Mcy56:
@jideflash, what is happening to nem now? I saw it at 2.11 and thought I saw bonanza price just for it to go down low again.

Hope bigjoe sold at 3 sha

MRS Oil Nigeria MD/CEO Resigns With Immediate Effect
https://businesspost.ng/2019/01/10/mrs-oil-nigeria-md-ceo-resigns-with-immediate-effect/

CBN to Auction N823.5b Fresh Treasury Bills in Q1 2019
https://businesspost.ng/2019/01/10/cbn-to-auction-n823-5b-fresh-treasury-bills-in-q1-2019/

Agbalowomeri:


You will all get Access at 4.20
Calm down

Agba has spoken!

Agbalowomeri:


I wouldn't think that is logical

Ok then, the motive is defeated. It means, we are saying Access bank current price is right and Diamond bank price should go lower which the market doesn't believe since we are having more bids than offer at its current price which means DBN price still has to go higher to reach equilibrium to the right price of Access based on the deal.

Agbalowomeri:


You will all get Access at 4.20
Calm down

The lower the price, the better...

Jejebabaa:


Ok then, the motive is defeated. It means, we are saying Access bank current price is right and Diamond bank price should go lower which the market doesn't believe since we are having more bids than offer at its current price which means DBN price still has to go higher to reach equilibrium to the right price of Access based on the deal.

If Access gets to 4 and diamond remains at ca. 2, would you rather buy access or diamond?

Agbalowomeri:


If Access gets to 4 and diamond remains at ca. 2, would you rather buy access or diamond?

Based on the deal and provided all things being equal, its best to buy Diamond.
7000 units of Diamond that cost 14,000 naira will give me 2000 units of Access + additional 7000 naira which will total 15,000 naira. A gain of extra 1,000 naira. After the deal, it will be a different story on what the market priced Access to be.

The only reason to buy access at 4 naira is if the deal is reversed.

Modified

Jejebabaa:


Based on the deal and provided all things being equal, its best to buy Diamond.
7000 units of Diamond that cost 14,000 naira will give me 2000 units of Access + additional 7000 naira which will total 15,000 naira. A gain of extra 1,000 naira. After the deal, it will be a different story on what the market priced Access to be.

The only reason to buy access at 4 naira is if the deal is reversed.

What if the deal fail?

pls is zenith good at 21.45?

Mcy56:
@jideflash, what is happening to nem now? I saw it at 2.11 and thought I saw bonanza price just for it to go down low again.

VFD Group, alongside Eaton Acquisition Limited, Three Seas Investment and Premium Green Limited have exited NEM Insurance Plc. Sources familiar with the transaction disclosed this to Nairametrics.

A combined block of one billion, six hundred million (1,600,000,000) ordinary shares of the issued share capital of the company, representing about 30% of the latter’s capital, was sold to new shareholders .
https://nairametrics.com/vfd-and-other-key-stakeholders-exit-nem-insurance/

So who are the new guys on board next investigation

Chibuking81:

What if the deal fail?

The likelihood of failure is diminishing by the day.
I use Diamond bank, and already I see access in my alerts. It appears they have already gone far in business integration.

Jejebabaa:


At current price of Diamond of 1.90.
if you have 7000 units, you will get 2000 units of Access and extra 1 naira cash per unit of Diamond.
your Diamond worth is (7000X 1.90) sums up to 13,300 naira equals 7000 naira and 2000 units of Access right.
2000 units of Access equals 13,300-7000 naira
2000 units of Access equals 6,300 naira
1 unit of Access equals 6,300naira/2000
1 unit of Access equals 3.15 naira

I hope this helps in RabbiDoracle way of explanation

Correct but for a much easier grasp, let's simplify it a bit.

A quick math;
Merger valuation of DIAMOND = N3.13
Cash consideration = N1
Therefore Effective allotment price of DIAMOND = N2.13
Current Price of DIAMOND =N1.90
Effective allotment price of ACCESS = V
Price of ACCESS equivalent to the current price of DIAMOND = Y
We need to find V and Y. ...where the value of Y should be our target price for ACCESS in relation to the trending price of DIAMOND.

According to the scheme of merger, 7 equity holding in DIAMOND shall be equivalent to 2 in ACCESS.
...therefore a 3.5(7/2) equity stake in DIAMOND shall equal an equity stake(1 unit) of ACCESS.
The arithmetic view of this is that an approx N7.45 (3.5 X N2.13) value in DIAMOND equates with 1 unit of ACCESS.
...this is the effective allotment price of ACCESS, hence V= N7.45.
Now to find Y, we need to 1st find the deriavable post merger value in DIAMOND. Which would be = current market price - cash consideration = N1.90 - N1 = 90k(u buy now for N1.90 and get back N1 in time)
Therefore a N3.15(3.50 X 0.90) monetary value in DIAMOND shall equate to a unit of ACCESS. ...hence Y = N3.15
The interpretation of this is that N3.15 is what ACCESS should be selling now relative to the current price of DIAMOND !!

To find Y(what price a unit of ACCESS should sell relative to that of DIAMOND) at any point in time, simply use the formula, [3.50 X (current market price of DIAMOND - 1)]
From the formula, u do not need a soothsayer to tell u that the prices of both coys are mutually inclusive and directly proportional to one another.
Sure u can decipher the rest.

Regards.

Jejebabaa:
Are we sure we will be able to buy quite reasonable units at bonanza prices. Looking at the total offer quantities of FCMB, its just 3.34M units which is less than 6.2M naira. To me, it looks like volumes are drying up. We need more liquidity pls or am i a learner. It will be painful to buy at higher prices during election week as a result of volumes issue.

Mpeace:
The likelihood of failure is diminishing by the day.
I use Diamond bank, and already I see access in my alerts. It appears they have already gone far in business integration.

At the completion of the deal, with the delisting of diamond bank from NSE, assuming diamond bank will be at #2 and Access bank at #5, what will be the effect in price of Access bank, will the two price merge immediately, or will it price in as trading goes on?.
Am not comfortable with the right issue move by access bank, because it will bring their price down. Is like getting additional money from their shareholders to buy Diamond bank, and if they ended up in Right issue their price might drop further to #2/#3, with more volume of share from right issue and Diamond bank.

onegentleguy:

I sent mail to you ... Do you prefer the message here?

onegentleguy:


Correct but for a much easier grasp, let's simplify it a bit.

A quick math;
Merger valuation on DIAMOND = N3.13
Effective allotment price of DIAMOND = N2.13
Cash consideration = N1
Current Price of DIAMOND =N1.90
Effective allotment price of ACCESS = V
Price of ACCESS equivalent to the current price of DIAMOND = Y
We need to find V and Y. ...where the value of Y should be our target price for ACCESS in relation to the trending price of DIAMOND.

According to the scheme of merger, 7 equity holding in DIAMOND shall be equivalent to 2 in ACCESS.
...therefore a 3.5(7/2) equity stake in DIAMOND shall equal an equity stake(1 unit) of ACCESS.
The arithmetic view of this is that an approx N7.45 (3.5 X N2.13) value in DIAMOND equates with 1 unit of ACCESS.
...this is the effective allotment price of ACCESS, hence V= N7.55.
Now to find Y, we need to 1st find the deriavable post merger value in DIAMOND. Which would be = current market price - cash consideration = N1.90 - N1 = 90k(u buy now for N1.90 and get back N1 in time)
Therefore a N3.15(3.50 X 0.90) monetary value in DIAMOND shall equate to a unit of ACCESS. ...hence Y = N3.15
The interpretation of this is that N3.15 is what ACCESS should be selling now relative to the current price of DIAMOND !!

To find Y(what price a unit of ACCESS should sell relative to that of DIAMOND) at any point in time, simply use the formula, [3.50 X (current market price of DIAMOND - 1)]
From the formula, u do not need a soothsayer to tell u that the prices of both coys are mutually inclusive and directly proportional to one another.
Sure u can decipher the rest.

Regards.

You are a sound mathematician. You capture my thoughts exactly. Unfortunately, i did not know how to express it the way you just did.
Thanks Sir Sinclair.

WATCHING SO MUCH ACTIVITY ON DIAMOND.

WHILE TRANSCORP IS JUST MOVING LIKE A SNAIL, WELL ISSORAIT

Jejebabaa:


You are a sound mathematician. You capture my thoughts exactly. Unfortunately, i did not know how to express it the way you just did.
Thanks Sir Sinclair.

My Pleasure Sir !!
It's important to however highlight that the price of ACCESS may likely not drop down that low. ...particularly in the short term.
Which is also why it makes sense to believe that the price of DIAMOND will likely remain strong within the stipulated merger timeframe.
If one can read between the lines, they should know which of the 2 is best to align with. ...I already said as much here in the past.(see the last 2 sentences of the post above)

CAVEAT: NOT to be referenced as any sought of recommendation. ...due diligence is still advised as always pls.

jideflash:
VFD Group, alongside Eaton Acquisition Limited, Three Seas Investment and Premium Green Limited have exited NEM Insurance Plc. Sources familiar with the transaction disclosed this to Nairametrics.

A combined block of one billion, six hundred million (1,600,000,000) ordinary shares of the issued share capital of the company, representing about 30% of the latter’s capital, was sold to new shareholders .
https://nairametrics.com/vfd-and-other-key-stakeholders-exit-nem-insurance/

So who are the new guys on board next investigation

Thank you.
No wonder the price is shedding.... but people just like to entertain fear anyhow.
I hope the new investor is equally up to the task anyway. Another bonanza loading.

It is like people are selling access to buy Diamond.

veecovee:
I sent mail to you ... Do you prefer the message here?

...Alright.
Will check on it later and revert.

Regards.

BMZK:
It is like people are selling access to buy Diamond.

Some guys are codedly offloading..... that's what I observed.
Hope I'm safe.

8,154 Unit ...since 3yrs ago..nse fraud...this can never happen in usa where you will get Subpoena notice from the SEC or FBI.

Mcy56:

Some guys are codedly offloading..... that's what I observed.
Hope I'm safe.

I notice any bid at N5.20 is immediately supplied. Heavy supplier at that junction under mask

tritritri:
8,154 Unit ...since 3yrs ago..nse fraud...this can never happen in usa where you will get Subpoena notice from the SEC or FBI.

As in eh....

Yesterday was 20k+

But i don't think there is really anything wrong with that.

BMZK:
It is like people are selling access to buy Diamond.

Access MM selling to pump Diamond bank, to buy their desired price since they has stake in Diamond.

BMZK:
I notice any bid at N5.20 is immediately supplied. Heavy supplier at that junction under mask

Yeah, noticed that too.
NSE na wa. Lots of irregularities going on behind camera.

Mcy56:

Yeah, noticed that too.
NSE na wa. Lots of irregularities going on behind camera.

How's that one an irregularity?

The way access go pump will surprise many

Michael11stock:
The way access go pump will surprise many

After the right issue you mean in few mth time?

mendes911:
How's that one an irregularity?

Newbie talk
Just made that statement generally anyway, not particular about any stock.