BullBearMkt:

Wao! 10 Years of investment added just only 238k+! However, to determine if this is a good investment or not, we actually need to benchmark it with the ASI and inflation. Does it worth the risk? Uhhmmm...

A smart investor will not hold that long. A smart investor will research the trends, news, fundamentals, and always be in sync with the market. When you are in sync with the market, you will just be marking money as if you are making ogwu ego!

BullBearMkt:

Wao! 10 Years of investment added just only 238k+! However, to determine if this is a good investment or not, we actually need to benchmark it with the ASI and inflation. Does it worth the risk? Uhhmmm...

Why do you need to benchmark to inflation?

Deadlytruth:

Couldn't have been better said. This market is unpredictable so it is better one plays it by the moment.

A school of thought will ask you, what moment?

Market is very predictable. Market are made up of humans. Now we are in machine age where machines trade. Machines are even the most easily predictable

RabbiDoracle:


A smart investor will not hold that long. A smart investor will research the trends, news, fundamentals, and always be in sync with the market. When you are in sync with the market, you will just be marking money as if you are making ogwu ego!

Now that we have almost everything needed to make wise investment decisions at the tip of our fingers, we should be smarter now. To be honest, what Dr shown used to be the traditional way of investment those days! Buy & Keep.

RabbiDoracle:


Why do you need to benchmark to inflation?

Value of the money say in 2010 still the same or lower/higher in 2020!

BullBearMkt:

Now that we have almost everything needed to make wise investment decisions at the tip of our fingers, we should be smarter now. To be honest, what Dr shown used to be the traditional way of investment those days! Buy & Keep.

Yes, it was the traditional way of investing.

However smart investors still depend on dividends but they also monitor other parameters locally and globally that can cause a run on other exchanges which in turn will affect their investment decisions.

And most importantly, when you have achieved this, you will be able to control greed and fear.

BullBearMkt:

Value of the money say in 2010 still the same or lower/higher in 2020!

I agree with you if you in live in Nigeria and invest naira and spend naira.

Remember that some people don't live in Nigeria. Some live in Japan for example and invest in Nigeria. In Japan, inflation had been jumping from negative to around +1% for years.

The only thing such an investor will be concerned about is devaluation of naira. Nothing concern am with inflation in naira because he is not spending whatever he gets there in Nigeria.

Just my thought.

DrAwo:
If you bought Zenith bank on 01/01/2010 using N100,000 and reinvested all dividends received to buy more zenith bank shares on 01/04 each year, how much would your investment be worth as at 01/04/2020?

Can you share the analysis you did for the public offer bought in 2005

emmanuelewumi:

Can you share the analysis you did for the public offer bought in 2005

Apologies for replying late...

In this model, we assume one buys 1million units of Zenith bank during their IPO in 2004 at N10.90.

All dividends are reinvested on 01/04 to buy zenith bank shares. I however could not get historic prices between 2005 - 2008. Hence we assume that it is bought at N20/share for those years (which is quite generous)...

talk2me2:
this makes the wohle effort look like a waste of time. N100,000 in 2010 was more valuable than N338,354 today.

What will you say about those who bought land banana Island in 2010 at N800 million,, who are currently looking for buyer for the same land at N600 million in 2020.


That same N800 invested in Zenith bank shares and dividends reinvested would have grown to N2.67 billion in 2020

RabbiDoracle:


I agree with you if you in live in Nigeria and invest naira and spend naira.

Remember that some people don't live in Nigeria. Some live in Japan for example and invest in Nigeria. In Japan, inflation had been jumping from negative to around +1% for years.

The only thing such an investor will be concerned about is devaluation of naira. Nothing concern am with inflation in naira because he is not spending whatever he gets there in Nigeria.

Just my thought.

Inflation affects the exchange rate bro

emmanuelewumi:



What will you say about those who bought land banana Island in 2010 at N800 million,, who are currently looking for buyer for the same land at N600 million in 2020.


That same N800 invested in Zenith bank shares and dividends reinvested would have grown to N2.67 billion in 2020

The stock market is not a funny place, I was thinking about my own investment and if only I put my 1m in a business that generates 12-15% monthly, in two years I would have gotten investors I will sell my shares at a higher price and expand. looking at mtn financials, started business with only 407m, only the first investors enjoyed, now us is at the mercy of the market

Bjrokenhear003:


The stock market is not a funny place, I was thinking about my own investment and if only I put my 1m in a business that generates 12-15% monthly, in two years I would have gotten investors I will sell my shares at a higher price and expand. looking at mtn financials, started business with only 407m, only the first investors enjoyed

Pioneer Investors who invested N1 million about 20 years ago are earning dividends of about N40 million.

MTN was not ready to be listed, those of us who bought on the floor bought at a premium.

Just as we have some big guys who currently have shares in Dangote Refinery, by the time the company will be listed we will be buying at a premium

emmanuelewumi:



Pioneer Investors who invested N1 million about 20 years ago are earning dividends of about N40 million.

MTN was not ready to be listed, those of us who bought on the floor bought at a premium.

Just as we have some big guys who currently have shares in Dangote Refinery, by the time the company will be listed we will be buying at a premium

And that’s where it all falls down to, where can we see all this company that does private placement
I use Afri invest stock broking firm and no one offers me private placement to be pioneer investors on them platforms, Any other platforms that offers to private investors

Bjrokenhear003:


The stock market is not a funny place, I was thinking about my own investment and if only I put my 1m in a business that generates 12-15% monthly, in two years I would have gotten investors I will sell my shares at a higher price and expand. looking at mtn financials, started business with only 407m, only the first investors enjoyed, now us is at the mercy of the market

lol!!!

Bjrokenhear003:


And that’s where it all falls down to, where can we see all this company that does private placement
I use Afri invest stock broking firm and no one offers me private placement to be pioneer investors on them platforms, Any other platforms that offers to private investors

BGL was a major financial advisor to MTN when they came to Nigeria, the major pioneer Investors were bankers, Investment banking firms and corporate lawyers. You would have been invited if you were found worthy.

MTN had another private placement in 2006, I think the minimum Investment was $1 million. Afrinvest played a major role in the second private placement

BullBearMkt:

lol!!!

I tell u my brother, it’s crazy.. it’s like a full time job, I work night shifts and still have to calculate at night and look at graph and make estimates which are likely to be wrong sometimes

THE NSE IS CRAZY AND ALL THE FIRMS HAVE BEEN GOING DOWNWARDS SINCE COMING ON THE STOCKMARKET.

emmanuelewumi:



BGL was a major financial advisor to MTN when they came to Nigeria, the major pioneer Investors were bankers, Investment banking firms and corporate lawyers. You would have been invited if you were found worthy.

MTN had another private placement in 2006, I think the minimum Investment was $1 million. Afrinvest played a major role in the second private placement

That’s a lot of capital there $1 million. Crazy
1 million dollars at the current fx is close to their equity start up capital

Is Market Sentiment Telling Us Something Important!
Market Breadth is one of the indicators used to gauge the market. To know when to buy (for medium to long term) market breadth is used by professionals to determine if we are close to the "Bottom" or "Top" or Reversal Points.

Monitoring NSE ASI with NSE30 market breadth data, it is showing the possibility that we are closer to a reversal level than 2 - 3 weeks ago. Similar response obtained in March/April during the COVID-19 palaver, where we see the Oscillator diverging as NSE30 price continue to decline until the more long term indicator (Summation Index - Black) crossover the Pink MA & from there price continue to rally until June.

Some sectors (Banking and industrial) are not looking badly. Also are the Agricultural & HealthCare Industries. Stocks there need to be scanned and keyed into at these low prices...

I discuss this and many more in my NSE weekly review on "What The Chart Says" - Enjoy it!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WS7ZreUaxHU

Wishing you all Successful Trading Week Ahead

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Bjrokenhear003:


That’s a lot of capital there $1 million. Crazy
1 million dollars at the current fx is close to their equity start up capital

Afrinvest worked out something for Investors with $100,000

emmanuelewumi:



Afrinvest worked out something for Investors with $100,000

Sir, was this advertised?

Must have missed something.

ukay2:


Sir, was this advertised?

Must have missed something.

Private placements are not supposed to be advertised

emmanuelewumi:



Private placements are not supposed to be advertised

Ok...

Thanks

CashDiMkpa:


This is entirely up to you and how you want to play in the market.

Before you buy a stock you must have done your valuation to know if its over priced at current price level. Assume you valued "Stock A" at N5 in January 2020 but it was trading at N8 and you considered that price too high and decide to wait. Eventually, in March 2020 the market prices it at N3.50 and to you the fundamental are still the same. You buy at N3.50 and suddenly in May 2020 the market decides that the price is now N6.00. You look at the fundamentals again and its still okay and your valuation sheet shows the stock should still not be worth more than N5.00.

What will you do?

Book my profit and wait for it jeje

ukay2:


Sir, was this advertised?

Must have missed something.

It was well discussed on this thread then!

Bjrokenhear003:


And that’s where it all falls down to, where can we see all this company that does private placement
I use Afri invest stock broking firm and no one offers me private placement to be pioneer investors on them platforms, Any other platforms that offers to private investors

Those who have stayed long enough in NSE know that for every successful private placement, there are twenty that have failed.

CashDiMkpa:


That's why holding any stock for ever mindlessly does not make sense. Once the market prices your stock higher than your valuation, why hold on to it? You can sell and buy back later.

Imagine those that sold Zenith at close to N40/share in early 2018 and buying back now. Compare them to those taking N2.50k profit every year since then. Who is better off?

Man your on point.
I reached this conclusion a long time ago. Several years ago, flourmill was ranging 80-100 naira per share, compare that with the current price of 17 naira. Long term investment in NSE is bad investment. Now in NSE, my long term investment is 8 - 12 months, midterm is 2 - 4 months and short term is 1 day - 30 days. Once set price target is met, i sell and wait for another opportunity.

bigjay01:


It was well discussed on this thread then!

Thank you Bigjay....

Might have missed the discussion

emmanuelewumi:



What will you say about those who bought land banana Island in 2010 at N800 million,, who are currently looking for buyer for the same land at N600 million in 2020.


That same N800 invested in Zenith bank shares and dividends reinvested would have grown to N2.67 billion in 2020[b][/b]

This is with the benefit of hindsight.

Harvestock01:


Those who have stayed long enough in NSE know that for every successful private placement, there are twenty that have failed.

Gbam! A few of us still have the battle scars from the fight for CHAMS PP in 2007/8. How far with CHAMS today?

bigjay01:


Gbam! A few of us still have the battle scars from the fight for CHAMS PP 2007/8. How far with CHAMS today?

Hmmmmm

I recommend the book "Rule 1" by Phil Town...

It covers in details the subjects of what to buy, when to buy, when to sell etc...

Thank me later...