onegentleguy:


Maybe u haven't come accross or read it but we have always stated it here.

The reason is in the word; EFFICIENCY... which is the ability of management to generate more(net income) from less asset(mainly cash in this case)
GTB does more with fewer asset than ZENITH with a higher asset base.
The interpretation of this is that GTB as an entity can generate(NPM/RoIC) a little more Naira than ZENITH assuming they were given an equal asset base.
...put differently, assuming u gave an equal amount of fund(say N10) to both banks, the former can erk out more profit(say 20k) at a faster pace than the latter, ceteris peribus.
So by implication, if GTB can generate more in lesser time, then they are clearly more EFFICIENT !!(time value for money in view)
Thats why GTB has historically had a better ROE, AER and CGPR than ZENITH BANK !!

There's a strong level of belief attached to that part in bold. which explains why as an investor, u would likely be inclined to take up an equity stake in the former at higher pricing.
...hence the price premium between both coys.

Things might change in future though. But for now, it is what it is !!

Regards

Thanks a lot for this explanation sir.

S & P VIX is now at 30.

Please leave US, EU, Asian equities now. Please.

This is an exit call to abandon foreign stocks, bitcoin, gold, oil.

VIX will need to spike to 95 ultimately.

The assets (equity, bitcoin, gold, oil) fall has started.

holm:

You have sense.

And history has repeated it self today.

Black Thursday.

Asia should not open. Because there will be commotion.

RabbiDoracle:
S & P VIX is now at 30.

Please leave US, EU, Asian equities now. Please.

This is an exit call to abandon foreign stocks, bitcoin, gold, oil.

VIX will need to spike to 95 ultimately.

The assets (equity, bitcoin, gold, oil) fall has started.

Dem go hear !!

There are clear signs that when it begins to rain, it will likely pour.
Unfortunately, advise when most needed is least headed.

Btw, I will exclude BTC and Oil amongst the assets u mentioned, for good reasons though.
...the probability that both will fall with the others is nearer to 0 than 1.
The current drop in BTC was expected. But I don't see it going below the March low or even the $9-10,000 level in the near term.
As for Oil, the gradual turn in global events including increased economic activities from fewer restrictions, post covid-19 is ur friend naw.
I see oil price trending gently upwards from here.

It is well.

onegentleguy:


Dem go hear !!

There are clear signs that when it begins to rain, it will likely pour.
Unfortunately, advise when most needed is least headed.

Btw, I will exclude BTC and oil amongst the assets u mentioned, for good reasons though.
...the probability that both will fall with the others is nearer to 0 than 1.

It is well.

Once there is a selloff and the algos join to intensify the sell, there are usually no buyers. At that point, there is liquidity issues. Because money isn't exchanging hands anymore. Hence the freeze.

In order for investors to settle their margins trading, they sell anything that can be sold. Gold, bitcoin, oil. Just to free up cash.


That is why when equities fall and a freeze occurs, they face other safe haven to unload them for cash.

That was why I told nosa2 that Gold will first fall massively before it will stage a comeback.

RabbiDoracle:


Once there is a selloff and the algos join to intensify the sell, there are usually no buyers. At that point, there is liquidity issues. Because money isn't exchanging hands anymore. Hence the freeze.

In order for investors to settle their margins trading, they sell anything that can be sold. Gold, bitcoin, oil. Just to free up cash.


That is why when equities fall and a freeze occurs, they face other safe haven to unload them for cash.

That was why I told nosa2 that Gold will first fall massively before it will stage a comeback.

I'm trying to understand how gold take fall

I smiled when I saw some newbies trashing the NSE while hiping the NYSE. The move into the NYSE was a very risky one for investors as at July/August 2020 for two reasons.

1. Foreign exchange risk: For Nigerian investors who bought dollar at N483 in August in order to invest in NYSE, Naira has gained within one week. The losses are real.

2. The market is Overbought: It was obvious to the blind that the market was overbought as investors were just buying everything and anything. The burble will burst at some point.

This doesn't take away the fact that the NYSE is a grandpa to our own NSE but I believe timing the entry into any market is the key thing. I may not make 100% in one day in NSE but the 10% I will make in one month gives me peace.

Look out for FBNH. It will shock a lot of people

Tvegas:
I smiled when I saw some newbies trashing the NSE while hiping the NYSE. The move into the NYSE was a very risky one for investors as at July/August 2020 for two reasons.

1. Foreign exchange risk: For Nigerian investors who bought dollar at N483 in August in order to invest in NYSE, Naira has gained within one week. The losses are real.

2. The market is Overbought: It was obvious to the blind that the market was overbought as investors were just buying everything and anything. The burble will burst at some point.

This doesn't take away the fact that the NYSE is a grandpa to our own NSE but I believe timing the entry into any market is the key thing. I may not make 100% in one day in NSE but the 10% I will make in one month gives me peace.

Just choose btw 1 of these 2 names; SOLOMON and WISDOM. I have given it to u.
U might as well adopt both names.

Well said dear !!
Time and again, I mentioned that 1st point as one of the carrying risk with playing the intl mkt.

Unless the CBN sells more than enough fx to clear previous backlog and monitors the operations of the BDC folks to avoid arbitrage plays, I do not forsee any likely trigger for a sharp drop in Fx rate(gain in N). ...maybe it will average out at a slight premium(20-30%) to the NAFEX window rate.
However, the problem is that most folks rushed into these foriegn mkts when the exchange rate was @ near and above N470/$, on the herds projection of a N550/$ rate. ...so they'll have to pay an even higher price(risk) associated with any drop now.
For context, a person resident in Nigeria who invested $10,000 would've lost or had at least N500,000 taken off his EXPECTED RETURN following a N50 fx gain(N420/$) post investment.
By the way, that is still an expected return, as we are yet to factor in other likely risk.

Before the news that the CBN will resume dollar sales to BDCs, some folks didn't even know that it was a dangerous play buying into foreign equities while the Naira was falling against the dollar and oil price turning back up following the gradual resumption of economic activities post covid-19.
Perhaps they didn't understand the relationship btw how rising oil price and a falling Naira(especially from fx restrictions/management) could negatively impact their real return in Naira terms post an investment in a $ denominated asset.
Just wait until the country gets the $1.5B dollar world bank loan.

Again, what was of even more concern was that most of the said foreign assets lacked worthy fundamentals to justify their price rise.
We have always said that the recent surge in the stock markets of most advanced and EM economies was purely liquidity-driven pushed by the chase for yields above the negative real returns therein, and NOT the result of any fundamental stance.

U see this bubble; when it will rain, it'll surely pour.

Regards

RabbiDoracle:
S & P VIX is now at 30.

Please leave US, EU, Asian equities now. Please.

This is an exit call to abandon foreign stocks, bitcoin, gold, oil.

VIX will need to spike to 95 ultimately.

The assets (equity, bitcoin, gold, oil) fall has started.

Exit calls for those who only know how to make money in a rising market.

onegentleguy:


For the purpose of clarity, its important to note that the price of GTB is also UNDERVALUED at the current mkt price, so that part in bold should not take away that fact.
For context, it(that part) was only intended to compare both coys in view of their prospects at delivering returns(ROI in view)

Selah

please OGG, when is Gtb paying the interim? i mean date?

Zenith Bank Offers 30 Kobo Interim Dividend, Grows H1 2020 Earnings
https://businesspost.ng/banking/zenith-bank-offers-30-kobo-interim-dividend-grows-h1-2020-earnings/

FRC Tackles R.T. Briscoe Nigeria Over Auditor’s Opinion
https://businesspost.ng/economy/frc-tackles-r-t-briscoe-nigeria-over-auditors-opinion/

Guinness Nigeria to Focus Less on Lager Brands
https://businesspost.ng/economy/guinness-nigeria-to-focus-less-on-lager-brands/

Nigeria Suffers Third Consecutive Quarterly Trade Deficit
https://businesspost.ng/economy/nigeria-suffers-third-consecutive-quarterly-trade-deficit/

PZ Cussons Shareholders to Meet September 24 for Sale of Nutricima to Friesland
https://businesspost.ng/economy/pz-cussons-shareholders-to-meet-over-sale-of-nutricima-for-20-3m/

Shareholders of Mobil Oil to Get N8.50 Dividend Payment Alerts October
https://businesspost.ng/economy/shareholders-of-mobil-oil-to-get-n8-25-dividend-payment-alerts-october/

Buhari Releases 30,000 tons of Maize to Tackle High Food Prices
https://businesspost.ng/economy/buhari-releases-30000-tons-of-maize-to-tackle-high-food-prices/

OGG: Please what went wrong with UBA as regards drop in PBT,PAT.
What is your verdict, under/ over VALUE.
Analysis of H1 results

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/31373_FIDELITY_BANK_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR.pdf Fidelity Bank

E Ku Fidelity Bank result o.
As expected, Fide performed well.
Q2 2020 EPS : 39
Q2 2019 EPS of 29
PAT: over 34% increase.

E Ku Q2 results ooo.

RabbiDoracle:
S & P VIX is now at 30.

Please leave US, EU, Asian equities now. Please.

This is an exit call to abandon foreign stocks, bitcoin, gold, oil.

VIX will need to spike to 95 ultimately.

The assets (equity, bitcoin, gold, oil) fall has started.

The streets are red.

Ekuu Mkt o

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/31376_ACCESS_BANK_PLC.-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_.pdf

currentprice:
Ekuu Mkt o

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/31376_ACCESS_BANK_PLC.-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_.pdf

Okay. EPS dropped about 9% from 190k to 173k. They maintained their 25 kobo dividend.

onegentleguy:


Sorry dear,
I forgot that its half yr reports that we are expecting.

3k drop in interim divided compared to previous yr distribution.
Looking at the report, we might as well pass some of the blame on covid-19 !! Apparently, the bank had to make donations in that line as part of its CSR.
That donation of over N4.7B was indeed one of the key contributors to the higher expense line(other OPEX in view) ...the other was the surge in remittance for contract services by over N4.8B YoY.
Those 2, together with the mark-up on impaired assets and higher admin expense, explains the ~21.7% drop in NET MARGIN despite increased NII and NFCI.
Good that NIM retains a positive track though.

Drawback? Yes, but earnings trajectory remains stable.

UBA still remains UNDERVALUED at the current mkt price.

Selah

eziokwunwoko:
OGG: Please what went wrong with UBA as regards drop in PBT,PAT.
What is your verdict, under/ over VALUE.
Analysis of H1 results

The post above was in reference to UBA.

Tvegas:
I smiled when I saw some newbies trashing the NSE while hiping the NYSE. The move into the NYSE was a very risky one for investors as at July/August 2020 for two reasons.

1. Foreign exchange risk: For Nigerian investors who bought dollar at N483 in August in order to invest in NYSE, Naira has gained within one week. The losses are real.

2. The market is Overbought: It was obvious to the blind that the market was overbought as investors were just buying everything and anything. The burble will burst at some point.

This doesn't take away the fact that the NYSE is a grandpa to our own NSE but I believe timing the entry into any market is the key thing. I may not make 100% in one day in NSE but the 10% I will make in one month gives me peace.

Well said

TLAX:


Okay. EPS dropped about 9% from 190k to 173k. They maintained their 25 kobo dividend.

Very good......but drop in EPS is to be considered

currentprice:
Ekuu Mkt o

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/31376_ACCESS_BANK_PLC.-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_.pdf

Relatively flat result, but with a slight drawback.
Better than UBA though !!

While both coys(ACCESS and UBA) remain underpriced, I will score the former slightly better than the latter.
Portfolio allocation: I'd say 65/35% or 60/40% respectively.

Regards

onegentleguy:


Relatively flat result, but with a slight drawback.
Better than its UBA though !!

While both coys(ACCESS and UBA) remain underpriced, I will score the former slightly better than the latter.

Regards

What are the reasons you prefer ACCESS to UBA?

NB: Am in UBA bus...

onegentleguy:


Just choose btw 1 of these 2 names; SOLOMON and WISDOM. I have given it to u.
U might as well adopt both names.

Well said dear !!
Time and again, I mentioned that 1st point as one of the carrying risk with playing the intl mkt.

Unless the CBN sells more than enough fx to clear previous backlog and monitors the operations of the BDC folks to avoid arbitrage plays, I do not forsee any likely trigger for a sharp drop in Fx rate(gain in N). ...maybe it will average out at a slight premium(20-30%) to the NAFEX window rate.
However, the problem is that most folks rushed into these foriegn mkts when the exchange rate was @ near and above N470/$, on the herds projection of a N550/$ rate. ...so they'll have to pay an even higher price(risk) associated with any drop now.
For context, a person resident in Nigeria who invested $10,000 would've lost or had at least N500,000 taken off his EXPECTED RETURN following a N50 fx gain(N420/$) post investment.
By the way, that is still an expected return, as we are yet to factor in other likely risk.

Before the news that the CBN will resume dollar sales to BDCs, some folks didn't even know that it was a dangerous play buying into foreign equities while the Naira was falling against the dollar and oil price turning back up following the gradual resumption of economic activities post covid-19.
Perhaps they didn't understand the relationship btw how rising oil price and a falling Naira(especially from fx restrictions/management) could negatively impact their real return in Naira terms post an investment in a $ denominated asset.
Just wait until the country gets the $1.5B dollar world bank loan.

Again, what was of even more concern was that most of the said foreign assets lacked worthy fundamentals to justify their price rise.
We have always said that the recent surge in the stock markets of most advanced and EM economies was purely liquidity-driven pushed by the chase for yields above the negative real returns therein, and NOT the result of any fundamental stance.

U see this bubble; when it will rain, it'll surely pour.

Regards

You have spoken well too
However, there are some fundamentally sound stocks on the market tho
That will not sink as deep as the broad index will sink


It depends on the investment objective of the prospective investor sha
Some are in it for the long game
Just buying and loading ETFs and a few other "not so sexy stocks"

But for hit and run traders
Those ones have jammed one chance

thesilentone:


Exit calls for those who only know how to make money in a rising market.

So you are staying in to weather the storm....

Very nice

DexterousOne:


You have spoken well too
However, there are some fundamentally sound stocks on the market tho
That will not sink as deep as the broad index will sink


It depends on the investment objective of the prospective investor sha
Some are in it for the long game
Just buying and loading ETFs and a few other "not so sexy stocks"

But for hit and run traders
Those ones have jammed one chance

Very true bro. ...that's why I used that line; "most of the said foreign assets lacked worthy fundamentals to justify their price rise." in the post u quoted.
Notice the use of the word "most", implying that there are also a few assets prices that were backed by fundamentals.
Of course the likes of Amazon, Apple, Zoom, Facebook and some select healthcare coys had good reasons to justify their price rise. ...though it can also be argued that the rise was way too much(asset price trailing surrounding risk ahead of FVs)

As for the part in bold, well...

Why is ETI still dragging.....its being influenced by the elephant?

dinyelutochukwu:

The streets are red.

All that money will find it's way to the oil sector. Winter is coming

TLAX:


Okay. EPS dropped about 9% from 190k to 173k. They maintained their 25 kobo dividend.

25k ..Nice

RabbiDoracle:
S & P VIX is now at 30.

Please leave US, EU, Asian equities now. Please.

This is an exit call to abandon foreign stocks, bitcoin, gold, oil.

VIX will need to spike to 95 ultimately.

The assets (equity, bitcoin, gold, oil) fall has started.

Na now you go know say Ninjas dey this game. Nothing is happening to gold and silver. Oil may fall but believe me owning Exxon or Total will give you better returns over the NSE in the next 12 months

nosa2:


Na now you go know say Ninjas dey this game. Nothing is happening to gold and silver. Oil may fall but believe me owning Exxon or Total will give you better returns over the NSE in the next 12 months

I hold 1 of the stocks. Been holding for long.

But that doesn't mean it will not fall back.

Gold has just gone to the market to buy shovel. Digging continues today.

RabbiDoracle:


Tesla needs to fall towards $278. What will cause it to fall this low will drag:

Dow : 16K
S & P : 1,800
NASDAQ: 5,800

And I truly don't know what will cause it. This is an early warning.

Then lots of EMs and FMs could have contagion effect from the developed market fall. The liquidity driven rally is about to come to an end in my opinion.

With 5 for 1 stock split done by Tesla, the $278 is now equivalent to $55.