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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by leo1234(m): 9:24am On Jul 21, 2020 |
stcool: Like which one? Thread with caution. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 9:30am On Jul 21, 2020 |
RabbiDoracle:I only say Baba, na you say gida. My hand no dey oh. No be from my mouth them hear UACN 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 9:47am On Jul 21, 2020 |
RabbiDoracle: In Nigeria, most of the listed FMCG companies will most likely be impacted negatively. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 10:14am On Jul 21, 2020 |
onegentleguy: zimams: Frankly, the financial print from Unilever was totally expected !! ...the signs were there from Q3, 2019. I mentioned it here back then.(see post above) Highlights at the time; • 1st was the border closure which pressured export. • Then there was the matter of decreased sales in goods at the back of a competitive enviroment(from decelerating purchasing power) given the chase for lower price points/alternatives from consumers on the local front. ...the result? • A huge backlog of non-performing receivables. ...particularly in the food and H&PC segments of business. • There was need to curb it down to avoid a strain in WC(working capital) that could potentially create a funding mismatch with time. • Management decided it was best to cut off all their distributor lines and engage the service of a sole distributor to exclusively market their product. ...this though, would come at a cost. The challenge... That decision to disengage all distributor line came in Q3, 2019 and was due to kick-start in Q4. Fast-forward to the covid-19 era and u do not need a soothsayer to tell u that their distribution chain would likely be stiffled as the pandemic brought with it, severe supply disruptions. ...now for a company that was already going through a phase of lower demand(decreased sales), it was only going to be a matter of time before that strain(both from the supply and demand side of the curve) results in a loss in market share. This is why u see decelerating gross margin amid a continuously pressured(lower) inventory turnover.(the last 3 quarters in view) My view... I think it would've been better to go the PZ route of allowing for a slightly added duration in repayment plan or put a modality in place to improve on receivables, instead of cutting off all distribution lines.(well, no one saw covid-19 coming) Coys in the FMCGs are well positioned to benefit from the curent worries(most are anti-fragile) but Unilever already had an issue before now !! ...as a result, they were'n't able to tap into the benefit from the corona-induced environment. The FPs of PZ, UACN and FLOURMILLS will likely witness an improvement from previous quarter.(slight for PZ though) PZ was also struggling before now but their next financials should come in better than previous print. I highlighted some of these worries in Unilever here back then. ...though I also mentioned that those keying in should do so for trading and nothing more. At the time, TA signalled a buy @ N10+... before it rose to over N16 then. refer to link; https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5592#88765140 Selah 4 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by OBAGADAFFI: 10:24am On Jul 21, 2020 |
GSK round two movement just stated. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by handsomebolanle: 10:33am On Jul 21, 2020 |
RabbiDoracle:Boss ...I wonder too oo... The matter tire me.... |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by handsomebolanle: 10:37am On Jul 21, 2020 |
onegentleguy: Thanks |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BullBearMkt(m): 10:50am On Jul 21, 2020 |
onegentleguy:...when looking for excellent fundamental analysis on NSE stocks, posts from @onegentleguy and some wonderful minds on this forum are what I scan through, however, at times, some of these posts are contrarian. When there is a contrast between FA & TA, in my view TA (short term) always win. The best analysis scenario is achieve when FA is in agreement with TA. Looking back to Unilever in April, TA signaled BUY (as well pointed out by @onegentleguy when the "books" are negative for the stocks & we can see some good profits recorded between N10.50 to say N17! Once again this is for "short-term" Now that Unilever results are out and not encouraging to the FA, I am also seeing some contradiction to what the "book" and the chart are saying. If -ve sentiment could possibly drag the stock down to between 11-12 & price actions shows a BUY, that will be a valid BUY Signal for another short-term trade. 4 Likes 1 Share
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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Monday696: 10:51am On Jul 21, 2020 |
Tony Elumelu purchased about 63m units of UBA shares @6.20. Is this a sign of good result waiting to be released? |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 10:54am On Jul 21, 2020 |
..... |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 11:03am On Jul 21, 2020 |
..... |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 11:13am On Jul 21, 2020 |
Battle to hold Fbnh support at N5 continues...... |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 11:14am On Jul 21, 2020 |
phoinix:Lol. Your eyes go soon clear. 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by leo1234(m): 11:24am On Jul 21, 2020 |
Mcy56: leo1234: I am already there waiting for exit. 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by zimams: 11:31am On Jul 21, 2020 |
Thanks for providing insight @onegentleguy. This one is a long game... I have some confusion around 'border closure and it's real impact'. Does it impact legal channels for export? while it stops illegal entry of goods that compete with locally produced alternatives, does it impact volume export of locally produced goods in the opposite direction (out)? onegentleguy: |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 12:08pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
E Ku market o. See silence! Let me break it small: Jaiz bank is paying 3kobo for 2019 FYE.....the first dividend in the history of the bank. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Profmaojo: 12:09pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
chunkuli:no sir |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 12:11pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
Alhaji's guys are at it again: cross deals ongoing with dangcem losing N4...... Massive cross deals ongoing in NB......up with N1 now......something must be brewing here.....and is not only Star larger beer....... Caveat: Not any form of buy/sell advice pls. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 12:13pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
zimams: It also Impacts on COST. Although the border closure mainly impacts Import, Export will also come at a higher cost(COSG) as it means that they'll likely spend a little more pushing for sales. ...the result is a pressure in GROSS MARGIN and eventual decline in NPM. I do understand the reason for ur question though. ...guess the motive behind it is that FCMGs are infact, suppose to benefit from the border closure. There's a 2-way fold to that though; 1) Where their revenue margin(greater sales in view) tilts between exports and local sales. 2) To what extent/degree they rely on import of raw materials.(Import substitution/backward integration in view) Coys that will be highly favoured by the border closure are those those whose revenue build-up relies far more on local sales than export with point No 1... and those who rely less on import of raw materials for their goods with point No 2. Where the 2 criterias are met, u should expect nothing short of an acceleration in NPM.(the 1st entails higher gross margin while the 2nd betters EBIT/operating margin) This is why coys like DANGOTE SUGAR, OKOMU OIL and FMCGs like UACN and FLOURMILL will be better positioned than the likes of UNILEVER, CADBURY and PZ. The 1st 2(DS and OKOMU are in line for bigger gains)... while UACN and FLOURMILLS are the best placed in FMCGs. Beyond the matter of border closure, UNILEVER had other issues. ...signs to their worries were there before then. It is well. 2 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by leo1234(m): 12:13pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
Mcy56: Just 3 Kobo The fair price should be 30 kobo. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 12:17pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
leo1234:Dem no try? How much did your sterling pay and is selling above N1? 2 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 12:19pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
I want to blv that whosoever Jijo Unilever must have get out before now........ Let's wait for another Jijo time again, its coming down, it will got to our safe junction again........ ....... apologies to the long termers, nothing do you....... 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ebuka1997: 12:28pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
Mcy56: I thought Unilever go day full offer now |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ebuka1997: 12:31pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
Sellers still setting high price for Unilever lol, I wait at 8 junction |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 12:34pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
ebuka1997:Not on full offer my bros, the loss has been somehow priced in. Only that it would have gone up if the result had been positive. Jijoist will wait at circa 9 or 10 to pick some units......... |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 12:38pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
ebuka1997: Impact may have been priced into the equity peg for the most part. ...I don't see it dropping that low. But then again, everything is often possible in the stock market. Selah 2 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ebuka1997: 12:48pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
onegentleguy: Lol I’m aware, trying to wake up the Unilever long termers I’ll watch it for a rebound later this week but the question is how soon are they expected to recover considering this challenge of receivables |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ebuka1997: 12:50pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
Mcy56: Yeah I’m seeing some bids at 11.7, 10 is my bus stop tho |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by leo1234(m): 12:52pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
Mcy56: Next time if you want to give example, use banks like GTB, UBA and zenith. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 1:08pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
leo1234: Even your humble self will stone me if I make such comparison. Meanwhile, Zee support broken at 15.60...........now 15.50...... |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Ibrahim505(m): 1:34pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
Vitafoam currently on hot demand! 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by DexterousOne(m): 1:52pm On Jul 21, 2020 |
Ibrahim505: That's interesting |
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