TransAtlanticEx:
shhh...don't make noise,bring the demand first.
Who sold most of the forex being kept in dorm accounts or in foreign stashes taken out of Nigeria to Switzerland and some islands?
No use yourself judge other people pocket.

The $20bn dorm account don't belong to the abokis, and they weren't funded all at once. You're talking years of accumulation that belong to millions of bank customers.


Now an aboki that trades with $10,000 worth of funds (3.8m) can end up supplying you with even $500k over years. because he's really just trading. He takes his 4m buys dollars, sells to you and collects his 4m back. He can repeat the cycle 50more times and he would have supplied you $500,000 but that doesn't mean he ever had even $20,000 at any one point.

To the guy asking who supplied the billions in dorm account:


The $20bn dorm account don't belong to the abokis, and they weren't funded all at once. You're talking years of accumulation that belong to millions of bank customers.


Now an aboki that trades with $10,000 worth of funds (3.8m) can end up supplying you with even $500k over years. because he's really just trading. He takes his 4m buys dollars, sells to you and collects his 4m back. He can repeat the cycle 50more times and he would have supplied you $500,000 but that doesn't mean he ever had even $20,000 at any one point.

awesomeJ:


what if someone else gets there before my offshore bankers and thinks he's got a windfall? What happens to my sweet $$$�

That is your loss which is the risk you have to bear by using migrating birds instead of the prescribed channel.

Investors invest to gain, that"s it right there ; see your example someone invested $5 billion and waited 3 years and he wants to take out his capital and interest upon maturity and he can only get $4.4 billion, over the last 3 years he has been servicing the probably loan he used to invest in Nigeria only to be told at the end of the investment cycle take $ 4.4 billion or leave it meanwhile he was promised to get more than $5 billion at the start of the investment, i think it is a typical example of frying your own balls as eggs, it doesn"t feel good.

Unfortunately that is the new Nigeria, unstable economy that can wipe your interest rate of 3 to 5 years within 48 hours.

awesomeJ:


You don't understand the situation we'll enough.

The $5b are currently in naira assets and cash. So they bought it in at 360, and it was 1.8 trn. They've earned perhaps 13-17% interests, and the total value of their holdings is now about at about 2.1trn.

So Their choice is to either sell this at 380 and get $5.53bn representing a 10% gain. and there is actually a market big enough to meet their demand, or they choose to sell at 475 like you're suggesting, and they only get back $4.42bn representing about 12% in losses, and abokis in their wildest dreams won't be able to meet their demand. 2.1trn spread across 5000BDCs is about N400m. How many abokis have 400m?

awesomeJ:


The $20bn dorm account don't belong to the abokis, and they weren't funded all at once. You're talking years of accumulation that belong to millions of bank customers.


Now an aboki that trades with $10,000 worth of funds (3.8m) can end up supplying you with even $500k over years. because he's really just trading. He takes his 4m buys dollars, sells to you and collects his 4m back. He can repeat the cycle 50more times and he would have supplied you $500,000 but that doesn't mean he ever had even $20,000 at any one point.

Who said it belongs to northerners?
I simply said northerners supplied it to the owners.
And the same way they accumulated $20b via trading is the same way they'd supply the needs of forex repatriators and forex needs via trading.
Igbo will import/smuggle the currency in,sell to aboki with his limited funds to peddle to you.
If you want $1m,they sell to you multiple times or refer you to their oga for negotiated cuts if they trust you enough,its that simple.
No one will go to an aboki to get $100m at once,its a repeated and recycled daily process.
You are even really ridiculous to think that,even CBN don't sell some kind of funds to a person at once.

TransAtlanticEx:
But they are not 38,000.
They are heading for 50,000 as we speak
Moet hennessy increased their prices by 19.35% about 3 weeks ago,but naira was devalued how many percent again?
So where is the extra money going to?
Doesn't this tell you these people aren't funded enough by the CBN and make up for the extra from aboki?

The exchange rate effect will push it to 38,000. The higher logistics cost due to fuel price increase may add another 1k, Maybe VAT adds 500 and the fact that excise/customs duties will now be paid at 380 as against the old 320 could also add another 500 or 1k. So the price hikes should not have gone beyond 40k from the 36k. Going to 50k may mean people are hoarding. Plus if this situation is peculiar to imported wine products, Like I've said earlier, we're in a time of limited forex resources, and so even though I don't know if or not they're restricted from FX funding by the CBN, I do know for sure that they are not on our priority list for now, and so they may be sourcing FX at 470. Their trade is not one that the Nigerian masses depend on to survive.

NL1960:


The guy is too much. Iam impressed with the analysis of awesomeJ.

Btw, i support that your theory of DOM accounts by individuals to be closed down. Of recent, somebody told me that a guy in his office is opening DOM accounts for himself, wife and kids. Meanwhile, this guy is a salary earner in Naira, spends Naira and does not travel out and his kids are all schooling in Nigeria. So what is he doing with $$$ in DOM accounts?. He collects his salary in Naira and go and buy $$$ to deposit into the DOM accounts. Just imagine.

It is the loophole in the system that people are exploiting.
How many people have dorm account ten years ago compare to today?
As long as we depend solely on oil for our forex need, we will always have problems anytime there is a fall in price.
The CBN is trying her best to manage the situation but we must admit that there is a limit to what they can do giving the situation we find ourselves.

NL1960:


That is your loss which is the risk you have to bear by using migrating birds instead of the prescribed channel.

I see.

NL1960:


That is your loss which is the risk you have to bear by using migrating birds instead of the prescribed channel.

I see.

awesomeJ:


The exchange rate effect will push it to 38,000. The higher logistics cost due to fuel price increase may add another 1k, Maybe VAT adds 500 and the fact that excise/customs duties will now be paid at 380 as against the old 320 could also add another 500 or 1k. So the price hikes should not have gone beyond 40k from the 36k. Going to 50k may mean people are hoarding. Plus if this situation is peculiar to imported wine products, Like I've said earlier, we're in a time of limited forex resources, and so even though I don't know if or not they're restricted from FX funding by the CBN, I do know for sure that they are not on our priority list for now, and so they may be sourcing FX at 470. Their trade is not one that the Nigerian masses depend on to survive.

They are not on any ban list,whether CBN or customs.
If the CBN is now doing priority or no priority,then why are we having this form M conversation?
Isn't it glaring enough to you that it's useless at this point hence almost everyone is turning to aboki?
That is the reason why the parallel market is exploding.
Because there is no need of hoping to get dollars at 380 via form M that might take you one year to get whereas aboki will sell 470 and give you today.
So many people are ditching form M and turning towards aboki.
It's that simple really.

awesomeJ:


The $20bn dorm account don't belong to the abokis, and they weren't funded all at once. You're talking years of accumulation that belong to millions of bank customers.


Now an aboki that trades with $10,000 worth of funds (3.8m) can end up supplying you with even $500k over years. because he's really just trading. He takes his 4m buys dollars, sells to you and collects his 4m back. He can repeat the cycle 50more times and he would have supplied you $500,000 but that doesn't mean he ever had even $20,000 at any one point.

u get brain and it working it called turn over the 30k weekly cbn forex has a margin of max 5 naira ....the bdc have a turn over of 120k permonths but gross profit of 600k ....the biggest buyer of forex is 3 brothers bdc in Lagos island b4 the finger prints thing each company can have 10 bdc license to acces and manipulate the markets ....with has now stop ....what the big time buyers like 3 brothers where doing was having the importer of illegal items like poultry,textile ,and other contraband pay Bleep billion naira into his accounts then he buy up all the dollars from several bdc while the produces fake documentations to the cbn ....

TotoNaRubber:
Investors invest to gain, that"s it right there ; see your example someone invested $5 billion and waited 3 years and he wants to take out his capital and interest upon maturity and he can only get $4.4 billion, over the last 3 years he has been servicing the probably loan he used to invest in Nigeria only to be told at the end of the investment cycle take $ 4.4 billion or leave it meanwhile he was promised to get more than $5 billion at the start of the investment, i think it is a typical example of frying your own balls as eggs, it doesn"t feel good.

Unfortunately that is the new Nigeria, unstable economy that can wipe your interest rate of 3 to 5 years within 48 hours.

No the FPI is not losing anything. He would only lose if he followed your suggestion to go buy aboki dollars at 470. Since he knows better, he'd rather keep the funds invested at4% yield and wait to repartriate at 380, and that's exactly what they're doing.

TransAtlanticEx:
Who said it belongs to northerners?
I simply said northerners supplied it to the owners.
And the same way they accumulated $20b via trading is the same way they'd supply the needs of forex repatriators and forex needs via trading.
Igbo will import/smuggle the currency in,sell to aboki with his limited funds to peddle to you.
If you want $1m,they sell to you multiple times or refer you to their oga for negotiated cuts if they trust you enough,its that simple.
No one will go to an aboki to get $100m at once,its a repeated and recycled daily process.
You are even really ridiculous to think that,even CBN don't sell some kind of funds to a person at once.

So which will end up being better, waiting 3 months to get at 380 from CBN or buying at 470 from abokis who will still take months to supply you since they have to sell in bits.

TransAtlanticEx:
They are not on any ban list,whether CBN or customs.
If the CBN is now doing priority or no priority,then why are we having this form M conversation?
Isn't it glaring enough to you that it's useless at this point hence almost everyone is turning to aboki?
That is the reason why the parallel market is exploding.
Because there is no need of hoping to get dollars at 380 via form M that might take you one year to get whereas aboki will sell 470 and give you today.
So many people are ditching form M and turning towards aboki.
It's that simple really.

Manufacturers of essential items have been getting their genuine FX needs met via form M at 380. The fact that those importing wines and other items that aren't as essential haven't been getting as much funding doesn't mean the CBN is at fault. When your resources (FX in this case) becomes limited, it's only commonsensical to push luxury items down on your scale of preference.

awesomeJ:


So which will end up being better, waiting 3 months to get at 380 from CBN or buying at 470 from abokis who will still take months to supply you since they have to sell in bits.

So if you are the head of one of these companies,you'll shutdown the company,chase all the workers,cause scarcity of your products in the markets which might make your competition overtake you,default all your loans,risk damaging your machines due to idleness,destroy time value for capital all because because CBN say you should wait,they will give you dollars at 380 only God knows when,where abokis are begging you to come and buy at 470 and continue your business in peace?
You're a very brilliant person!

awesomeJ:


Manufacturers of essential items have been getting their genuine FX needs met via form M at 380. The fact that those importing wines and other items that aren't as essential haven't been getting as much funding doesn't mean the CBN is at fault. When your resources (FX in this case) becomes limited, it's only commonsensical to push luxury items down on your scale of preference.

Does this "preference" not make form M useless at this point?
Must everyone do basic ammenities business to be termed genuine?
This so called "preference" is why dollar shot up in the parallel market.
Because all those not on the "preference" form M list turned to abokis.

The N470 blackmarket rate is more feasible to get capital and interest out before another devaluation. Mallams source forex through individuals and businesses too.

Unfortunately the N380 from the CBN is not guaranteed, you could be on six months waiting list and another devaluation catches up with you there. There is a blackmarket in the I&E window selling $1=N400.

awesomeJ:


No the FPI is not losing anything. He would only lose if he followed your suggestion to go buy aboki dollars at 470. Since he knows better, he'd rather keep the funds invested at4% yield and wait to repartriate at 380, and that's exactly what they're doing.

TransAtlanticEx:
So if you are the head of one of these companies,you'll shutdown the company,chase all the workers,cause scarcity of your products in the markets which might make your competition overtake you,default all your loans,risk damaging your machines due to idleness,destroy time value for capital all because because CBN say you should wait,they will give you dollars at 380 only God knows when,where abokis are begging you to come and buy at 470 and continue your business in peace?
You're a very brilliant person!

The dude to be making emotional analysis like ahib.
This was the same guy who said the dollar will crash from 360 to 340 before this year, coming now to deny the claim. I remember when we had this argument previously, he wants me to mention the post so he will say it’s because of covid19.

TransAtlanticEx:
So if you are the head of one of these companies,you'll shutdown the company,chase all the workers,cause scarcity of your products in the markets which might make your competition overtake you,default all your loans,risk damaging your machines due to idleness,destroy time value for capital all because because CBN say you should wait,they will give you dollars at 380 only God knows when,where abokis are begging you to come and buy at 470 and continue your business in peace?
You're a very brilliant person!

I thought you were referring to "imported finished products" now, so what's it with damaging your machines, laying off staff and those stuff you listed. Aren't they things that should affect local manufacturers?

I remember you or maybe the other moniker said you weren't arguing about locally produced goods. You said it was imported finished items like Mo'et.

Stay on one lane now.

awesomeJ:


I thought you were referring to "imported finished products" now, so what's it with damaging your machines, laying off staff and those stuff you listed. Aren't they things that should affect local manufacturers?

I remember you or maybe the other moniker said you weren't arguing about locally produced goods. You said it was imported finished items like Mo'et.

Stay on one lane now.

Dont they have trucks,official cars for workers,distribution Van's,cooling rooms for some certain champagnes,etc..?
If you park truck for months especially ones you have been using,tires go rotten,oil will clog,filters will fail,etc...
Multiply the effect on their fleet and see how much they'll spend to resuscitate them after keeping them down for so long.

TransAtlanticEx:
Does this "preference" not make form M useless at this point?
Must everyone do basic ammenities business to be termed genuine?
This so called "preference" is why dollar shot up in the parallel market.
Because all those not on the "preference" form M list turned to abokis.

The preference doesn't make form M useless. What it does it make sure the limited forex is optimally allocated to keep basic items within the reach of the average nigerian.

Are you saying that knowing fully well that our FX earnings have been significantly impacted, you as CBN governor would have paid the little available FX to fat wall street guys and wine importers, so that people now need N 1000 to buy bread or N 5000 for a sachet of paracetamol?

Is that what you would really do? Maybe you should seek Venezuelan citizenship then. What you desire is readily available there.

chigo4u:

The dude to be making emotional analysis like ahib.
This was the same guy who said the dollar will crash from 360 to 340 before this year, coming now to deny the claim. I remember when we had this argument previously, he wants me to mention the post so he will say it’s because of covid19.

Too emotional,the honest truth is naira is over valued.
Enough of all this socialism and lets embrace capitalism for once else we will remain a poor country.

awesomeJ:


The preference doesn't make form M useless. What it does it make sure the limited forex is optimally allocated to keep basic items within the reach of the average nigerian.

Are you saying that knowing fully well that our FX earnings have been significantly impacted, you as CBN governor would have paid the little available FX to fat wall street guys and wine importers, so that people now need N 1000 to buy bread or N 5000 for a sachet of paracetamol?

Is that what you would really do? Maybe you should seek Venezuelan citizenship then. What you desire is readily available there.

No,I will float the naira and let the market determine its price and merge all rates.
Enough of socialism.

TotoNaRubber:
The N470 blackmarket rate is more feasible to get capital and interest out before another devaluation. Mallams source forex through individuals and businesses too.

Unfortunately the N380 from the CBN is not guaranteed, you could be on six months waiting list and another devaluation catches up with you there. There is a blackmarket in the I&E window selling $1=N400.

So, it was you who counselled them in 2016 to wait for dollars at 360? They've been there before. They know they made a good choice not to buy 520 dollars and it paid off. They have their options well weighed.

Why are we even arguing this. if the FPIs thought your option was the smarter one, they would have chosen it now wouldn't they?

chigo4u:

The dude to be making emotional analysis like ahib.
This was the same guy who said the dollar will crash from 360 to 340 before this year, coming now to deny the claim. I remember when we had this argument previously, he wants me to mention the post so he will say it’s because of covid19.

What's your stress now? Dig out the post you're claiming? perhaps you've searched fruitlessly. Wonder why you'd expect to ever find something that doesn't exits.

Breathe heavily often. It helps to rid yourself of unfounded anger.

TransAtlanticEx:
So if you are the head of one of these companies,you'll shutdown the company,chase all the workers,cause scarcity of your products in the markets which might make your competition overtake you,default all your loans,risk damaging your machines due to idleness,destroy time value for capital all because because CBN say you should wait,they will give you dollars at 380 only God knows when,where abokis are begging you to come and buy at 470 and continue your business in peace?
You're a very brilliant person!

which machinery do importers of finished products like wine have ?

TransAtlanticEx:
Too emotional,the honest truth is naira is over valued.
Enough of all this socialism and lets embrace capitalism for once else we will remain a poor country.

20 year of different devaluation how come we became poorer and host 100m people counting...

TransAtlanticEx:
No,I will float the naira and let the market determine its price and merge all rates.
Enough of socialism.

Define what you mean by float, cos some of you will be there quoting theories you don't understand.

By float do you mean you wouldn't sell any forex and let everyone go source his forex even if at 5000 per dollar, nothing concern you, or do you mean you will be selling but only at the same terrible rate of 5000 per dollar that aboki is selling. Now you pay minimum wage of 30k to mama. Mama buys 2 spaghetti for 4k each, 1 loaf of bread and 2kg of rice. salary don finish. How will a portion that should last her 3 days ever get her through the month? what would you have gained as a CBN governor bringing Zimbabwe and Venezuela on your innocent citizens because you're applying theories out of context.

ahiboilandgas:
which machinery do importers of finished products like wine have ?

Trucks,pick up trucks,vans,cooling rooms,etc...

awesomeJ:


Define what you mean by float, cos some of you will be there quoting theories you don't understand.

By float do you mean you would sell any for and let everyone go source his forex even if at 5000 per dollar, nothing concern you, or do you mean you will be selling but only at the same terrible rate of 5000 per dollar that aboki is selling. Now you pay minimum wage of 30k to mama. Mama buys 2 spaghetti for 4k each, 1 loaf of bread and 2kg of rice. salary don finish. How will a portion that should last her 3 days ever hey her through the month? what would you have gained as a CBN governor bringing Zimbabwe and Venezuela on your innocent citizens because you're applying theories out of context.

Actually yes.
I'll only intervene when things are going out of hands,like say beyond 600.

Tvegas:
So the CBN should follow the black market and keep selling at the black market rate as if they don't have access to any research or data. Your analogy is confused in itself. Since you are the CBN governor then tell us the fair value of Naira and tell us what you will do to defend that fair value.

Another person who doesn't get the point.

If the CBN likes, let them sell at 180 Naira when people are willing to buy for 470. You can decide for yourself what the consequences are of such an action.

ahiboilandgas:
20 year of different devaluation how come we became poorer and host 100m people counting...

Actually,its your unproductive,polio infested,almajiri compatriots that are making us look poor.
Take them out of the equation today and we will be fine.
We have been devaluing yet productive southern zones have been pushing the GDP upwards despite weaker naira.
Now imagine how we would have been without the north dragging us behind.

CBN slashes minimum interest rates on savings deposit to 1.25%

In a bid to stimulate the economy, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has slashed the interest rate payable on monies deposited in savings accounts from the previous benchmark of around 3.75 per annum to around 1.25% per annum

According to a circular issued to all banks, the rate cut is effective from today September 1, 2020.

Analysts say the move will allow smaller banks to grow faster and also make it easier for banks to cut lending rates to borrowers.