I reside in Warri South LGA (warri precisely) bt work around Delta Central(Urhobo speaking area of Delta State).
The Urhobo's have the highest voting strength in the state with 8 LGA and they don't want Okowa to continue. A vast majority on the streets are for Ogboru (APC Gubernatorial Candidates). This is posing a big problem for PDP in Delta State as the average urhobo man thinks a vote for Atiku would increase Okowa's chances of clinching the state, so many though would agree with you that Buhari hasn't performed but they think a Vote for Buhari is a Vote for Ogboru. Simply put APC on the street leads in Delta Central which happens to have the highest voting strength in the state.
Now Delta south has 3 tribes; Itsekiri, Isoko and Ijaw. Here is a battle ground as the Itsekiri thinks it's their turn to produce the zones senator(The Isoko's has, James manager is presently there is Ijaw). Now in warri main town within Delta South the Itsekiri's(a minority tribe though) are rooting for Uduaghan for senate and thus rooting for Buhari. Within the riverine are many Itsekiri villages that have produced shocking numbers during past election.
The tussle for who produces the next senator between the Itsekiri's and Ijaw's may divide the PDP's presidential vote in Delta South(Itsekiri's on one side, the Ijaw's on the other side and the Isoko's in the middle).
I hate to say this because a win for Buhari is a step backward but if the reality on the streets in warri and all of delta central region e. g ughelli, sapele, Jeddo etc transcends into votes Buhari would get up to 50% of the votes in Delta State. Not out of love but because of the yearning for a change of government within the state and a touch of tribal politics.

Delta sure desires a change of government but it is very difficult at the moment because the Urhobos believe in rotation, they will vote for Okowa and expect to take over in 2023.
Besides, out of the 8 Urhobo local government, PDP controls up to 4 if I'm not mistaken. Test only sure local government for APC is Ughelli north and south, Ethiope east While PDP has Ethiope West as their biggest stronghold due to Ibori (I'm from Ethiope West).

That being said, Buhari won't get 40% OP, don't allow those noise to deceive you.

APC may have a slim chance in the gubernatorial election but in for the presidential one.

kingkakaone:
Delta sure desires a change of government but it is very difficult at the moment because the Urhobos believe in rotation, they will vote for Okowa and expect to take over in 2023.
Besides, out of the 8 Urhobo local government, PDP controls up to 4 if I'm not mistaken. Test only sure local government for APC is Ughelli north and south, Ethiope east While PDP has Ethiope West as their biggest stronghold due to Ibori (I'm from Ethiope West).

That being said, Buhari won't get 40% OP, don't allow those noise to deceive you.

APC may have a slim chance in the gubernatorial election but in for the presidential one.

I don't know if u leave within Delta. because on the streets in warri and environs the Urhobo's dnt wont Okowa and are thus rooting for APC all d way.
N. B Personally I wud vote Atiku for presidency and Ogboru for state..... I which other Deltans can think like me

kingkakaone:
Delta sure desires a change of government but it is very difficult at the moment because the Urhobos believe in rotation, they will vote for Okowa and expect to take over in 2023.
Besides, out of the 8 Urhobo local government, PDP controls up to 4 if I'm not mistaken. Test only sure local government for APC is Ughelli north and south, Ethiope east While PDP has Ethiope West as their biggest stronghold due to Ibori (I'm from Ethiope West).

That being said, Buhari won't get 40% OP, don't allow those noise to deceive you.

APC may have a slim chance in the gubernatorial election but in for the presidential one.

Why do you think the Urhobos will want to wait till 2023 when they have a good chance in Ogboru who is very popular in Delta state?

As things stand and as the poster stated, PMB has a huge chance of winning Delta state because of the big politicians on his side. Omo-Agege and Ogboru alone can do wonders. Plus the fact that Itsekiri and Urhobos are rooting for PMB.

sebali:

I don't know if u leave within Delta. because on the streets in warri and environs the Urhobo's dnt wont Okowa and are thus rooting for APC all d way.
N. B Personally I wud vote Atiku for presidency and Ogboru for state..... I which other Deltans can think like me

Your observation is very correct. I have relatives and friends in Warri and Isoko and the sentiments are same as you posted. They will largely vote for Buhari and Ogboru. Okowa needs a big miracle to survive. Buhari will score nothing less than 40% in Delta state if he doesn't win there.

this has alway been d case right from d days of ibori but okowa will still win.rigging in delta state is 100% sure

kingkakaone:
Delta sure desires a change of government but it is very difficult at the moment because the Urhobos believe in rotation, they will vote for Okowa and expect to take over in 2023.
Besides, out of the 8 Urhobo local government, PDP controls up to 4 if I'm not mistaken. Test only sure local government for APC is Ughelli north and south, Ethiope east While PDP has Ethiope West as their biggest stronghold due to Ibori (I'm from Ethiope West).

That being said, Buhari won't get 40% OP, don't allow those noise to deceive you.

APC may have a slim chance in the gubernatorial election but in for the presidential one.

Do you leave in Delta state? Cos on the street in warri and it's environs e. g Jeddo, Udu etc the Urhobo's are rooting for APC.
Surely These 3 LGA would deliver for APC; Ughelli North and South and Udu... Uvwie is dicey, may go either way..... My assessment is base on word on the street.

N. B I would vote Atiku for Presidency and Ogboru For Governor. I believe we need change at both levels and I pray other Deltans do the same

Lol..... Unfortunately how many voters do analysis like this. Shey na the Okada man wey go busy from morning till nite go dey analyze?
Shey na bus driver, pepper sellers??

The fact that there is hunger in the land, this people discuss between themselves and conclude on whom they want.
The truth is for you to have a landslide vote without rigging, you must take care of hunger first.

Abfinest007:
this has alway been d case right from d days of ibori but okowa will still win.rigging in delta state is 100% sure

Not when you have Ogboru and Omo-Agege as your opponents.

Ogboru himself is a street guy. So that rigging will be countered.

sebali:


Do you leave in Delta state? Cos on the street in warri and it's environs e. g Jeddo, Udu etc the Urhobo's are rooting for APC.
Surely These 3 LGA would deliver for APC; Ughelli North and South and Udu... Uvwie is dicey, may go either way..... My assessment is base on word on the street.

N. B I would vote Atiku for Presidency and Ogboru For Governor. I believe we need change at both levels and I pray other Deltans do the same

How many local governments of Urhobos do u think APC can win with a wide margin aside the ones u listed?

BTW, u just discussed about Central and Southern pasts of Delta State, what about Delta North that is also a PDP stronghold?

The odds favours PDP in the state.

Abfinest007:
this has alway been d case right from d days of ibori but okowa will still win.rigging in delta state is 100% sure

Rigging as an opposition or a ruling party?

Have they successfully rigged as an Opposition party since the creation of the State?

kingkakaone:
Delta sure desires a change of government but it is very difficult at the moment because the Urhobos believe in rotation, they will vote for Okowa and expect to take over in 2023.
Besides, out of the 8 Urhobo local government, PDP controls up to 4 if I'm not mistaken. Test only sure local government for APC is Ughelli north and south, Ethiope east While PDP has Ethiope West as their biggest stronghold due to Ibori (I'm from Ethiope West).

That being said, Buhari won't get 40% OP, don't allow those noise to deceive you.

APC may have a slim chance in the gubernatorial election but in for the presidential one.

Thanks for this analysis bro
How is Oghara people? I'm really missing them especially the Urhobo gospel songs and dance.

Abfinest007:
this has alway been d case right from d days of ibori but okowa will still win.rigging in delta state is 100% sure

This time it would be harder for PDP to have the smooth sailing rigging they use to enjoy in the state because the likes of Senator Omoagege, APC federal are on the other side.

disturbedman:

Not when you have Ogboru and Omo-Agege as your opponents.

Ogboru himself is a retired soldier and a street guy. So that rigging will be countered.

I can bet u that okowa will still carry d day

disturbedman:

Not when you have Ogboru and Omo-Agege as your opponents.

Ogboru himself is a retired soldier and a street guy. So that rigging will be countered.

When Ogboru become soldier?
Stop talking about what you don't know.

His connection with Omo-Agege is something to be feared but he has never been in the military.

People are getting wiser by the day, vote the candidate and not the party...Meanwhile, learn to trade and earn forex online...

Abfinest007:
I can bet u that okowa will still carry d day

It's easier for Atiku to beat Buhari than for Okowa to defeat Ogboru in Delta state of today.

Abfinest007:
I can bet u that okowa will still carry d day

He may carry the day if he wins squarely but he may also lose out.

There would high riggings on both sides. And whoever controls the police and INEC will Nick it.

Brother you're right to some extent! It's difficult convincing those from Delta central against The lifeless one because Okowa fail very well. I think Buhari will be getting some block vote from the Urhobo and Iseke land, but won't get more than 40% in delta because rigging is mostly done in the riverine area which is mostly dominated by the ijaws . For me I want Buhari and Okowa to go home and rest . They are both the definition of failure.

kingkakaone:

When Ogboru become soldier?
Stop talking about what you don't know.

His connection with Omo-Agege is something to be feared but he has never been in the military.

You're right he was never a military guy but he had a connection with a coup to remove Babangida in 1990.
So, he's very well connected.

drtwist:
Brother you're right to some extent! It's difficult convincing those from Delta central against The lifeless one because Okowa fail very well. I think Buhari will be getting some block vote from the Urhobo and Iseke land, but won't get more than 40% in delta because rigging is mostly done in the riverine area which is mostly dominated by the ijaws . For me I want Buhari and Okowa to go home and rest . They are both the definition of failure.

This is what I align with - Buhari will get nothing less than 40% in Delta. Ogboru may eventually beat Okowa inthe gubernatorial election since both are not taking place at the same time.

disturbedman:

Why do you think the Urhobos will want to wait till 2023 when they have a good chance in Ogboru who is very popular in Delta state?

As things stand and as the poster stated, PMB has a huge chance of winning Delta state because of the big politicians on his side. Omo-Agege and Ogboru alone can do wonders. Plus the fact that Itsekiri and Urhobos are rooting for PMB.

The Urhobos always go with the rotation policy if not Okowa wouldn't have succeeded in the last election.
Do you know that Okowa won about 21 local governments in that election?

Also, one fact you and the OP are keeping out is the unified Delta North. They will root for Okowa.

Okowa has a chance of winning up to 4 local governmens in Delta Central while he can win warri South through Ejele and Isoko through Leo Of.

The odds are against Ogboru.

kingkakaone:

The Urhobos always go with the rotation policy if not Okowa wouldn't have succeeded in the last election.
Do you know that Okowa won about 21 local governments in that election?

Also, one fact you and the OP are keeping out is the unified Delta North. They will root for Okowa.

Okowa has a chance of winning up to 4 local governmens in Delta Central while he can win warri South through Ejele and Isoko through Leo Of.

The odds are against Ogboru.

Let's wait and see. But I believe Ogboru has never had a better chance than now.

BIAFRONIGERIAN:


Thanks for this analysis bro
How is Oghara people? I'm really missing them especially the Urhobo gospel songs and dance.

They are fine o...I miss it too. Here in PH we don't do those dances and all that is why every time I'm on leave, I visit my mom and sisters plus the Delta way of life and the church things.

U wouldn't believe I told my friend when I returned from Delta that I felt like satisfied,
Ike someone missing a part of himself.

Delta life is sweet sha.

disturbedman:

Let's wait and see. But I believe Ogboru has never had a better chance than now.

Yeah bro, u are right. His chances are very high because he opted for a bigger party now unlike his past outings where he comes with smaller parties.

This is the best thread in nairaland so far. I haven't seen any insult on anyone's opinion here.

sebali:
I reside in Warri South LGA (warri precisely) bt work around Delta Central(Urhobo speaking area of Delta State).
The Urhobo's have the highest voting strength in the state with 8 LGA and they don't want Okowa to continue. A vast majority on the streets are for Ogboru (APC Gubernatorial Candidates). This is posing a big problem for PDP in Delta State as the average urhobo man thinks a vote for Atiku would increase Okowa's chances of clinching the state, so many though would agree with you that Buhari hasn't performed but they think a Vote for Buhari is a Vote for Ogboru. Simply put APC on the street leads in Delta Central which happens to have the highest voting strength in the state.
Now Delta south has 3 tribes; Itsekiri, Isoko and Ijaw. Here is a battle ground as the Itsekiri thinks it's their turn to produce the zones senator(The Isoko's has, James manager is presently there is Ijaw). Now in warri main town within Delta South the Itsekiri's(a minority tribe though) are rooting for Uduaghan for senate and thus rooting for Buhari. Within the riverine are many Itsekiri villages that have produced shocking numbers during past election.
The tussle for who produces the next senator between the Itsekiri's and Ijaw's may divide the PDP's presidential vote in Delta South(Itsekiri's on one side, the Ijaw's on the other side and the Isoko's in the middle).
I hate to say this because a win for Buhari is a step backward but if the reality on the streets in warri and all of delta central region e. g ughelli, sapele, Jeddo etc transcends into votes Buhari would get up to 50% of the votes in Delta State. Not out of love but because of the yearning for a change of government within the state and a touch of tribal politics.

A delta man vote for buhari.
.God forbid. i urhobo and never votig for bihari. maybe ogboru..we need change

disturbedman:

Let's wait and see. But I believe Ogboru has never had a better chance than now.

I agree with you totally.
This is his best chance and he knows it too.

kingkakaone:
This is the best thread in nairaland so far.
I haven't seen any insult on anyone's opinion here.

You just took it out of my mouth.

BIAFRONIGERIAN:


Thanks for this analysis bro
How is Oghara people? I'm really missing them especially the Urhobo gospel songs and dance.

Oghara is cool. Remains Ibori's strong hold.
No Gospel beats Urhobo gospel. Especially when you have experienced clappers and a good bassist

kingkakaone:

The Urhobos always go with the rotation policy if not Okowa wouldn't have succeeded in the last election.
Do you know that Okowa won about 21 local governments in that election?

Also, one fact you and the OP are keeping out is the unified Delta North. They will root for Okowa.

Okowa has a chance of winning up to 4 local governmens in Delta Central while he can win warri South through Ejele and Isoko through Leo Of.

The odds are against Ogboru.

The odds favour Ogboru cos on a free and fair basest Ogboru would sweep Delta central.... Urhobos do not believe in any rotation policy, they believe the governors seat is their right as the majority tribe in delta state.
Who be Ejele? to deliver Warri south, he is a new comer with politics who won't move mountains.
Sick Leo Ogor or another one. Leo Ogor has being abroad for abt a year.... He is sick and won his pry election in absential. He can do nothing bro

What a thread!!!! I'm enjoying the comments keep them rolling Lol