel4power:
One doesn’t often get to see a South African Army mechanised battalion on the move.

And at least try edit the title into your own words before posting.

ssaengine:


And at least try edit the title into your own words before posting.

and why should I do that?

I post it here as I see it?

SternProphet:



Short term acquisitions next three years should be focussed on internal security and Boko Haram:;
(1) twelve (12) more upgraded Alpha Jets, L-159 aircraft or Hawk 2000 with night strike capabilities (please don't even mention Yak, there is fanciful stuff and there are things that work) - $180m, actually Alpha Jet only option is just $60m
(2) 12 LUHs with precision light attack capability. We can pick them up for $120m fromthe $1bn ECA. - $72 - $120m
(3) Induction of the 6 nos JF17 Block 2s that we would have paid for.
(4) Induction of 12 Super Tucanos
(5) Precision munition kits APKWS/Hydra rockets on all AW109/A109 helicopters $50m


Medium Term Acquisitions

(1) Acquisition of long range refuelling capability- aircraft, spares and extended training, exercises. - three refuelling tankers, training and spares $120m
(2) Acquisition of offensive EW, ECM capability . This is not just in hardware platforms but also in terms of development of the training curricula, tactics and thr proving the capability via air exercises. - these are bolt-on pods for JF 17 with systems job and training $36m
(3) Two squadrons JF17 Block 3 aircraft. - $490m - $600m
(4) Localized IADS for two zones- northeast (Chad/Cameroon) and the Niger border paired with Indian or Russian origin missile launchers. This might draw US reactions though.

The L 159 is cheap at 20 mn with annual upkeep cost of 1.25 mn$. The Hawk 200 45 mn$ a pop with annual cost of 2.5m$ and its external payload is 3 T compared to the mere 1.2 T of the L 159. All figures from here:
http://nationsdawnofanera.weebly.com/-light-attack--training-aircraft.html

a 12 PLANE SQUADRON OF THE L 159 a 12 PLANE SQUADRON OF THE HAWK 200

Fly away cost 240 mn Fly away cost 540 mn$
Annual upkeep 1.25 mn each for 12 15 mn $ Annual upkeep 2.5 mn $ each for 12 mn$ 30 mn$

Total FAC + one years operational cost 255 mn$ Total FAC + one years operational cost 570 mn$


Imo,I'd go for the Hawk 200 but frankly your immediate threat can be adequately handled with a pair of L 159s 50% cheaper on all levels. Against a conventional army however in proper mechanised/motorised formations that small payload will be a problem necessitating a quick RTB to bomb up and refuel increasing the sortie rate putting pressure on pilots and ground crews.

For the LUH I'd go for the Rudra which is actually a MI 24 lite-a combined recce,battle taxi and CAS . Nemesis8u can tell you how extensively its been tested like all Indian defence products.

The HAL Rudra, also known as ALH-WSI, is an armed version of HAL Dhruv. Rudra is equipped with Forward Looking Infrared and Thermal Imaging Sights Interface

12 aircraft Rudra squadron

flyway cost 15 mn$ for 12 180 mn$
annual upkeep 1.5 mn$ for 12 18 mn $

Total FAC+ ONE YEARS OPERATIONAL COST 198, 200 MN$


6 J 17 Block 2
fly way cost 35 mn$ for 6 180 mn$

upkeep 2.25 mn for 6 aircraft 13.5 mn$

TOTAL FAC + ONE YEAR OPERATIONAL COST 195 MN$

Idk,the Tuc costs. It may have been typically tied to life cycle costs of ordnance,servicing and hangar construction costs.

The APKWS costs 30 k a unit and I've no idea how many AW 109s you have. It seems there's nothing solid on the net,imagine!

If all AIE,Authority to Incur Expenditure for 1.5 bn $ on Short term acquisitions were mine this would be my choice based on finance,tactical demands and politics or rather the realities of Anglo Zionist domination . You know as well,if not better than I how they've delayed and sabotaged your Tuc deal. Typically,they delay much needed spares deliveries to teach 'difficult' natives a lesson while speechifying on human/woman/animal rights.
Rmbr,the Paki F 16 story? A few years back they undertook to buy 8 F 16s which due to politics[b] haven't been delivered while the US srsly considers setting up an F 16 production line on their enemys' territory![/b] Yes,the Hawk is a BAE product based in the UK,but basically the Anglo Zionists are identical.
So we'll go for L 159s and Rudras. Using the latter for transport and CAS reduces logistical service issues and I'd go for 3 squadrons of 600 mn$ to increase NA air mobility,with the J 17 Block 2s costing 200 mn$ leaving you around 400 mn$ for 12 Super Tucs and your APKWS. Btw,is the latter a need or a want?
The world has been operating dumb and cheap 68 mm rockets for decades. Anyway I think 400 mn$ can get settle your remaining needs.

lionel4power:
and why should I do that?

I post it here as I see it?

Oh I thought you ran your own military blog. Just from a professional point of view, to distinguish yourself from the verbatim words of another military blogger. But to each his own, more power to you.

Okay. JF 17 confirmed not cancelled (like I said).

I knew it was impossible for two entries to be in budget and the deal would be cancelled
Possible we are getting 2 nos. JF17 Block 2 and 1 no. JF17B.

Some replacement craft for the Chinese FT-7NI and F-7NI and pilot training also possible from Pakistan.

https://www.facebook.com/hqnigerianairforce/posts/2188903574655915/