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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Business / Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 (3385939 Views)
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Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by Nobody: 8:22pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
wiseone28: Why is bet9ja so wicked. No bonus yet they are reducing my money. I planned cashing out. I am just weak. Suppose to be 292k
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Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by wiseone28: 8:22pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
wiconse:I didn't refer to you na that after game i knew it punter |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by wiseone28: 8:25pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
wiconse:You don't get bonus with such odds 1 Like |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by Nobody: 8:27pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
Arbitrage betting (also known as a "surebet" or
“arb”) is a risk-free opportunity to make a
guaranteed profit on a particular sporting event
or betting market. When arbing, you are
essentially exploiting differences in odds being
offered between a number of bookmakers,
typically two. The difference in the odds being
offered is so pronounced, that you have the
opportunity to make a profit no matter what the
outcome.
What Is Arbitrage Betting: Examples Of
Surebets
Let's take a look at two arbitrage betting
examples. Example one, we encounter the
following scenario:
Balanced Odds
Andy Murray is playing Novak Djokovic in a
Wimbledon Final.
Murray is available at odds of 2.10 with
bookmaker A
Djokovic is likewise available at odds of 2.10
with bookmaker B
Here we find a perfect arbitrage opportunity. If
we simply place £100 on Murray to win and
£100 on Djokovic to win, we are guaranteed a
profit, in this case a profit of £10.
Let's say that Djokovic wins. Our returns would
be:
Murray -£100
Djokovic +£110
Profit = £10
Unbalanced Odds
The above example was simple. But arbitrage
opportunities are not always easy to identify. In
the example below, the Chicago Bulls are
facing the Cleveland Cavs in a NBA game:
Cleveland are at odds of 1.20 with bookmaker
A
Chicago are at odds of 8.00 with bookmaker B.
This situation is a bit trickier. How can we
calculate an arbitrage bet?
How To Calculate A Surebet
Calculating an arb with an arbitrage betting
calculator is easy. But let's look at the
calculations involved to help us develop a
deeper understanding of the dynamics involved
in an arbitrage betting opportunity.
There are two key questions when it comes to
arbitrage betting:
#1 - How do you know if you have identified an
arbitrage opportunity?
#2 – How much should you stake in order to
secure your guaranteed profit?
Finding An Arbitrage Bet Opportunity
Similar to calculating the bookmaker's margin
(or commission) on a given betting market, we
identify an arbitrage opportunity by adding the
implied probabilities of the best betting odds
available for each outcome. To calculate the
implied probability for each outcome, we simply
divide the odds for that outcome in decimal
format by 1.
So let's then look at our simple example of
Murray vs Djokovic from earlier in this article.
Murray at odds of 2.10
implied probability = 1 / 2.10
= 0,476 = 47.6%
So the implied probability of Murray's odds of
2.10 is 47.6%.
Let's now consider Djokovic.
Djokovic at odds of 2.10
implied probability = 1 / 2.10
= 0.476 = 47.6%
To determine if we have identified an arbitrage
betting opportunity and a guaranteed profit, we
simply add the two implied probabilities
together.
Total: 47.6% + 47.6% = 95.2%
When the implied probability for a given betting
market adds up to less than 100%, it is an
opportunity to make a sure profit. The lower the
value below 100%, the more worthwhile the
arbitrage bet is and the greater the profit we
can make. In this example the market is well
below 100%.
So lets then take a look at Cleveland vs
Chicago in our NBA example. Have we
identified an opportunity to arb?
Cleveland at odds of 1.20
implied probability = 1 / 1.20
= 0.833 = 83.3%
Chicago at odds of 8.00
implied probability = 1 / 8.00
= 0.125 = 12.5%
Market Total
= 83.3% + 12.5% = 95.8%
Again, we have identified the chance to make a
sure profit as the market is again well below
100%.
How To Calculate Stakes For A
Guaranteed Profit
This question was easy to answer in our
Murray vs Djokovic example. As both have the
same odds, we simply bet the same amount on
each outcome to guarantee our profit no matter
who wins the match.
But more often than not, arbitrage bets are not
this simplistic. Typically we will need to weight
our staking according to the odds of each
outcome. How do we do this?
#1 - Calculate the implied probabilities of all
possible market outcomes
#2 - Calculate the sum of the probabilities of all
possible market outcomes
#3 – Divide the implied probability of each
individual outcome by the sum of all
probabilities
In this way we can determine the correct
amount to bet to achieve our profit.
Example: Cleveland vs Chicago
We calculate the implied probability of each
outcome and add them together just as we
previously did.
Cleveland at odds of 1.20
implied probability = 1 / 1.20
= 0.833 = 83.3%
Chicago at odds of 8.00
implied probability = 1 / 8.00
= 0.125 = 12.5%
Market Total
= 83.3% + 12.5% = 95.8%
Now we calculate how much to bet on each
outcome by dividing the implied probability of
each outcome by the total market probability.
Cleveland
= 83.3% / 95.8%
= 86.952%
Chicago
= 12.5% / 95.8%
= 13.048%
So in this example, if we wanted to arb a total
of £1,000, we would place 86.952% of our
£1,000 on Cleveland at odds of 1.20 and
13.048% of our £1,000 on Chicago at odds of
8.00. Now we will win the same amount no
matter who wins the game, Cleveland or
Chicago.
Let's walk it through:
We want to stake £1,000 in our arbitrage bet.
£1,000 * 86.95% = £869.52 on Cleveland at
odds of 1.20
£1,000 * 13.05% = £130.48 on Chicago at
odds of 8.00
So now, no matter who wins, we are
guaranteed a profit of roughly £44.
If Cleveland wins, we collect (£869.52 * 1.20
=) £1043.42. After we deduct our £1,000
stake, we come away with our £43.42
guaranteed profit.
If Chicago wins, we collect (£130.48 * 8.00) =
£1043.84. After we deduct our £1,000 stake,
we come away with our £43.84 guaranteed
profit.
Applying Our Calculation To Other Markets
We have only considered betting markets with
just two outcomes, team A wins or team B wins.
But what about a football 1X2 market or even a
horse race featuring 12 runners? Well the
principles remain the same.
#1 - Calculate the implied probabilities of all
possible market outcomes
#2 - Calculate the sum of the probabilities of all
possible market outcomes
#3 – Divide the implied probability of each
individual outcome by the sum of all probabilitie
Let's say we have an upcoming Premier
League match between Manchester City and
Arsenal. We are looking here at the 1X2
betting market. We have three possible
outcomes:
Manchester City win, at odds of 2.80
Drawn match, at odds of 3.60
Arsenal win, at odds of 3.20
Let's see if we have an arbitrage opportunity.
As we did in our previous examples, we
calculate the implied probability for each
individual outcome.
Manchester City at odds of 2.80
implied probability = 1 / 2.80
= 0.3571 = 35.71%
Drawn match at odds of 3.60
implied probability = 1 / 3.60
= 0.2778 = 27.78%
Arsenal win at odds of 3.20
implied probability = 1 / 3.20
= 0.3125 = 31.25%
We then add each probability to come up with
our market total.
= 35.71% + 27.78% + 31.25%
= 94.74%
Great news! As the market total is below 100%,
we have identified an opportunity to make a
guaranteed profit. We now need to work out
how much to stake on each outcome to
guarantee the same profit no matter the
outcome. Let's say we want to stake a total of
£500.
Manchester City at odds of 2.80
= 35.71% / 94.74%
= 37.693%
So we will stake 37.693% of £500, a total of
£188.47 on Manchester City to win.
Drawn match at odds of 3.60
= 27.78% / 94.74%
= 29.323%
So we will stake 29.323% of £500, a total of
£146.62 on the Drawn match.
Arsenal at odds of 3.20
= 31.25% / 94.74%
= 32.984%
So we will stake 32.984% of £500, a total of
£164.91 on Arsenal to win.
If we bet each of these amounts, we will be
guaranteed a profit on the match of roughly
£28 no matter what happens.
Arbitrage Excel Surebet Calculator
We've made calculating arbitrage bets all the
easier with our arbitrage excel calculator. The
bettingexpert arbitrage calculator in Excel will
not only tell you if a certain betting market is
offering you the chance to make a guaranteed
profit, but will likewise tell you exactly how
much to bet on each outcome to guarantee
yourself that profit. Here's how: 2 Likes |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by Nobody: 8:28pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
wiseone28: The remaining game is one and it is 1.12 odd. Divide 3.28odd with 1.12 odd equal to 2.92. Okay since there is no bonus, 2.92*100k, is supposed to be 292k. Yet they are giving me 248k, reduced by over 80k. Is it fair? |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by Nobody: 8:35pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
play dis game before dey reduce d odd sure win europa league Borussia M'gladbach vs Wolfsberger AC AWAY WIN 1.65ODD |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by Nobody: 8:36pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
emperorblog21: isrealp Danie08 |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by Niwdog(m): 8:37pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
German teams are just useless 1 Like |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by officialfestus(m): 8:39pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
SystemBet:ok |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by israelp(m): 8:43pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
emperorblog21:3-0 nw...no value for odd again |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by SystemBet: 8:43pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
i will drop 1 game 2morow before 12 noon.........bet9ja officialfestus: |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by officialfestus(m): 8:45pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
[quote author=emperorblog21 post=82385544:[/quote]minimum amount one can start with is how much? |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by tonididdy(m): 8:46pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
Chai today be sweet oh ![]() |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by tonididdy(m): 8:47pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
emperorblog21:That game na draw FT |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by Nobody: 8:47pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
israelp:gosh am nor able to fund my acct dat y i did not plag d game. germany teama are useless wolfsbeger is a low team in austria before |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by wiseone28: 8:47pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
wiconse:cashout can go up or down depending on the information concerning the remaining game before kick off ![]() |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by tonididdy(m): 8:47pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
officialfestus:Mark me |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by officialfestus(m): 8:47pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
SystemBet:I'll be creating the whatsapp group tomorrow |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by Nobody: 8:48pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by tonididdy(m): 8:50pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
emperorblog21:I will play in play over 1.5goals home |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by dahgifted(m): 8:50pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
Danie08:32 582 18 bet9ja god bless |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by tonididdy(m): 8:51pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
Copenhagen ![]() |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by israelp(m): 8:52pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
if manu nr win today i go burn my jersey ![]() |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by Nobody: 8:55pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
emperorblog21: GAME WON |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by wiseone28: 8:56pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
emperorblog21:Between Watford and Man city who will win on weekend so that i can take loan and bet?
|
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by Nobody: 8:57pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
GAME 14 Under 1.5 1.50 Live 3189 Wolverhampton VS Sporting... |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by Nobody: 8:57pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
wiseone28: 20min draw sir |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by COZA(m): 9:00pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
this 2nd half..Man U should please score 2 goals pls, and. Wolves play 6 more corners... ![]() else ![]() |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by Legits(f): 9:00pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
One game to go....make Ludogorets score abeg........Game won
|
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by COZA(m): 9:01pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
2 Likes |
Re: Football (+/Other Sports) Betting Season 13 by Nobody: 9:02pm On Sep 19, 2019 |
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