ahiboilandgas:
if u know the quality and numbers of data and research the r./d departments in cbn carries out daily we will not be having this discussion.....so u think u have more strategy and data more than solodu, mailafiya , kinsely,sunusi and co with lot of money and brain to carry out research....na our chari kambia points without any research go supercede their....i dey laugh....their over 200. people with phd in economic from world class university ware house inside the cbn...

Lol.
The quality of people working at CBN has never been doubted - its the quality of the policies that they put out that sometimes is.
Generally, we all know that sometimes policy made in Nigeria is skewed against the country's interest and in favour of the kleptocrats.

awesomeJ:


You really need to humble yourself to learn.

In a country where the vast majority live on low income with minimum wage at just 30,000. In your own funny reasoning, it's better CBN sells dollars at 480 than at 360 shey?

So when FMN is buying durum wheat at $500 dollars a tonne from the international market, in your funny mind, it better the landing cost is 240,000 per tonne instead of 180,000? Who do you think will suffer it?
The average woman struggling to buy bread loaves at 200 and 10 noodles at 500 will now have to pay 300 for the same loaf and 700 for the noodles and that's what makes sense to you. when her kids start going hungry because Mama's income can no longer buy as much food as before, you think that's when the CBN would have helped them?

You don't just have to argue for the sake of it.

Exchange rate stability is a means to price stability and that's one of the things a monetary can do to help citizens cope better with low/stagnating incomes.

they want to speculate after earning income from speculations they wonder why dstv is 18k it a cycle hurt the naira it hurt u back .....

ahiboilandgas:
so u dont know they have devalues from 305 to 386 and increase vats by 50 percents? They fuel u dey buy since March and gas which dollars dem use import am ...

What fuel?
That is NNPC affairs and you don't expect them to lack forex to import fuel,so I wonder why you'd make that kind of example.
I am talking of normal businesses not getting enough forex with no damn form M,forcing them to aboki.
That is why prices of goods are going up and services might follow suit.
So enough of this your genuine people,form M,form A stories.You arent talking to children.

Cyberknight:


Lol.
The quality of people working at CBN has never been doubted - its the quality of the policies that they put out that sometimes is.
Generally, we all know that sometimes policy made in Nigeria is skewed against the country's interest and in favour of the kleptocrats.

u think u are more info more than them or have better strategist on forex managment or what...

ahiboilandgas:
u think u are more info more than them or have better strategist on forex managment or what...

If they were good at what they do,we wont be having this conversations in the first place.
Canada is also a mono economic country like the shithole,go to their country and check shelf prices since covid and liken it to Nigeria's case,then you will know the whole of CBN are retarded fucktards.
Ph.D is a worthless piece of paper to clean my bushy anus if it can't be put to use to achieve results.
Who cares about their PhD?nigga wtf!!!

TransAtlanticEx:
What fuel?
That is NNPC affairs and you don't expect them to lack forex to import fuel,so I wonder why you'd make that kind of example.
I am talking of normal businesses not getting enough forex with no damn form M,forcing them to aboki.
That is why prices of goods are going up and services might follow suit.
So enough of this your genuine people,form M,form A stories.You arent talking to children.

like which genuie bussiness? Cos genuine bussiness dont patronize aboki ...like sugar refineries,breweries etc are still producing and importing......which products is not on the self? Milk , sugar,flour,indomie,paste ,cements etc which firm has shut down do to lack of forex to import raw material ?.....importer of wine ,beef ,poultry,jeans ,textile and other contraband are the once going to aboki cos they deal.in illegel products

ahiboilandgas:
u think u are more info more than them or have better strategist on forex managment or what...

I think they may know what to do but are they not doing it for political reasons.
For instance, why should Nigeria subside forex sold to "pilgrims"?
Why should Nigeria continue to retain a multiple exchange rate (which has its benefits and clear disadvantages) for long periods of time even in the face of clear evidence that the policy wasn't working?

etc, etc.

TransAtlanticEx:
If they were good at what they do,we wont be having this conversations in the first place.
Canada is also a mono economic country like the shithole,go to their country and check shelf prices since covid and liken it to Nigeria's case,then you will know the whole of CBN are retarded fucktards.
Ph.D is a worthless piece of paper to clean my bushy anus if it can't be put to use to achieve results.
Who cares about their PhD?nigga wtf!!!

u are too crude ....a phd is more than a paper ...it an original research with published findings that can be futher develop.....all those drugs u keep talking for malaria and co are a results of seveal phd thesis ....all major companies have r/d department's......in develop nations u are paid monthly salary to do a Phd .....

ahiboilandgas:
like which genuie bussiness? Cos genuine bussiness dont patronize aboki ...like sugar refineries,breweries etc are still producing and importing......which products is not on the self? Milk , sugar,flour,indomie,paste ,cements etc which firm has shut down do to lack of forex to import raw material ?.....importer of wine ,beef ,poultry,jeans ,textile and other contraband are the once going to aboki cos they deal.in illegel products

I'm not sure you've gone through the CBN import ban list,else you won't put wine imports up there.
There was no forex or customs ban on wine and champagne importers,that is why companies like Moet Hennessy,pernod ricard,leydrop are in Nigeria representing their brands.
So stop preaching all this your form M stories because it doesn't work.
These people are not increasing prices in a very competitive market for nothing
Did I say products arent in the shelfs?Go and check their prices and get back and tell me if it is the same as last year.

einsteine:



You are wrong.

I am not going to belabor the point. If you think lowering interest rates (which would lead to increased loan books on the part of banks) leads to a decrease in Naira supply, then I have nothing further to say.

And on the part of the dollar/Naira issue, if you think 380 is the fair value for the dollar, I am willing to offer you as much naira as you want for as much dollar as you can supply at that price.

Dot just say you're wrong and stop. Argue with facts.

First, who told you that lowering interest rates lead to increased loan book for banks?
Where have you been? haven't you been reading about CRR debits? So if the banks were growing their loan books just enough to reach 65% would there have been as much CRR debits?

I will educate you a little on the naira supply situation currently. Perhaps there'd be others that will learn from it.

You may read a headline saying "bank loanyo the private sector increased by 3.5trn in 2019" but to really get the effect on the impact on naira supply, what you need to consider are :1. the net increase to the domestic Economy:If they increased by 3.5trn to the private sector and reduce by 2.5 trn to the government due to their restricted participation in government securities, then the net credit to the domestic Economy has only grown by 1 trn.

2. The average lending rate: You should know the low yield market has forced banks to also reduced their lending rates to stay competitive. Already most borrowers are paying 1% less in interest since most loans are priced in reference to the MPR, and it's been adjusted by 100bps. Also, how would a bank expect FLOUR MILLS for instance to take facilities at 20%, when. they can easily raise commercial papers at 7% or less because of the low yield market. The result is that banks have generally had to reduce their lending rates by at least 400bps

Now 22trn to the economy at an average rate of 22% pa creates 4.84trn in new naira supply.

But today at a higher amount of even 24trn, the lower pricing of 18% on bank facilities mean that only 4.32trn is created.

3. The third thing you should consider is the impairment charge. How much of the new naira created via interest on loans dissappear via impairments? the expectation is that higher credit-with more going to the private sector rather than the government-exposes banks to more impairment possibilities.

Read carefully and understand.

Cyberknight:


I think they may know what to do but are they not doing it for political reasons.
For instance, why should Nigeria subside forex sold to "pilgrims"?
Why should Nigeria continue to retain a multiple exchange rate (which has its benefits and clear disadvantages) for long periods of time even in the face of clear evidence that the policy wasn't working?

etc, etc.

Nigeria has stop subsiding forex for pilgrims hence hajj money jump from 700 to 1.5m per seat .....2 why will Nigerians and foreigner choose smugglings and selling of contrabands and other illegal act as a way of live? What was the 2 labanese doing with 900k cash of dollars ?How many more have smuggled such sum.out .....if they are genuine bussiness why didnt they transfers the sum ,why will demands from criminals,smugglers,corrupt incomes be used to determine the exchange rates ?

TransAtlanticEx:
Leave him to continue fooling himself,making reference to 2016.
2016 was different,both problems to oil were temporar(militancy especially and price wars).
The moment osibanjo visited ND and probably hand out envelops,militancy stopped.
But today we are looking at a global dwindling demand for oil,so I wonder why any rational human will liken 2016 to today.
Production cuts and oil at $45 is not enough to defend naira appropriately.
Come monday,CBN will inject stipends in the name of intervention that won't be enough and the market will absorb it almost immediately and rates will turn again.
These aren't favourable times,well anything can happen.
But in today's

If 2016 was better as you think and naira went from 199 to 526. Don't you think it should have gone from 360 in 2020 to at least 952?

Start buying dollars at 450, you'll run out of naira before the CBN even spends 10% of its reserves. Just start and see.

awesomeJ:


Quote one if such statements when I said dollar would crash latest this year.

What did you expect me to say when dollar went from 360 to 470. Given the situation at the time it was expected. The only thing to say is that 360 to just 470 or even 480 amid a crisis that has affected the whole world is way better than the 180 to 520 we had in 2016.

A simple objective reasoning is all you need to be convinced of that.

Please go and check your posts from when Emefiele was reappointed, you seem to forget easily. And don’t even try to use the covid as an excuse, what is happening to naira will happen sooner or later covid or not. It’s not rocket science

awesomeJ:


If 2016 was better as you think and naira went from 199 to 526. Don't you think it should have gone from 360 in 2020 at least 952?

Start buying dollars at 450, you'll run out of naira before the CBN even spends 10% of its reserves. Just start and see.

I am not a speculator.
7th no far,we are waiting...

einsteine:



The point is flying over your head.

Let me try to be clearer: if people are willing to buy diesel at 300 naira per litre and a father Christmas somewhere is selling at 200 naira (delivery inclusive), what do you think is going to happen? Won't people who have access to that Father Christmas buy and then sell at the proper price? In such a situation, what is better to encourage the Father Christmas in such foolishness or to tell the Father Christmas to allow the market to operate at the proper price?

If you still don't get the point, then sorry that's the best I can explain

if criminals are willing to buy deseal at 300 naira to speculate and smuggle out wont they cause problem for Nigeria wanting to buy at 200 naira to run productions ...i will undertand better....so for the father Christmas to get the right price those crooks must be out of the equation....

If we subtract 36-5 = 31 billion usd. If Nigerian govt honor these genuine transactions, we should be looking at $1 = N1200. Foreign investors have an exit period, they have tried legally and it bounced, surely they will be going to Abokis and we as a nation are back to square one.

awesomeJ:


You really think $36bn in reserves is not enough to meet $5bn FPIs?

Like I said, the issue is not about having enough, they're just not the priority for now. Let them wait. We'd rather pay them from future receipts. Afterall, they came and enjoyed 13-17% yields.

The foreign investors are still in the market waiting for times like this to mop up any cheap dollar either via CBN or mallams. The amount of Naira chasing dollar will always be excess.

When CBN starts selling dollar to BDCs next week, watch the rate N386/$ specified by CBN will never happen, it's just paperwork, when you go to mallams to buy they will say they dont have dollar meanwhile the dollar is being sold backdoor at N47something.

ahiboilandgas:
that mean they know they will get the dollars at 386 soon if not they will take a lost and exit at 470.......they are the one investing in tb at 1.5 percents to mark time .
.....i think going forward fpi should not be a source of forex to Nigeria.....they cause more damages or better they should have any guarantees ....

Cyberknight:


Lol.
Are you saying that it's only an external shock, the coronavirus pandemic and its effects, that brought Nigeria's currency management to the sorry state it is in now?

FYI, the naira started dropping in January.

Secondly, speculators don't need an external shock to swoop in to attack, they just need somewhere where structural conditions favour their activities, and Nigeria is one such prime location. No external shock was present when the pound was removed from ERM in 92 and interest rates went up and the UK crashed into recession.

I bought dollars at 362 in late January. Maybe some people even bought at 370 earlier in January. But all through February and the first half of March, I was buying at 360, so your reference to January doesn't hold.

Naira only started sliding after the terrible 33% oil price single day loss on March 16, and it became worse only after the CBN suspended sales to BDCs so yes, without the pandemic, things would have been mostly normal.

And saying speculators don't need external shock to do the things they do. I don't argue with that, they can do their speculating all they want, but without the pandemic, it would have led to sustained frustration as it's been since 2017.

ahiboilandgas:
if u know the quality and numbers of data and research the r./d departments in cbn carries out daily we will not be having this discussion.....so u think u have more strategy and data more than solodu, mailafiya , kinsely,sunusi and co with lot of money and brain to carry out research....na our chari kambia points without any research go supercede their....i dey laugh....their over 200. people with phd in economic from world class university ware house inside the cbn...

You are wrong, the cbn technocrats take orders from politicians who are mostly half baked, most of the policies emefiele is carrying out today do not follow economic principles and he would not have taken those decisions if he was not taking orders from Abuja. The country is currently in economic crises and you are talking about cbn technocrats. Laughable

einsteine:



The point is flying over your head.

Let me try to be clearer: if people are willing to buy diesel at 300 naira per litre and a father Christmas somewhere is selling at 200 naira (delivery inclusive), what do you think is going to happen? Won't people who have access to that Father Christmas buy and then sell at the proper price? In such a situation, what is better to encourage the Father Christmas in such foolishness or to tell the Father Christmas to allow the market to operate at the proper price?

If you still don't get the point, then sorry that's the best I can explain

Your anlogy is faulty.

In this case, the Father Christmas is only selling at 200 to people who can prove they genuinely need his diesel because he wants to make sure diesel supply doesn't cause unnecessary hardship to people and their living standards.

If you manufacture basic necessities for Nigerians, come and the CBN will fund your forex needs at a rate that implies you wouldn't be passing unnecessary costs to ordinary Nigerians.

If you consider that "foolishness", then we can only wonder what your thinking about the welfare of the Nigerian masses is.

TotoNaRubber:
If we subtract 36-5 = 31 billion usd. If Nigerian govt honor these genuine transactions, we should be looking at $1 = N1200. Foreign investors have an exit period, they have tried legally and it bounced, surely they will be going to Abokis and we as a nation are back to square one.



The foreign investors are still in the market waiting for times like this to mop up any cheap dollar either via CBN or mallams. The amount of Naira chasing dollar will always be excess.

When CBN starts selling dollar to BDCs next week, watch the rate N386/$ specified by CBN will never happen, it's just paperwork, when you go to mallams to buy they will say they dont have dollar meanwhile the dollar is being sold backdoor at N47something.

after they exit? Then what next ? Where will the naira for futher huge demands come from?.....the cbn is doing quantitative easing out..

einsteine:

The point is flying over your head.Let me try to be clearer: if people are willing to buy diesel at 300 naira per litre and a father Christmas somewhere is selling at 200 naira (delivery inclusive),
If you still don't get the point, then sorry that's the best I can explain

So the CBN should follow the black market and keep selling at the black market rate as if they don't have access to any research or data. Your analogy is confused in itself. Since you are the CBN governor then tell us the fair value of Naira and tell us what you will do to defend that fair value.

X21:


other points to note
choice of car- 1.6 or max 1.8 litres engine capacity will save operator fuel cost. good Nigeria use corolla can be gotten for 1.2m vs 1.8m on direct tokumbo.
Driver selection- a very key success factor. experience shows that drivers who were once mechanics or involved in repairs manage vehicle better. they easily diagnose faults and are not cheated by mechanics. Ensure that driver you intend to engage does not have large family else your delivery will end up for family upkeep. So many good driver start to default as family and responsibility increases. Ensure you do not engage drunk or addicts otherwise delivery will be used to fund addiction.

Which model and year of corolla can be gotten at this amount?.

Surely, exit leaves a damaging impact like dévaluation of our currency, inflation. Delaying the exit could work while getting more economic activities to bring in the forex BUT there are no other economic activities in view to cater for the exit and maintain future forex demands.

Other future demands will come from local industries in Nigeria in Agriculture etc that actually deserves the forex to grow, Nigeria needs them to reduce food and textile importation into the country.

The strategy for Nigeria is to borrow $ 3.4 billion from IMF and add it to the reserve, they came out to tell us that the RESERVE grew by $3 billion, that is not growth but debt (who does that) .

Then Amaechi keep supporting $500 million chinese loan so he can steal $200 million from it, when buhari leaves office then it will all become clearer.

ahiboilandgas:
after they exit? Then what next ? Where will the naira for futher huge demands come from?.....the cbn is doing quantitative easing out..

TransAtlanticEx:
What fuel?
That is NNPC affairs and you don't expect them to lack forex to import fuel,so I wonder why you'd make that kind of example.
I am talking of normal businesses not getting enough forex with no damn form M,forcing them to aboki.
That is why prices of goods are going up and services might follow suit.
So enough of this your genuine people,form M,form A stories.You arent talking to children.

You don't understand the simple explanation.

He said exchange rate and VAT hike are reasons for price hikes by players who get funded through form M. That should be easy for you to understand.

Check the major players NESTLE and the rest any price hikes has only been mild to reflect the fact that they now get dollars at 380 instead of 360. The mild increase is expected.

awesomeJ:


You don't understand the simple explanation.

He said exchange rate and VAT hike are reasons for price hikes by players who get funded through form M. That should be easy for you to understand.

Check the major players NESTLE and the rest any price hikes has only been mild to reflect the fact that they now get dollars at 380 instead of 360. The mild increase is expected.

You are the one who don't understand .
Does Nestle import finished products in the country to resell or import raw materials and produce here?
So why would their prices hike immediately due to forex shortage?
Inflation reflects immediately on imported finished goods while locally manufactured goods get inflated afterwards,even though cost of imported raw materials have increased.
Of what essence is getting dollars at 380 but you don't get enough when you can always go to your nearest aboki for unlimited supply at higher prices?
If companies all wait for dollars at 380 in these periods,they will close shop.
Get that into your head.
And why would you use fuel as an example when NNPC is a dollar earning company and is the one importing the fuel?
Abi you expect them to lack forex too?jeez!!

what does this 10% minimum in MPR mean

awesomeJ:


Yes it is. I'd really like to know.

The CBN bans dorm accounts, someone is saying offshore banks, I buy my $100 or $12000 per week from aboki, how do I get it to them for deposits.

Look for any of the migrating birds from Nigeria to the country of the offshore bank and tie the bag of $$$ to the bird and tell the offshore bank to go to their nesting place for pickup.

chigo4u:

Please go and check your posts from when Emefiele was reappointed, you seem to forget easily. And don’t even try to use the covid as an excuse, what is happening to naira will happen sooner or later covid or not. It’s not rocket science

You're the one referencing a post that doesn't exist so go and check yourself and post here.

I've seen it a few times though when people will assume you said something you never said. It's only in your head, you didn't hear it from me.

Emefiele was reappointed around late May 2019, that should help guide your search.

TotoNaRubber:
If we subtract 36-5 = 31 billion usd. If Nigerian govt honor these genuine transactions, we should be looking at $1 = N1200. Foreign investors have an exit period, they have tried legally and it bounced, surely they will be going to Abokis and we as a nation are back to square one.



The foreign investors are still in the market waiting for times like this to mop up any cheap dollar either via CBN or mallams. The amount of Naira chasing dollar will always be excess.

When CBN starts selling dollar to BDCs next week, watch the rate N386/$ specified by CBN will never happen, it's just paperwork, when you go to mallams to buy they will say they dont have dollar meanwhile the dollar is being sold backdoor at N47something.

So in your opinion 5bn from 36bn would crash rate to 1200? Why did rate not crash to 4000 in 2016? because there was $4bn backlog on $30bn reserves. If someone had followed your analysis to buy at 530 then, 4 years later has he broken even?

awesomeJ:


You don't understand the simple explanation.

He said exchange rate and VAT hike are reasons for price hikes by players who get funded through form M. That should be easy for you to understand.

Check the major players NESTLE and the rest any price hikes has only been mild to reflect the fact that they now get dollars at 380 instead of 360. The mild increase is expected.

he is doning selective understanding..

NL1960:


Look for any of the migrating birds from Nigeria to the country of the offshore bank and tie the bag of $$$ to the bird and tell the offshore bank to go to their nesting place for pickup.

edo airline can do the job better...

awesomeJ:


You're the one referencing a post that doesn't exist so go and check yourself and post here.

I've seen it a few times though when people will assume you said something you never said. It's only in your head, you didn't hear it from me.

Emefiele was reappointed around late May 2019, that should help guide your search.

Lol.. you can’t even remember what you said a little over a year ago and you are back with new theories lol