@shigidi
Dangote sugar's figures are solid. I think u can get the prospectus on fsdh website.
Thing is, you can never detach sentiments from dangote stocks (all of them), they rise and fall more forcefully on sentiments than on fundamentals.
But the figures are good.

Dangote sugar might go down a bit more.
The market is shaping up very nicely with stocks hitting new lows everyday, just look at nascon, ashaka
Transcorp is still relentless but looking very interesting too.
I'm looking to see if some better value stocks shed more fat

@pangolo
Based on past performance, Japaul was overvalued as i explained 2 days ago.
But then, do you really buy a stock for past performance? rather its the expected future performance that one discounts and the possibility of the company meeting or indeed surpassing its forecasts.

Case in point, Fidelity came out with their po last year at a trailing pe of 16 and a forward pe of 8 (no company comes this cheap again unfortunately). Their performance this year has been miles better than they forecasted (which seemed hugely ambitous at the time), this has sent the price rocketing and some are now screaming overvalued. But it can be argued that the current price discounts the ability of the management to surpass expectations or the wisdom of a management that makes hugely modest forecasts. Over here in uk, most companies that come up with an offer make hugely modest predictions so that the results will exceed the forecasts and in turn shareholders will love the company and the company will have good credibility with analysts.

Back to Japaul, their forecasts are interesting, it could easily be a 10-12 naira stock by 2009.
I certainly think it should not trade below 5 currently (thats a forward pe of 13). They still have the contracts and their forecasts do not seem impossible/overly ambitous given the money they are raising.

Final decision is yours

@wanaj0

That settles it then, because i like to know people's risk profiles (allergies) too before recommending (prescribing) a stock (drug).

i screen stocks too  (probably with a diff criteria though), thats why i have a long list of no-gos. But within my "looking good list", i have found that the market can be timed with a good rate of success and i am sure you have probably done that many times too.
Have you ever bought a stock shortly before end of year? have you ever sold shortly before bonus, shortly after po? have you ever taken position? If you like a stock but you know it will be cheaper in 2 months, the wise thing to do is to wait and buy it cheap. These are all examples of timing the market. This is nigeria and your selling, holding, buying will always be more effective with proper timing. Its not just a traders thing.
Even warren Buffet, in quoting his mentor Ben Graham said that its timing and pricing that can give the extra edge to an investor.

Cadbury and Wema are different. Cadbury overstated profits.
While we can accuse Wema of gross sloppiness and inefficiency of investor relations, cadbury's accusations which are being heard in the law courts center around illegal result manipulation and deceit.

gidson12:

@ Temmie10
wats your problem abi the man na your papa, What the hell has he done in your 4ken life
that you feel other are talking rubbish, 4 Christ sake are you even an American to be at all concerned,
or you wan just show yourself, guy let other express them self and don't condemn their Opinion as rubish,
after all the guy is an asshole
thats from me, Bite me

hahahaha now i know Bush has really hurt your feelings deeply.
Btw i hope you dun have family in Iraq, that would explain your irate hatred for the man you've not met
Next time, try to use mo swear words, your four lines had too few
cheers

@wanaj0
Its all a question of risk profile and personal investing objectives. A calculated risk at best is still a risk albeit a safer risk.
NGC and flour mills may seem safe bets BUT they are no way the best stocks in the market, come a year's time they will not record the most gains in capital appreciation. Its a high risk high reward play.
Some invest in the market to get slightly better than fixed deposit returns, others look for much higher returns. Objectives are simply different, hence risk taking will also be different.

A few days ago, my broker made a mistake, misread my instructions and sold mbenefits at 3.62, i was furious even though 3.62 still yielded profit.
Now its 3.00 and dropping, i am planning a dive in again with all smiles. I like that sector because its always got activity and euphoria that i can take advantage of. I wouldn't be happy at all if i have been holding flour mills for the last few months. Its a stock that i can always take position in when the time's right (and if i so decide, possibly at an even cheaper price), thr's no urgency/activity thr and to me, locking money in there at this time is like putting money in the bank except i am paying commissions.
Fundamentals tell us the important basics but timing (when to buy, when to sell, when to hold) is also of utmost importance too at least to someone looking for huge returns.
i am still a huge fan of banks because the liquidity is there, they know how to manufacture profits you dun expect time and again (access, phb, afribank etc) and the largest chunk of the nse cap is there, as well as transparency of info thanks to all the po prospectuses flying around,

@yodiyokun
Cadbury is not for the fainthearted o. While they have a good business model which may yet yield good returns, their case still dey court, and the demons of overstating profits are still hangin around

this is so typical of human beings.
Bush is literally the most powerful man in the world and what do we get?, a bunch of nobodies hiding behind a pc and cursing

Are you so much better than Bush?
By what standards are you judging the man?
Its okay to disapprove of some of his actions and post wisely about that like some have done but a lot of folks jus sieze the opportunity to rant out rubbish.

@Kenjo
even though i am not a big fan, i'll go with Dangote Flour ahead of nahco.

@all
Those that wanted to take positions in fundamentally sound zeniths, gtbs, mbenefits etc, Hope you are watching the market now,
Prices are looking more attractive everyday

@Tmoni
Shorting is very easy here in uk because of the very sophisticated market and presence of a lot of market makers.
The case in naija is different, things like short selling, options, stocklending are still a far cry.

@Easimoni

Welcome back, Needless to say you were missed.

@all
I just read japaul's prospectus. The offer looks decent enough and probably has my recommendation even though i had some minor issues with it. BUt then, there's a lot of trashy offers out there anyway. Its really looking like a case of picking the bad from the worse lots.

I noticed the company was overvalued all this while. For all the time leading to august or so when result was released, this company was a pipe dream. It was a company of almost 1.2 billion shares contrary to what the brokers, analysts, research houses were telling us about the 600m shares. I am sure the management of Japaul knew this and kept quiet, some brokers/analysts knew and happily left most of the sheepish market with silly information BUT i suspect many analysts were as misled too (like those at fsdh who still think lasaco's pe is 5!) and they in turn misled their clients. In fact shortly before the suspension, the company was trading at a forward PE of close to 40! The numbers look better now with the forecasts though. The fact that a report or data was provided by zenith securities, csl, vetiva, the nse or whatever alphabet soup does not guarantee that the data is true/correct, welcome to Nigeria.

there is still a lot of money to be made though, i just wanted to sound a note of warning to all fundamental purists

@Donne4real
Few questions before advice:
Do you have a good broker?
Is your broker guaranteed to execute your orders on the same day?
Do you have a job/other source of income that you can use to service the loan if the expected returns take longer than expected?

@vc2007
I am sure tmoni has handful of wema,
Besides i am not sure the wema climb has started, still bought some mo last week for 9.7
But you never know,
I am looking forward to the release of results which will be anytime in the next 2 months,

You def bought lasaco on a high, if na broker do you that thing, quit taking advice from that human being b4 he finishes you

@godenson
It would be weird to think that the po and rights will be offered at the same price,
Having said that, i have read the reports,
the offer comes out in abt 4 days, lets keep fingers crossed, clear cut facts will emerge,
i still expect the rights to be cheaper

@Tmoni
The reconstruction can take many forms. It might not be 2 for 1. Depends on what management thinks.
I would expect that reconstruction would take place around 8 naira or more rather 7, thats the game, they'll mark it up not down, and i wouldn't be surprised if artificial moves were involved. its very possible.

Do not buy diamond to average just yet. If you have extra cash now, hold it and watch, prices might yet get more mouthwatering

On the contrary it would be very unwise to sell your shares,
you have earned more than enuf return if you bought anytime before jan this year.
Take your certificates or whatever you have to a broker and let them sort the paperwork out for you,

@shigidi
that move is a real james bond,
Why pull out of wema in september ending?
Wanajo is right, there's more definite upside to wema than diamond,
if 22 is a safe bet on diamond, then there's very little incentive considering that commissions might bring your buy price to 18, 4/18 is 22%, the opportunity cost of a 14 naira wema is huge!!!

@tonmax
sterling is very interesting. they've got reconstruction coming, po coming. which is the good news,
Bad news: earnings are not strong and there's no dividend
I dun see much downside if any but its hardly the pick of the market

@Tmoni
when wema wins, i would call you to get my wine bottle, , this one that you are being reassured every minute

the story goes that Abramovic became interested in buying a football club when he watched man-utd play real madrid in champions league (4-3, anybody remember?), he enjoyed the entertaining soccer,
He bought chelsea and hired mourinho to win the champions league stylishly, Mr portugal did none, instead jose gave him the kind of soccer that brought only 24000 fans to watch chelsea play their last champions league match, and more than half of the 24000 booed their team,
the man did not do what he was hired to do, hence the sack

@shigidi

Price to book can be misleading.
I prefer to use it either as a supplement i.e if a company has a low pe, then a low price to book, it gives further impetus to the suspiscion that it is probably undervalued.
It can also be used in rare cases like Transcorp. Price to book basically just throws more light, it is not overly indicative except price to book is less than 1 which is almost none existent on the nse.

it appears preferential allotment in dangote has been reduced to 20%

@sienna
not just cause you dun believe in God, check all your posts here, you have made some not-pleasant comments about God, and thats not just abt your belief,

To those who have questions about the loss of loved ones, here's my 2 cents
the rain falls on both the good and the bad
It was and is still probably very painful,
Life is a roller coaster, highs and lows, wins and losses, huge highs and low lows,
However, the make up of human beings allows us to learn from adversity and become stronger,
The sufferings and losses we experience here remind us that the world we live in is not perfect, it is in fact very messed up,

@siena
sorry if you feel insulted,
But if i insulted your wife or someone dear to you, you would be very much pissed off at me,
Now when you insult someone's God, then you shouldn't be surprised you are insulted, you should expect it.
Btw Whatever you say about God really doesn't change or affect Him as you would soon find out, thats if you dun already know

@iyken
this is interesting because the application to NSE was categorically for rights of 9.50 and po at 10 naira.
If you are right, then that means they have changed the details,
The offer should be out in a week tho and we would be clear on the exact figures

@reverend

weak and uneducated? spare me, i guess you are the almighty strong and well educated then, you kid yourself
I'd really like to know what you and your cohorts here believe in if you dun believe in God.
How was this world created, how did we come to be?, by a big explosion? by evolution of monkeys or what other gists has science brainwashed you with?

Even if you decide to play the fool for science, at least respect the opinions of ppl who believe otherwise, more than 60% of the world believe in a spiritual and more powerful force over the affairs of men, and we are not forcing our beliefs on you.

@siena
you asked, "Why doesn't God make the world a perfect place?"
i am asking you, Why should He?, is He your santa claus?, have you lived a perfect life?, On what are your expectations based?, Does He owe you anything? Did He promise to make the world perfect? Why do you even think you/me/we deserve anything from Him given the way we lead our lives?

@diva4eva

the news is very welcome,
what what might happen if 201 billion is released to insurance companies, hope the managers don't run away on holidays
where did you get this information?

i have a million questions,
but the first would be, "Why do you love me so much?"

Secondly would be "Why do you have so much mercy on ppl like infidel who blaspheme openly?"

@Wind
Many investment trusts allow you to start with as little as 50 pounds a month.
here's a page you might find interesting: http://www.asbsecurities.co.nz/section880.asp

tonmax:

@Temmi10, Frankiri, easimoni
What's with FCMB? are they coming with an IPO soon? It's been put on suspension for a while?
Is it a good buy?

Yes they are coming with a po at 14 naira, very soon

@bibiking1

The only reason why stockbrokers are asked to capitalise to 1 billion naira is to ensure better protection in the long run for investors like you and me.
Even in the unlikely event that a broking firm collapses, the funds are secure so long as the firm you had the account with is licensed by the authorities. For protection, stick with large firms or bank brokerage firms. Those ones can hardly go burst even if capitalisation increases to 10 billion naira.
In any case, most reputable firms have already met the capitalisation. Those that cannot are currently raising funds, the business is too profitable.

@Tmoni
Wema has been on all sorts of rumours since the beginning of the year. News is good. No news is what we don't like. By my reckoning, the least i see for Wema is that it will still reach 14 naira. Diamond looks like a 23. If you add po factors, market sentiment or a resurgence of the market to these two stocks, we could be way higher.

@shigidi
what was the figure you got for the gtb eps the other time (after adding the gdr shares)?

@NBA
Thanks a lot.
I am impressed by the vetiva samples and i will be taking up an account with them.
Whats the minimum capital to start an account with them?

Oga Frank, i'm with you on this one.
It is unlikely that anything will come out of the house of reps issues.
What i see is a lot of ignorance on the part of the house of reps.
CBN directives, the so-called fss and the govt's financial reform package is what has put banks in a position where they have to raise more funds to survive, not just the lure of a po.
Economic sense will prevail, It is simple enough: Bank A with 25 billion naira cannot compete with bank B with 500 billion naira, and the last thing nigeria needs is another banking sector mess after all those we have seen in years past

MyPeace:

please any hope on LASACO assurance?  l bought it sometime ago at N3.25 and its been going down ever since.  Is there still hope  And this is my first time of venturing into secondary market, l wish l never did. 

Do not panic! Lasaco should come good. This time is just an interesting time for the stock. There has huge selling on lasaco beginning in May, hence the seeming price indiscrepancies coupled with the correction in the insurance industry in the said months. However the results are very very encouraging. If you try to read the last 10 pages of this forum, there's a lot of gist on lasaco, thats why i was silent initially
Hold on till around April 08 onwards at least when fye results will be out, you will probably be smiling then. Do not let the market force you to sell (except you really neeed the money). lasaco is bullish in the long term. You have not lost just because the price is lower today than when you bought it. It takes only 5 days of continous bids (5% gains everyday) to record a 28% increase in any stock price in the NSE. A lot can and should happen in the days ahead.

@enurayce
i will reply you later today. stuck in the office now.

@easimoni
I am missing you here. the market is looking very interesting. Give those kids ice cream, put on the cartoon channel, come here lets make money.
Our insurance stocks are coming good .
mbenefits closed on bid at 3.69 today.
got some ideas to bounce of you too.
I hope i have successfully lured you back

Actually if the certs come out in January, i would be surprised, thats only 6 months,
I expect it would take longer.