mendes911:


I trust their MM too.

But never say never. They might get overpowered.

But if they show their hand, I will party with them.

Let see how it will go, we are waiting for them to play the game

pluto09:



Fcmb don show you something. I am surprised loco was trusting those guys again ....

Ride with FCMB result and probably get burnt, ride with FCMB MM and make money.

Access bank is another bank that has got a great MM. I hope their FY result be a bit disappointing and that will create an opportunity to ride with their MM that very day for a quick 10%!

Today I learnt a new thing that will help me in the rest of my trading days.

Never to accumulate a stock before result.(uncertainty)


To sell a stock once the exit price is met(not to be greedy).

Happy weekend pals

locodemy:
Today I learnt a new thing that will help me in the rest of my trading days.

Never to accumulate a stock before result.(uncertainty)


To sell a stock once the exit price is met(not to be greedy).

Happy weekend pals

I promise you that before this year runs out, you will forget these two rules......
There is no rule book in the stock market, everyone has lost his last copy.....

I am trying to find out the subsidiary of FCMB with this name. Anyone that knows should please help me.

Oga Loco, do not be in a haste to bail out of FCMB oooo. They have a very good MM.

locodemy:
Today I learnt a new thing that will help me in the rest of my trading days.

Never to accumulate a stock before result.(uncertainty)


To sell a stock once the exit price is met(not to be greedy).

Happy weekend pals

rebekah2011:
I am trying to find out the subsidiary of FCMB with this name. Anyone that knows should please help me.

With all due respect, ask their NN "marketers".

#Heels.....

rebekah2011:
Oga Loco, do not be in a haste to bail out of FCMB oooo. They have a very good MM .

#DevilsAdvocate!

What if they are broke?

Allow people to follow their mind though.

FCMB you mean[/quote]

Thanks. It is FCMB corrected

Oga Loco's exit will create a PANIC in the market. Imagine 1b units trying to exit FCMB on Monday. I suspect we are going to have a bear Monday

mendes911:


#DevilsAdvocate!

What if they are broke?

Allow people to follow their mind though.

rebekah2011:
Oga Loco's exit will create a PANIC in the market. Imagine 1b units trying to exit FCMB on Monday. I suspect we are going to have a bear Monday

I would advice everyone with FCMB shares to watch the direction of the price carefully on Monday before deciding whether to hold/sell.

In q3 2017, FCMB declared a PAT of about 5.5b but yet the price rose till about 3.50 naira. But in this case, the PAT is even better.

So do not rush in taking any decision.

I agree Sir. But with Oga Loco deciding to sell, I cannot guarantee that it will go north oooo

Calebbold:


I would advice everyone with FCMB shares to watch the direction of the price carefully on Monday before deciding whether to hold/sell.

In q3 2017, FCMB declared a PAT of about 5.5b but yet the price rose till about 3.50 naira. But in this case, the PAT is even better.

So do not rush in taking any decision.

At 1st glance, the just released Q3 report from FCMB came in SLIGHTLY below expectation.
That said, the result is NEVER a bad one !! ...but a relatively OK performance where key financial determinants still shows that feasible REWARD pegs far ahead of any would-be drawback within the period under review.

The drop in NET MARGIN was chiefly driven by a material drawdown in a one-off earnings line(other income) compared to the previous quarter.
However, looking at the banks financial print in its entirety(including certain key revenue and earnings determinants), growth/earnings trajectory remains INTACT !!(discounted risk from EM against YE reward margin in view)

There's a lot to say but the good thing is that the report still presents a far less worry(risk margin in view) than feasible REWARD for an EQUITY HOLDER !!
...and so unless one had read the report upside down, there is absolutely NO need to banter.

Without a doubt, current fundamental stance still leaves more optimism for REWARD than pessimism with RISK(risk-return in view)
Our FVE still retains a great premium from current mkt price.

To those who hold the stock, hear this; Q3 financial print says its WORTH HOLDING !!
So remain CALM. ...but if u wont, pls SELL. Sure there'll be those who'd gladly take up ur stake.

Selah

rebekah2011:
I agree Sir. But with Oga Loco deciding to sell, I cannot guarantee that it will go north oooo

Lollll ... I know oga loco is big but he cannot be bigger than the 'MM'.

I absolutely believe FCMB wouldn't trail too far behind FIDELITY.

rebekah2011:
I agree Sir. But with Oga Loco deciding to sell, I cannot guarantee that it will go north oooo

He does not know what Oga Loco caused in Zenith......
That 18.50 guy is our very Sir Loco, never stand in his way, the units coming to the market can easily bury your cash alive.....

I am not claiming to sell my fcmb on Monday o.
I will only sacrifice to give bears 8% from the 32% paper profit as at today.

When is what I don't know........

locodemy:
I am not claiming to sell my fcmb on Monday o.
I will only sacrifice to give bears 8% from the 32% paper profit as at today.

When is what I don't know........

You could rush to sell then regret later. The bank did not make a loss and will still rally when the bulls come fully. The EPS and other ratios are not bad at all and good enough to even pay good dividend.

Also, the stock market has a mind of its own. Sterling Bank and some other stocks rally with a result not as good as FCMB. There could be a pull back but it will still rally and rise above current price. Just watch the crocodile smile and be confident.

Just a piece of advice. Your decision is inviolable.

onegentleguy:
Yet another perspective to the VALUE proposition in UACN(weighted against its subset, UPDC and UPDC REITS)

Aside the thing about comparing their ALTMAN Z-SCORE(which I highted in the past), there's a bit more.

...a brief;

1st off; according to the proposed unbundling, the shareholders of UACN are to get stakes in UPDC and UPDC REITS post rights issuance to updc shareholders, which is expected to raise near N16B to offset the bridge loan taken from UACN.

3 benefits;

1) Given that the allotment of shares comes post rights issue by UPDC, the shareholders of UACN are totally exempt from any impact of a likely equity dilution.

2) UACN will get a good boost from the leverage(approx N16B) accrued from the rights.
Again, UACN will also indirectly benefit from all the restructuring initiative of the unbundling, including an asset allocation with a current mkt value of near N9B to UPDC(plus an interest payment of over N20B accrued to updc in the reits)

3) The unbundling and 'gifting' to current shareholders of UACN also means they'll immediately partake of accrual gains and future EV(enterprise values) of the subsets, updc and updc-reits.

Using the sum of all parts(SOTP) valuation technique(an indicative tool used to guage the likely value of the subsidiaries/constituents that form a holding company when been sold/spun off or divested from), we can further look in on the inherent VALUE passable to the group.(UACN)
...The idea is to break up the 2 subsets away from the holding coy/conglomerate, and try to value them seperately.

Using this technique(adjudged from the benefits with the subsets updc and updc-reits EV, RoIC, EV to EBIT, OS, PEG and P/B) as well as its current financial status in view, and adjusting for risk, I have a re-adjusted FVE of approx N18.25 for UACN.
...this is assuming zero% growth to YE.(Assuming that UACN makes zero earning in H2, 2019)

Away from the proposed unbundling, the group is also looking to spun off from its hotel business arm, updc hotel(UHL) to aide more leverage.(assets classified as held for sale/distribution to owners in view)
...and a total revamp of its quick service restaurant arm(UAC restaurant) to further boost earnings.

VERDICT: UACN remains a strong BUY for us !!
While short term price prospect is uncertain(due mainly to the current volatility in the mkt), medium term prospect is STRONG and with a lot of drive.

My advice: Just follow ur instinct.

No further comment on UACN !!

https://trwstockbrokers./2019/11/29/uac-of-nigeria-q3-2019-results-review-earnings-boosted-by-business-repositioning/

Coined from the link above:

"Our sum-of-the-parts valuation implies a price target of N13.8, which is around 27% higher than previous. Our new price target implies a potential upside of 88% from current levels. Despite the tough consumer landscape, we consider the expected y/y improvements in UACN’s quarterly earnings, along with the considerable upside potential, as strong positives. We therefore retain our Outperform rating on the shares."

The research team folks @ FBN QUEST are good.
...very much in line with some of our past analysis and assertions.(compare the parts in bold)
However I think they may not have given sufficient room for the accruals passable to the group, especially with the asset allocation from the REITS. ...which should be the reason for the over N4 shortfall in both valuations.
...otherwise, FVE ought to be higher.

It is well.

locodemy:


When they finally remove the happiness of shareholders(2.50) from the share price.

It's goodbye Janet.

rebekah2011:
I agree Sir. But with Oga Loco deciding to sell, I cannot guarantee that it will go north oooo

How many units does he have?

Market will absorb the whole thing and still be looking for more sef.

Even Unity with losses year after year is appreciating. The bank just had a shortfall of around 5% fall in PAT compared to same quarter last year and he wants to sell.

Calebbold:


I would advice everyone with FCMB shares to watch the direction of the price carefully on Monday before deciding whether to hold/sell.

In q3 2017, FCMB declared a PAT of about 5.5b but yet the price rose till about 3.50 naira. But in this case, the PAT is even better.

So do not rush in taking any decision.

Jaiz and Wema are gaining in price despite their less than N3b PAT declared and very low EPS.

Going into year end, FCMB should do around 60 to 62Kobo EPS and based on current price this will be a a PE of 3.3

The result not that bad in my opinion.

At least we saw UACN with discontinued operation in huge negative, yet the price is noiw N8.

onegentleguy:
At 1st glance, the just released Q3 report from FCMB came in SLIGHTLY below expectation.
That said, the result is NEVER a bad one !! ...but a relatively OK performance where key financial determinants still shows that feasible REWARD pegs far ahead of any would-be drawback within the period under review.

The drop in NET MARGIN was chiefly driven by a material drawdown in a one-off earnings line(other income) compared to the previous quarter.
However, looking at the banks financial print(including certain key revenue and earnings determinants) in its entirety, growth/earnings trajectory remains INTACT !!(discounted risk from EM against YE reward margin in view)

There's a lot to say but the good thing is that the report still presents a far less worry(risk margin in view) than feasible REWARD for an EQUITY HOLDER !!
...and so unless one had read the report upside down, there is absolutely NO need to banter.

Without a doubt, current fundamental stance still leaves more optimism for REWARD than pessimism with RISK(risk-return in view)
Our FVE still retains a great premium from current mkt price.

To those who hold the stock, hear this; Q3 financial print says its WORTH HOLDING !!
So remain CALM. ...but if u wont, pls SELL. Sure there'll be those who'd gladly take up ur stake.

Selah

Take 3 bottles and be drinking with one okwa of isi ewu, I am coming to pay

When GTB gets to 39, Zenith gets to 27, Access gets to 13, people will remember that FCMB had been depressed to a low price due to sell-down (if there will be any) and they will start calculating that with the money of GTB, they can buy 15 FCMB and you see them rush for the stock.

Market is warming up for better things.

locodemy:
I am not claiming to sell my fcmb on Monday o.
I will only sacrifice to give bears 8% from the 32% paper profit as at today.

When is what I don't know........

Do you remember when companies release good results, stocks fall massively? Now the reverse is the case

As they churn out bad results, the stock will even be doing 10%. See Jaiz, Unity going very high.

Unity has not paid Dividends for many years o, yet it is gaining 10%. It has negative SHF, yet people still dey buy am

Do you want to tell me that people have not peeped the result since? Are you saying they just saw the result today? yet the stock did not crash land since.

Buputa ibu gi....

RabbiDoracle:


Do you remember when companies release good results, stocks fall massively? Now the reverse is the case

As they churn out bad results, the stock will even be doing 10%. See Jaiz, Unity going very high.

Unity has not paid Dividends for many years o, yet it is gaining 10%. It has negative SHF, yet people still dey buy am

Do you want to tell me that people have not peeped the result since? Are you saying they just saw the result today? yet the stock did not crash land since.

Buputa ibu gi....

Exactly!!!

rebekah2011:
Oga Loco's exit will create a PANIC in the market. Imagine 1b units trying to exit FCMB on Monday. I suspect we are going to have a bear Monday

You guys will not woundjure Loco before Monday market. Chai!!
I focused on the price movement of Xtyday, the body language was somehow..................and at a point in time, I decided to let go of my afolabi units, saying I may come back after result is out.
Loco pls dont be in haste, to me the result is not that bad. I didnt check it o, but just saying this based on Yok's summary of expected and actual result. Jijo will be sweet here sha.
Sometimes we cant know it all in this market.
We continue to learn. It is well.

robobo:


d guy no serious instead make hin come meet us for our junction (17) he dey carry d kaya for head dey wait at 18.50

na headache go injure am for dat junction with the kaya wen hin carry for head

if hin like make hin no come our junction make we help am relieve am of d heavy load wey hin carry for head

Something that was at 16 for a long time, now it took off and you are still at the bus stop waiting.

If December accelerates, any profit taking will not dent the price. All bank stocks are cruising above the Kumo on the daily ichimoku.

Further rise in December will mean that they have started cruising above the Kumo on the weekly. Access is the only bank that is comfortably above the cloud on the weekly.

Once a stock is above the kumo, profit taking will only bring it down a little but it is still where it is.

RabbiDoracle:


Jaiz and Wema are gaining in price despite their less than N3b PAT declared and very low EPS.

Going into year end, FCMB should do around 60 to 62Kobo EPS and based on current price this will be a a PE of 3.3

The result not that bad in my opinion.

At least we saw UACN with discontinued operation in huge negative, yet the price is noiw N8.

Dear bro,
Using the clause; "not that bad" would even interpret to mean that the result is to an extent bad, but which is clearly NOT the case.

The truth is that FCMB' Q3 performance is not great but is undoubtedly GOOD ENOUGH to be termed; a fairly good result !!
The most important thing is that the results still highlights that feasible REWARD for a stakeholder continues to run/peg far ahead of any inherent RISK.
Over a collective of certain key financial reviews, the coy remains underpriced with a great MoS away from current mkt price.
The stock will still outperform(risk-return in view)

Regards

DeRuggedProf:
He does not know what Oga Loco caused in Zenith......
That 18.50 guy is our very Sir Loco, never stand in his way, the units coming to the market can easily bury your cash alive.....

Chai!!!

RabbiDoracle:


Take 3 bottles and be drinking with one okwa of isi ewu, I am coming to pay

When GTB gets to 39, Zenith gets to 27, Access gets to 13, people will remember that FCMB had been depressed to a low price due to sell-down (if there will be any) and they will start calculating that with the money of GTB, they can buy 15 FCMB and you see them rush for the stock.

Market is warming up for better things.

That part in bold is very IMPORTANT !!

onegentleguy:


Dear bro,
using the clause; "not that bad" would even interpret to mean that the result is to an extent, bad. ...but which is clearly NOT the case.

The truth is that FCMB' Q3 performance is not great but is undoubtedly GOOD ENOUGH to be termed; a fairly good result !!
The most important thing though is that the results still highlights that feasible REWARD for a stakeholder continues to run/peg far ahead of any inherent RISK.
Over a collective of certain key financial reviews, the coy remains underpriced, with a great MoS away from current mkt price.
The stock will still outperform(risk-return in view)

Regards

Pardon me. You know say na night school I go. So we turn English upside down.

N9 stock priced at N2.

RabbiDoracle:


Do you remember when companies release good results, stocks fall massively? Now the reverse is the case

As they churn out bad results, the stock will even be doing 10%. See Jaiz, Unity going very high.

Unity has not paid Dividends for many years o, yet it is gaining 10%. It has negative SHF, yet people still dey buy am

Do you want to tell me that people have not peeped the result since? Are you saying they just saw the result today? yet the stock did not crash land since.

Buputa ibu gi....

...and it shall be swallowed at the time of reckoning !!

Thats why I love that man called 'Mr TIME'

RabbiDoracle:
As they churn out bad results, the stock will even be doing 10%. See Jaiz, Unity going very high.
Do you want to tell me that people have not peeped the result since? Are you saying they just saw the result today? yet the stock did not crash land since. Buputa ibu gi....

I concur sir. The result must have been priced in, based on my observation. It might not fall that much before it rises again.