The definition of an emerging market, according to the old investment joke, is one from which it is impossible to emerge with your money intact. Few seem to prove this truism better than what was once Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria. Indeed, if the dictionary definition of an emerging market is that of an economy with low income but high growth prospects, Nigeria fails the test; it is most certainly low income but in recent years, it has also been low growth.

Both in absolute and per capita terms, Nigeria’s GDP has been in sharp decline for the best part of four years, and in the past year it has again fallen behind South Africa as the continent’s largest economy. Only now is it beginning to pull out of this long recession. Meanwhile, its currency, the Nigerian naira, has suffered a catastrophic collapse, devaluing by nearly 70pc against the US dollar over the past 10 years. It is with good reason that some pundits call Nigeria the next Venezuela in the making.

This might seem an unduly harsh verdict, but the similarities between the two are striking. Nigeria is a relatively oil rich economy with a newly re-elected left wing populist, Muhammadu Buhari, at its helm whose chief of staff is an avowed admirer of Jeremy Corbyn, himself a devotee of Venezuela’s late Hugo Chavez.

Both economies – Nigeria and Venezuela – have recklessly alienated international capital and utterly failed to harness their oil wealth. Even Ghana, less than a seventh the size of Nigeria in terms of GDP, receives more foreign direct investment these days than its near neighbour.

Global investors and companies have lost faith in the country and are leaving in droves. So too has its middle class. Nigeria is estimated to have lost about a tenth of its wealthier citizens to emigration in recent years. Its brightest and best have been voting with the feet in ruinous numbers – doctors, nurses, engineers, accountants, entrepreneurs, lawyers and so on. Success and wealth are routinely demonised by the Buhari regime. The grubby process of populist vote buying has triumphed over sound economics and pragmatic policy.

Nigeria's newly re-elected president, Muhammadu Buhari: during his campaign, he glorified poverty and vilified success
According to the Nigerian political blogger, David Hundeyin, Buhari’s recent election campaign was characterised not by any serious acknowledgement of Nigeria’s extreme investment deficit in education, healthcare, power generation and transport infrastructure, but by attacks on the usual populist scapegoats – “corrupt people”, “treasury looters,” and “arrogant elites”. Poverty was glorified, success was vilified.

What has all this got to do with the West? Nigeria may be a country of nearly 200m, but at less than 1pc of global GDP, it is neither here nor there. Like Venezuela, it might be a cautionary tale in the politics of left-wing populism, yet its wider significance seems at most marginal.

Well perhaps, but the fact is that even as Western populations age and decline, Nigeria’s, like much of the rest of Africa, is on an explosive growth path. On the present trajectory, Nigeria’s population is expected to more than double over the next 30 years, reaching a scarcely credible 750m by 2100, according to projections by the Census Bureau of the United States. That’s plainly not going to be sustainable, and therefore quite unlikely to occur in practice, but even if only half right, it creates, in the absence of extremely rapid per capita economic growth, myriad problems for the West.

The challenge of mass migration from sub-saharan Africa we see today threatens to turn into an exodus of positively biblical proportions. However vigorous, conventional border controls would struggle to prevent it. It is therefore very much in the West’s interests that Africa follows Asia into rapid economic advancement.

But here’s the paradox. Experience suggests that migration from the developing world peaks when national income reaches the $6,000 to $7,000 per capita range. Much below that, and only the middle classes and the enterprising have the wherewithal to make the break. Once income reaches that level, however, it provides the means for mass migration.

As things stand, Nigerian GDP per head is only £2,450. It could therefore be argued that the West perversely has an incentive to keep Africa in relative poverty. With an anti-business politician such as Buhari in charge, we perhaps don’t have to worry too much about an African invasion. We can cynically take our pick of its most educated, while leaving the rest to cope as best they can.

Building on analysis by the American economist, Mary Jean Bowman, Charles Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital, has developed a neat little system for determining whether a country is capable of the sort of industrialisation necessary to achieve middle income status or better. Bowman established that one prerequisite was a minimum literacy rate of 70pc. India achieved that level in 2015, some 20 years after China. Nigeria is still some way off. Riven by ethnic and religious division, it is struggling to make progress.

Robertson adds another two pre-conditions - that a country needs a minimum investment rate of 25pc of GDP and that electricity consumption must reach an average of 300 kilowatt hours per person, enough to power a TV and three low energy lightbulbs. Again, Nigeria is well short of these thresholds, particularly on investment, which is only half that level.

Robertson is more optimistic than most about Nigeria’s prospects of eventually getting there. He also points out that Buhari’s government is not the totally unreconstructed hard left populist cabinet it might seem. It contains some notable reformers whose anti-corruption crusade can only be applauded. Even so, Nigeria for now remains an economy linked inextricably to the fortunes of the oil price and, like Russia, apparently incapable of decent levels of growth when the price is low. For Nigeria, abundant oil has proved as much a curse as a blessing. Again, the problem is population. Production per capita is too low to make a material difference to average incomes but just high enough to remove the incentives for other sources of income growth. The next Venezuela? It’s all too possible.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/05/nigeria-become-next-venezuela-signs-not-good/

No wonder the international bodies didn't support atiku, they won't profit if Nigeria is doing great and atiku is economic friendly.

Nigeria was the fastest growing economy till Obama removed Jonathan for usa selfish interest.

This country is irredeemable with the tyrant in charge. A govt that glorifies poverty and demonizes wealth and prosperity. Ghana with a tiny population is attracting more wealth. By the time the Failure finishes with us, severe extreme poverty will find home in both south and north of Niger. Who will save us?

My happiness it that this will break Nigeria faster. Please oil price come down to 20$

If Buhari can assemble good economic team in this new administration it wont happen.

Global investors and companies have lost faith in the country and are leaving in droves. So too has its middle class. Nigeria is estimated to have lost about a tenth of its wealthier citizens to emigration in recent years. Its brightest and best have been voting with the feet in ruinous numbers – doctors, nurses, engineers, accountants, entrepreneurs, lawyers and so on. Success and wealth are routinely demonised by the Buhari regime.

It's quite amazing how Nigeria threw aspirants directly involved in Nigerian industries and businesses under the bus for someone who just recently said "after 2023 I would go home and settle".... he didn't even care to tell Nigerians how we would get to 2023 in one piece.

They have started with their doom saying again. They talked about this 4 years ago, and they were proved wrong. At least we were able to survive and manage it well.This would have happened assuming ND avengers keep causing havoc but it was also well managed.The structures of Nigeria and Venezuela are different. venezuela is under sanction, nigeria, no. Venezuela has post unrest situations, not in nigeria, there is fractional supports of opposition government from surrounding countries including america but in nigeria, no opposition or parallel government as at now, and everyone has moved on except atiku and pdp that likely go to court. The structures on ground are not the same.

Yes, poor economic policies by buhari led government may allow some foreign investors to be skeptical about investing in nigeria but is not as bad as they foresee. The main problem is that many free and stolen money that many advanced countries like UK see from Nigerian government in the past has drastically reduced. They depend on those money to grow their own economy and now no free corrupt money while the one they are protecting are been put under pressure to be recovered. They should face their brexit wahala and leave us alone until things stabilize.

priceaction:
They have started with their doom saying again.

It's not doom saying.. they are worried because a mass migration of 200m people would cause a global problem...

They are the investors, they are the countries that migrants would flock to. They are only being logical.

buhari the olodo of immense proportion

not even qualified to be a gateman

Esseite:


It's not doom saying.. they are worried because a mass migration of 200m people would cause a global problem...

They are the investors, they are the countries that migrants would flock to. They are only being logical.

Is not as bad as how they portrait it bro. 4 years ago was terrible than this, that's when I thought things would have gone uncontrollable, but here we are, the truth is that they are also fighting for their own interest. Countries may have thousands of grade A foreign investors but still, not be able to survive if economic crises happens.

Sai baba Sai next level. I urge National Assembly to sponsor a bill for Buhari to go for third term after 2019.

Liars.

Excaperx:
No wonder the international bodies didn't support atiku, they won't profit if Nigeria is doing great and atiku is economic friendly.

Nigeria was the fastest growing economy till Obama removed Jonathan for usa selfish interest.

What did you want them to do? Come to Naija and vote him?

SE had Peter Obi on the ballot and refused to come out.
SW votes were split, e no win.
Atiku lost his region, his LG and his PU.

They don't back unserious loafers.

If there was an opportunity for Nigeria to become Venuzuela, it was when Niger Delta Avengers crippled our economy with their increasing bomb blast and thr Naira fell to 550# to $1. As it is right now, it's literally impossible.

Any company that wanted to leave has already left.

Seriously with all these economic projections and the way things are going for this nation sincerely speaking I fear for this nation and it is only God that will can rely upon .

priceaction:
They have started with their doom saying again. they talked about this 4 years ago, and they were proved wrong. At least we were able to survive and manage it well.The structures of Nigeria and Venezuela are different. Yes, poor economic policies by buhari led government may allow some foreign investors to be skeptical about investing in nigeria but is not as bad as they foresee. The main problem is that many free and stolen money that many advanced countries like UK see from Nigerian government in the past has drastically reduced. They depend on those money to grow their own economy and how no free corrupt money while the one they are protecting are been put under pressure to be recovered. They should face their brexit wahala and leave us alone until things stabilize.

Don't mind them, they have their own agenda!

Can you imagine the trope, "...he glorified poverty and vilified success:" I smelled a rat when I saw that...a hatchet job!

Facts on the ground don't support this nonsense.

We have already dodged the bullet, first by kicking out the Ineffectual Buffoon and the second time by rejecting the Atikulooter.

Just two day ago we were announced as the largest producer of rice in Africa. A week earlier we were announced as the largest performing economy in Africa.

Nigeria is on to the NEXT LEVEL of prosperity and development.

This report is a lie. They should talk another thing.

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Buhari & his followers are always suffering from Dunning Kruger Effect; "Wherein incompetent people do not only fail to realize their incompetence but consider themselves more competent than anyone else." Too bad!

Buhari has destroyed Nigeria

[s]

SillyMods:
Facts on the ground don't support this nonsense.We have already dodged the bullet, first by kicking out the Ineffectual Buffoon and the second time by rejecting the Atikulooter.

Just two day ago we were announced as the largest producer of rice in Africa. A week earlier we were announced as the largest performing economy in Africa.Nigeria is on to the NEXT LEVEL of prosperity and development.

[/s]

Excaperx:
No wonder the international bodies didn't support atiku, they won't profit if Nigeria is doing great and atiku is economic friendly.

Nigeria was the fastest growing economy till Obama removed Jonathan for usa selfish interest.

Telegraph like Amnesty International will only generate content that makes them money.

Nigeria is currently second largest economy in Africa , and Lagos the sixth. Telegraph claims S.A is ahead of Nigeria.

Telegraph cites a "political blogger", in the U.K would the Telegraph ask a political blogger or a professor for an opinion?

But, Nigerians in Nigeria don't read or use their brains. We like asking a plumber how to fix an electrical fault.

Same way we need a western newspaper to tell us we are going to die, and fool's like you start clapping.

Foolish Nigerian Youth.

Prophets of Doom projecting their their evil and corrupt desires. Children of Hate aka Igbos will rush in in a droves to celebrate this now

SillyMods:
Facts on the ground don't support this nonsense.

We have already dodged the bullet, first by kicking out the Ineffectual Buffoon and the second time by rejecting the Atikulooter.

Just two day ago we were announced as the largest producer of rice in Africa. A week earlier we were announced as the largest performing economy in Africa.

Nigeria is on to the NEXT LEVEL of prosperity and development.

Absolutely correct.

I have facts, you have figures ~ pmb

Next level..... Anyone with sense organ will know Nigeria is heading for doom if things prevail, once again "You cannot lock your shop and be chasing criminals" there are ways and policies to make the criminals return back to you, GEJ introduced BVN and it worked effectively, this are technical and economical ideas Buhari lacks because you cannot give what u don't have, Imagine over 20million lost their jobs and all a government was to implement is a 10K trader moni LOL, Anyways since we refused to change the change, whatever we see regarding this present administration, was duly deserved wholeheartedly

Aeon Analysts

GrossPrice:


Telegraph like Amnesty International will only generate content that makes the money.

Nigeria is currently second largest economy in Africa , and Lagos the sixth. Telegraph claims S.A is ahead of Nigeria.

Telegraph cites a "political blogger", in the U.K would the Telegraph ask a political blogger or a professor for an opinion. But it Nigeria and Nigerians in Nigeria don't read or use their brains. We like asking a plumber how to fix an electrical fault.

keep quiet and accept the fact,"Nigeria is doom under buhari".

1.