ositadima1:
Ok, here is my attempt at applying the Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method to Guiness Nigeria PLC.

I pulled their annual reports from 2010 to 2019 and this is what i saw:

Sales (revenue): YoY growth for the last 9 years: 2.07% rate per period of annuity.
EPS: YoY growth for the last 9 years: -13.59% rate per period of annuity
Equity: YoY growth for the last 9 years: 11.22% rate per period of annuity
Free Cash Flow: YoY growth for the last 9 years: -19.98% rate per period of annuity

***Mr Phil Town wouldn't touch this stock with a long stick at this junction.***

Next, Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation

1.) Assuming 5% growth and 15% (I used 15 to sufficiently cover MoS, marging of safety) YoY desired rate of return projected for the next 10 years, then buy price would be pegged at not more than 14.49 per share.

2.) Assuming 11.22% growth (Equity did 11.22% YoY in the last 9 years) and 15% YoY desired rate of return projected for the next 10 years, then buy price would be pegged at not more than 21.54 per share.

There is also another way of making the valuation as detailed in Rule One Investing book, i will try that later.

PETERiCHY:


If you put such EFFORT in doing DANGCEM VALUATION you will DISCOVER that it doesn't WORTH N50.

In 2007 DANGOTE bought BENUE CEMENT that was trading at N4 did his ABRACADABRA, renamed it DANGOTE CEMENT and enlisted @ N135 per share.

10years down the lane DANGCEM is still trading at circa N135 couple with countless DEVALUATIONS that has taken place within that period.

CAN'T you SEE that ALHAJI is playing LONG TENNIS with his SHARESHOLDERS DESTINY


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

BullBearMkt:

...If I may contribute to your question, I would say most stocks move up as the index is going up & most stocks also go down as the index goes down. However, some stocks moves faster based on their perceived fundamentals and what is called beta. Like GTB, it has a beta of 1.1420, which means if the market (index) moves either way, GTB has the tendency to move same direction as the market by x1.1420. While UBA with beta of 1.3485 will move faster by x1.3485. And on the other hand a stock like Nestle with beta of 0.9 will move slower than the market.

PETERiCHY:


If you put such EFFORT in doing DANGCEM VALUATION you will DISCOVER that it doesn't WORTH N50.

In 2007 DANGOTE bought BENUE CEMENT that was trading at N4 did his ABRACADABRA, renamed it DANGOTE CEMENT and enlisted @ N135 per share.

10years down the lane DANGCEM is still trading at circa N135 couple with countless DEVALUATIONS that has taken place within that period.

CAN'T you SEE that ALHAJI is playing TABLE TENNIS with his SHARESHOLDERS DESTINY


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Zagee:


They should please give me my dividend, I am currently positioned to jump out of the bus with a +50% on SEPLAT. �

ojeysky:


How, was seplat at below 200 at any point,.... Perhaps you meant +50 naira...... Enjoy your loot and for Guinness, drink responsibly

PETERiCHY:


SEPLAT was selling at circa N150 in Jan 2016

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

gamaliel9:


i do not want to hope again Sir. my UACN is deep red but i am not selling..Hope is not a strategy in stock investing. School fees paid.

ojeysky:


50% profit after 4 years....hmmm okay.

emmanuelewumi:
GSK sold one of their businesses about 3 years ago and paid a special dividend of N7.00 per share. This corporate action made the stock price of GSK to move from N15.00 to N44.00.


The best way the management of UACN will be partially forgiven by shareholders is to share proceeds of their part sale of their UPDC shares will shareholders of the company.

emmanuelewumi:


It is confirmed, their won't be a special dividend from UACN.

sky2891:

Please, how will the proceeds be utilized?

Agbalowomeri:
Party scatter.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtbwTgY3AIk

onegentleguy:
^
^^
^^^
Oya oo !! ...make una quick sell off ur stakes in UACN oo !!
Now that pa Emma has given u guyz a confirmento.

Why all these bids? ...currently over 8M against just less 1M offer.
No doubt, I can see its from some of the very same persons who fiercely criticize UACN here. ...their aim is just to seek a means to buy.
Chai !!

Pls sell off ur stakes now !!

It is well.

PETERiCHY:
In 2007 DANGOTE bought BENUE CEMENT that was trading at N4 did his ABRACADABRA, renamed it DANGOTE CEMENT and enlisted @ N135 per share.
CAN'T you SEE that ALHAJI is playing TABLE TENNIS with his SHARESHOLDERS DESTINY

emmanuelewumi:



Management will utilize it, in the best interest of the shareholders and the company

ojeysky:


How, was seplat at below 200 at any point,.... Perhaps you meant +50 naira...... Enjoy your loot and for Guinness, drink responsibly

Agbalowomeri:
Party scatter.....

ojeysky:
50% profit after 4 years....hmmm okay.

PETERiCHY:


If you put such EFFORT in doing DANGCEM VALUATION you will DISCOVER that it doesn't WORTH N50.

In 2007 DANGOTE bought BENUE CEMENT that was trading at N4 did his ABRACADABRA, renamed it DANGOTE CEMENT and enlisted @ N135 per share.

10years down the lane DANGCEM is still trading at circa N135 couple with countless DEVALUATIONS that has taken place within that period.

CAN'T you SEE that ALHAJI is playing TABLE TENNIS with his SHARESHOLDERS DESTINY


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

ojeysky:
How, was seplat at below 200 at any point,.... Perhaps you meant +50 naira...... Enjoy your loot and for Guinness, drink responsibly

ositadima1:


Not quite.


Once again, I pulled Dangote Cement PLC annual reports from 2010 to 2019 and this is what i saw:

The big Five
Sales (revenue): growth (or contraction) for the last 9 years ==> 17.9% (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
EPS: growth (or contraction) for the last 9 years ==> 5.96% (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
Equity: growth (or contraction) for the last 9 years ==> 17.43% (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
Free Cash Flow: growth (or contraction) for the last 9 years ==> 21.95% (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
Long Term Debt-to-Free Cash Flow: 0.55 (pretty good)

Notes:
Not bad as per Nigerian standard. Though, Sales, EPS, and Equity slowed down last year (2019) at -1.06%, -48% and -8.99% respectively. I assume the harsh economy took a toll on the stock.

Next, Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation

1.) Assuming 5.96% growth (EPS above) and 15% (MoS in view) rate of return projected for the next 10 years and then discounted for MoS. Buy price would be pegged at not more than 140.59 per share.

2.) Assuming 15% growth (Equity above) and 15% (MoS in view) rate of return projected for the next 10 years and then discounted for MoS. Buy price would be pegged at not more than 227.55 per share.

Conclusions: If you can snatch it at less than 140, u are very ok.

Also, better to buy when MACD, Stochastic and MA align and echo buy!







Due diligence applies as these numbers may be off the mark.

emmanuelewumi:



Management will utilize it, in the best interest of the shareholders and the company

Sabiboy99:
Seems UACN and ETI is the new Gold Now oo.. Enter now be4 is too late to those seated in the bus already... seat tight...

UACN almost on full Bid

Bargain Hunters Take note...
Also do your Due Diligence