saniby:


The same rhetorics. You have not explain how devaluation will ever help the consumption based Nigerian economy. How?? More costly machinery, more costly raw materials and labor agitation for more pay. Inflation will abound and the economy will slow down leading to more poverty and deprivation, which in turn fuels insecurity...this will be the end result.
I'm not expecting fixed value for the Naira for a 50 year period! No. what I expect is for the economy to have resilience to keep exchange variations within acceptable limits. There will always be transients with every natural system model. But you don't allow transients to define your rates, because they are temporary. Rather, you protect against them till you reach convergence.

What happened with the Naira in 2015 was due to some people in government that heeded to the advice of some of you (advocates of free floating the Naira), that was what saw the Naira crashing to about N500/$ in the parallel market. If not for the quick reversal and depending, it could've reached N1000/$. Why, because you cannot satisfy the round-trippers who are non productive lot surviving only on speculations. They are aide in Nigeria by some economists that want us to wear an overcoat in a hot sun.
Already some of them are speculating the Naira as over valued. The likes of Kingsley Moghalu, said it should have a value of about N400/$. Then the parallel market value should be how much,.....? Fill in the gap pls.

We have to operate within peculiarities of our environment, and not be relating our case to a case study of entirely different environment.
We've never had a single exhange rate in Nigeria, not for as long as I can remenber. There is always PARALLEL market rate. It is mainly these parallel operators that fuels speculations leading to uneven devaluations. Actions of such speculators in the climes you mentioned above could have earned them jail terms and wealth confiscation, for their role as economic saboteurs.
But here we allow people who cannot play by the rules, to trade in our currency at our detriment.
Can you buy Pound Sterling at rate other than the market rate in the UK just because you are desperate? Or can you sell it at any rate you wish?

WE MUST PROTECT OUR NAIRA AGAINST THESE UN-NATURAL FORCES.

You ended up saying NOTHING!

In 2015 the Buhari government destroyed the Naira by trying to defend it.

What was required was a free float, fiscal strategy on how to reduce imports and petroleum subsidy removal.

Foreign portfolio investors left in droves between 2015 and 2016 because they saw the need to protect their capital in USD terms. Nigeria's failure to manage the concerns of these investors led to capital flights. China for instance can adopt capital control measures because most investments in China are foreign direct investments, SOEs also play an important role in economic development. That's not the case in Nigeria.

PHijo:


You ended up saying NOTHING!

In 2015 the Buhari government destroyed the Naira by trying to defend it.

What was required was a free float, fiscal strategy on how to reduce imports and petroleum subsidy removal.

Foreign portfolio investors left in droves between 2015 and 2016 because they saw the need to protect their capital in USD terms. Nigeria's failure to manage the concerns of these investors led to capital flights. China for instance can adopt capital control measures because most investments in China are foreign direct investments, SOEs also play an important role in economic development. That's not the case in Nigeria.

You are saying "Buhari regime detoyed Naira by trying to depend it" as if that was not the defacto policy of the CBN. It was rather an attempt to float the Naira that actually eroded most of its value. Portfolio investment in converse
to FDI is being encouraged by people with your like-thinking (Naira should be floated, retain high MPR) who are more for the foreigners tgan for Nigerians, that churned out such monetary policies at the CBN (MPR, CRR etc). And I ask you to pls show me how could high interest rate will attract FDI.

If you cannot achieve some exchange stability, the best you can attract is portfolio investment. So it's a vicious cycle. FDI will flow with stable exchange rate.I don't know if you are awre what led to the exit of Etisalat from Nigeria. You people keep looking at the problem as if it has single variable, but the reality is it is multi-variable.

Floating a currency requires substantial local production, foreign market and huge foreign reserve to support undue distortions. None of these applies to Nigeria, why then are you hell bent on given adult prescription to a minor? The least you can is to allow him grow or change his prescription. It is that simple.

saniby:


You are saying "Buhari regime detoyed Naira by trying to depend it" as if that was not the defacto policy of the CBN. It was rather an attempt to float the Naira that actually eroded most of its value. Portfolio investment in converse
to FDI is being encouraged by people with your like-thinking (Naira should be floated, retain high MPR) who are more for the foreigners tgan for Nigerians, that churned out such monetary policies at the CBN (MPR, CRR etc). And I ask you to pls show me how could high interest rate will attract FDI.

If you cannot achieve some exchange stability, the best you can attract is portfolio investment. So it's a vicious cycle. FDI will flow with stable exchange rate.I don't know if you are awre what led to the exit of Etisalat from Nigeria. You people keep looking at the problem as if it has single variable, but the reality is it is multi-variable.

Floating a currency requires substantial local production, foreign market and huge foreign reserve to support undue distortions. None of these applies to Nigeria, why then are you hell bent on given adult prescription to a minor? The least you can is to allow him grow or change his prescription. It is that simple.

You quoted Kingsley Mohgalu. Go and watch his most recent videos!
Devaluation for Nigeria is unavoidable. It is either she takes charge of the process or waste her reserves and still end up having a devalued currency.

That investors prefer portfolio investment is primarily the fault of Buhari. Nobody wants to invest for the long haul in an economy basic human and corporate rights are not respected. A country judges are mistreated. All of these activities help shape the perception of prospective investors.

What is needed is simple, a plan on how the country can embark on import substitution. A start would be deregulation of the downstream sector. Since 2016/2017 the NNPC should have been privatised or restructured. The fact government still holds on to NNPC shows we are not ready to diversify. We could have boosted reserves through both actions. As things are now, we can't get the valuation we would have gotten in 2016 for NNPC in 2020. I am afraid it may even get worse in 2022.

The government should as much as she can, get her hands of business. That's the only way we can deal with many of these issues.

PHijo:


You quoted Kingsley Mohgalu. Go and watch his most recent videos!
Devaluation for Nigeria is unavoidable. It is either she takes charge of the process or waste her reserves and still end up having a devalued currency.

That investors prefer portfolio investment is primarily the fault of Buhari. Nobody wants to invest for the long haul in an economy basic human and corporate rights are not respected. A country judges are mistreated. All of these activities help shape the perception of prospective investors.

What is needed is simple, a plan on how the country can embark on import substitution. A start would be deregulation of the downstream sector. Since 2016/2017 the NNPC should have been privatised or restructured. The fact government still holds on to NNPC shows we are not ready to diversify. We could have boosted reserves through both actions. As things are now, we can't get the valuation we would have gotten in 2016 for NNPC in 2020. I am afraid it may even get worse in 2022.

The government should as much as she can, get her hands of business. That's the only way we can deal with many of these issues.

Now it is becoming clearer why you take your line of thought - Buhari is your problem, simple. It may be worthless venture trying to show you that no nation anywhere built vibrant economy by subjecting itself to foreign manipulations. Kingsley Moghalu (with all due respect to him) is a typical western trained economists who by virtue or providence like many of them, became CBN Deputy Governor. I wouldn't take his words as final when it comes to nation economy building. I advice you to listen to the remarks made by Dangote at the CBN event aftermath the oil price crash. Here https://nairametrics.com/2020/03/11/diversification-may-no-longer-be-possible-in-few-years-dangote/ you can pick some of the points. As you can see, it wasn't Buhari's making. He also spoke about the illusion of FDI you guys keep talking about. He said it will not happen. That it is we Nigerians that will build our economy. Aliko Dangote has undoubtedly proved he knows the art of nation economic building.
...But people with preset mindset are difficult or rather impossible to convince with facts. I will have to leave you with your thoughts ..till God know how long.

Corona Virus is real. At least you should believe that from me.

...More
https://www.channelstv.com/2020/03/11/we-need-to-take-diversification-of-nigerias-economy-more-seriously-dangote/amp/

https://businessday.ng/business-economy/article/dangote-advocates-made-in-nigeria-products-to-substitute-for-imported-goods/

..and judge for una self how this will happen in the mist of distortions like free floating of the Naira.

saniby:

Now it is becoming clearer why you take your line of thought - Buhari is your problem, simple. It may be worthless venture trying to show you that no nation anywhere built vibrant economy by subjecting itself to foreign manipulations. Kingsley Moghalu (with all due respect to him) is a typical western trained economists who by virtue or providence like many of them, became CBN Deputy Governor. I wouldn't take his words as final when it comes to nation economy building. I advice you to listen to the remarks made by Dangote at the CBN event aftermath the oil price crash. Here https://nairametrics.com/2020/03/11/diversification-may-no-longer-be-possible-in-few-years-dangote/ you can pick some of the points. As you can see, it wasn't Buhari's making. He also spoke about the illusion of FDI you guys keep talking about. He said it will not happen. That it is we Nigerians that will build our economy. Aliko Dangote has undoubtedly proved he knows the art of nation economic building.
...But people with preset mindset are difficult or rather impossible to convince with facts. I will have to leave you with your thoughts ..till God know how long.

Corona Virus is real. At least you should believe that from me.

It was Buhari's making. Dangote wouldn't say anything that could be viewed as anti-government because he knows how they will react.

In the last 5 years Buhari and his government has been at best reactive not proactive. The problem with many of you is that once people proffer solutions that will affect your special interest constituency you tag them as " Western ".

If you disagreed with Kingsley Mohgalau you should have left him out of the picture in the first place.

Under Buhari the highest growth rate has been 2 percent. Coupled with that, there is no time in his 5 years in office inflation has been below 9 percent.

It makes no sense!

500 billion Naira per annum is spent on 'social safety nets'.
Please correct me if I am wrong.

That is a wayward and wasteful way to destroy Nigeria's fragile economy. Oil exploration was done in the Chad basin. Who does that?

Is that how Buhari intends to diversify?

Buhari is the worst thing to behalf this country! Even worse than the Nigeria-Biafra war. More people would have probably died from hunger, terrorism and other avoidable causes of death.

Buhari may have good intentions but he lacks the intellect and fails to receive advice from those with the intellect required to weather the storm.

I can see, you are one of Buhari's blind worshippers. Initially I thought your stance was based on ignorance. You just confirmed it is being fueled by bias.

I'm not for blame games..
I'm a realist.

* Someone is talking about N500bn social investment, while as you can see below, the quantum of money squandered by previous administrations in the land with very little to show for it was enough to take us to the moon -
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/09/nigeria-earned-squandered-n77trn-oil-revenue-17-years/

* They will tell you government has no business in business, but when you spend earnings on infrastructure and social investment they turn around to blame you.

* Where is the private sector investment you people were talking about?

* Non cony local and international investors are having better times now, with even better prospects. Typical of ARLA FOODS -currently backward Integrating milk and diary production.

*We eat our locally grown Rice. If not for the effort of the government, I don't know where you will go to buy rice now with the Corona Virus?

*Ajaokuta resuscitation is ongoing -- that's the backbone of our development, yet they won't see.
*FG has secured funding for Mambilla Power plant
*Dangote fertilizer plant is about to commence production. Same with the refinery and petrochemical.
* Standard gauge Railway is ongoing, Abuja-kaduna, Lagos-Ibadan, Ajaokuta-Warri, if not for the Corona.,...

...why are some of you guys perpetual NAY SAYERS?