before i start my analysis i got the info. that ribadu has stepped down here.

http://dailytimes.com.ng/article/breaking-nuhu-ribadu-stands-down

ok lets go, 2 reason's.

1.   Ribadu supporters will be split between GEJ and Buhari. Most of Ribadu's Northern supporters will go to Buhari while the souttherners will mostly go to GEJ. And i believe he has more support in the south west than in the north because he is ACN. therefore in the whole equation GEJ gets more votes. There are so many people who believe Buhari cannot be trusted but they want PDP out, so the next best thing is Ribadu.

2.   Because of the late timming, millions of Ribadu/ACN supporters especially in the rural areas will not get the info or understand it. this group will still vote for ACN and the votes cannot be transfered, so those votes will be null. With these votes no longer in the equation, it becomes easier to win a clear majority and reduces the chances of a re run.

Its the same thing that happened when ATIKU emerged consensue candidate. most of the IBB delegates went to GEJ and others voted for IBB and aliyu gussau who where no longer in the race making it easier for GEJ to win.

Just my analysis, what do you think.

In a nutshell.

dasa:

before i start my analysis i got the info. that ribadu has stepped down here.

http://dailytimes.com.ng/article/breaking-nuhu-ribadu-stands-down

ok lets go, 2 reason's.

1.   Ribadu supporters will be split between GEJ and Buhari. Most of Ribadu's Northern supporters will go to Buhari while the souttherners will mostly go to GEJ. And i believe he has more support in the south west than in the north because he is ACN. therefore in the whole equation GEJ gets more votes. There are so many people who believe Buhari cannot be trusted but they want PDP out, so the next best thing is Ribadu.

2.   Because of the late timming, millions of Ribadu/ACN supporters especially in the rural areas will not get the info or understand it. this group will still vote for ACN and the votes cannot be transfered, so those votes will be null. With these votes no longer in the equation, it becomes easier to win a clear majority and reduces the chances of a re run.

Its the same thing that happened when ATIKU emerged consensue candidate. most of the IBB delegates went to GEJ and others voted for IBB and aliyu gussau who where no longer in the race making it easier for GEJ to win.

Just my analysis, what do you think.

Lousy and misguided opinion and assumption void of any understanding of human's capacity to overcome and prevail.

@Eko Ile, unnecessary english my brother. say what you want, you know i have a point. i said the same thing during the PDP primaries and i believe its the same scenario again. you are just in denial.

many people say ribadu's step down means the death of GEJ's ambition. i think its the opposite, i even think the whole thing is arranged by GEJ and PDP from behind the scenes. I repeat, RIBADU is back in Nigeria because GEJ let him return, and i have always believed he is working for PDP. i might be wrong sha.

But it is nice to see everyone interested in this elections.

dasa:

@Eko Ile, unnecessary english my brother. say what you want, you know i have a point.

You don't have any point simply because you are not GOD, talk less Mrs Cleo without a crystal ball to see into the future.


Never say never and let tomorrow decide for tomorrow.

dasa:

1.   Ribadu supporters will be split between GEJ and Buhari. Most of Ribadu's Northern supporters will go to Buhari

Ribadu doesn't really have any northern supporters, lol.

while the souttherners will mostly go to GEJ.

This I disagree with. Ribadu voters and Buhari voters are pretty similar. . . in part because Ribadu and Buhari offer the same things as candidates.

2.   Because of the late timming, millions of Ribadu/ACN supporters especially in the rural areas will not get the info or understand it.

A) Information percolates VERY quickly, at least for my own somewhat rural village. . . we listen to the radio and pay attention to politics, and vote in large #s.
B) SW Nigeria isn't that rural (compared to say the middle belt or the north)
C) Populace is pretty literate and informed. Only a small fraction will vote for Ribadu by mistake.


Anyway, it might fail to give Buhari the victory. But it will greatly help his chances, in my opinion. Probably 70% of Ribadu supporters will chose Buhari. The other 30% will choose GEJ. Net winner of that scenario is Buhari.

Step down ko, step up ni