By Robert Farley
Diplomacy is needed to calm these conflicts.


Key point: The flashpoints for future conflict already exist.

The world has avoided war between major power war since 1945, even if the United States and the Soviet Union came quite close on several occasions during the Cold War. In the first two decades following the fall of the Berlin Wall, great power war seemed virtually unimaginable. Today, with China’s power still increasing and Russia’s rejection of the international order apparently complete, great power conflict is back on the menu.


The South China Sea:
The South China Sea (SCS) has become wrapped into the growing trade clash between the United States and China. For now, that conflict is playing out in exchanges of heated rhetoric, tariffs and various other trade sanctions. The United States and Canada recently escalated the conflict by arresting an executive of the Chinese technology firm Huawei, which led to counter-steps by China against Canadian citizens and U.S. firms.

As of yet the United States and China have not drawn a tight connection between the trade war and the ongoing disputes in the SCS. However, as relations between the two countries deteriorate, one or the other might decide to escalate beyond dollars, words and legal filings. Indeed, if China and the United States conclude that their trade relationship (which has provided the foundation of global economic growth for the last two decades) is at substantial risk, and similarly conclude that further conflict is inevitable, then either might decide to “take off the gloves” in the SCS.




Ukraine:
The world remembered Ukraine when an incident at the passage into the Sea of Azov resulted in shots fired, a ramming and the detention of two Ukrainian patrol vessels. Whether instigated by Russia or Ukraine (and both governments appear to have played some part), the interception reignited tensions in a crisis that has smoldered for the last couple of years. The declaration of martial law by the Ukrainian government suggested the possibility of unrest in Ukraine.


To be sure, Russia seems to lack any interest in disrupting the status quo ahead of the Ukrainian elections, while the Ukrainian government continues to lack the capacity to consequentially change facts on the ground. The upcoming elections will probably not change the basic equation, but could introduce uncertainty. Given the continuing tensions between Russia and the United States, even a small shift could threaten the uneasy balance that has held for the last several years, potentially throwing Eastern Europe into chaos.



Persian Gulf:


The perpetual political and military crisis in the Middle East has settled into an uneasy tedium. Economic pressure on Iran continues to increase, as the United States take ever more aggressive steps to curtail trade. The Saudi war on Yemen shows no signs of abating, and while the Syrian Civil War has dialed down to a low, slow burn, both the United States and Russia remain committed to their partners and proxies.






But like any slow burn, the conflict could reignite. Political turmoil in Iran could destabilize the region, either pushing Iran into aggressive behavior or making the Islamic Republic a tempting target for its enemies. The tensions between Kurds, Turks, Syrians and Iraqis could break into open conflict at any time. Finally, the mercurial leader of Saudi Arabia has demonstrated time and again a proclivity for risk acceptance, even as whispers about the stability of the Kingdom grow louder. Given the strategic importance of the region, any instability could lead to conflict between the United States, Russia or even China.




Korean Peninsula:
It is undoubtedly correct that tensions on the Korean Peninsula have declined a great deal in the last year, as Kim Jong-un has demonstrated a degree of forbearance regarding nuclear and ballistic missile tests, and President Donald Trump has toned down his rhetoric about confronting North Korea. And indeed, the prospects of an enduring peace are surely brighter now than at any time since the mid-1990s.



And yet serious pitfalls remain. The president has staked his prestige on an agreement with North Korea, yet by most serious accounts North Korea has not suspended, or even slowed, its production of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. President Trump’s advisors are aware of and unhappy about this fundamental contradiction. If Trump sours on Kim, if elements of the administration try to spoil any agreement, or if Kim sours on Trump, the relationship between Washington and Pyongyang could go sour very quickly. Moreover, neither China nor Japan are fully on board with reconciliation between South Korea and a fully nuclear North Korea, although their reasons for skepticism are quite different. All told, the situation in Korea remains much more dangerous than the most optimistic assessments would suggest




Unpredictable?
As a colonel at the U.S. Army War College memorably phrased the problem, “the United States has wrongly predicted every conflict since the Korean War. Why should we expect World War III will be any different?” Great powers tend to devote diplomatic, military, and political resources to what they regard as the most serious conflicts on their plates. Less critical conflicts don’t receive as much attention, meaning that they can sometimes grow into serious confrontations before anyone quite notices what’s going on. Disruptive conflict could emerge in the Baltics, in Azerbaijan, in Kashmir or even in Venezuela, but the United States, China and Russia only have so much focus. If World War III comes about, it may well come from a completely unexpected direction.



Final Thoughts:
Is the world more dangerous today than it was a year ago? Perhaps not, although the decay of the relationship between China and the United States portends ill for the future. The flashpoints may change over time, but the fundamental foundations of conflict—the decay of U.S. military hegemony and of the global international order that has accompanied it—mean that the near future will likely become more hazardous than the recent past.

Robert Farley, a frequent contributor to TNI, is a Visiting Professor at the United States Army War College. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This first appeared at the beginning of the year.



Source:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/when-world-war-iii-happens-it-will-start-one-these-5-places-87471

Africa

What about Nigeria?

It could be from the middle east

Third war III rehearsal don already start for naija.. Buhari don kill everybody finish..

Osagyefo98:
What about Nigeria?

Nope
Nobody is interested in a shithole

Sapele - Warri

Nice write-up.
I keep saying this please let all the world hear me now, Try to avoid world war 3 at all cost. Make we no go back to Stone age. With all the missiles,bomb and fighting weapons we know of talkless of the ones we don't even know,if ww3 happens it will leads to massive destruction of both humans and properties. Shalom

sLentlover7778:
Third war III rehearsal don already start for naija.. Buhari don kill everybody finish..

Didn't know there's internet in the grave and dead people could access niaraland

They should count Africa out of their senseless war

helinues:
They should count Africa out of their senseless war

dont have to, the next war is nuclear and must affect you

falcon01:
dont have to, the next war is nuclear and must affect you

As if you are left out...

world war lll is better imagine than experience....
is like surrounding a rock with a dynamite

My verdict:

This article, in the light of recent developments that have taken place, is dessicated! Stale. At least, much of it.

For example, the OP probably isn't aware of the recent agreement between the Russian government and the new administration in Ukraine, or is he? If you ask me, tensions are gradually thawing in that part of the world. And that is just one instance.

Which begs the question. Why is this just appearing on NL?

World war 3 will start when Israel pulls down the Al Aqsa mosque on the temple mount at Jerusalem in an attempt to rebuild the temple.

mansakhalifa:
My verdict:

This article, in the light of recent developments that have taken place, is dessicated! Stale. At least, much of it.

For example, the OP probably isn't aware of the recent agreement between the Russian government and the new administration in Ukraine, or is he? If you ask me, tensions are gradually thawing in that part of the world. And that is just one instance.

Which begs the question. Why is this just appearing on NL?

it clearly shows u skim through the article if u didn't see this

ecclize:



Unpredictable?
As a colonel at the U.S. Army War College memorably phrased the problem, “the United States has wrongly predicted every conflict since the Korean War. Why should we expect World War III will be any different?” Great powers tend to devote diplomatic, military, and political resources to what they regard as the most serious conflicts on their plates. Less critical conflicts don’t receive as much attention, meaning that they can sometimes grow into serious confrontations before anyone quite notices what’s going on. Disruptive conflict could emerge in the Baltics, in Azerbaijan, in Kashmir or even in Venezuela, but the United States, China and Russia only have so much focus. If World War III comes about, it may well come from a completely unexpected direction.

God forbid, i never ever want world war three to ever ever occour.

How this World War 3 go take affect Nigeria and Africa as a whole...


Na that one me ah wan knw

yen yen yen.... no international conflict can degenerate in to a World war, most countries are smarter



..

[s]

solmusdesigns:
yen yen yen.... no international conflict can degenerate in to a World war

[/s]

I honestly don't think it's gonna happen, countries know what's at stake and with the kind of weapons on ground to fight with now, if dem start am ehn Na all of them go hear am,so leaders are gonna do all their very best to avoid it
See Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump dah time for example,dem run mouth finish Na hin both men reach agreement and they even met in person cos they know what's at stake

World War three will happen if trump or Putin decides to conquer the world

solmusdesigns:


yen yen yen.... no international conflict can degenerate in to a World war, most countries are smarter



..

That seems like wishful thinking.

Many Nigerians in particular would be ok with it, in my opinion. I might be wrong.

Europe as usual.

helinues:


As if you are left out...

we die there ma bruddah

ruggedtimi:
World War three will happen if trump or Putin decides to conquer the world

The danger is not Trump.The man just says what he wants and how he feels about issues.
The danger is in the hypocritical cold blooded homosexual who want to pervert the whole world. Those people are twisted and they do not reason like humans.They love blood as extensively as they love unlimited sexual pleasure.

Ayomideen:
I honestly don't think it's gonna happen, countries know what's at stake and with the kind of weapons on ground to fight with now, if dem start am ehn Na all of them go hear am,so leaders are gonna do all their very best to avoid it
See Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump dah time for example,dem run mouth finish Na hin both men reach agreement and they even met in person cos they know what's at stake

do u really think everyone reason like this...
just a singular unreasonable mistake can trigger the unimaginable...
but God forbids

ecclize:

do u really think everyone reason like this...
just a singular unreasonable mistake can trigger the unimaginable...
but God forbids

Exactly o
God forbid mehn
Can't even imagine it

ONE ROCKET PROVOKED THE US WITHDRAWAL: DETAILS OF THE KURDISH-RUSSIAN-SYRIAN DEAL

Last Friday a 155 mm artillery shell landed 300 metres from a US command post near the Syrian bordering city of Ayn al-Arab (known by the Syrian Kurds as “Kobane”) during an ongoing operation carried out by Turkey – a NATO and a US ally. This operation aimed to dislodge, at a distance of 30-35 kilometres from the border, the US-backed Kurdish militants known as the YPG, the Syrian branch of the US-EU-NATO designated terrorist group, the “Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

The Turkish troops backed by Syrian proxies had rapidly advanced in the first week of the military operation into US-occupied Syrian territory, cutting the main roads and attempting to isolate their enemies.

These two swift events were enough to ring the alarm bells and straightaway pushed the US administration to announce, via the Secretary of Defence Mark Esper, the withdrawal of approximately 1,000 US troops from north-east Syria (NES). The killing of any US soldier in Syria would effectively have been a nail in the coffin of the US President Donald Trump’s electoral campaign in 2020. France and Britain, who maintain Special Forces in NES, will follow the US forces out of Syria.

Source: https://ejmagnier.com/2019/10/14/one-rocket-provoked-the-us-withdrawal-details-of-the-kurdish-russian-syrian-deal/

Now, I beg of you, click on my Moniker and read my "Personal Text" once again and tell me if it isn't true:

"For countless billions of dollars, Amerika can only send her army against illiterate savages - armed with coconuts."

Once the bombs & rockets start landing, the burger-eating & kool-aid drinking Amerikan "Sufaiyos" Soldiers will always retreat & flee with their tails firmly tucked between their legs.

The bastards at the Pentagon knew that the Russian Troops in Syria have the S-400Triumf & the Pantsir-S2 Systems to protect them from any aerial bombardment while the Amerikan Sufaiyos have only got their completely useless Patriot Defense System & THAAD - that failed to protect Satanic Arabia's oil installations from the Houthi's bombardment - and so, they had to pick race.

Zoharariel:
[b]ONE ROCKET PROVOKED THE US WITHDRAWAL: DETAILS OF THE KURDISH-RUSSIAN-SYRIAN DEAL

Last Friday a 155 mm artillery shell landed 300 metres from a US command post near the Syrian bordering city of Ayn al-Arab (known by the Syrian Kurds as “Kobane”) during an ongoing operation carried out by Turkey – a NATO and a US ally. This operation aimed to dislodge, at a distance of 30-35 kilometres from the border, the US-backed Kurdish militants known as the YPG, the Syrian branch of the US-EU-NATO designated terrorist group, the “Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

The Turkish troops backed by Syrian proxies had rapidly advanced in the first week of the military operation into US-occupied Syrian territory, cutting the main roads and attempting to isolate their enemies.

These two swift events were enough to ring the alarm bells and straightaway pushed the US administration to announce, via the Secretary of Defence Mark Esper, the withdrawal of approximately 1,000 US troops from north-east Syria (NES). The killing of any US soldier in Syria would effectively have been a nail in the coffin of the US President Donald Trump’s electoral campaign in 2020. France and Britain, who maintain Special Forces in NES, will follow the US forces out of Syria.

Source: https://ejmagnier.com/2019/10/14/one-rocket-provoked-the-us-withdrawal-details-of-the-kurdish-russian-syrian-deal/

Now, I beg of you, click on my Moniker and read my "Personal Text" once again and tell me if it isn't true:

"For countless billions of dollars, Amerika can only send her army against illiterate savages - armed with coconuts."

Once the bombs & rockets start landing, the burger-eating & kool-aid drinking Amerikan "Sufaiyos" Soldiers will always retreat & flee with their tails firmly tucked between their legs.

The bastards at the Pentagon knew that the Russian Troops in Syria have the S-400Triumf & the Pantsir-S2 Systems to protect them from any aerial bombardment while the Amerikan Sufaiyos have only got their completely useless Patriot Defense System & THAAD - that failed to protect Satanic Arabia's oil installations from the Houthi's bombardment - and so, they had to pick race.

[/b]


Trash as usual....