RabbiDoracle:


Yeah. A gap up in my opinion. Not a gap down.

Gap down sir.

When I get home, I will show you the VAP reading for Pound - Dollar. As at market close last week.

The Euro - Dollar might get to 1.02XX if it plays out same way as the Pound - Dollar did.

Report Suggests CBN Devalues Naira by 15%
https://businesspost.ng/economy/report-suggests-cbn-devalues-naira-by-15/

RabbiDoracle:


I just hope US and EU will not bill China for this economic damage they have suffered.

The most funny part of it all is that China has recovered and passed the baton to US and European countries

Dow jumps 347 points, continuing Wall Street’s coronavirus recovery
.
..
...
https://nypost.com/2020/03/20/dow-jumps-347-points-continuing-wall-streets-coronavirus-recovery/

The flu in 1957-1958 that killed more than a million people originated from Asia too, but with advanced medical ability now and technology for cities to shutdown and the media to transmit information it should be better contained than the 1957 pandemic �

onegentleguy:
I just received an unconfirmed report that the CBN has adjusted the Fx sales peg to FPIs from the initial N366.70/$ to N380.20/$.
...the interpretation of this is that the apex bank(CBN) may have already devalued the currency by approx 3.7% given current realities.

The move might not be unconnected to the FPIs folks jettisoning of OMO sales by the apex bank yesterday.

This move, together with the CBN' recent guidance on stimulus(including a proposed N1.1 trillion intervention fund) to sectors with high 1st point of impact, will act to give a good measure of cushion to any feasible shock from the aftermath of the twin 'evil' of covid-19 and strain in oil price.
The next sensible thing to do is to ensure that the proposed budget amendment is done in a way that sets realistic targets, and not those "forward-looking assumed pegs" as seen in the last 2020 budget.
...then remove the 'evil' called subsidy, and re-align those accruals towards expanding/diversifying our economic base. This is the best opportunity/time to do so !!
Then enact and pass the expanded version of the PIB, and amend the Land use act, and we' ll be good to go !!
But of course, implementing these items can only be imagined with our current leaders and policy makers !!

All the same, great move from the CBN !!

For those who still think that this is not the best time to align with healthy assets/coys(selective buying with MoS compression to valuation in view) or who are still waiting on the side line in a bid to time the market, I sincerely wish u Good luck !!

Selah

onegentleguy:


Am inclined to agree with u !!

However, some of those rates are at best 'ceremonial'
...forget the CBN rate. it has never been a feasible rate !! And yes, I think the interbank rate usually pegs near or @ par to that of NAFEX.
For me, the 2 main Windows are NAFEX and the parallel mkt rate.

I think the CBN may have to converge this current window and others to the one thats mostly in use(nafex)
We await further guideline from the CBN @ the next MPC meeting next week !!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/nigerian-central-bank-starts-uniform-exchange-rate-for-naira

"Nigeria’s central bank will migrate to a single exchange rate for the naira by collapsing the multiple exchange rate policy that determined the value for the local currency, people with direct knowledge of the matter said.
...the West African nation will merge the official rate, the rate for importers and exporters and rate for foreign-exchange bureaus, among others, according to the people who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the matter."

...things are beginning to get really interesting !!

cc @ RabbiDoracle, @robobo

onegentleguy:



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/nigerian-central-bank-starts-uniform-exchange-rate-for-naira

"Nigeria’s central bank will migrate to a single exchange rate for the naira by collapsing the multiple exchange rate policy that determined the value for the local currency, people with direct knowledge of the matter said.
...the West African nation will merge the official rate, the rate for importers and exporters and rate for foreign-exchange bureaus, among others, according to the people who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the matter."

...things are beginning to get really interesting !!

cc @ RabbiDoracle, @robobo

lancee:
https://businessday.ng/breaking-news/article/cbn-technically-devalues-naira-to-now-sell-dollars-to-foreign-investors-at-n380/

lancee:



Waiting for the tension to cool so as not to add more

Corona /Brent ..Dem no wan add more tension to wetin dey ground ..After they will come


**JOKING **

Inflation

Godisfaithful:

Oga myjoy08 .. what is the way forward..

@chibuking
Looks like the Fpi guys will be forced to come to the market any moment from now.Once the CBN policy favours them,they don't look at the fall in oil prices again

Liquidity will prevent the part 2 bonanza and April will be better than expected.

Oga Oracle and other financial gurus pls throw more light on this recent move by CBN in introducing uniform exchange rate and devaluation of naira.


I already know one of the consequences is inflation.

We just dey enta d danger zone small small. Who knows the next move for those in service?

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/382618-coronavirus-nigeria-halts-recruitment-exercises.html

We just need update of reserve. Who knows their next move if Brent start trading below $20? They might end up devaluing it again. Our economy is too fragile, it can't bear shock. Nigerian government needs to invest in infrastructural development, security, constant electricity and good policy for manufacturing business to thrive in Nigeria.They need to help Nnewi people to realize there dream. We don't need to depend on volatile commodities.

locodemy:
@chibuking
Looks like the Fpi guys will be forced to come to the market any moment from now.Once the CBN policy favours them,they don't look at the fall in oil prices again

Liquidity will prevent the part 2 bonanza and April will be better than expected.

Oga Oracle and other financial gurus pls throw more light on this recent move by CBN in introducing uniform exchange rate and devaluation of naira.


I already know one of the consequences is inflation.

Stock will be cheaper

locodemy:
@chibuking
Looks like the Fpi guys will be forced to come to the market any moment from now.Once the CBN policy favours them,they don't look at the fall in oil prices again

Liquidity will prevent the part 2 bonanza and April will be better than expected.

Oga Oracle and other financial gurus pls throw more light on this recent move by CBN in introducing uniform exchange rate and devaluation of naira.


I already know one of the consequences is inflation.

If you are one of FPI will you come?, the devaluation part 1 just happened, part 2 and part 3 are on their way coming.

Whenever there is shortage of dollar due to fall in price of crude oil, the heat from it will be on naira and stock price.

Compare crude oil at $70, Nigeria budget benchmark at $58 with market opportunity of selling close to 2 million barrel per a day, with;

Crude oil price dancing around $25/$30 dollar, 50% shortfall in price, with crude oil vessels
filled with crude oil hovering on the sea with no buyer. And you expect the naira to still remain within the region of #360/380 per a dollar.

Why dollar has not skyrocketed is because borders, airport are close down, the importers are no longer travelling to China and other countries for goods due to fear of contracting corona virus this reduces the demand of dollar, our politicians are no longer travelling abroad in the name of medical treatment, this also reduces the demand of dollar.

Some stocks price will likely fall by 20% or more between this March and April, even as Saudi Arabia engaged in doubling the amount of crude oil supply at reduce price level.

Except if Nigeria government suspend stock trading, which will bring about further fall once the ban is lifted.

WEAC has suspended their exams till further notice, schools in Nigeria were been shut down by federal and state government, soon government might ban daily market where women sells food item, and some churches activities are ban.

Do we think that economic will flourish in the midst of these uncertainty. If crude oil remains down, many state government might not pay their workers salary and this pose another economic and social challenges.

The FAAC where federal , state and LGA share money, their meeting of this month held within this week ended in deadlock. Government has not shared money for this month, I believed that this was caused by fall in crude oil price.

People will first eat pay their bill before thinking of investing more.

Chibuking81:

If you are one of them will you come?, the devaluation part 1 just happened, part 2 and part 3 are on their way coming.

but they also want us devalue nah so few millions of dollars would be chasing several billions of good stocks

onegentleguy:



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/nigerian-central-bank-starts-uniform-exchange-rate-for-naira

"Nigeria’s central bank will migrate to a single exchange rate for the naira by collapsing the multiple exchange rate policy that determined the value for the local currency, people with direct knowledge of the matter said.
...the West African nation will merge the official rate, the rate for importers and exporters and rate for foreign-exchange bureaus, among others, according to the people who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the matter."

...things are beginning to get really interesting !!

cc @ RabbiDoracle, @robobo

it cld b a major game changer if they go all d way (convergence of all fx windows) though d impact might be delayed for a
while because d FPI might tarry a little to see hw dey intend to play d game just like when dey introduce I & E window and d impact wasnt felt in d market (NSE) for sme few weeks after its introduction

Tribute to a music icon Kenny Rogers the Godfather of BARGAIN HUNTERS

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8137345/Country-music-icon-Kenny-Rogers-dies-aged-81.html

Chibuking81:

If you are one of FPI will you come?, the devaluation part 1 just happened, part 2 and part 3 are on their way coming.

Whenever there is shortage of dollar due to fall in price of crude oil, the heat from it will be on naira and stock price.

Compare crude oil at $70, Nigeria budget benchmark at $58 with market opportunity of selling close to 2 million barrel per a day, with;

Crude oil price dancing around $25/$30 dollar, 50% shortfall in price, with crude oil vessels
filled with crude oil hovering on the sea with no buyer. And you expect the naira to still remain within the region of #360/380 per a dollar.

Why dollar has not skyrocketed is because borders, airport are close down, the importers are no longer travelling to China and other countries for goods due to fear of contracting corona virus this reduces the demand of dollar, our politicians are no longer travelling abroad in the name of medical treatment, this also reduces the demand of dollar.

Some stocks price will likely fall by 20% or more between this March and April, even as Saudi Arabia engaged in doubling the amount of crude oil supply at reduce price level.

Except if Nigeria government suspend stock trading, which will bring about further fall once the ban is lifted.

WEAC has suspended their exams till further notice, schools in Nigeria were been shut down by federal and state government, soon government might ban daily market where women sells food item, and some churches activities are ban.

Do we think that economic will flourish in the midst of these uncertainty. If crude oil remains down, many state government might not pay their workers salary and this pose another economic and social challenges.

The FAAC where federal , state and LGA share money, their meeting of this month held within this week ended in deadlock. Government has not shared money for this month, I believed that this was caused by fall in crude oil price.

People will first eat pay their bill before thinking of investing more.

Stocks must fall by thunder and fire so that you can buy cheap.Is only God that knows the future.Though you are entitled to your opinion.Even without oil Nigeria will still exists and even be better.This ITk and yet the government didn't appoint you as member of economic adviser.You think all those caliber of men that made up the economic team are figure head

"If you're gonna play the game, boy
You gotta learn to play it right
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done-kenny Rogers

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MN1AtzLrW4Y

Biafran4life:
Stocks must fall by thunder and fire so that you can buy cheap.Is only God that knows the future.Though you are entitled to your opinion.Even without oil Nigeria will still exists and even be better.This ITk and yet the government didn't appoint you as member of economic adviser.You think all those caliber of men that made up the economic team are figure head

Except the OP has offended you in the past ,i dont see any reason for this response. We cant all share thesame view,there is beauty in having divergent views.

Biafran4life:
Stocks must fall by thunder and fire so that you can buy cheap.Is only God that knows the future.Though you are entitled to your opinion.Even without oil Nigeria will still exists and even be better.This ITk and yet the government didn't appoint you as member of economic adviser.You think all those caliber of men that made up the economic team are figure head

God bless you, sir. Although, I'm not in support of your harsh response. However, it's so obvious Sir Chi is not in the market.

Will Japoul sell below N0.20?. If the response is no, then I'm certain fundamentally sound stocks like GTB and Zenith(etc) will not go below N0.20. If this is the case, I repeat, we d!e here!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZeUv8Cs2S4

https://nairametrics.com/2020/03/20/fg-closes-3-airports-over-coronavirus/

...more earnings accrual for CAVERTON as their helicopters fleet serve as an alternative means to certain select class of air transportation.

Around my home, I have observed that the No of helicopter movements to and fro the Naval Air force base in PH(where CAVERTON has their zonal office) has more than tripled !!

...it'd be interesting to see how their Q1 2020 result will look like. YE 2019 FP should come in good, given that the company was already ahead of estimate as at Q3 2019 compared to YE 2018.

CAVERTON is one of the few coys I consider antifragile (can benefit from) in light of the current event from covid-19.

onegentleguy:
https://nairametrics.com/2020/03/20/fg-closes-3-airports-over-coronavirus/

...more earnings accrual for CAVERTON as their helicopters fleet serve as an alternative means to certain select class of air transportation.

Around my home, I have observed that the No of helicopter movements to and fro the Naval Air force base in PH(where CAVERTON has their zonal office) has more than tripled !!

...it'd be interesting to see how their Q1 2020 result will look like. YE 2019 FP should come in good, given that the company was already ahead of estimate as at Q3 2019 compared to YE 2018.

CAVERTON is one of the few coys I consider antifragile (can benefit from) in light of the current event from covid-19.

So I did a broad analysis(using several key variants) to look in on the possible Winners and Losers with the current events in play(covid-19 & oil price strain)... and I found out that the other antifragile coys(aside CAVERTON) are DANGOTE SUGAR, UACN, FLOURMILLS, MTN, PZ, GSK, NEIMETH(and other coys in the health sector), OKOMU OIL and PRESCO.(the 1st 6, particularly the 1st(DS) are superb)

While the likes of WAPCO, ZENITH, GTB, UBA, FCMB, FIDELITY, CADBURY, CAP, BETAGLASS and NB PLC are among coys I consider rubust(with BS/CFs that are strong enough to get through the current crisis).
Again I like the 1st 6, particularly the 1st 3.

For coys that would likely be losers(the worst hit), ALL OIL & GAS COYS(particularly TOTAL and OANDO), NACHO, SKYAVN, TRANSCORP HOTEL, TRANSCORP, VITAFOAM and UNILEVER. ...albeit with the least degree of impact on the last 2 coys.

The way to go;

Of the ANTIFRAGILE and ROBUST category of coys(10 each), it might be worthwhile to align ones portfolio along this 2 category @ a measure that fits ones personality and investment horizon.
...a 70-30% weighting on the former and latter respectively would be a great idea.
However, emphasis should be given to the best among them.

DISCLAIMER: NOT to be inferred to as any sought of recommendation. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

My advise: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

7 YHINGS YOU'LL MISS, IF YOU MISS HEAVEN ...

https://www.nairaland.com/3560501/holineness-righteousness-revival-messages-bible/28#87637008

onegentleguy:


My Pleasure bro !!

I will advise u to ignore those who've chosen the path of destructive criticism without recourse to good reason.

As investors we might sometimes see things differently, but any Jack should know that divergent views are needed to better interpret the dynamic nature of the market and seek reward in between.
That said, I am of the view that every statement should be objective, unbiased and backed with proof. ...and this is something u do. At least u are mostly factual with ur assessment of things.
...an investor only needs to permute from within all side of the divide, and seek for a convergence btw those necessary inputs and their investment personality.

I personally know that u mean well.
Pls keep up the good work !!

Cheers

Tvegas:


Except the OP has offended you in the past ,i dont see any reason for this response. We cant all share thesame view,there is beauty in having divergent views.

I can't agree more !!
...there was absolutely no need for the revert from @Biafran4life.
A diverse opinion should be devoid of destructive criticism.
I've always said that folks should concern themselves only with how to benefit from every play.(see post above; a revert to @ Oracle)

Regards

seyisanya:
God bless you, sir. Although, I'm not in support of your harsh response. However, it's so obvious Sir Chi is not in the market.

Will Japoul sell below N0.20?. If the response is no, then I'm certain fundamentally sound stocks like GTB and Zenith(etc) will not go below N0.20. If this is the case, I repeat, we d!e here!!!

love your spirit, jst keep buying we would be eating the robust dividends untill FPIs will come and have their kayas back

Feelers are that near term coy AGM' may no longer hold as scheduled, given the recent spate of orders from the FG and several state gov't to restrict movement and large gatherings as a precautionary measure against covid-19.
...infact the likelihood that most AGM' shall be postponed is now near 1.

Pls do well to be guided accordingly.

cc @ robobo

onegentleguy:


So I did a broad analysis(using several key variants) to look in on the possible Winners and Losers with the current events in play(covid-19 & oil price strain)... and I found out that the other antifragile coys(aside CAVERTON) are DANGOTE SUGAR, UACN, FLOURMILLS, MTN, PZ, GSK, NEIMETH, OKOMU OIL and PRESCO.(the 1st 6, particularly the 1st(DS) are superb)

While the likes of WAPCO, CAP, ZENITH, GTB, UBA, FCMB, FIDELITY, CADBURY, BETAGLASS and NB PLC are among coys I consider rubust(with BS/CFs that are strong enough to get through the current crisis).
Again I like the 1st 5, particularly the 1st 3.

For coys that would likely be losers(the worst hit), ALL OIL & GAS COYS(particularly TOTAL and OANDO), NACHO, SKYAVN, TRANSCORP HOTEL, TRANSCORP, VITAFOAM and UNILEVER. ...albeit with the least degree of impact on the last 2 coys.

The way to go;

Of the ANTIFRAGILE and ROBUST category of coys(10 each), it might be worthwhile to align ones portfolio along this 2 category @ a measure that fits ones personality and investment horizon.
...a 70-30% weighting on the former and latter respectively would be a great idea.
However, emphasis should be given to the best among them.

DISCLAIMER: NOT to be inferred to as any sought of recommendation. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

My advise: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

Sir OGG, this is well appreciated at this time when the entire internet/investment space is occupied with strong negativity and pessimism. This crisis will not lead to the end of humanity, we will all come out stronger!

DeRuggedProf:
A strange thought dropped in my heart of Zenith thinking of inorganic growth.
The pattern of trading on it for some weeks now is highly suspicious to me.......
It looks like a company whose insiders are hiding something.....

NB: Just a figment of my imagination.

November 2019

I would love to have a bit of your imagination bro. Please share.