senatordave1:
Wit- wike rounding off his tenure and likely trying to install an ikwerre successor and with his average performance,can apc capture rivers if they field a non ikwerre candidate?

Mynd44
Charrisgrace
77up
Kingkakaone
Ekinematics
Oyindidi
Obuksbayelsa
Kenone
Moventist
Movic
Rusher14
Christiannorth
Shegzy
Skengman
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Ekpeitit
Nairalandtopuser

senatordave1:
Wit- wike rounding off his tenure and likely trying to install an ikwerre successor and with his average performance,can apc capture rivers if they field a non ikwerre candidate?

Mynd44
Charrisgrace
77up
Kingkakaone
Ekinematics
Oyindidi
Obuksbayelsa
Kenone
Moventist
Movic
Rusher14
Christiannorth
Shegzy
Skengman
Kahal
Ekpeitit
Nairalandtopuser

Dasuks:


Ikwerre candidate or not. The winner will have to win Ikwerree controlled areas of OBALGA and PHALGA. Politics is about interest. Whoever does their homework well will win.

Anybody that approaches the election on an ethnic basis will lose woefully. Ikwerre LGAs like OBALGA and PHALGA while not homogenously Ikwerre are controlled politically by them... so why antagonize when u can sell ur candidacy with smarts The other LGAs combined (tho Andoni and Ogoni are quite big ) dont measure up to either aforementioned LGAs.

HopeAtHand:
Ikwerres areas have half voting strength, appeal to them.

Ekpeitit:
It depends on the candidate and who is sponsoring the candidate.

helinues:
What if Wike potted to Apc as he is currently having hard time with Pdp goons

senatordave1:

Highly unlikely

helinues:


And why is that?

Should Pdp cede their presidency to North again, how is that going to benefits Wike?

senatordave1:

He would make sure that doesn't happsn

helinues:


And why is that?

Should Pdp cede their presidency to North again, how is that going to benefits Wike?

Blackking98:
I'm a pdp sympathatiser but if they field a northerner in 2023 and APC fields a southerner I will vote APC. I'm from akwa ibom btw before some funny elements will start shouting afonja

Dasuks:


Ikwerre candidate or not. The winner will have to win Ikwerree controlled areas of OBALGA and PHALGA. Politics is about interest. Whoever does their homework well will win.

Anybody that approaches the election on an ethnic basis will lose woefully. Ikwerre LGAs like OBALGA and PHALGA while not homogenously Ikwerre are controlled politically by them... so why antagonize when u can sell ur candidacy with smarts The other LGAs combined (tho Andoni and Ogoni are quite big ) dont measure up to either aforementioned LGAs.

senatordave1:

I agree but with wike on his way out,the real voting power of obalga and phalga will be exposed,no more inflations while amaechi will deliver ikwerre and emohua.votes from here and ogoni can cage ikwerre votez

Dasuks:


Ikwerre and Emohua are still Ikwerre.. ogoni votes is for ogoni.. Ogoni can produce governor due to size and with the proper alliances. The issue now is the riverine areas. They cannot parlay any votes per se.

Obalga and phalga served amaechi well In 2011. Theyre not gonna diminish it just for the sake of a fight u know? Instead try to use it for their own ends. And as I said Ikwerre and Emohua are still Ikwerre in the end. So all roads pass thru them. Proper politicking is required.

Just like how say SW is positioning for presidency by seeking a good settlement with the North. U cant approach the matter with threats and anger. Asari them blowing up here and there is just funny. Ijaw boys will still be used by Wike them on election day against Ijaw interest. In fact, mama P wont even say anything.

Ogoni and other groups are not gonna themselves surrender their votes for any riverine candidate just like that. They have their own agenda and own sons that are fit for the post. It's not gonna be emotional come election day. Because another man cannot share ur grievances or reduce his votes to be an instrument of correcting 'injustice'. There has to be a catch for him...

And u haven't factored in Wike joining the APC or offering the APC access to inflated 1 million plus votes... that's very attractive to any national electoral process.

otuekong1:

Stop deceiving yourself, Any candidate from the riverine rivers backed by other Riverine LGA will win Rivers state.
Mind you if Tonye Cole had been on the ballot I doubt if wike would have won

senatordave1:

Top notch analysis but i see the bayelsa scenario repeating itself.amaechi power will be at the zenith in 2023 while that of wike will diminish.he will be left with a few lgas to negotiate with.if the ijaws and ogonis can reach a compromise,it makes it easier.a look at the 2018 polls reveals that where amaechi could influence was obalga and andoni and inec to a large extent saved him.in terms of field personnel,he was outmuscled

otuekong1:

Stop deceiving yourself, Any candidate from the riverine rivers backed by other Riverine LGA will win Rivers state.
Mind you if Tonye Cole had been on the ballot I doubt if wike would have won

Dasuks:


My guy makes sense. But u see my issue is with the whole anti Ikwerre emotional card. Ppl realize that Amaechi too is Ikwerre? U have to win his sympathy and work with him. Cant just apprpach the matter with the 'Bleep Ikwerre' movement. Cos u need the other Ikwerre dude to beat the other one. And I'll tell u that beneath the fights there is a shared bond/kinship that can be triggered if they share the view that the other groups are tryna impose a pre 1999 sorta anti Ikwerre posture toward state power.. how can u expose ur hands that easily?

Tho I think for sure that Amaechi will be a powerful federal figure, his enemies in the apc could tout the idea of wike being more relevant and hence deserving of their courtship. U seem reasonable so u get me right? Politics na chess. All benefit and goals...

Men should play it strategically. No one will be handed governorship just like that.

senatordave1:

My brother,am not arguing with you.you are making a lot of sense.i just feel that by 2023 majority of the electoral factors will be in favor of apc while the power of wike is dwindling.

helinues:


That is exactly what some people dont know ..

Majority of the southern politicians irrespective of their party affiliations want the power to return to south in 2023.. Umahi bluntly warned his aides never to attack Buhari or Apc

Wike's media personel has changed his tones towards Buhari and his government.. That is going to almost a year now ( Scan news)

Ikperemadu and co are still bitter about how they were sidelined at this year polls..

If Pdp can't zone their presidency to SE, they should at least zone it to SS

Blackking98:
Exactly and I'm sure wike will contest in the primaries. We need to put our differences aside as we can't afford to cede power to the north irrespective of party lines come 2023. 2015 has come and gone. We need to move foward. I just realized your username. First time we're ever agreeing on something and I'm happy. Thank God

OBUKSBAYELSA:
There is a big possibility for APC to win in Rivers given the fact that the riverine Ijaw people now seem to getting better United than they were in the past. secondly the altercation between Wike and Dickson will certainly push the riverine people to APC, moreover the role played by Wike in the Bayelsa PDP loss will bring about a payback from Dickson supporters against Wike. whoever win has to work hard in Phalga and Obalga. Give and take APC has a good chance.

senatordave1:
How many are ikwerre indigenous voters or actually vote

HopeAtHand:


1.5millions of 2.5million. its not about what you know but what you can prove.