chillykelly86:


I have had to take a look at this company based on your hints (thanks). Though I have sowed some seed here, everyone should note that there is a one-for-four share reconstruction brewing here on existing shares, as well as a diluting 9.25b share issue at #1.20k per share:

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2019/10/14/lasaco-assurance-secures-shareholders-approval-to-raise-n11bn/

Your PERSONAL due diligence and subsequent decision is advised.

...and if u understood the part in bold, u would know that buying into the stock @ any price above 30k would be tantamount to paying a premium(overpaying) for LASACO INSURANCE.

Simple math;
N1.20/4 = 30k (potential N1.20 price projection over a 1 for 4 share reconstruction)

The interpretation of this is that unless there is more to what the company(management) has put out in public, the current mkt price of 27k only presents a 3k(approx 11%) upside potential in view of the reconstruction and recapitalization plans by the firm !!

Always best to look before u leap.
cc: Mcy56 and others.

Regards.

The gut of this Japaul. 22k now. Just observation o.
Dont know why its not up for acquisition yet.

onegentleguy:
...and if u understood the part in bold, u would know that;
Buying into the stock @ any price above 30k would be tantamount to paying a premium(overpaying) for LASACO INSURANCE.
Simple math;
N1.20/4 = 30k (potential N1.20 price projection over a 1 for 4 share reconstruction)
The interpretation of this is that unless there is more to what the company(management) has put out in public, the current mkt price of 27k only presents a 3k(approx 11%) upside potential in view of the reconstruction and recapitalization plans by the firm !!
Always best to look before u leap. cc: Mcy56 and others. Regards.

Thanks for the insight Sir. Well detailed.
Reconstruction is one word people dont want to hear these days, maybe due to past experiences.
I however believed that Lasaco will do well after its done and dusted but before then, maybe it will be good to step aside.

@chillykelly86 thanks for the info too.

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UACN is now the new Mr slow and steady(with reference to price rise)
The stock will be doing some folks maradona... as they may sell into the 'shake-off prank', but come back to buy higher.

Better to hold ur UACN.
A word they say...

onegentleguy:
UACN is now the new Mr slow and steady(with reference to prise rise)
The stock will be doing some folks maradona... as they may sell into the 'shake-off prank', but come back to buy higher.

Better to hold ur UACN.
A word they say...

By the time we sell our UACN @N20 we will use same proceed to buy Zenithbk @ #16 and still be left with N4 balance

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

mendes911:


Chibuking has just declared the market bullish! Will history repeats itself again and the reverse takes charge?.

Only time will tell.

Market reversing since ChibuKing declared the market bullish.

Hmm.

locodemy:


Does it mean the guy no like capital appreciation?
Why do people think there will be rally in zenith after that heavy offload?

The only good thing I understand in zenith now is the 2.50kobo dividend(good dividend yield) but does it means the guy still don't like to collect 2.50 as usual?

If eventually disappointed,goodbye Janet.

Some stocks have finally cycled financially and the insiders understand.

Tier2 banks still have more growth to record now and future.

I like critical thinkers.

Meanwhile Zenithbk shareholders right now

@Lxdd , you're free to ask whatever question you have here, it will be attended to by Nsempa good people.

PETERiCHY:
I like critical thinkers.
Meanwhile Zenithbk shareholders right now

Peter, I'm waiting to see meme of Oando shell-holders when their eyes finally clears.

Serious manipulation going on in Oando....Thunder punish Wale Tinubu. The stock is trading at 3.85 but they have been selling for people at 3.50 while buying at 4.30

^
^^
^^^

hisexcellency34:
Serious manipulation going on in Oando....Thunder punish Wale Tinubu. The stock is trading at 3.85 but they have been selling for people at 3.50 while buying at 4.30

This one hard oh Bro, pls break it down abeg you.
Na where them dey sell oando at 4.30.

PETERiCHY:


I like critical thinkers.

Meanwhile Zenithbk shareholders right now

Peter your mouth ehh...... meanwhile while I dey half tree dey come down to meet my zenith for house. we go still make money Las Las for zenith

Flourmills seems to be planning to overtake GT

The market is simply telling us to be patient. Even gt has been awfully slow, which is not a problem though.

Toluway:
Flourmills seems to be planning to overtake GT

If you are bullish in Flour mill, shareholders of Honeywell should expect 100% return in a short time.

If there is any other stock I should buy outside Wapco,It should be Honeywell and I tell you,the technicals is good now.......

BREAKING NEWS:

Nigeria central bank(CBN) leaves interest rate unchanged @ 13.50%
Watch live streaming on www.cbn.gov.ng

...let's go there !!

Abeg @ Sir peterichy wey my small TV remote?

Toluway:
The market is simply telling us to be patient. Even gt has been awfully slow, which is not a problem though.

From 24.90 to 30 and you said slow.
How will you categorize zenith if Gtb is slow?

hisexcellency34:
Serious manipulation going on in Oando....Thunder punish Wale Tinubu. The stock is trading at 3.85 but they have been selling for people at 3.50 while buying at 4.30

It's all part of the GAME
What happened is called SHAKING OUT WEAK HANDS.

This morning as trading resumed there was a PHONEY OFFER of 2.5m units of OANDO @#3:86k the sole intention was to scare UNINFORMED investors to bring out there goods and sell and they succeeded about 860k units between #3:60 & #3:85

This action will keep repeating till they are ready to move the stock up .

Hope they didn't succeed in taking your GOLD MINE

Yesterday,I placed Uacn on sale at 7.30 and today I am off completely at 7.40 and some sold at 7.45.

I have my cash resting at trading acct.
Tomorrow,I will make a choice on the two stocks I feel is good to replace Uacn in my portfolio.

The main interest in stocks is SOLELY making money and nothing else.

locodemy:


From 24.90 to 30 and you said slow.
How will you categorize zenith if Gtb is slow?

What i meant was "gt is also slow". Everyone knows that zenith has been ice cold; which i dont see as an issue. I dont see the speedometer of any stock as an issue, at this stage. I'm not a 10% shot timer.

Witches:


Hi Ogg, Eti or wapco , which you think is better at present price !

onegentleguy:


I LOVE them both !!

On a side note, pls change the name of that ur moniker, if u want me to always revert to u freely.
...it's scary !!

witches and wizards have really gone far, endtime ... haven't you heard that they'll soon hold crusade at university nsuka. No wonder this one has been very proud answering "witches" in the public

1st it was eckankar, but some people said that eck... is a religion.

This is just the beginning ...

COST OF TRANSACTION. I culled this from a stock investor's complaint on Nairametrics

Ola Ilesanmi August 27, 2019 at 12:10 pm

I don’t actually know what investors will return as gains as from next January if an investor pays
1.statutory Charges on equities subscribed @ 3.9% per transaction
2. VAT on investment 5% per transaction
3. VAT ( the percentage yet to be declared by IFRS ) on online transactions within or outside the country . One should understand that dividends are now transmitted electronically .per dividend
4 . You are going to pay stamp duty of #56.5 per lodgement
5. A minimum charge of #50 for ATM maintenance .monthly .
A HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE
Company : Timber PLC
Cost per unit : #4
Buying 1000 units is equal to #4000
TRANSACTION
Brokerage charge at 3.9%= #156
VAT on investment at 5% = #200
VAT on dividends say at 5%#200
Stamp duty charge at #56.5
ATM monthly service at #50
TOTAL. #656.5
DIVIDEND DECLARED BY THE COMPANY
.45kobo per share translating to #(.45×1000units) ÷ 100 = #450
Therefore an investor’s is equal to -#246.5 !
Even if you have your name in Forbes as a captain of industries , the above is still outside infrastructural maintenance , tariffs , EPA , staff salary etcetera that is if the above example is to be in multiple of millions , billions , trillions say for a multi national company .
DO WE REALLY HAVE ECONOMIC THINKERS / PUNTERS IN NIGERIA ?
Jijoist should factor these costs.

locodemy:


If you are bullish in Flour mill, shareholders of Honeywell should expect 100% return in a short time.

If there is any other stock I should buy outside Wapco,It should be Honeywell and I tell you,the technicals is good now.......

I didn't say Flourmills is bullish. My comment stemmed from the fact that it is getting closer to gt right now.
You comment about Honeywell vis-a-vis Flourmills is because Honeywell is obviously exhibiting stronger momentum than Flourmills right now. This is simply visible.
What matters is, we shall be happy. Cheers.

Toluway:

I didn't say Flourmills is bullish. My comment stemmed from the fact that is is getting closer to gt right now.
You comment about Honeywell vis-a-vis Flourmills is because Honeywell is obviously exhibiting stronger momentum than Flourmills right now. This is simply visible.
What matters is, we shall be happy. Cheers.

Yea.I got you.Im trying to do expo to money lovers.Honeywell has more visible returns than Flour mill.Only information purpose.

veecovee:




witches and wizards have really gone far, endtime ... haven't you heard that they'll soon hold crusade at university nsuka. No wonder this one has been very proud answering "witches" in the public

1st it was eckankar, but some people said that eck... is a religion.

This is just the beginning ...

It doesn't have the same interpretation with our traditionally assumed witches and wizard in Nigeria. Witches and Wizard is an imagination. Tell me any human beings that has control over his destiny. We are all vulnerable.

onegentleguy:


...and if u understood the part in bold, u would know that buying into the stock @ any price above 30k would be tantamount to paying a premium(overpaying) for LASACO INSURANCE.

Simple math;
N1.20/4 = 30k (potential N1.20 price projection over a 1 for 4 share reconstruction)

The interpretation of this is that unless there is more to what the company(management) has put out in public, the current mkt price of 27k only presents a 3k(approx 11%) upside potential in view of the reconstruction and recapitalization plans by the firm !!

Always best to look before u leap.
cc: Mcy56 and others.

Regards.

Yes Sir, I understand that.

However, I also intend keeping an eye on the company for their return on investment (EPS, DPS, etc) before the capital raising exercise.
That seed na im go help me keep tabs on it and not lose sight of it. A time may come when I may need to start a plantation there, who knows?

Toluway:
The market is simply telling us to be patient. Even gt has been awfully slow, which is not a problem though.

Is it not the same patient that made you not sell your cornerstone when the bids were @84k now the bids has gone down to 71k.

The problem with most investors are GREED & INDECISION.

They aren't ready to take available 10% profit but at the end they will be FORCED to spent years waiting to just BREAK EVEN and they keep consoling themselves with names like DIVIDEND YIELD and LONG TERM INVESTORS.

The WORLD has gone past that ANALOG ERA. we are now in DIGITAL ERA where guys are ranking in millions under multiple 10% profit.

BAMOFIN1:
COST OF TRANSACTION. I culled this from a stock investor's complaint on Nairametrics

Ola Ilesanmi August 27, 2019 at 12:10 pm

I don’t actually know what investors will return as gains as from next January if an investor pays
1.statutory Charges on equities subscribed @ 3.9% per transaction
2. VAT on investment 5% per transaction
3. VAT ( the percentage yet to be declared by IFRS ) on online transactions within or outside the country . One should understand that dividends are now transmitted electronically .per dividend
4 . You are going to pay stamp duty of #56.5 per lodgement
5. A minimum charge of #50 for ATM maintenance .monthly .
A HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE
Company : Timber PLC
Cost per unit : #4
Buying 1000 units is equal to #4000
TRANSACTION
Brokerage charge at 3.9%= #156
VAT on investment at 5% = #200
VAT on dividends say at 5%#200
Stamp duty charge at #56.5
ATM monthly service at #50
TOTAL. #656.5
DIVIDEND DECLARED BY THE COMPANY
.45kobo per share translating to #(.45×1000units) ÷ 100 = #450
Therefore an investor’s is equal to -#246.5 !
Even if you have your name in Forbes as a captain of industries , the above is still outside infrastructural maintenance , tariffs , EPA , staff salary etcetera that is if the above example is to be in multiple of millions , billions , trillions say for a multi national company .
DO WE REALLY HAVE ECONOMIC THINKERS / PUNTERS IN NIGERIA ?
Jijoist should factor these costs.

Where did you get this from?

onegentleguy:
Yet another perspective to the VALUE proposition in UACN(weighted against its subset, UPDC and UPDC REITS)

Aside the thing about comparing their ALTMAN Z-SCORE(which I highted in the past), there's a bit more.

...a brief;

1st off; according to the proposed unbundling, the shareholders of UACN are to get stakes in UPDC and UPDC REITS post rights issuance to updc shareholders, which is expected to raise near N16B to offset the bridge loan taken from UACN.

3 benefits;

1) Given that the allotment of shares comes post rights issue by UPDC, the shareholders of UACN are totally exempt from any impact of a likely equity dilution.

2) UACN will get a good boost from the leverage(approx N16B) accrued from the rights.
Again, UACN will also indirectly benefit from all the restructuring initiative of the unbundling, including an asset allocation with a current mkt value of near N9B to UPDC(plus an interest payment of over N20B accrued to updc in the reits)

3) The unbundling and 'gifting' to current shareholders of UACN also means they'll immediately partake of accrual gains and future EV(enterprise values) of the subsets, updc and updc-reits.

Using the sum of all parts(SOTP) valuation technique(an indicative tool used to guage the likely value of the subsidiaries/constituents that form a holding company when been sold/spun off or divested from), we can further look in on the inherent VALUE passable to the group.(UACN)
...The idea is to break up the 2 subsets away from the holding coy/conglomerate, and try to value them seperately.

Using this technique(adjudged from the benefits with the subsets updc and updc-reits EV, RoIC, EV to EBIT, OS, PEG and P/B) as well as its current financial status in view, and adjusting for risk, I have a re-adjusted FVE of approx N18.25 for UACN.
...this is assuming zero% growth to YE.(Assuming that UACN makes zero earning in H2, 2019)

Away from the proposed unbundling, the group is also looking to spun off from its hotel business arm, updc hotel(UHL) to aide more leverage.(assets classified as held for sale/distribution to owners in view)
...and a total revamp of its quick service restaurant arm(UAC restaurant) to further boost earnings.

VERDICT: UACN remains a strong BUY for us !!
While short term price prospect is uncertain(due mainly to the current volatility in the mkt), medium term prospect is STRONG and with a lot of drive.

My advice: Just follow ur instinct.

No further comment on UACN !!

For those who care to know, this report from ARM inv. on UACN(which is broadly in line with some of our past analysis here) shows the huge feasible potential in the coy !!
The wise ones are aligning into the growth story now.
This coy will surely surprise a lot of folks at the time of reckoning !!
...see report below

UAC Nigeria Plc - Old things have passed away…

"In this report, we resume coverage on UACN with a target price of N96 which translates to a BUY rating at current price.
While UACN’s history of reporting poor operating performance dulled investor’s sentiment, we believe lower finance cost and little or no impairment charge in coming years, post exit from UPDC, supports a rerating. Coupled with recovery in the feeds business, we see improvement in earnings over our forecast period.
Comparing 5-year historical average EV/EBITDA of 9.9x, to current level of 3.3x, UACN presents a good entry point on current valuation.
At current price and based on our FY 19E dividend of N0.65, we view expected dividend yield of 10.6% as attractive and could be compelling to investors."

Restructuring exercise is POSITIVE for UACN.
"Ahead of the planned restructuring of UACN (which would involve UACN’s outright dissolution of its interest in UPDC directly to its shareholders), UPDC was classified as a discontinued operation as at 9M 19 unaudited numbers. Accordingly, related finance cost and impairment charges (through the fair value difference between UPDC REIT and market value) were classified as discontinued operation, leaving UACN 9M 19 numbers at the strongest level we modelled post restructuring. With the exclusion of UPDC from 9M numbers and restatement of prior year, UACN delivered EBIT and PBT expansion of 175bps and 150bps YoY respectively, with EPS growing 30% YoY.
Notably, without the exclusion of UPDC and restatement of the prior year, UACN would have reported a loss after tax of N8 billion (9M 18 loss of N994 million).
With the exclusion of the volatility emanating from impairment charge on the real estate property and higher finance expense (UPDC account for 80% to 90% of total UACN borrowings) we expect stable growth in earnings over our forecast period, with EPS CAGR of 12.4% between..."

Recovery in feeds business to soften OPEX pressure.
"Our market survey revealed that OLAM and UACN’s feed products now sell at similar price points, as OLAM steps down its aggressive pricing strategy.
As a result, we see improvement in sales from feeds with contribution to group revenue gradually picking up to pre-2018 levels.
In the short term, we believe the extended border closure creates some incentive for sales upside for local poultry products and by extension the feeds business."

Value play or value trap?
"With the recovery in sale of feeds already evident in the 9M 19 numbers, amidst flattened cost, we expect improvement in gross and operating margins by 117bps and 116bps YoY to 19% and 3.9% respectively in 2019.
Though the management guided to an improvement in its operating expense, we are less optimistic of a significant change as the company has only been able to tame the cost and not reduce it as at 9M 19.
On that note, we left opex to sales ratio unchanged at 15% till 2020 and gradual improvement from 2021 with mild improvement in operating margin to 4.1% in 2020 and average of 7% over FY21-24.
Further down, with reduced finance cost and absence of impairment charge, following the reclassification of UPDC as discontinued operation, we expect earnings from continued operation to print at N1.35 in 2020 (N1.32 in FY 19E from a loss per share of N2.08 recorded in the prior year) with 5-year earnings CAGR of 12.4% between 2020 and 2024.
At current market price, UACN trades at 2019E and 2020E EV/EBITDA of 3.12x and 3.01x respectively, which is attractive when compared to 5-year historical average of 9.9x."

Are my eyes deceiving me? Is this suppose to be N9.60 [quote author=onegentleguy post=84386105]

UAC Nigeria Plc - Old things have passed away…

"In this report, we resume coverage on UACN with a target price of N96 which translates to a BUY rating at current price.