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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day (2798 Views)
Atiku Abubakar Wins Bayelsa State Presidential Election / Abuja LGA Polls: APC's Jubrin Abubakar Wins Gwagwalada Area Council / Atiku Abubakar Wins The PDP Presidential Primaries Election (2) (3) (4)
Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by Omooba77: 5:56pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
There are large incumbency advantages in Nigeria’s politics stemming from control of the electoral agency (inspite of it been nominally designed to be an “Independent” National Electoral Commission INEC), police, armed forces, Department of State Security (DSS) and NNPC! More than any of its predecessors, the Buhari Presidency (or more accurately the unelected clique led by Mamman Daura which has seized control of it!) has shown a willingness to pervert the institutions of state, including or especially security services to maintain an otherwise tenuous hold on power. In spite of these incumbency advantages, which are supplemented by the propensity of our elite to support (Any Government in Power) “AGIP”, our analysis suggests it is virtually impossible for incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC to win a free and fair elections against his main opponent, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku of the PDP! Our analytical model starts from the numbers of registered voters provided by INEC-13,366,070; 11,289,293; and 20,158,100 from the North-Central, North-East and North-West regions respectively and 10,057,130; 12,841,279; and 16,292,212 from the South-East, South-South and South-West respectively. In the absence of data on numbers of collected Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) from INEC, we proceed to make projections for voter turnout in each of the regions ranging from 60% in the South-East; 55% in the North-East; 50% in both the North-West and South-South; and 35% in the North-Central and South-West. These projections reflect historical trends and produce a national voter turnout of 46.6% which compares favourably with 2015 in which INEC recorded a voter turnout of 43.65%. These projections of voter turn-out also take into account our estimates and analysis of potential PVC collection, voter enthusiasm, voter roll inflation and socio-political conditions in each of the regions. We then estimate voting trends across the country based on a multiplicity of local, regional and national factors including party popularity, candidate popularity, ethnic/regional/religious affiliation, voter sentiments and behaviour, political trends, campaigns and campaign feedbacks and our analysis. Based on these factors, we make very conservative assumptions about the performance of the two dominant candidates, marginal third-party candidates and undecided voters. In our model, the undecided portion has shrunk dramatically over the last 60 days from as high as 15% of the electorate to about 2.5% of voters. Third-party candidates perform poorly in the framework, scoring not more than 1% of overall national ballots cast, confirming that this 2019 election is a straight Buhari (APC) versus Atiku (PDP) affair. Votes for third-party candidates are negligible and they fare best in the South-East and South-West with 1.5% and 2.5% of votes cast. We project Atiku Abubakar to win in the North Central by 51% of votes cast to Buhari’s 47%. Buhari has lost the Middle-Belt of Nigeria, who have been the victims of the horrendous murders and pillage attributed to herdsmen. Buhari’s performance in the region should infact be weaker than we projected but for lower turnout by traumatised residents and pro-Buhari votes in some of the non-Christian parts of the North-Central. Overall Atiku scores 2,385,844 votes in the North-Central to Buhari’s 2,198,719. In the North-East, we award victory to Buhari by a margin of 52% to Atiku’s 46% translating into 3,228,738 votes for Buhari to Atiku’s 2,856,191 votes. We expect Buhari to win in Borno and Yobe, while Atiku is strong in Adamawa, Taraba and Gombe. We also award the North-West to Buhari even though we expect Atiku to also perform strongly in that region. Indeed recent campaigns especially in Kano (which were conducted after we completed our analysis suggests we may have underrated Atiku’s strength in the region and the impact of the Kwankansiya-Atiku affiliation. We project Buhari winning 55% of the votes (5,543,478) to Atiku’s 44% (4,434,782). Even though the total number of votes in the South-East and South-South are lower relative to other regions and particularly the North-West and North-East, they will be significant in this election because one candidate, Atiku Abubakar will have an overwhelming proportion of those votes. In the South-East we expect Atiku to get 83% of votes cast, and 80% in the South-South to Buhari’s 15% and 17.5% respectively. In terms of numbers these amount to over 10 million votes to Atiku in the two regions compared with just over 2 million votes for Buhari. The net differential from those two regions is large enough to offset Buhari’s modest advantage from the North-West and North-East in which votes are essentially shared. In the South-West, the percentage of undecided voters is the highest in the country, with 10% of South-West voters still undecided (as at January 31st 2019) with the region also giving the highest votes (2.5%) to third-party candidates such as Fela Durotoye, Kingsley Muoghalu and Omoyele Sowore. We project Buhari to win with the South-West with 47.5% (2,708,580) of the votes, but Atiku recording a strong 40% (2,280,910) of votes cast. It also seems the momentum is in favour of Atiku and he may secure a greater proportion of undecided voters. Overall our analyses suggest victory for Atiku Abubakar of the PDP by 56.5% of the votes to Buhari’s 40.2% representing a healthy victory for the opposition candidate. Our analysis is based on the assumption that the election, though not perfect, will be reasonably free and fair, and will reflect the will of the voters in each of the Nigeria’s regions. Our analyses will, of course, be irrelevant in the context of a blatantly rigged process https://businessday.ng/columnist/opeyemi-agbaje/article/atiku-abubakar-wins-a-fair-contest/amp/ 10 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by onez: 5:59pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
NOT A SUPRISE. ATIKU is incoming president. We can't afford to reward a failure another four year 21 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by Topccy007z: 6:01pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
The reality of his victory will be witnessed by everyone on Saturday May God spare our lives. 18 Likes 4 Shares |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by DonFreshmoney(m): 6:26pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
Say no more business day.. I said say no more business day.. 9 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by capitalzero: 7:21pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
best analysis so far. 9 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by helinues: 7:50pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
Not in Nigeria Not with this Saturday Feb 16 presidential elections 4 + 4 = 2023 1 Like
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Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by Omooba77: 8:36pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
helinues:Only God can decide that 4 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by helinues: 8:37pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
Omooba77: Electorates sir.. Both candidates call on God but he can't help them together at the same time |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by Omooba77: 10:31pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
helinues: Lala, I beg make I feel the vibe of people like cleverly, madridguy, bolustical 3 Likes |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by Racoon(m): 10:33pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
Overall our analyses suggest victory for Atiku Abubakar of the PDP by 56.5% of the votes to Buhari’s 40.2% representing a healthy victory for the opposition candidate. 6 Likes
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Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by Racoon(m): 10:38pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
There are large incumbency advantages in Nigeria’s politics stemming from control of the electoral agency (inspite of it been nominally designed to be an “Independent” National Electoral Commission INEC), police, armed forces, Department of State Security (DSS) and NNPC! 2 Likes |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by Omooba77: 10:56pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
Baba should go and rest, he has done his bit 5 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by Omooba77: 6:11am On Feb 14, 2019 |
Atiku is 62 percent likely to win 8 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by Omooba77: 9:44am On Feb 14, 2019 |
helinues:Away with selfish leader! Mynd44, lalasticlala 2 Likes |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by bender79: 9:52am On Feb 14, 2019 |
These projections are too close for an incumbent. We are not in a developed democracy where incumbents don't use their advantages, this is the mistake they are making |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by SternProphet: 10:01am On Feb 14, 2019 |
The sum total of these analyses is that Buhari wins. NW, SW, NE, so what remains. What these guys have done is play with percentages in favour of Atiku even though they concede Buhari wins more zones, what idiocy?. An incumbent wins 3 most populous zones in Nigeria, is strong in two SS states, stronger in the SE than he was in 2015, yet loses the election. Ok u na try. Only in Nigeria does this kind of analysis reach the opposite conclusion. It's actually not partiality, it's fear and desperation. 1 Like |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by Salvador1: 10:09am On Feb 14, 2019 |
This is most accurate analysis I have seen so far but that se/ss %of buhari should increase as an incumbent president Se= 28% Ss = 35% |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by Salvador1: 10:09am On Feb 14, 2019 |
This is most accurate analysis I have seen so far but that se/ss %of buhari should increase as an incumbent president Se= 28% Ss = 35%. |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by jlinkd78(m): 10:11am On Feb 14, 2019 |
Atiku honestly a better product. If not for political and economic patronage who in his right sense will vote Buhari 3 Likes |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by dokie: 10:37am On Feb 14, 2019 |
I have an issue with the analysis, the percentage of voter turnout. It shows the NW and SW lower than the SE n SS. That of NE is understandable due to the BH effect, but I doubt that of NW and SW. Except again, if rogue registrations are higher in those regions. Nevertheless, I maintain that if Atiku gets 40% votes in Kano and 45% in Lagos, Buhari is gone. Apart from Edo where APC will get 40% votes and Akwa were they will get about 25%, there is no where else they will get 20% in the SS/SE region. Imo will do 15% at best Rivers, Cross River, Delta will do about the same thing, while anambra, Enugu, ebonyi, Bayelsa, Abia, will do roughly 5%. 2 Likes |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by jchioma: 10:56am On Feb 14, 2019 |
jchioma:No amount of propaganda will save Buhari in this weekend election. Nigerians have made up their minds to vote out this incompetent and wicked government. 2 Likes
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Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by tuniski: 11:11am On Feb 14, 2019 |
SternProphet: How is winning 3 zones of Nw,NE and SW more zones than SS,SE and NC? You are in for a Rude shock on saturday. 1 Like |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by AtikuMeansJobs: 11:18am On Feb 14, 2019 |
We have a full blown tyrant on our hands. A tyrant that shops for judges that will sit on his case. A tyrant that refuses to sign electoral bill that will guarantee free and fair elections. A tyrant that is never interested in free and fair elections but wants to perpetuate himself in power forever. What we have is worse than Abacha. All foreign assets of Buhari and his family should be seized. Buhari should be declared a persona non grata in the international community. Members of his cabinet should be blacklisted and all their foreign assets frozen. God bless Nigeria.if you think Nigeria deserves better and a more profitable and working system pls vote for PDP... This is not to say is because you don't like Buhari, but because obviously he's tired and have tried his quota. Remember the past crying and agony people and companies went through, don't allow few words that don't translate to development deceive you. In all sense of responsibility, if you are looking for angel to govern you, Buhari or Atiku won't be your option, but having two of them at the forefront, Atiku is more expose and enlightened than Buhari. That's the fact.Atiku is more expose and enlightened than Buhari. That's the fact. Whatever decision you have decided to take today without glancing through the future and it effect, just remember that decision will last you four 4 years. Vote wisely.if you look around you, forgetting baseless propagandas, seeing things for yourself, and you think that they underperformed, don't form political apathy, it wouldn't take you anywhere positively, come out and vote them out. No one, I repeat NOBODY is 100% Incorrupt, even the highest average is just above 80.45%, Don't exchange your nation for cheap scams. Your likes and shares doesn't matter to me. Only your votes. 2 Likes |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by chemgee: 11:33am On Feb 14, 2019 |
dokie: if buhari pulls up to 30% in the SE & SS, I think he will come back.. Edo,Rivers & AKS may be the spoilers.. but I think that anambra state has something up their sleeves.. they will shock PDP, APC and Nigeria at large. |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by dokie: 11:46am On Feb 14, 2019 |
chemgee: Theyve cama hey these figures these exceptu through massive Rigging. Rochas wah only able to do 17% for Buhari in the Last elections. With a divided APC in Imo and increased hatred for Buhari in the region, I doubt anything better. APCs strongest force In SS is oshiomole and Akpabio. Them fit try small. The others are block, forget ogbouru in delta, that one's a joker. 1 Like |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by OreMI22: 12:03pm On Feb 14, 2019 |
The problem now is how to prevent INEC from rigging the elections in favor of the ruling party. INEC has be intimidated and spies positioned to ensure that fake results from Buhari presidency staff are inserted into the national collation of results and published. Nigerians must use their phones to snap and post the published results from their polling units. Nigerians should also stay at their polling units until the results are counted and announced or else, those paid adhoc staff will simply write whatever they are paid by corrupt politicians to do. Now, the focus should be how to stop INEC from cooking up results and passing them as real results from the polling centers. 1 Like |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by CrestMan: 12:17pm On Feb 14, 2019 |
Voting for Atiku on Feb 16 2019, is both a DIVINE and NATIONAL MANDATE! And I have OBEYED! Have you? 3 Likes |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by chozzy: 12:25pm On Feb 14, 2019 |
jlinkd78: Spot on 1 Like |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by DMerciful(m): 12:37pm On Feb 14, 2019 |
This election will be a replica of 2011 election! 1 Like |
Re: Atiku Abubakar Wins A Fair Contest - Business Day by Omooba77: 12:54pm On Feb 14, 2019 |
DMerciful: Power is coming back to the people, not the few who has been treating us as slaves in our own country! 1 Like |
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