There is nothing new in what this bukuru man said that i have not heard from Sanusi Lamido sanusi in 2012. I wish APC allowed Jonathan to implement those reform in 2012 Nigeria will not be in this mess today. Vote Sanusi Lamido for president in 2023.

AmigoDeDon:
End of Naira

No doubt that will spell the end of the Naira. This is asking Nigeria to go the way of Zimbabwe. The currency will just become useless.

For the avoidance of doubt, Naira is actually currently under-valued! What kills the value is not just over-reliance on imports but the fact that looters prefer to store their money in hard currency, as they wait for an election that is 3 years away. It was discovered at a time that any time FAAC was shared price of dollar will instantly go up. Why? - The answer should be obvious.

There is a demand for USD as a store of LOOT. The economy has not been factoring this in. There was this ex-NNPC chief who had close to 10 million dollars in a village house! There was the other 144million USD cash found in a house in Ikoyi. Do we know how many other such 'dollar stores' are not found?

Oga Kingsley, with all due respect, your suggestion will destroy the economy. There is no sane country where you buy forex on the street without documentation. The politicians will not make a law to prohibit holding dollars outside the banking sector, because that law will affect them the most.

As a country, we are yet to start - and right now we are a laughing stock, to the extent that a British leader once said that our country is fantastically corrupt.

iyke4:
I get his point but with the way salary ain’t increasing and how we import the most important things from outside the shores of Nigeria, I can say that basic things might become a luxury like buying a car, phone, washing machines and so on. All I can say is the poor man is doomed

You seem to understand economics, most people supporting the free float of the naira are not facing the reality on ground.
Just check the price of kerosene and diesel then you will understand even the so called premium gas is not as expensive as those two listed up there just because regulations have been removed, there are economic whales that would control the exchange rate in a country like ours.
I think what should first happen is that the regime of multiple exchange rates in the country should be abolished it favors only the elites.
The truth is as long as we import most things there will always be excess demand. Thus the price will continue to go up.
Let them first put in place mechanisms that would absorb the events that will result to excess demand for forex.
Asides that most developing nations don't float their currencies that's just the blunt truth, some developed countries too such as UAE, Saudi, Hong Kong, even almighty China didn't float her currency.
Las Las na the rich people e go favor, abegi make dem no float anything, even when dem dey defend am na up e dey go.

yungpowers:
Tribalism will never allow our youths vote for such a product.
They'll rather vote for vegetables who'll mortgage their future.
Nigerians deserve Buhari.

If he wasn't voted because of tribalism, then why was Sowore or Fela not voted? He just has to work on his approach. Power is not given; it's taken.

you will get to the point where they cannot defend it because there is no $$ to.

it will be worse then than if they did it by themselves.

that was what happened Sudan and Zimbabwe. they had no choice so their currencies went free fall.

quote author=Yankee101 post=93845514]If nigeria still imports prices will sky rocket and people will overthrow the government if you don't defend the naira

See Sudan (flood), Zimbabwe (sanctions) etc

Until we begin to export substantially then we can benefit from a weak naira, not before then [/quote]

dacool1:

You seem to understand economics, most people supporting the free float of the naira are not facing the reality on ground.
Just check the price of kerosene and diesel then you will understand even the so called premium gas is not as expensive as those two listed up there just because regulations have been removed, there are economic whales that would control the exchange rate in a country like ours.
I think what should first happen is that the regime of multiple exchange rates in the country should be abolished it favors only the elites.
The truth is as long as we import most things there will always be excess demand. Thus the price will continue to go up.
Let them first put in place mechanisms that would absorb the events that will result to excess demand for forex.
Asides that most developing nations don't float their currencies that's just the blunt truth, some developed countries too such as UAE, Saudi, Hong Kong, even almighty China didn't float her currency.
Las Las na the rich people e go favor, abegi make dem no float anything, even when dem dey defend am na up e dey go.

Thank you. Some economists always want to compare us with countries where systems work. In Nigeria, it is not the same. here, people loot so much and store their loot in dollars. If you free-float the naira, they will not mind. The few dollars we earn will end up in their roofs and they will have 24x7x365 Police protection. Business will suffer as a result and poverty will multiply.

KGREAT:
There is nothing new in what this bukuru man said that i have not heard from Sanusi Lamido sanusi in 2012. I wish APC allowed Jonathan to implement those reform in 2012 Nigeria will not be in this mess today. Vote Sanusi Lamido for president in 2023.

The dream pairing will be Sanusi and Peter Obi to handle monetary and fiscal problems in Nigeria respectively as a couple who deeply believe in these things and are comoetent enough to implement them.

We need to have technocrats in goverment at the highest levels for a season. Let us try something different for once.

Dee60:


Thank you. Some economists always want to compare us with countries where systems work. In Nigeria, it is not the same. here, people loot so much and store their loot in dollars. If you free-float the naira, they will not mind. The few dollars we earn will end up in their roofs and they will have 24x7x365 Police protection. Business will suffer as a result and poverty will multiply.

What is 'we' earn. Who is the 'we'. I earn foreign exchange and have to give it to the CBN by law at a loss (because buying it back is at their discretion). Float the naira and it won't matter who owns the forex and it will certainly encourage everyone to quest for external trade, external investment and decrease the desire for foreign accounts and dollar hoarding.

I have learnt so much from this. God bless you richly sir.

please one pandemic at a time

surgical:
So this guy is not different from other copy and paste economist,just regurgitating text book theories,without original thought or consideration for the peculiarity of the nation,his suggestions is a recipe for disaster

what suggestion? Mr know it all , he has given his own opinion without any insult why don't you tell us ur own suggestions? You criticise, zombie will say ur criticism lack objectivity, you come up with solutions they say u are a mere paper economist, my question is what do people want in this country?

Reference:


What is 'we' earn. Who is the 'we'. I earn foreign exchange and have to give it to the CBN by law at a loss (because buying it back is at their discretion). Float the naira and it won't matter who owns the forex and it will certainly encourage everyone to quest for external trade, external investment and decrease the desire for foreign accounts and dollar hoarding.

In what areas do we have comparative advantage? Even with primary produce like Cocoa, Cashew, Ginger, Nigeria is seen as a last resort. I know that for a fact. Buyers will mop up Cashew from small Guinea, Ivory Coast, before they touch Nigeria. Quality, processes, etc are not trusted. On finished products it is next to ZERO. Now, people are exporting KuliKuli, Milo, Maltina, garri. Apart from Nigerians outside, who will buy these? All the value is what - less than 1million dollars. Serious countries do not call that export!

Nigeria's earnings go far beyond some of those things you thought I was referring to. The billions remitted by Nigerians living abroad. The billions collected as dues on ships entering Nigeria. The billions earned from sale of crude. Those are the 'we'. I can go on. The fact is that a free-fall will not necessarily improve our earnings in these sectors. Imports will drop, so will the earnings on trade related forex. Remittances may not increase, because the supply side has not changed. Crude oil revenues may not go up because supply is capped by OPEC. How will a free fall suddenly improve export?

I am glad you mentioned that you export. Are the processes encouraging to you? Try to scale up and see how the system will charge against you!
By the way, the major exporters in Nigeria today are Asian companies. They have their own use of forex and may not really mind a really bad Naira.

I totally agree with you that if you earn dollars, you should not be forced to sell to CBN. Its your earning. It should just sit in your dollar account.

Closing, until the country blocks the holes and leakages (and we dont even know how big they are), toying with free-float could lead to an uncontrollable regime like they had in Sudan and Zimbabwe.

Eriksson:
As if he did not enjoy the naira subsidy while he was at the cbn. That same subsidy he's talking about has turned him into a billionaire (along with all cbn top dogs past & present)

It's a quick, clean and relatively risk free racket that northern politicians use to cashout, but the corollary is that Nigeria's economy will forever be on life support as long as we use dual rates

Gbam!

He has made his points, difficult as they may be. Instead of saying they are just theories, can you bring up your own suggestions/ideas?

jericco1:
All these things are just theories. Easier said than done

I'm not Igbo but I don de talk this thing since. make we make this man Kingsley Moghalu president of this country. He is an economist, he will know better. let's stop recycling these old featherheads

Freesingle:
The Japanese and Chinese currencies are relatively low compared to the united States dollar but they have a strong and competitive economy. Industrialization is the way forward

Nigeria cannot industrialize because the ppl hv a bad attitude to work.... the factory employees will tell u why should I stress my self "it's not my father's business" or "I cannot come and kee myself".. China will not be industrialized today if workers had that attitude.

Jafar1:
One doesn't need a soothsayer to know to know this government mean no good to the masses..

Hmmm

Out of all the fine economic grammar and analysis Moghalu said came up with, na only "govt means no good for the masses" u fit comment.

U no do well at all. Oga go back and re-read the article and come back with better comment.

membranus:


Hmmm

Out of all the fine economic grammar and analysis Moghalu said came up with, na only "govt means no good for the masses" u fit comment.

U no do well at all. Oga go back and re-read the article and come back with better comment.

U wey read, wetin be ur comment on the matter?

GamalNasser:
Freely floating the Naira under the current govt would be quite Dangerous..The stability of a countrys currency is directly tied to the quality bof leadership

Lol, from which school did you learn this? And this is one of the self acclaim leaders of tomorrow. Is alright.

membranus:


Hmmm

Out of all the fine economic grammar and analysis Moghalu said came up with, na only "govt means no good for the masses" u fit comment.

U no do well at all. Oga go back and re-read the article and come back with better comment.

Yes na,

If govt implement what Prof Moghalu is proposing it will be a disaster.

Govt closing borders to curb importation could not succeed in raising productivity, industrialization and exports so is it floating the naira that will work?

Jafar1:


U wey read, wetin be ur comment on the matter?

No comment sir.

yungpowers:
Tribalism will never allow our youths vote for such a product.
They'll rather vote for vegetables who'll mortgage their future.
Nigerians deserve Buhari.

If Kingsley becomes president today and he allow free float of naira, you will be the first person to Stine him. He said everything so smooth and you are praising, can you find out what will be the likely exchange rate of naira to dollar under free float within one year, have you ask him how long did he think it will take Nigeria to diversify in other to support the naira value from depending on oil price? Perhaps you didn't see in his write up that he has admitted, contrary to you guys believe that oil price and foreign reserve has a lot to do in determining the value of naira.

surgical:
So this guy is not different from other copy and paste economist,just regurgitating text book theories,without original thought or consideration for the peculiarity of the nation,his suggestions is a recipe for disaster

You are spot on.
Besides, even if he is correct; it would be political suicide for any govt to try to implement those policies now - ordinary subsidy removal and see how Nigerians are already reacting; talk about devaluing the Naira along with its immediate attendant inflationary consequences on goods and services.

yungpowers:
Tribalism will never allow our youths vote for such a product.
They'll rather vote for vegetables who'll mortgage their future.
Nigerians deserve Buhari.

floating the naira now is a disaster... leave all this write up.
Nigeria as a nation spend more forex importing petroleum than they spend on rice importation but you will not hear the same government attack fuel importation the way they attack rice importation... it begs the question why?

VeeVeeMyLuv:

Yes na,

If govt implement what Prof Moghalu is proposing it will be a disaster.

Govt closing borders to curb importation could not succeed in raising productivity, industrialization and exports so is it floating the naira that will work?

Yes.

If govt free- float the naira, then the poor will further go hungry as purchase of common foods like rice, beans and corns will be out of their reach. Then violence in the land against the govt and its rich officers, then complete anarchy, and finally REVOLUTION and rearrangement of the present political order which favors the rich and the influential.

Let them free the Naira to free the nation.

Revolution Now!!!!

Ventura1:
More reason Nigeria needs a Revolution, a reset is needed to fix the country.

I perfectly agree with Moghalu on the fact

stop importation of petroleum products first... I totally disagree with him

I doff my heart sir. You truly understand the economic issues at play here.
I align with most of your points. We should focus first however on getting rid of or minimizing this issue of having dual exchange rates. It is heavily abused and doing more harm than good.

Dee60:


In what areas do we have comparative advantage? [/b]Even with primary produce like Cocoa, Cashew, Ginger, Nigeria is seen as a last resort. I know that for a fact. Buyers will mop up Cashew from small Guinea, Ivory Coast, before they touch Nigeria. Quality, processes, etc are not trusted. On finished products it is next to ZERO. The fact is that a free-fall will not necessarily improve our earnings in these sectors. Imports will drop, so will the earnings on trade related forex. Remittances may not increase, because the supply side has not changed. Crude oil revenues may not go up because supply is capped by OPEC. How will a free fall suddenly improve export?

[b]Closing, until the country blocks the holes and leakages (and we dont even know how big they are), toying with free-float could lead to an uncontrollable regime like they had in Sudan and Zimbabwe.

[b][/b]

alizma:

Lol, from which school did you learn this? And this is one of the self acclaim leaders of tomorrow. Is alright.

Do you know how to comprehend at all..so don't even go where you are going with this ....Allow Buhari with freely floating naira and see where his bad policies won't devalue by over 1000 percent ...Next time before you argue with anyone make sure you have achieved more in life than them ok ..Now Bleep off

This is the kind of thread that should get to 30 or 40 pages if we were serious as a people, instead only threads on irrelevancies like bbnaija, entertainment like sports and political threads that encourage tribalism and bad blood that garner such contributions.
Moghalu's views initially look good but unfortunately are not well thought out or suited for our situation now. I have read richer and more convincing thoughts and ideas from some of the few contributions so far on this topic. Economic policies should be for the good of the people, not vice versa.
I however support scraping the dual exchange rates as presently obtains. It has been a big minus for the nation.

rottennaija:


What sort of revolution? Thee Libya King? Where is Libya now after the revolution with the hope and promise of a better society?

Sometimes, we need to calm down.

Calm for nothing?

Many peace were gotten through war, protest or revolution, etc.

yungpowers:
Tribalism will never allow our youths vote for such a product.
They'll rather vote for vegetables who'll mortgage their future.
Nigerians deserve Buhari.

Vote for this thief? God forbid. Kindlsey Moghalu was one of CBN Deputy Governors when Goatluck Jonaddaft and his gang of 40 thieves were looting. While Sanusi Lamido the pedophile from Kano was screaming thief, thieff, jankoriko, Kingsley remained quiet because Kingsley was also stealing his own from the national treasury. Even while the Kano pedophile Sanusi Lamido was being humiliated and disgraced by Goatluck Jonaddaft for speaking the truth, Kingsley kept quiet and colluded with the treasury looters to continue looting. Or did anyone here heard anything from the CBN Deputy Governors when Sanusil Lamido was screaming thief, thief, jankoriko or when he was being humilaited by the treasury looters? NO. In a place like China, Kingsley, his father Moghalu and his children whould have been executed at the market square.