IYGEAL:
UACN in half-hearted full offer

Peter and Co...taking off to lock profit

DeRuggedProf:
GUINNESS NIGERIA PLC

Poor operating performance; downgrade to Sell

In its recently released 9M 2020 results, Guinness Nigeria (Guinness) reported a 5.3% y/y decline in Revenue to N96.0bn from N101.4bn in 9M 2019. On q/q basis, Revenue d eclined 33.2% to N27.7bn in Q3 2020 (Jan - Mar 2020) from N41.4bn in Q2 2020. Pressured by higher excise as well as closure of on-trade channels in the final week of the quarter, the compans performance in Q3 2020 (historically one of the best quarters for Guinness) was weak with Q3 2020 Revenue and Net Income declining 17.6% and 97.2% respectively when compared with Q3 2019.

We cut our Revenue forecast for the rest of the year as on-trade channels remained shut for the first 5 weeks of Q4 2020 (Apr - Jun 2020) while ceremonial activities remain banned in many states in the country. Furthermore, while we expect lower barley price would provide some support to Gross Profit, we expect Opex and Finance cost to remain significant pressure points in Q4. We forecast a loss in the final quarter of the year which would pressure FY 2020e Net Income lower.

We cut our target price for Guinness Nigeria to N15.08/s from N32.12/s previousl y which implies a 21.5% downside to Wednesdays closing price of N19.20/s. Thus, we downgrade our recommendation to a SELL from HOLD. We have revised down our profit lines steeply and lower pricing multiples in our relative valuation models given the companys poor operating performance relative to peers. We arrive at our target price using a combination of the single stage FCFF model and Relative valuation in the ratio 60:40 with the greater weighting on the FCFF methodology.

COPIED/CSL.

And the market is responding accordingly.

stcool:


Peter and Co...taking off to lock profit

A bird in the hand, etc

SOME BENEFITS OF BUYING UACN NOW.

Assuming one buys 1million shares of UACN @ N9, the total cost will be N9,000,000 + N180,000 (max. Comm.) = N9,180,000.

After the Unbundling of UPDC & UPDC REIT, the person will have
6,000,000 shares of UPDC x N0.80 = 4,800,000
500,000 shares of UPDC REIT x N3.5 = 1,750,000
1,000,000 shares of UACN X N9 = N9,000,000

When you add them together = N15,550,000.

Just from the unbundling alone I did not add the dividend that will come from UACN, the final and the interim dividend that is yet to be declared by UPDC REIT. Neither did I put into consideration the Capital Appreciations that will follow UACN & UPDC REIT before and after the unbundling.

All these benefits just within the next 4 months.

A Stitching Time Saves Nine

leo1234:


Go and bail out TraderR.

This bad mouth, l wan laught taya.

IYGEAL:
UACN in half-hearted full offer

Una no go kill me for here

Krisuba:



3rd June

ok thanks

stcool:


Peter and Co...taking off to lock profit

My dear IF YOU SELL UACN NOW YOU WILL REGRET IT SOON.

Guinness is being flogged like caught petty thief

DeRuggedProf:


Una no go kill me for here

DeRuggedProf:
GUINNESS NIGERIA PLC

Poor operating performance; downgrade to Sell

In its recently released 9M 2020 results, Guinness Nigeria (Guinness) reported a 5.3% y/y decline in Revenue to N96.0bn from N101.4bn in 9M 2019. On q/q basis, Revenue d eclined 33.2% to N27.7bn in Q3 2020 (Jan - Mar 2020) from N41.4bn in Q2 2020. Pressured by higher excise as well as closure of on-trade channels in the final week of the quarter, the compans performance in Q3 2020 (historically one of the best quarters for Guinness) was weak with Q3 2020 Revenue and Net Income declining 17.6% and 97.2% respectively when compared with Q3 2019.

We cut our Revenue forecast for the rest of the year as on-trade channels remained shut for the first 5 weeks of Q4 2020 (Apr - Jun 2020) while ceremonial activities remain banned in many states in the country. Furthermore, while we expect lower barley price would provide some support to Gross Profit, we expect Opex and Finance cost to remain significant pressure points in Q4. We forecast a loss in the final quarter of the year which would pressure FY 2020e Net Income lower.

We cut our target price for Guinness Nigeria to N15.08/s from N32.12/s previousl y which implies a 21.5% downside to Wednesdays closing price of N19.20/s. Thus, we downgrade our recommendation to a SELL from HOLD. We have revised down our profit lines steeply and lower pricing multiples in our relative valuation models given the companys poor operating performance relative to peers. We arrive at our target price using a combination of the single stage FCFF model and Relative valuation in the ratio 60:40 with the greater weighting on the FCFF methodology.

COPIED/CSL.

Many are now trapped... We truly have monkey traders here

stcool:


Peter and Co...taking off to lock profit

IF YOU HAPPEN TO SEE YOU UACN CHEEP MY OPINION IS JION ME IN BUYING MORE.

IYGEAL:
Guinness is being flogged like caught petty thief

It's not yet the season for breweries... When it's season it will join the train

Uchetoba:
IF YOU HAPPEN TO SEE YOU UACN CHEEP MY OPINION IS JION ME IN BUYING MORE.

Monkey trader spotted

megawealth01:
Many are now trapped... We truly have monkey traders here

No one was privy to the recently released result. If they were, how come money bags were mopping up at klm 20?

Well, except if they were, in which case they are.

megawealth01:
It's not yet the season for breweries... When it's season it will join the train

NB is doing wonders.
Salvation is personal

Even 11 Plc is on full offer. Are they not delisting again?

I'm this particular bus o.

As Onifa would say, na on top person money o

IYGEAL:


No one was privy to the recently released result. If they were, how come money bags were mopping up at klm 20?

Well, except if they were, in which case they are.

Did Unilever release any great result?

Anyone Planning to Trade in UACN because of the sweet talks on this thread should be very careful. The Stock is currently on full offer with zero bid and that is bizarre. Of what use is a stock that can fetch you 1000% but can also become illiquid despite the promises of huge returns coming soon? Apart from UPDCREIT in that group, UACN and UPDC are far from making tangible profit to sustain current prices. Never trade on hope, trade with fact and you wont cry.

It is not everything said by Oracle I follow but I also use my wisdom to pick the key info in his posts.oracle and oyinbo people have something in common and I guess he is being paid for his services.oracle never said anything that is not genuine but be careful not to be a prey to his traps.

I am still 100% in cash now.still watching the next phase of market.10 to 20% is still my new entry target.

DeRuggedProf:


Did Unilever release any great result?

never been interested in that one

stcool:


Peter and Co...taking off to lock profit

That offer na scam o, it will still close on #9 like yesterday. No 100k deal yet.

Uchetoba:
SOME BENEFITS OF BUYING UACN NOW.

Assuming one buys 1million shares of UACN @ N9, the total cost will be N9,000,000 + N180,000 (max. Comm.) = N9,180,000.

After the Unbundling of UPDC & UPDC REIT, the person will have
6,000,000 shares of UPDC x N0.80 = 4,800,000
500,000 shares of UPDC REIT x N3.5 = 1,750,000
1,000,000 shares of UACN X N9 = N9,000,000

When you add them together = N15,550,000.

Just from the unbundling alone I did not add the dividend that will come from UACN, the final and the interim dividend that is yet to be declared by UPDC REIT. Neither did I put into consideration the Capital Appreciations that will follow UACN & UPDC REIT before and after the unbundling.

All these benefits just within the next 4 months.

A Stitching Time Saves Nine

When chief Agba saw all the benefits of buying UACN, after I told him last year that the debts which UPDC owe UACN will be converted to UPDC right. Agbe bought UACN up to 100% of his portfolio. And When UACN & UPDC delayed the unbundling, he deliberately fogort his login detait and go to watch TV. That is because he understood very well that the benefits are huge.

meine:
Anyone Planning to Trade in UACN because of the sweet talks on this thread should be very careful. The Stock is currently on full offer with zero bid and that is bizarre. Of what use is a stock that can fetch you 1000% but can also become illiquid despite the promises of huge returns coming soon? Apart from UPDCREIT in that group, UACN and UPDC are far from making tangible profit to sustain current prices. Never trade on hope, trade with fact and you wont cry.

There is always market sentiment driving the bourse at some points. It's not science. Not saying the claims are to be 100% believed, but they may be correct while the market responds however it deems fit at one point or the other.

UACN may still close at 9 naira today. Offers are being strategically placed.

Uchetoba:
When chief Agba saw all the benefits of buying UACN, after I told him last year that the debts which UPDC owe UACN will be converted to UPDC right. Agbe bought UACN up to 100% of his portfolio. And When UACN & UPDC delayed the unbundling, he deliberately fogort his login detait and go to watch TV. That is because he understood very well that the benefits are huge.

Sir, why are you waxing lyrical about this stock though?

IYGEAL:


Sir, why are you waxing lyrical about this stock though?

With all the posts written in block letters, and continued unnecessary "pushing", those saying you might be monkey-hunting apparently do have a point.

billtommy:


Sir OGG, what do you think about the below stocks
at present prices?
Unilever
NEIMETH
Dangsug
MAY&BAKER
Flour mill.

Where were u when these coys were recommended here.
With the 1st(UNILEVER), I highlighted that FUNDAMENTALS is unhealthy(the red flags in their financial print) but TECHNICALS points to a buy @ any price below N11.
Stock is already up by near 60%.
See link; https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5592#88765140
@ mcy56 also mentioned the coy here then.

On NEIMETH, I called for a buy @ 38k. Some persons disputed it, but dude has delivered over 170% return and still counting.
See link; https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5709#90045607

On DANGOTE SUGAR, I gave a buy recommendation even after they released a not-so-good Q3 financial print. At the time, the coy was hovering btw N8.5-N9. Coy has already delivered btw 54-81% at different times.
See link; https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/4964#83652619

On MAY&BAKER, my buy call came in together with NEIMETH. At the time, M&B was selling for below N1.90.
In fact, I later mentioned that folks should as a matter of urgency ACCUMULATE all HEALTHCARE coys in late Feb, and followed it up with an article. M&B has returned near 78%.
See link; https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5392#87339029

On FLOURMILLS, my take was that folks should align with the coy when it was selling for N13+.
See link; https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5144#85645534

So my dear, I can NOT advise u on these coys now. For though u might still be able to book some returns if u align now, it would've been better if u had heed to the calls then.
It's always great when u are early to the party.
That way, u'll be served with enough fresh coconut rice plus chicken, hot Nkwobi and chill non-acoholic wine. ...otherwise, u may end up taking just cold jollof rice without meat and hot coke when ur late.
Even the coke will not be full. It will be given u in a small disposable cup.

Moral: Learn to be quick to act once u can spot VALUE and have done ur homework well !!
Like I always tell folks;
"In finding the right equilibrium between RISK and REWARD(MoS peg with risk-return in view), the PRICE u pay for an asset is EVERYTHING !!"
Remember: Price is what u pay... but VALUE is what u get !!

stcool:
FCMB hit N2.00 is there something we don't know?

FCMB...FIDELTY will do magic just saying

Are we back to the days of 3 Musketeers now that Diamond is gone

If fcmb should hit #2.00 today,I must be one of those to buy at 1.83/85/87.

Na so we see am o

locodemy:
It is not everything said by Oracle I follow but I also use my wisdom to pick the key info in his posts.oracle and oyinbo people have something in common and I guess he is being paid for his services.oracle never said anything that is not genuine but be careful not to be a prey to his traps.

I am still 100% in cash now.still watching the next phase of market.10 to 20% is still my new entry target.

No one on this forum sees Sir Oracle in this light here. I don't think he's that kind of guy.

All those doing pm or dm,pls kindly watch my posts here and pick one or two things.That should be enough.

locodemy:
It is not everything said by Oracle I follow but I also use my wisdom to pick the key info in his posts.oracle and oyinbo people have something in common and I guess he is being paid for his services.oracle never said anything that is not genuine but be careful not to be a prey to his traps.

I am still 100% in cash now.still watching the next phase of market.10 to 20% is still my new entry target.

Oga loco, please you can still post your opinions without attacking other people's motives. While no one is right 100 percent of the time, we know those who are right most of the time and Oga oracle is one of them.

meine:
Anyone Planning to Trade in UACN because of the sweet talks on this thread should be very careful. The Stock is currently on full offer with zero bid and that is bizarre. Of what use is a stock that can fetch you 1000% but can also become illiquid despite the promises of huge returns coming soon? Apart from UPDCREIT in that group, UACN and UPDC are far from making tangible profit to sustain current prices. Never trade on hope, trade with fact and you wont cry.

Bitter TRUTH... You've said it all