Sunday, November 30, 2008
Why foreign military intervention may be necessary in Nigeria- US analysts

By JIDE BABALOLA

The United States' National Intelligence Council has predicted a bleak future for Nigeria if certain identified indicators were not addressed before 2025.

The council comprises analysts, academic and other experts in the U.S

Presidency spokesman, Mr. Segun Adeniyi, refused to pick our correspondents call on Saturday and he did not respond to a text message on the issue.

Increase in the population of unemployed youths, growing availability of arms, climate change, declining agricultural production and religious extremism were seen as serious threats to Nigeria's future peace and stability.

In a prognosis of Nigeria's future contained in a 120-page report titled "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World", they predict an increasing likelihood of foreign military intervention to end the Niger Delta crisis and stabilise oil exports.

"Ethnic and political violence and criminal activity currently threaten a large portion of Nigeria's oil production. State failure in the key energy producing country may require military intervention by outside powers to stabilise energy flows", the report stated.

The observation is contained in part of the November 2008 document released by the NIC.

The report emphasised that serious internal conflict that was reminiscent of the Nigerian civil war "is not inconceivable" in Nigeria before 2025.

The report includes inputs from the Central Intelligence Agency and several other bodies that are active in analysing intelligence through networks that span the globe.

While the report also warned that the US' dominance in world affairs would likely reduce as multi-polar power blocs comprising increasingly affluent countries such as  India and China begin to assert more influence on global affairs.

For Nigeria, the document said threats of serious internal stability might result from long-existing but largely latent problems including religious extremism, youth unemployment, climate change and growing population.

"Unless employment conditions change dramatically in parlous youth-bulge states such as Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen, these countries will remain ripe for continued instability and state failure

"In those countries that are likely to struggle with youth bulges and weak economic underpinnings-such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Yemen-the radical Salafi trend of Islam is likely to gain traction. Types of conflict we have not seen for a while could re-emerge…

"The populations of already parlous youth bulge states-such as Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen-are projected to remain on rapid-growth trajectories. Pakistan's and Nigeria's populations are each projected to grow by about 55 million people¦"

According to the authors of the report, rapid climate change and increasing rural-urban migration in Nigeria and 19 other countries will affect seriously agricultural production and "sows the seeds for social conflict".

"The problem is that some of these are not small, geo-politically insignificant countries. Some-like Nigeria-we in the developed world rely on for needed resources.
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"Because of the encroaching desertification in the north, the religious clash between Muslims and Christians is heating up. Another Biafra-like civil war-only this time along North-South lines-is not inconceivable," it stated.[/size]

Predicting an increasing dominance of Islamic ideology in countries with Moslem population, the report expressed fears that radical Islamic beliefs of the Salafi doctrine would gain ascendance in Nigeria and other countries.

"In those countries that are likely to struggle with youth bulges and weak economic underpinnings-such as in Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen-the radical Salafi trend is likely to gain traction…"

"The challenge of Islamic activism could produce a more intense backlash of Christian activism. Nigeria, Ethiopia, and other places in Africa will remain battlegrounds in this sectarian struggle," the report added.


http://odili.net/news/source/2008/nov/30/406.html

"Because of the encroaching desertification in the north, the religious clash between Muslims and Christians is heating up. Another Biafra-like civil war-only this time along North-South lines-is not inconceivable," it stated.

Didn't Erelu predict this?. Its going to happen and very soon. Nobody wants to stay put with these cabals anymore. WE WANT OUT.

Predicting an increasing dominance of Islamic ideology in countries with Moslem population, the report expressed fears that radical Islamic beliefs of the Salafi doctrine would gain ascendance in Nigeria and other countries.

You see am?

These are propagandist projections being generated provide a an excuse for American jackboots on Nigerian soil. they're not going to happen. Nigeria will never witness civil strife on the scale of the Biafra genocide again. ever. Nigeria has always leant toward the third-world option for dealing with inept & kleptocratic civillian regimes. Its a retrogressive option, yes, but its a million times better than the complete descent into anarchy that the selfish Americans are advocating just so they can latch their vampiric fangs onto Nigerian oil wells. Military intervention in Nigeria, if ever it comes, will always be internal rather than external.

These are propagandist projections being generated provide a an excuse for American jackboots on Nigerian soil. they're not going to happen. Nigeria will never witness civil strife on the scale of the Biafra genocide again. ever. Nigeria has always leant toward the third-world option for dealing with inept & kleptocratic civillian regimes. Its a retrogressive option, yes, but its a million times better than the complete descent into anarchy that the selfish Americans are advocating just so they can latch their vampiric fangs onto Nigerian oil wells. Military intervention in Nigeria, if ever it comes, will always be internal rather than external.

I beg to differ. Nigeria is on the verge of collapse and a little push is what is needed now. If the northerners continue to smother southerners like they did last week, be rest assured that it will happen again. Gone are the days when we watch them kill and bury us in the name of allah.

Some time ago a similar analysis was released and trust our dimwit leaders all they could say was 'One Nigeria' and discard the report. Something tells me these americans with their usual foresight may be preparing for such eventuality while we with our myopic self-deluded atitude will ignore such critical information.

Some time ago a similar analysis was released and trust our dimwit leaders all they could say was 'One Nigeria' and discard the report. Something tells me these americans with their usual foresight may be preparing for such eventuality while we with our myopic self-deluded atitude will ignore such critical information.

If it is for good cause. I hope they don't invade us and force us into division because of our natural resources.

oh my God! ,
even foreign military are contemplating a coup

The only country that might require foreign intervention or invasion is "America".They should stop giving negative prediction about Nigeria and mind their own business.America has a lot of problems of its own both internal and external.
Nigeria is capable of solving its own problem.Other countries have done it in the past and I dont see any reason why Nigeria cant!!!

The only country that might require foreign intervention or invasion is "America".They should stop giving negative prediction about Nigeria and mind their own business.America has a lot of problems of its own both internal and external.
Nigeria is capable of solving its own problem.Other countries have done it in the past and I don't see any reason why Nigeria can't!!!

Guy are you sure about the bolded part

asha 80:

Guy are you sure about the bolded part

You mean separation is not the Ultimate SOLVE-ALL for Nigeria?

It's just propaganda. Where in d world's history hv u heard any country undergo civil war more than once. It's either once or a very long one. Besides just find out by asking hw many nigerians r ready 4 a civil war. Fela was right when he pointed this out.

@ASHA80
  Nigeria is indeed capable of solving its own problems, have you looked at countries like india, china,brazil and russia.Theses were countries nobody really give a chance for socio-economic survival

Russia: After the soviet union collapsed in 1991 russia was left in ruins,and was shattered into bits.The Americans came in and plundered their economy signally the end of the cold war,but in recent times we have all witnessed the re-emergence of russia into the world stage as socio-economic and political super power.

China. After the korean war in the 1950's china closed its borders for years, during this time they worked on various ways to put their economy back on track, they sent so many of its nationals to western nations to study and learn their technology.Today we are all witnesses to china economic growth,for a long time china has maintained a double-digit growth rate. China has the largest foreign reserve in the world even larger than America.

The list goes on, "I dont see any reason why Nigeria cant".The problem is that we are not yet ready!!!!

very funny, na only 5000 die for iraq abi? ok, no further comments

Just another excuse for America to indulge its neo-colonialist tendencies and increase its already vice-like grip on our economy. The preaviling mindset it Nigeria (both economically and politically) is very pro-Western, so it is very likely that our educated fools will welcome this violation of Nigeria's nationhood with open arms.

15 years after and we are still here. At least in legal terms. Going by nairaland alone, its obvious were are not one anymore. The level of inter ethnic/ inter religious hatred is astounding.

By the way, everything they mentioned is now worse. But we still persevered.

Prediction is quite correct.

Una go cry tire.

Useless homosexuals and drug addicts transgenders.

When white pigs who are supporters of Donald Trump just like the headless nob supporting Giringori Obituary invaded US Assembly and whipped the gay and lesbian lawbreakers there, why was there no military intervention?

E no go better for una Mama