It is squeaky bum time for many teams at the Euros. With the final group games in full swing, 8 of the 24 teams face the prospect of leaving the competition prematurely. Turkey and North Macedonia have already been eliminated while Italy, Wales, Netherlands, and Belgium have secured qualification for the round of 16 leaving 12 places up for grabs in the next round from 17 possible teams.

So grab your calculators and notepads, let’s find out which teams stand the best chance of qualifying for the next round and which teams might as well start saying their goodbyes.

Teams would have to finish in the top two places in the group to qualify automatically for the second round but since the expansion to 24 teams, teams have been afforded another route into the last 16 as one of four best third-place teams from the six groups. It was via this avenue that 2016 champions Portugal made it to the knockout round.

Teams tied on points will be separated first by the dreaded head-to-head rule which has become a staple in European football. Teams will be separated first based on the highest number of points gained between teams who are tied, and then the goal difference in only games between the teams in question followed by the number of goals scored in only games between the teams that are tied. This is a situation that Denmark, Finland, and Russia could face in Group B.

If there are more than two teams tied, the head-to-head rule is still applied in the same manner. If after the head-to-head rules are applied, two of the three teams are still level, then the head-to-head rules are applied specifically to games between those two teams.

However, some knots are even more difficult to break, just ask Alexander the Great. Even these criteria might not be enough to separate teams at the European Championships.

If the head-to-head rule fails to separate the sides, then the next tiebreaker to consider would be goal difference across all group matches and then goals scored in all group games.

If the teams are still deadlocked, then the total number of wins are considered. A rule specifically designed to separate teams who have had points deducted.

My personal favourite tiebreaker is the one which says that if on the last round of the group stage, two teams are facing each other and each has the same number of points, as well as the same number of goals scored and conceded, and the score finishes level in their match, their ranking is determined by a penalty shoot-out. (This criterion is not used if more than two teams have the same number of points.).

The penultimate divider is the disciplinary points total in all group matches with the team with lower disciplinary points finishing higher. Disciplinary points are awarded as 1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 3 points for a direct red card, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card.

If all else fails, then a Higher position in the European Qualifiers overall ranking is the final means for separating teams.

Group B

In group B, Belgium have already made it into the second round with two wins in their first two, but still need at least a point against Finland to secure their place as group winners. Finland are third in the group but a point against Belgium might also be enough to see them clinch at least one of the best third-place spots depending on results in the game between Denmark and Russia. Russia, also on three points, require only a point against Denmark while the Danes need a win with a healthy margin to wipe out their current -2 goal difference. A win for Denmark coupled with a Finland loss would see them qualify automatically as second in the group, if they can’t make it as the second-placed team, a healthy goal difference could help them scale through as one of the best third-placed teams.

Group C

Group C is more straightforward as Netherlands have booked their place as group winners and North Macedonia have been eliminated as the bottom team in the group so the second automatic spot will be decided by the game between Ukraine and Austria. Whichever team wins will be through as second place leaving the other to battle for the best third-place spot. A draw will see Ukraine finish above Austria as both teams would be level on points and goal difference but Ukraine have scored more goals than Austria. A draw could suit both with four points and a neutral (0) goal difference a healthy starting point to finish as one of the best third-place teams.

Group D

Czech Republic lead the way in Group D, but a loss against England could see their good start be only enough for a third-place finish. If England win and Croatia beat Scotland, then Czech Republic and Croatia will have to be separated by goal difference to decide who finishes second. A win for Scotland would better their chances of qualifying. A win for Scotland could see them go second on goal difference only if Czech Republic claim all three points against England. A draw between Scotland and Croatia would see both crash out as the two points total would be worse than the current fourth-best on the table of third-placed teams held by Finland who have already gained three points. A draw in the game between England and Czech Republic will see both teams qualify from the group. Czech Republic as group winners and England as runners-up.

Group E

Emil Forsberg’s penalty against Slovakia has been the only winning goal in Group E so far and has Sweden sitting pretty at the top of the table with four points. They play Poland in the last group game with the Poles needing a win to stand any chance of advancing. Sweden on the other hand can finish top of the group with as little as a draw. Spain take on Slovakia in the final group game needing a win to qualify automatically and a draw to stand a chance as one of the best third-placed teams. Slovakia’s opening day win over Poland and loss to Sweden leaves them needing at least a point against Spain to certainly finish in the top two. Anything less and they will need to hope and pray they can sneak into one of the spots reserved for third-placed teams.

Group F

Group F has lived up to its billing as a group to watch out for with even Hungary playing their part to shake up the group. After an unfortunate opening day loss to Portugal set them back, the Magyars redeemed themselves with a draw against reigning World Champions France which means that they could qualify from the group if they can *gulp* defeat Germany in their third group game. Against Portugal, Germany were in no mood to hand out favours as they romped to a 4-2 win and it is likely they will continue in a similar vein. They also need at least a point against Hungary to stand a chance as one of the best third-placed teams or three points to qualify automatically as one of the top two.

France could have qualified already if they had beaten Hungary in their second group game, but the shock draw means that they enter the final group game needing to claim points against Portugal to qualify for the Round of 16 automatically. A draw against France will help Portugal’s cause but if they draw and Germany beat Hungary, then they will have to settle for a third-place finish where four points and five goals scored (so far) should be enough to see them through.

SOURCE

Mynd44 , Lalasticlala , mukina2

I predict that this post will most likely hit FP on a sure 1.09 odd.