GOING by the February 7 report of New York-based global research and political risk solutions firm Eurasia Group, President Muhammadu Buhari will win Saturday’s election by 60 per cent.

The group, which undertakes investment partnerships, consultancy and risk advisory responsibilities in about 100 countries, said the odds against Buhari’s main challenger, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), have positioned the incumbent to retain his seat.

It identified the odds as the divided support being enjoyed by the former vice president from key elements in the rival party.

Such elements, according to the Eurasia Group, would rather exert their energies and resources on the battle to retain their seats in their various constituencies.

The group listed such actors as the governors in the PDP-controlled states and the Director-General of the Atiku Presidential Campaign Organisation, Senator Bukola Saraki, who is battling to retain his seat in the upper chamber as the representative of the Kwara Central Senatorial Zone.

The report said: “As we have previously noted, key actors in Atiku’s camp – including his campaign’s Director -General Bukola Saraki, key powerbroker Governor Nyesom Wike of the oil-rich Rivers State, and Southeast governors from his PDP – had been disengaged from his election campaign.

“Wike was annoyed by Atiku’s failure to consult him on key decisions, Saraki remains distracted by a tough Senate reelection battle in Kwara State, and the Southeast governors are hampered by many conflicting motivations, including their own lack of political clout (which makes them reluctant to overtly challenge the federal government) and their wariness of Atiku’s running mate Peter Obi, a former governor of the southeastern Anambra State who they view as a political outsider.

“The lack of enthusiasm on the part of some PDP governors is a problem for Atiku because these officials control significant discretionary funds at the state level (known as “security votes”) that are easier to access without triggering graft concerns.

“They can also leverage strong relationships with security, judicial, and election officers in their respective states. Governors are thus critical to mobilising voter turnout on Election Day.

“With 23 in office compared to the PDP’s 12, the APC already has an edge; unmotivated PDP governors will only reinforce that advantage by making it harder for the opposition to mobilise and sustain voter support on Election Day.”

Two APC governors, Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto) and Benue State counterpart Samuel Ortom, defected to the PDP last year. But the governors are battling to win their states for their new parties.

On the edge the incumbent has over Atiku, the Eurasia Group said President Buhari’s All Progressives Congress (APC) has a widespread political structure to boost voter mobilisation and solidify Buhari’s advantage.

The group noted that the heightened anxiety triggered by the suspension of Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN) Justice Walter Onnoghen by President Buhari was not enough to turn the table against the incumbent.



CJN Onnoghen was suspended by the President on January 25 following allegations on false declaration of assets against him by the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB). The CCB has since charged the CJN before the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT).

Justice Onnoghen is expected to submit his response to the charges against him to the National Judicial Council (NJC) today.

The group ruled out the possibility of protests against Buhari’s victory.

It said: “These trends support our view that widespread violence is unlikely following the 16 February vote. We have repeatedly argued that Atiku’s voters do not match Buhari’s in passion and are unlikely to risk their lives on the streets for him.

“Though Buhari’s decision to suspend the Chief Justice triggered widespread criticism and stoked passions (along with fears about a more Buhari second term), many voters blame the judiciary for not moving quickly to force CJN Onnoghen’s resignation after he admitted he had violated rules regarding declaration of assets.

Thus should Atiku lose, as we expect, there will be few motivated stakeholders to encourage or instigate serious violence. Instead, we expect PDP governors to quickly turn their attention to fighting to retain their own jobs in the state elections on March 2.”


http://thenationonlineng.net/report-buharill-win-60/

Visible to the blind

Audible to the deaf

We are focusing on 2023

2019 is sealed

60% of Daura votes ba?

nah so.Allow online fl@theads pigs,fat Rhino bob dee to dey deceive Ati'aku Frimpong El Cameroonian.Bob dee dey look for Ministerial position (probably avenue to loot his own) Ati'aku will cry/wail on the 18th

Lol, they have not been following events in the past couple days and weeks. Loyalties have quickly shifted and deals have already been sealed. Tinubu knows what is happening but he has no control over power brokerage in the north so he's focusing on his regional control

Buhari will be thrashed across the length and breath of Nigeria.

It will be a coronation of Atiku as the next president on February 16th. Niigeria is atikulated and the movement is unstoppable!

Bye bye buhari.

paq1:
Buhari will be thrashed across the length and breath of Nigeria.

It will be a coronation of Atiku as the next president on February 16th. Niigeria is atikulated and the movement is unstoppable!

Bye bye buhari.

Saturday is not very far again

kahal29:


Saturday is not very far again

I will surely cheer you up as the verdict returns: Nigerians are more than buharideens.

A research group "New York research global" quoting "Eurasia group" (another research group).... and the news delivered by "The Nation's news"



Goes to show that Eurasia Analysis was propaganda.

I predict a 57% - 43% for APC: PDP . Votes between both parties is estimated in that ratio

Last minutes rush for FAKE NEWS!

Does anyone have the link to the 2015 presidential poll on nairaland .

I want to compare it with 2019 to see the actual truth.

dokyOloye:
60% of Daura votes ba?

No, 60% of great Nigerians vote.

It's going to be tight, but Buhari will win las las. Then ipob flat*head will start crying of wanting Biafra*ud again. Then python dance would be used to wipe there ass seriously.

By this time next week, the crying would begin.

Atiku, Saraki, FFK and ipob piggz will cry their eyes to stupor

Eurasia Group, reputed as the world’s largest political-risk consultancy, says President Muhammadu Buhari will win the February 16 presidential election.

In its final Eurasia Group Politics First election forecast seen by TheCable, the group, which was founded in 1998 by American political scientist Ian Bremmer, said Buhari has a 60 percent probability to win.

“Opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar has regained some momentum in recent weeks, but President Muhammadu Buhari remains favored to win (a 60% probability),” the group said.

“On election day, the ruling All Progressives Congress’s (APC’s) significantly greater control of local political structures and resources—it governs 23 states compared to the opposition’s 12—will boost voter mobilization and solidify Buhari’s advantage.”

In 2015, Eurasia Group tipped Buhari to defeat former president Goodluck Jonathan, changing its stance some weeks to the election, after it had initially chosen the former president to win.

At the time, the group said although it initially tipped “President Goodluck Jonathan for re-election, a number of factors had since changed, and the pendulum had swung to the Buhari’s side”.

1. ONNOGHEN WILL NOT AFFECT ELECTIONS

The group said the decision of President Muhammadu Buhari to suspend Walter Onnoghen, the embattled Chief Justice of Nigeria, will not affect the elections.

“Positive news coverage in recent weeks, along with Buhari’s controversial move to suspend Chief Justice Walter Onnoghen over allegations of corruption, have boosted Atiku’s campaign, but it is too late to change the electoral dynamics and Buhari remains favored to win on 16 February,” the group said.

“As we have previously noted, key actors in Atiku’s camp—including his campaign’s director general Bukola Saraki, key powerbroker Governor Nyesom Wike of the oil-rich Rivers state, and southeast governors from his People’s Democratic Party (PDP)—had been disengaged from his election campaign”.

2. WIKE ANNOYED, SARAKI DISTRACTED

The group added that Atiku’s big players have been disengaged from his political campaign, adding that governors of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will be fighting to ensure they win their own elections.

“Wike was annoyed by Atiku’s failure to consult him on key decisions, Saraki remains distracted by a tough Senate reelection battle in Kwara state, and the southeast governors are hampered by many conflicting motivations, including their own lack of political clout (which makes them reluctant to overtly challenge the federal government) and their wariness of Atiku’s running mate Peter Obi, a former governor of the southeastern Anambra state who they view as a political outsider.

“The lack of enthusiasm on the part of some PDP governors is a problem for Atiku because these officials control significant discretionary funds at the state level (known as ‘security votes’) that are easier to access without triggering graft concerns.”

3. ATIKU’S SUPPORTERS NOT WILLING TO DIE FOR HIM

The group concluded by saying “Atiku’s voters do not match Buhari’s in passion and are unlikely to risk their lives on the streets for him”.

“Though Buhari’s decision to suspend the chief justice triggered widespread criticism and stoked passions (along with fears about a more autocratic Buhari second term), many voters blame the judiciary for not moving quicker to force Onnoghen’s resignation after he admitted he had violated rules regarding declaration of assets.

“Thus, should Atiku lose, as we expect, there will be few motivated stakeholders to encourage or instigate serious violence. Instead, we expect PDP governors to quickly turn their attention to fighting to retain their own jobs in state elections on 2 March”

A few weeks ago, Eurasia Group said Buhari will continue as a politically weak president, while Atiku may retract his pledge made during campaign season.


https://www.thecable.ng/just-in-atiku-has-gained-momentum-but-buhari-will-win-says-eurasia-group

Esseite:
A research group "New York research global" quoting "Eurasia group" (another research group).... and the news delivered by "The Nation's news"



Goes to show that Eurasia Analysis was propaganda.

It was first published by the cable news last week




https://www.thecable.ng/just-in-atiku-has-gained-momentum-but-buhari-will-win-says-eurasia-group

[s]

sarrki:
GOING by the February 7 report of New York-based global research and political risk solutions firm Eurasia Group, President Muhammadu Buhari will win Saturday’s election by 60 per cent.

The group, which undertakes investment partnerships, consultancy and risk advisory responsibilities in about 100 countries, said the odds against Buhari’s main challenger, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), have positioned the incumbent to retain his seat.

It identified the odds as the divided support being enjoyed by the former vice president from key elements in the rival party.

Such elements, according to the Eurasia Group, would rather exert their energies and resources on the battle to retain their seats in their various constituencies.

The group listed such actors as the governors in the PDP-controlled states and the Director-General of the Atiku Presidential Campaign Organisation, Senator Bukola Saraki, who is battling to retain his seat in the upper chamber as the representative of the Kwara Central Senatorial Zone.

The report said: “As we have previously noted, key actors in Atiku’s camp – including his campaign’s Director -General Bukola Saraki, key powerbroker Governor Nyesom Wike of the oil-rich Rivers State, and Southeast governors from his PDP – had been disengaged from his election campaign.

“Wike was annoyed by Atiku’s failure to consult him on key decisions, Saraki remains distracted by a tough Senate reelection battle in Kwara State, and the Southeast governors are hampered by many conflicting motivations, including their own lack of political clout (which makes them reluctant to overtly challenge the federal government) and their wariness of Atiku’s running mate Peter Obi, a former governor of the southeastern Anambra State who they view as a political outsider.

“The lack of enthusiasm on the part of some PDP governors is a problem for Atiku because these officials control significant discretionary funds at the state level (known as “security votes”) that are easier to access without triggering graft concerns.

“They can also leverage strong relationships with security, judicial, and election officers in their respective states. Governors are thus critical to mobilising voter turnout on Election Day.

“With 23 in office compared to the PDP’s 12, the APC already has an edge; unmotivated PDP governors will only reinforce that advantage by making it harder for the opposition to mobilise and sustain voter support on Election Day.”

Two APC governors, Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto) and Benue State counterpart Samuel Ortom, defected to the PDP last year. But the governors are battling to win their states for their new parties.

On the edge the incumbent has over Atiku, the Eurasia Group said President Buhari’s All Progressives Congress (APC) has a widespread political structure to boost voter mobilisation and solidify Buhari’s advantage.

The group noted that the heightened anxiety triggered by the suspension of Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN) Justice Walter Onnoghen by President Buhari was not enough to turn the table against the incumbent.



CJN Onnoghen was suspended by the President on January 25 following allegations on false declaration of assets against him by the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB). The CCB has since charged the CJN before the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT).

Justice Onnoghen is expected to submit his response to the charges against him to the National Judicial Council (NJC) today.

The group ruled out the possibility of protests against Buhari’s victory.

It said: “These trends support our view that widespread violence is unlikely following the 16 February vote. We have repeatedly argued that Atiku’s voters do not match Buhari’s in passion and are unlikely to risk their lives on the streets for him.

“Though Buhari’s decision to suspend the Chief Justice triggered widespread criticism and stoked passions (along with fears about a more Buhari second term), many voters blame the judiciary for not moving quickly to force CJN Onnoghen’s resignation after he admitted he had violated rules regarding declaration of assets.

Thus should Atiku lose, as we expect, there will be few motivated stakeholders to encourage or instigate serious violence. Instead, we expect PDP governors to quickly turn their attention to fighting to retain their own jobs in the state elections on March 2.”


http://thenationonlineng.net/report-buharill-win-60/

[/s]


RUBBISH

55-60%