Unicef warns lockdown could kill more than Covid-19 as model predicts 1.2 million child deaths

'Indiscriminate lockdowns' are an ineffective way to control Covid and could contribute to a 45 per cent rise in child mortality'

The risk of children dying from malaria, pneumonia or diarrhoea in developing countries is spiralling due to the pandemic and “far outweighs any threat presented by the coronavirus”, Unicef has warned. 

In an exclusive interview Dr Stefan Peterson, chief of health at Unicef, cautioned that the blanket lockdowns imposed in many low and middle income are not an effective way to control Covid-19 and could have deadly repercussions. 

“Indiscriminate lockdown measures do not have an optimal effect on the virus,” he told The Telegraph. “If you’re asking families to stay at home in one room in a slum, without food or water, that won’t limit virus transmission.

“I’m concerned that lockdown measures have been copied between countries for lack of knowing what to do, rarely with any contextualisation for the local situation,” he said.

“One size fits no one. The objective is to slow the virus, not to lockdown people. “We need to lift our eyes and look at the total picture of public health.”

According to a stark report published in Lancet Global Health journal on Wednesday, almost 1.2 million children could die in the next six months due to the disruption to health services and food supplies caused by the coronavirus pandemic. 

The modelling, by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Unicef, found that child mortality rates could rise by as much as 45 per cent due to coronavirus-related disruptions, while maternal deaths could increase by almost 39 per cent. 

Dr Peterson said these figures were in part a reflection of stringent restrictions in much of the world that prevent people leaving their homes without documentation, preventing them from accessing essential health care services. 

In some countries the public are also avoiding hospitals and health centres for fear of picking up Covid-19, while services have also been diverted to focus on the pandemic. Vaccination campaigns against diseases including measles have also been disrupted - at least 117 million children worldwide are likely to miss out on routine immunisations this year. 

Dr Peterson warned that these trends have resulted in a reduction in the “effective utilisation of services” - a shift which, in some places, could be more dangerous than the virus itself.  And lockdowns have a heavy economic toll, which could trigger a rise in poverty and malnutrition.

The research looks at the consequences of disruption in 118 low and middle income countries, based on three scenarios. Even in the most optimistic case, where access to health services dropped by 15 per cent and child wasting rose by 10 per cent, an additional 253,500 children and 12,200 mothers died. 

But a worst-case scenario, where services are reduced by 45 per cent and the proportion of children who are wasting grows by 50 per cent, could result in 1.16 million additional child fatalities and 57,000 maternal deaths in just six months. 

The modelling projected that India would see both the largest number of additional deaths in children under five and maternal mortality, followed by Nigeria. Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania and Indonesia are also likely to be hit hard.

Such a situation has some precedent - research has shown that in 2014, during the Ebola outbreak in west Africa, more people died from indirect effects than the disease itself. But the scale of the pandemic means the consequences will be far greater. 

“Ever since we started counting child deaths and maternal mortality, those numbers have been going down and down and down,” said Dr Peterson. “And actually these times are unprecedented becausewe’re very likely to be looking at a scenario where figures are going up.

“That’s not from Covid - Covid is not a children's disease. Yes there are rare instances and we see them publicised across the media. But pneumonia, diarrhoea, measles, death in childbirth, these are the reasons we will see deaths rise,” he said. “These threats far outweighs any threat presented by the coronavirus in low and middle income countries.”

Dr Peterson urged countries not to impose draconian lockdowns, but to focus on identifying hotspots so that regional restrictions less damaging for public health can be introduced. 

He said he was concerned that the current battle against Covid-19 was turning into a “child’s rights crisis” and robbing a generation of their health, education and economic prospects.  

Launching the ‘Save Generation Covid’ campaign, Unicef’s largest appeal in its 73 year history, Sacha Deshmukh, executive director of Unicef UK, added: “This pandemic is having far-reaching consequences for all of us, but it is undoubtedly the biggest and most urgent global crisis children have faced since World War Two.

“We cannot allow almost a decade of progress on ending preventable child deaths to become undone on our watch.”

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/unicef-warns-lockdown-could-kill-covid-19-model-predicts-12/

Please help us tell them o, you can't fall sick in peace again, no hospital will attend to you. People are dying of disease that are more serious than novel corona virus but the count they are taking isn't making them concentrate on other sickness again.

each country needs to have a full policy document and piece of legislation on disaster management, this fire brigade approach is very stupid... we should set up a special fund in case things like this happens, because even after Corrona virus goes, Trump is hell bent on giving us another World War, and I doubt Trump vs China, Russia , Iran nuclear war wouldn't be more catastrophic than Corrona Virus, infact we should thank Corona virus for slowing down tensions between the western power bloc and the eastern power bloc

The sooner we start preparing for Lockdowns and War the better for us all, rather than making silly excuses of hunger , poverty and disease

Whats our excuse as Africans not to prepare, Isreal, Saudi and other middle eastern countries without good soil imported tonnes of fertile soil into their country and now produce more than enough agricultural product that they even export.

yet Africa with the resources are listening to insults from UNICEF saying blacks cant follow simple health guideline because they are lazy and hungry.. the sickening part is many people are already commending UNICEF for calling blacks hungry , lazy people who would prefer a plate of food to keeping healthy during dangerous pandemic

In 2020 white racist Unicef Directors still tells Africans , not to take simple health precaution because they are lazy , hungry poor and stupid, while the Unicef workers conducting this report had since travelled back through their various embassy in Nigeria to go to their own country to observe every health directives including lockdown

Buhari please end the lock down so that Kano and Jigawa people, lagos and ogun people can enjoy free movement and transmit whatever is killing them in hundreds across the entire country from SouthEast to SouthSouth and everywhere, Wike should also open the state borders and let Almajiri bring in food from Kano, last last na una without basic health insurance go suffer pass, Unicef people are already in their various countries 2nd week corona entered Nigeria, observing lockdown, Trump test all staffs and people close to him regularly, and once you are positive you can kiss the white house good bye, he isn't even travelling anymore for November election campaings


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UNICEF is on point. Copying other countries without considering our peculiarities is not a wise decision

I agree.. Lockdown is just postponing evil

Let's push this so that it can reach the necessary authorities clamouring for another lockdown

Ogun State take note

Hope Wike is taking notes

According to the UNICEF, government should only locate hotspots for lockdown and not just everywhere. Therefore, based on that, Nigeria should put the following places in total and indefinite lockdown: Lagos, Kano, Oyo, Ogun, Katsina, Borno, Osun, Kaduna, and FCT.

The SE governors must expedite action now, our northern and Western borders must be under strict supervision 24/7 now! States like Anambra, Enugu and Ebonyi must take extra precautionary measures to ensure that people are stopped from coming into the SE from these epicenters.

The SE must increase its testing capacity while closing our borders to ensure that our success so far is not frittered away.

Oga oooo.

Abeg dey should allow us go about our daily hustle. Anybody wey Corona kill e don kill

maggilove:
Please help us tell them o, you can't fall sick in peace again, no hospital will attend to you. People are dying of disease that are more serious than novel corona virus but the count they are taking isn't making them concentrate on other sickness again.

Worst part is they are now classifying everything as Covid-19 in a pathetic attempt to justify the lockdown.

Go to isolation centres and see how scanty the place is.. just go and see how the few people there (I mean very few) are having all sorts of symptoms such as vomiting, diarrhoea etc.. all of which are NOT coronavirus symptoms. Nigerian health practitioners are so heavily misinformed about what this 'virus' is and it's so funny to watch.

If you have typhoid it's now coro,
Malaria nko, it's coro too.

I just question why the mass fear mongering and manipulation of figures... This virus is not as deadly as it's been portrayed! It's nothing more than an overhyped strain of the Flu.

Been a while anyone heard of UNICEF..

If better nations could contract by 2.5% and 5.8% for Germany and Italy, while over 35m unemployed in the US due to the lockdown, what about nations that grew by 0.9% and already had above 25m unemployed in it's assumed better days

What would be their faith?..
Good points raised by UNICEF..

Confused set of organizations

WHO & UNICEF

Their mouth is just here and there.

Nothing really wise they are saying even 5yr old kid knows this already.

Lies. I dont believe UNICEF AND WHO, JUST AS I DONT TAKE LIE MOHAMMED AND OSHIOMOLE SERIOUSLY

only ignorance can leave many people dead THAN Covid/lockdown And Nigerian govt is guilty of these CRIME

useless leaders we have in this country.

Gbam! Thumb up UNICEF, this is what some of the clueless leader and the the selfish civil servants doesn't know, lock down, lockdown as if they will give people food or do enough testing.


Nigerians are so poor that we dont have the luxury of choosing heath over economy and vice versa. One withouth the other will eventually result in death.

Let's everyone take precautions and let all learn to live with the virus.

No lockdown, again.

finally, someone intelligent speaks.

Pls, they should ease interstate lockdown. I am not finding it funny again.

airminem:
Lies. I dont believe UNICEF AND WHO, JUST AS I DONT TAKE LIE MOHAMMED AND OSHIOMOLE SERIOUSLY

It is not about believing anybody, it is logic, use ur senses.

who doesnt know it can kill more than the virus

Well said.
So many countries rushed to copy the Western World without enought palliative for people.

I cant imagine a family of six staying in a one room apartment of 'face me I slap you' with everybody sharing one Shalanga Toilet

Hunger kills faster than lockdown

It Is Well

Our politicians don't know that.

Very true! But unfortunately we have very daft and clueless leaders

It's a known fact

Anti lockdown peoples, food don done o.