Deloitte, one of the big 4 has made a summary of 2019 proposed budget presented by president Muhammadu buhari highlighting keynotes assumptions and comparing 2019 budget against 2018.


Deloitte summary-The 2019 Budget which flows from the 2019-2021 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) showed projected aggregate expenditure of ₦8.83 trillion, expected revenue of ₦6.97 trillion and a deficit of ₦1.86 trillion. The planned expenditure for 2019 is lower than the approved 2018 Appropriation Act figure of ₦9.12 trillion by 3% but higher than the estimate of ₦8.6 trillion contained in the President’s initial submission to the National Assembly. The expected revenue of ₦6.97 trillion for 2019 is also lower than the approved 2018 budget of ₦7.17 trillion by 3% but higher than ₦6.6 trillion contained in the Appropriation Bill initially submitted by the President.

Key assumptions

The budgeted daily crude oil production and exchange rate contained in 2019 Budget remained the same as in the approved prior year’s Budget at 2.3 million barrels per day and N305/$, respectively.

However, the benchmark oil price is put at $60 per barrel, up from the $51 per barrel approved for 2018. GDP growth is projected at 3.01% compared with 3.5% in prior year, while inflation rate is projected at 9.98%.

With the volatility in oil prices and the current downward trend being experienced, the benchmark oil price appears optimistic. It will also be a tough task to actualise planned daily oil production of 2.3 million barrels per day in an election year considering that actual daily oil production in 2018 as at the end of third quarter was 1.95 million barrels per day.

https://blog.deloitte.com.ng/federal-government-of-nigerias-2019-budget-of-continuity/

The 2019 budget has some unrealistic assumption that will strongly affect its implementation, we can see this first looking at the main dependency of the budget which is Oil.

oil production is unrealistic and the same goes for the oil benchmark

mayprince:
The 2019 budget has some unrealistic assumption that will strongly affect its implementation, we can see this first looking at the main dependency of the budget which is Oil.

baralatie:
oil production is unrealistic and the same goes for the oil benchmark

With the volatility in oil prices and the current downward trend being experienced, the benchmark oil price appears optimistic. 

The two guys above saw nothing but unrealistic assumptions, but we see realistic.
You are what you see obviously!

Hmmm all I can say
Absolutely not right

Voicemail budget

Paper country

Don't know why we keep doing the same things over and over again yet, expect a different result. Thought IGR from agriculture, customs and npa was said to be very high? Why now the complete dependence on oil with even an unrealistic benchmark?

That kind coded company.. Okay

Will it make government to borrow more? I am looking at the treasury bill investment

It's better to lower the oil bench mark and projected.price, to $50-$55, with trump flooding the market with US crude, and OPEC.not cutting supply $60 is highly ambitous. Against all odds if oil price was to exceed the $55-$60 asssumption, that gives us enough money to save in our excess crude account and our foreign reserves.

Since the begining of our new democracy 1999 till date, only three ministers have made attempt to truly diversify our economy, fashola, ameachi and adesina the former agriculture minister. This men work without expecting praises, only well informed and traveled people can see their vission.

Like completion of ajaokuta - warri rail line, this project alone can take us to the next level, as the only reason ajaokuta steel plant isnt working to full capacity is lack of coal coke to feul its furnace, but now we can ship the coal through onne port and use the freight train to deliver it straight to ajaokuta.


What fashola is doing with power especially mabila plant and other abandoned power project is under reported.

They want to confuse us.

fasho01:
Don't know why we keep doing the same things over and over again yet, expect a different result. Thought IGR from agriculture, customs and npa was said to be very high? Why not the complete dependence on oil with even an unrealistic benchmark?

Since we have people that got there through federal character and catchment area, which thinking 'out of the box' do you expect?

Last year news

Oil revenue kill you there! We will reduce dependency on oil yet 3 years later the budget is heavily reliant on it. Diversification of economy- Fail
Insecurity- Fail
Fight against Corruption- Fail

Just2endowed2:


Since we have people that got there through federal character and catchment area, which thinking 'out of the box' do you expect?

Well, true.. Not surprised by this though. What baffles me is how people who claim to be sane still support this level of lifelessness and backwardness

Welcome 2019
It shall be well with Nigeria.

Ok

Sai Baba 2019

Useless buhari, useless illiterate incompetent economic team.

Foolish zombies like the suya seller above have already started sucking on buhari's balls and falling over themselves to deliver support. At this rate, even if buhari kills their fathers or children, they'd still support and say why did the dead go to where buhari was killing people Lol

The only problem with this government is promising above what they can achieve.
Averagely they have done well.

Maket:
The only problem with this government is promising above what they can achieve.
Averagely they have done well.

...............not that I oppose your assertion ...but "done well" in what areas to be precise ?

Some genuine crtiics but also many naysayers have been saying the same things - unrealistic, unrealistic.

What's the problem with being ambitious and optimistic?

In the end a budget is a budget - projections within reasonable limits.

For an economy that needs the fiscal expansion like yesterday, I'll rather budget for 15 roads and maybe build 10 if the revenue falls short, than plan for 10 roads and be caught keeping excess fund or worse, spend without planning, if revenue expands within the fiscal year.

As I type, Brent is about 54 dollars (53.80) and production is about 1.9mbpd. With possible OPEC cuts in Q1 and the likely coming on stream of the FPSO Egina, the projections of 60 dollars and 2.3mbpd are, yes optimistic, but are also within reasonable limits for rightly ambitious economic targets.

fasho01:
Don't know why we keep doing the same things over and over again yet, expect a different result. Thought IGR from agriculture, customs and npa was said to be very high? Why now the complete dependence on oil with even an unrealistic benchmark?

Cos those IGR from agricultural etc stuffs were all lies