Covert1:


I read it. Even ISWAP can anticipate what measures he suggested. I have submitted a more unpredictable one.

I don't agree with everything posted by the author especially with that part of it's "not a question of spending more...". The writer himself identified existing gaps in ISR capacity and his pessimism in closing that. I disagree. When you are faced with an existential threat you do everything you can to overcome it. And in all fairness to the Nigerian Armed Forces there is nothing projected by the writer that has not been done. Furthermore the CDS continues to generate forces for mission purposes the only question is of what quality and though the Military is stretched it is not overwhelmed. The facts on the ground point to the need to adequately fund and equip the Nigerian Army that bears the brunt of the fighting in the north-east.

Beautiful response.

Henry240:

Beautiful response.

Hello! Just checked your profile. Saw the martial picture. Are you a serving member? In the armed forces I mean.

SternProphet:


The SU 34 will never be able to find and kill Boko Haram as cheaply and effectively as Super Tucano. The Super Tucano can be used proactively, loitering with its boring turboprop engines droning on and looking for insurgents with one pilot scanning sensors poring through sahel savanna brush.
The other scenario of scrambling high flying SU 34s to counter random raids by 500 ISWAP guys on distant Nigerian Army who frequently melt away in many predetermined directions is interesting but far stretched.
I would rather buy 12 more Super Tucanos and save all that operational cost.

I believe SU 34 will be acquired but will purely be a more strategic asset available to warn neighbours that we have the reach to strike insurgent camps in their countries if they don't act to proactively remove them. That's all the usefulness of SU 34 to the COIN effort. SU 34s also give capability to effectivrly police the Gulf of Guinea and threaten possible strikes at Libyan terrorist camps if need be.

Like I said, the Tucano is effective and combat proven. However it carries too few stores and is not as long ranged as it should be. It can fire missiles and the like but my guess is that its machine guns will form its primary weaponry in the Nigerian Army inventory. If this is so, it will have to fly really low to engage. And as it's not armored and the insurgents have lots of gun trucks I don't favor it's chances of surviving long.

GabrielYulaw:


The role I see the Sukhoi 34 playing is to launch from Kaduna with extra fuel tanks and stay on station for up to 24 hours with in-flight refueling. That way it can take care of any insurgents that might appear at any time of the day or night. We can buy the tankers or make them ourselves.
The Tucano is no doubt a lovely aircraft with very low operating costs. However, it can only carry 1.5 tons and its top speed is less than 500 knots, Suppose a base is being overrun and its presence is needed fast, can it make it in time since it lacks mach speed and afterburners? I doubt that.
The JF-17 Thunder is also a lovely plane. But it simply carries too little payload and is not armored like the Sukhoi. Plus we are buying pitiful amounts of both. So pitiful that it makes absolutely no sense. What's needed is a heavy multi role aircraft with long range and heavy payload in the range of 8 tons and up. The Sukhoi 34 carries 12 tons, but the only problem is that it is maintenance-intensive.

Until we can improve our defence budget, the Tucano and JF-17s are the most suitable aircrafts we can get.

The cost of running a twin engine aircraft is very, the cost per flight hour and maintenance costs are huge.

However, apart from strategic bombing, i don't see much practical use we have for the SU-34.

The current method with which the Nigerian Air Force conducts operations is impeccable. We don't need to change how we operate, what we need are more aircrafts to be on-station for round the clock operations.

The SU-34 is not necessarily a CAS in the mould of the Tucano. Fast jets such as the JF-17 can provide CAS while we await the Tucano which has an amazing loiter time.

The idea of buying solely from the US is strange to me, we initially placed an order for 3x Tucanos from Brazil, it seems like NAF has shelved that idea.

What the Nigerian Air Force needs are light weight multi-role fighter jets in proper numbers. A minimum of 24 JF-17s. We could add 12 units of SU-34 for strategic bombing, however such a purchase would never happen for the Nigerian Air Force. The service has never purchased a twin engine fighter or fighter-bomber.

SternProphet:




I believe SU 34 will be acquired but will purely be a more strategic asset available to warn neighbours that we have the reach to strike insurgent camps in their countries if they don't act to proactively remove them. That's all the usefulness of SU 34 to the COIN effort. SU 34s also give capability to effectivrly police the Gulf of Guinea and threaten possible strikes at Libyan terrorist camps if need be.

Evidence we have seen suggests an aircraft like the SU-34 would not be acquired by the Nigerian Air Force. However it's an asset i'll be proud to see in NAF service.

GabrielYulaw:


Hello! Just checked your profile. Saw the martial picture. Are you a serving member? In the armed forces I mean.

No Sir.

Henry240:

Until we can improve our defence budget, the Tucano and JF-17s are the most suitable aircrafts we can get.

The cost of running a twin engine aircraft is very, the cost per flight hour and maintenance costs are huge.

However, apart from strategic bombing, i don't see much practical use we have for the SU-34.

The current method with which the Nigerian Air Force conducts operations is impeccable. We don't need to change how we operate, what we need are more aircrafts to be on-station for round the clock operations.

The SU-34 is not necessarily a CAS in the mould of the Tucano. Fast jets such as the JF-17 can provide CAS while we await the Tucano which has an amazing loiter time.

The idea of buying solely from the US is strange to me, we initially placed an order for 3x Tucanos from Brazil, it seems like NAF has shelved that idea.

What the Nigerian Air Force needs are light weight multi-role fighter jets in proper numbers. A minimum of 24 JF-17s. We could add 12 units of SU-34 for strategic bombing, however such a purchase would never happen for the Nigerian Air Force. The service has never purchased a twin engine fighter or fighter-bomber.

This is good. If what I have read in the last hour is implemented such as having these assets in sufficient numbers this war would be going much better and not only that but deter a further resurgence as we now see.

Nigerian Air Force

You have battalions in the NE that have been deployed there for years on end

Guys running around without essential equipment

Mix-matched gear and vehicles that results in ammo and spares shortages

An army that is generally over-stretched with not enough spare battalions to allow for more training and rest

And serious shortfalls in doctrine and officer training - the real cause of the recent FOB losses

You have access to an in-depth assessment made by a highly experienced Nigerian born professional
Yet you are talking as though an Su-34 is the solution?

It’s getting harder and harder to take this place seriously

Henry240:
Nigerian Air Force

Have the new ones arrived yet?

I beleive you ordered the gun-ship variant

patches689:
You have battalions in the NE that have been deployed there for years on end

Guys running around without essential equipment

Mix-matched gear and vehicles that results in ammo and spares shortages

An army that is generally over-stretched with not enough spare battalions to allow for more training and rest

And serious shortfalls in doctrine and officer training - the real cause of the recent FOB losses

You have access to an in-depth assessment made by a highly experienced Nigerian born professional
Yet you are talking as though an Su-34 is the solution?

It’s getting harder and harder to take this place seriously

My apologies but I never implied that buying a Sukhoi would magically win the war. The Sukhoi acquisition would merely be in tandem with deep change in tactics, weapons standardization and optimization, the expanding of the armed forces and the encouragement of innovative thinking to battle unconventional forces.

patches689:
You have battalions in the NE that have been deployed there for years on end

Guys running around without essential equipment

Mix-matched gear and vehicles that results in ammo and spares shortages

An army that is generally over-stretched with not enough spare battalions to allow for more training and rest

And serious shortfalls in doctrine and officer training - the real cause of the recent FOB losses

You have access to an in-depth assessment made by a highly experienced Nigerian born professional
Yet you are talking as though an Su-34 is the solution?

It’s getting harder and harder to take this place seriously

I have heard enough stories about equipment shortfalls to cause me nightmares. And heard of troops being on station for 4 years and up. The Nigerian Army has lots of problems. No one is denying that. These problems appear to have been analyzed in exhaustive detail here, with lots of applicable solutions proffered. However, it seems the army will not admit that it has problems nor take remedial measures. That is the main problem.

patches689:
You have battalions in the NE that have been deployed there for years on end

Guys running around without essential equipment

Mix-matched gear and vehicles that results in ammo and spares shortages

An army that is generally over-stretched with not enough spare battalions to allow for more training and rest

And serious shortfalls in doctrine and officer training - the real cause of the recent FOB losses

You have access to an in-depth assessment made by a highly experienced Nigerian born professional
Yet you are talking as though an Su-34 is the solution?

It’s getting harder and harder to take this place seriously

Doctrine is not a one-size-fits-all in counterinsurgency. You evolve doctrines based on identified gaps in lieu of combat engagements as we see with the NAF bridging the gap between force projection and force protection. Metele was not as a result of a flaw in officer training but ISWAP's transition into a sophisticated enemy not anticipated by dug in forces a situation that any Army would need time to adapt to regardless of how welll trained. Stop fixing square pegs in round holes. There's almost nothing new in that report. The NA will rise to it.

The shortfall right now is funding and equipments to meet the more sophisticated threats we face. Nigeria's junior officers at the front only need strategic leadership from the military high command that is yet to tactically adapt to the realities on the ground. The FOBs have not worked is not an indictment of the young officer you deploy to deter the enemy but an indictment of the overall strategy that calls for change.

GabrielYulaw:


My apologies but I never implied that buying a Sukhoi would magically win the war. The Sukhoi acquisition would merely be in tandem with deep change in tactics, weapons standardization and optimization, the expanding of the armed forces and the encouragement of innovative thinking to battle unconventional forces.

Tell the guy word abeg

GabrielYulaw:


I have heard enough stories about equipment shortfalls to cause me nightmares. And heard of troops being on station for 4 years and up. The Nigerian Army has lots of problems. No one is denying that. These problems appear to have been analyzed in exhaustive detail here, with lots of applicable solutions proffered. However, it seems the army will not admit that it has problems nor take remedial measures. That is the main problem.

The US Army with all its training and equipment have been known to abandon whole strategies for new ones when it's not working same with the British Army. It is not like you are fighting stones they too adapt. The problem right now is the Army leadership continues to stick to the old strategy of far flung FOBs that in all is basically acting as Quartermaster for the enemy in a bid to hold ground and save the C-in-C embarrassment in an election year. It's either that or they want the continued losses to give the President enough pretext to declare a state of emergency and postpone the elections if he feels sufficiently threatened to lose. The fatigue, loss of morale and non-suitable equipment in response to an evolving new type of onslaught is what can befall any army and the response to that is to fall back, re-strategize and mobilize adequately to meet it.

Covert1:


The US Army with all its training and equipment have been known to abandon whole strategies for new ones when it's not working same with the British Army. It is not like you are fighting stones they too adapt. The problem right now is the Army leadership continues to stick to the old strategy of far flung FOBs that in all is basically acting as Quartermaster for the enemy in a bid to hold ground and save the C-in-C embarrassment in an election year. It's either that or they want the continued losses to give the President enough pretext to declare a state of emergency and postpone the elections if he feels sufficiently threatened to lose. The fatigue, loss of morale and non-suitable equipment in response to an evolving new type of onslaught is what can befall any army and the response to that is to fall back, re-strategize and mobilize adequately to meet it.

Hahaha. Lol@ the quartermaster bit.

patches689:
You have battalions in the NE that have been deployed there for years on end

Guys running around without essential equipment

Mix-matched gear and vehicles that results in ammo and spares shortages

An army that is generally over-stretched with not enough spare battalions to allow for more training and rest

And serious shortfalls in doctrine and officer training - the real cause of the recent FOB losses

You have access to an in-depth assessment made by a highly experienced Nigerian born professional
Yet you are talking as though an Su-34 is the solution?

It’s getting harder and harder to take this place seriously

Offence intended.

In your bid to seem smart, you sound rather foolish!

Has there not been an in-depth assessment of Nigerian army losses in the NE over the past weeks with everyone in the military threads chipping in to give their own opinions of the causes, effects and possible solutions to the deteriorating security situation in the NE? Nigerian, Indian, Kenyan, South-African, Algerian, Russian, Cameroonian.......everybody has had a say.

So what now is the problem with guys talking about the SU-34 as a possible option for the Nigerian Air Force? Are we not at liberty to talk about improved assets for the Nigerian military?

Could you not see that all the respondents realize that perhaps the SU-34 might not be the most suitable option for the Nigerian Air Force, however that it still is a strategic asset?

60% of Afghanistan is still largely controlled by the Taliban, does that mean that the US has stopped the procurement of strategic assets? Is the US not the primary security guarantee of the Afghan government?

If you feel it's getting "harder and harder to take this place seriously", you might as well leave. You don't really have much of a value to the thread anyway.

Acquisitions are guided by tactical,strategic and budgetary NEEDS NOT WANTS! A Su 34 was built to take out hardened airfields and SAM sites with tailor made ordnance and PGMs. That tactical engineering has a price which is why its FAC is 65 mn$ with an annual running cost of 7.5 mn$. A 12 ship squadron will cost 800 mn with total running cost of 80mn+$ yearly. When you use them for ground attack roles ofc your sortie rate rises exponentially-AS WILL YOUR FLYING COST!
Look at Russia in Syria:

The operational tempo of Russian air operations in Syria was quite high from the start. In October, an average of 45 sorties per day were carried out by a total of 34 airplanes and 16 helicopters. The pace of the operation also increased over time, rising from approximately 20 sorties per day at the start of the operation to around 60 per day at its initial peak on October 8-9.

https://russiamil./2016/03/17/1837/
Is this doable in Naij?? Obviously not! Yes,you do need ground attack FSBs:rebuilt Su 25s are tailored for this role at 20 mn$,4 T payload and annual cost 3.25 mn$. Imo,you still need light attack planes for the lo roles and its time to bite the bullet and forget the Tuc!! Earliest availability IIRC is 2021 and we should consider the Mwari-I still stand by my earlier statements-its payload of 800 kg on full fuel is too light to be anything more than a poaching/border control platform but with proper TTPs,eg operating in pairs with properly trained ground control and realtime datalink can be effective against BH.
Also Paramount will set up a factory anywhere if demand is guaranteed. Ideally a between Naij and RSA will give Paramount proper guarantees and if moves are made now the first Naij built Mwari can take to the air third quarter 2020.
For now forget the Sue fantasy!

UN MINUSMA

Cameroun BIR

French soldiers/contractor embedded with BIR in operations against separatists.

Covert1:


Doctrine is not a one-size-fits-all in counterinsurgency. You evolve doctrines based on identified gaps in lieu of combat engagements as we see with the NAF bridging the gap between force projection and force protection. Metele was not as a result of a flaw in officer training but ISWAP's transition into a sophisticated enemy not anticipated by dug in forces a situation that any Army would need time to adapt to regardless of how welll trained. Stop fixing square pegs in round holes. There's almost nothing new in that report. The NA will rise to it.

The shortfall right now is funding and equipments to meet the more sophisticated threats we face. Nigeria's junior officers at the front only need strategic leadership from the military high command that is yet to tactically adapt to the realities on the ground. The FOBs have not worked is not an indictment of the young officer you deploy to deter the enemy but an indictment of the overall strategy that calls for change.

Read the reports.

Covert1:


The US Army with all its training and equipment have been known to abandon whole strategies for new ones when it's not working same with the British Army. It is not like you are fighting stones they too adapt. The problem right now is the Army leadership continues to stick to the old strategy of far flung FOBs that in all is basically acting as Quartermaster for the enemy in a bid to hold ground and save the C-in-C embarrassment in an election year. It's either that or they want the continued losses to give the President enough pretext to declare a state of emergency and postpone the elections if he feels sufficiently threatened to lose. The fatigue, loss of morale and non-suitable equipment in response to an evolving new type of onslaught is what can befall any army and the response to that is to fall back, re-strategize and mobilize adequately to meet it.

Fob are where they are because they are planned on being used as - suprise suprise- logistics bases for the start of the next offensive.

Units will use them as starting positions for the next offensive.

Read about how the FOBs fell - they could have held if they had been properly defended.

Henry240:

Offence intended.

In your bid to seem smart, you sound rather foolish!

Has there not been an in-depth assessment of Nigerian army losses in the NE over the past weeks with everyone in the military threads chipping in to give their own opinions of the causes, effects and possible solutions to the deteriorating security situation in the NE? Nigerian, Indian, Kenyan, South-African, Algerian, Russian, Cameroonian.......everybody has had a say.

So what now is the problem with guys talking about the SU-34 as a possible option for the Nigerian Air Force? Are we not at liberty to talk about improved assets for the Nigerian military?

Could you not see that all the respondents realize that perhaps the SU-34 might not be the most suitable option for the Nigerian Air Force, however that it still is a strategic asset?

60% of Afghanistan is still largely controlled by the Taliban, does that mean that the US has stopped the procurement of strategic assets? Is the US not the primary security guarantee of the Afghan government?

If you feel it's getting "harder and harder to take this place seriously", you might as well leave. You don't really have much of a value to the thread anyway.

Hahahahahaha

Salty henry120, you love provoking us South Africans and ironically get provoked when I wasn’t even trying!

Serious discussion broke you and caused to to write the angry (ridiculous) tirade above!
I can just see the tears streaming down your face as you typed that - the anger, the resentment, the indignity!

You’re a child.

patches689:


[s]Hahahahahaha

Salty henry120, you love provoking us South Africans and ironically get provoked when I wasn’t even trying!

Serious discussion broke you and caused to to write the angry (ridiculous) tirade above!
I can just see the tears streaming down your face as you typed that - the anger, the resentment, the indignity!

You’re a child. [/s]

Grow up.

Henry240:

Grow up.

learn to control your emotions.

patches689:


learn to control your emotions.

Guys please enough. Let it ride. It's simply not worth it. We are all here to learn from each other.

patches689:


Fob are where they are because they are planned on being used as - suprise suprise- logistics bases for the start of the next offensive.

Units will use them as starting positions for the next offensive.

Read about how the FOBs fell - they could have held if they had been properly defended.

Why put a logisitics base so near the front? And why not properly defend it?

Henry240:
Cameroun BIR

French soldiers/contractor embedded with BIR in operations against separatists.

Are these French soldiers performing actual combat roles, or just training?

Is it that time of the month again? I sense a full blown cat fight about to break out.

If everyone just took time to think of how some of their comments might rub others the wrong way.... This thread could have actually matured enough to be used/visited as a reference point by professionals in the military and defence circles by now ....(eg an army spokesperson could be visiting the sight and then gain insight into different sujjestions or complaints or problems and actually forward that up the chain of command) We could have been getting occasional e-visits by actuall commanders and generals looking for comments about operations conducted by his soldiers or insight into what's happening in other African countries and what people opinions about it......

Nigerian Air Force MI-35M

GabrielYulaw:


Why put a logisitics base so near the front? And why not properly defend it?

Location is a question for senior officers. Why it wasn’t poorly defended is a question for junior officers.

It seems Nigeria is following the only really effective COIN strategy there is - take, hold, clear. except Boko decided to try to interrupt the “hold” stage

Read the reports @frumentus posted - they are very detailed

GabrielYulaw:


I think you just spoke my mind I remember saying we should buy the Sukhoi 34 and lots of them and a Nairalander rebuked me saying we don't have the funds. lol. This insurgency costs us tens of billions of dollars yearly both directly and indirectly. So no amount is too big to spend buying the right armaments to properly fight it.

Stinginess and lack of proper maintenance culture will not allow us acquire Sukhois. At least thank God for the current CAS, things are better in terms of operational efficiency.

In any case, I think acquiring Saab Gripens will be much better than JF-17s. It may be a bit more expensive, but from what we know, it's has a very high range, low cost of maintenance and a higher payload. And of course, from my knowledge of Swedish internal politics, there will be little to no bottlenecks because those guys are very willing to assist us fight terrorism.

If we want to buy cheap single engine fighters, then at least we should buy good ones, not experimental products. The JF17 is good, but I think the Gripen is better. Half a dozen Yak-130 will also do a lot to improve ground attack capabilities if we want to go the twin engine route, certainly better than those turbo-props we bought for 2/3 of a billion dollars.