I HAVE been to Lagos just once but it was enough to convince me that if Nigeria ever got its politics right, it would become Africa’s biggest economy. It has always been a powerful political force on the continent but through years of mismanagement and conflict — especially in the oil-producing region — its economy has always disappointed.

Despite all the bad choices made by that country’s big men, who were influenced by the Cold War, there’s always been the potential for Africa’s most populous nation to overtake South Africa economically. US bank Morgan Stanley said last year that it would do so by 2020.

Being as competitive as I am, I like South Africa’s number one status — as I am sure many others do. So the thought of Nigeria actually taking over that mantle in my lifetime was, and still is, rather disconcerting.

The year 2020 seemed a very, very long way away — never mind that it’s just eight years — which gave me a degree of comfort that local economic conditions would improve in time to keep us ahead of the pack.

I had some level of confidence that the populist policy choices touted by the African National Congress Youth League and others would fade in time.

But the time frame for Nigeria’s ascension to the number one economy on the continent has shifted. Instead of 2020, London-based Capital Economics expects it to happen by 2014.

The forthcoming rebasing and revision of gross domestic product (GDP) data in Nigeria, "will change little on the ground, but it could leave the country on track to overtake South Africa as the region’s largest economy in 2014", the agency said.

Nigeria is set to release its revised GDP series at the end of next month, with two key changes. The base year for real GDP will be altered from 1990 to 2008 to better capture structural shifts in the economy, giving more weight to sectors such as retail and telecommunications. The second change will be improved methodology and surveying techniques.

As a result of the revisions, measured GDP in Nigeria could rise by up to 40% in nominal terms, Capital Economics estimates.

Following similar revisions in Ghana in 2010, the country’s GDP was shown to be 60% larger than initially thought.

The change to Nigeria’s GDP has just brought forward the inevitable. Nigeria’s higher growth rates mean we aren’t talking 2020 anymore. It’s here(2014).

The year I visited Nigeria was 2005 and at that time it was the South African economy that was the toast of the continent. China’s insatiable appetite supported the commodity "supercycle", along with our big trading partners in Europe and the US.

As a young black man driving through crater-like potholes in Lagos, I arrogantly wondered just when this economy would come close to being as strong as that of South Africa. Well, it’s around the corner.

Nigeria still has its economic challenges, such as corruption, but its higher growth rates and the slowing rates in South Africa have speeded up the handover. Most disturbingly, the words sung by one of Nigeria’s most beloved singers, Fela Kuti, are starting to ring true in South African politics: "Teacher don’t teach me no nonsense."

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EUROPE and its health have fallen off the radar as we in South Africa bleed from strike action in one of our most important sectors and in the US everyone’s eyes are on the election and the "fiscal cliff" — not to mention Hurricane Sandy.

But the uncertainty and concern over growth in Europe are still high; Tuesday’s data do not ease nerves either.

The common monetary union remains in a serious recession. The European Commission’s eurozone economic sentiment indicator declined to 84.5 from 85.2, driven by yet another serious deterioration of confidence in the manufacturing sector.

"A rebound seems unlikely before next year, when fading financial market tensions, an improving global environment, as well as slowly receding austerity should combine to allow the currency zone exit recession," said Berenberg Bank senior economist Christian Schulz.

Seeing as the state of the European economy feeds into the strength of the world’s biggest economy, the US, as well as emerging market economies such as China, we can lay to rest any hopes of a recovery in the global economy this year.

In the first quarter of next year, markets will be expecting to see some signs of improvement in the global economy. It’s pretty much the same way we felt towards the end of last year.