oyesola:
..That is it!!!

Is this the NCDC Chairman?

Zenith 25.60,chai

DOLLARTEX:
Zenith 25.60,chai

Not yet attractive

sellydion:


Not yet attractive

yes ooo

My Ogas in the house

i would appreciate if anyone help with source for past data on I&E windows daily volume / price

FMDQ only has current (i.e. todays) info

MARKET CLOSES WITH BULLISH ENGULF

Today, NSE market closes with a bullish engulfing candle. This is accompanied by nice increase in volume. Technically, this is an indication of a temporary reversal. Looking ahead, the market needs to overcome resistance around 40500 - 41000 (chart 2) before a longer uptrend could be established. Else, bears could resume duty if this resistance proofs to be strong for the index.

Chart 3 is the monthly outlook of the market, if tomorrow last trading day in May could be bullish and we have a pin-bar on the monthly chart, then this will be similar in pattern to 2014 when the year started bearish and lasted for another 4 months before the appearance of the pin-bar which marked the start of another 2 month rally before the heavy fall.

Something must be special about MAY - 30/05!

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

There had been a few debate on whether the company TRANSCORP is of a good investment.
Personally, and for good reasons too, I have always had my reservations on the coy but at 1st glance, it appears that management have now become more efficient and are very much in line to exceed their earnings and growth YoY.
...and so I decided to take a deeper and critical look at the coy to see if indeed there can be any real basis to draw up some concrete inference based on their YE 2017 and Q1 2018 result.

A few run down;

▪ Remarkable growth in their energy segment: Trancorp power which is clearly the key driver of earnings for the group witnessed a strong YoY growth, occasioned by an increase in available capacity which rose by a staggering approx 39% from 505MW to 701MW. ...this is just less12% from the company's target of 800MW, which would see it achieve an incredible 25% supply of total power consumption in the country !!
That to me is damn right outstanding !!
▪ The company is also seriously working on devoloping their oil block OPL 281 following the production sharing contract (PSC) entered into with the NNPC. ...indications from the Note in their result supported by a recent statement by the CEO lends some measure of credence to this.
▪ The company grew their operating profit by near 26% YoY. PBT & PAT bouncing back from loss positions in the proceeding year. ...with PAT skyrocketing by an alarming 1,042.20% from a loss of N1.126b to a gain of over N10.6b for YE 2017, while Q1 saw PBT & PAT soar by over 242% & 261% from approx N1.7b & N1.5b to almost N6b & N5.4b in that order.
▪ A fine growth in turnover saw it rise by over 35% from near N59b to over N80b in 2017 while Q1 2018 saw a further 66.8% increase QoQ to over N26b. ...showing a sustainable pattern for the coy.
▪ Retained earnings also came in good with an increment of near 18% to approx N32b despite an increase in total assets to over N285b following from more investments in property, plant and equipment and the impact from trade & other receivables.
▪ Although some might consider ROAE & ROAA low given the level of interest yielding debt that was used to acheive them, but there was a strong improvement YoY to 11% & 3.7% in both indices. ...again showing a sustainable path.
CoS was also relatively ok at 54% especially when u consider the rigour that's usually associated with their core stream of income.
▪ Management were also fairly efficient in improving on their total asset turnover by near 10% YoY, while Q1 saw total asset & net asset strengthening by 20.8% & 15% respectively.

My few worries:

▪ TRANSCORP currently has a debt to equity ratio of 118%, which is well above the industrial average of less 30%. This means that shareholders funds carry a little risk weighting. ...put differently, the company would find it a bit difficult to pay off/settle their debt obligations assuming they become due right now. Apparently the company had used more debt to finance fixed assets during the 2017 calendar year.
This in my view, was a bit unhealthy.
▪ The news of a planned divestment from their agro-business segment TERAGO, could likely reduce their earnings channel particularly now that the FG is looking to explore & drive up opportunities in the country's Agric sector.
▪ Issues surrounding the high capital intensive nature of the business, high finance cost & the likely effect of FX market volatility.

However, having given a recourse to management's efficiency and discounted for my little worries, Its clear that TRANSCORP is now selling at a sweet discount from fair price. I see an upside potential that can well make up for the impact from any downside risk.
Based on Q1 the coy returned 10k more profit/share than it did QoQ.
With a Q1 earnings yield of near 8% and a book value of N2.63, I have a Fair Value of N3.35. ...this presents a whooping 164% discount from today's closing price of N1.27.
I therefore rate TRANSCORP a strong BUY.

NOTE: This analysis is purely result driven and should not be interpreted to mean any sort of recommendation.
DD still advised as always pls.

My Verdict: Follow ur instinct

sellydion:

Not yet attractive

i fear you oo ,not yet attractive,lol

BullBearMkt:
MARKET CLOSES WITH BULLISH ENGULF

Today, NSE market closes with a bullish engulfing candle. This is accompanied by nice increase in volume. Technically, this is an indication of a temporary reversal. Looking ahead, the market needs to overcome resistance around 40500 - 41000 (chart 2) before a longer uptrend could be established. Else, bears could resume duty if this resistance proofs to be strong for the index.

Chart 3 is the monthly outlook of the market, if tomorrow last trading day in May could be bullish and we have a pin-bar on the monthly chart, then this will be similar in pattern to 2014 when the year started bearish and lasted for another 4 months before the appearance of the pin-bar which marked the start of another 2 month rally before the heavy fall.

Something must be special about MAY - 30/05!

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

All me I know is that there is no way six consecutive months will be red from Feb.
This one na gut o

Agbalowomeri:


All me I know is that there is no way six consecutive months will be red from Feb.
This one na gut o

...it has happened before - July 2014 to January 2015 (7 months) all red & during great depression 2008 - 2009

BullBearMkt:

...it has happened before - July 2014 to January 2015 (7 months) all red & during great depression 2008 - 2009

That's the second half of the year; I mean with the current economic conditions

Agbalowomeri:


That's the second half of the year; I mean with the current economic conditions

Guy nothing to worry about just watch as events unfold at NSE then u will no if possible or not

2008-2009

11 straight months of back to back losses.

The index went down from a peak of 65000 levels to a low of 21000 levels representing a 209% decrease; the worst being Dec '08-Jan 09 when the index lost 47% in one month. Chai

May we never experience that kind of portfolio erosion ever again.

aremso:



Guy nothing to worry about just watch as events unfold at NSE then u will no if possible or not

Guy chill, we still get at least one or two more green months this year

rationalmind:
2008-2009

11 straight months of back to back losses.

The index went down from a peak of 65000 levels to a low of 21000 levels representing a 209% decrease; the worst being Dec '08-Jan 09 when the index lost 47% in one month. Chai

May we never experience that kind of portfolio erosion ever again.

Arithmetic na very hard thing for person like me wey go night school

Agbalowomeri:


Arithmetic na very hard thing for person like me wey go night school

No worries, Onegentleguy will come to the rescue

Even if the months closed negative, it doesn't mean there were no small small bulls at all in between.

In 2014, the index closed green for 6 consecutive days from November 10 - 17, then 7 consecutive days from December 18 - 30

BullBearMkt:

...it has happened before - July 2014 to January 2015 (7 months) all red & during great depression 2008 - 2009

This one was a global meltdown

rationalmind:
2008-2009

11 straight months of back to back losses.

The index went down from a peak of 65000 levels to a low of 21000 levels representing a 209% decrease; the worst being Dec '08-Jan 09 when the index lost 47% in one month. Chai

May we never experience that kind of portfolio erosion ever again.

DOLLARTEX:
Zenith 25.60,chai

back at Dec levels
d weekly chart is in sync wt d banking Index
. . like Agba said, dis is or cud be a deep correction
lol

DOLLARTEX:
Zenith 25.60,chai

There's still time to wait though ...

Agbalowomeri:


Arithmetic na very hard thing for person like me wey go night school

Instead of correcting the guy, you dey throw Olumo rock at him.

@rationalmind, it is :

(21k - 65k)/ 65k = ~68% fall and not the 209% fall you wrote.

BullBearMkt:

...if you don't belief me, google it and find out the percentage of those making money in the financial market. Statistics have it that only 10% (especially short term traders) of people actually makes money. That is minority

Gbam!!! Over correct.

locodemy:


Will same google tell you how many of us that made it during the January bull?

Loco only need the truith now.

People made and some may have lost it while thinking that the market will continue to rise.

After a hiest, you need to rest. Even the money sef suppose rest. Those times you do nothing!!!

But most people still want the money to work. Don't you know that money sweats? allow the money to cool off under mattress. When im body don dey itch am, you send am go work again.

There are times in life, you just do NOTHING!

BullBearMkt:
MARKET CLOSES WITH BULLISH ENGULF

Today, NSE market closes with a bullish engulfing candle. This is accompanied by nice increase in volume. Technically, this is an indication of a temporary reversal. Looking ahead, the market needs to overcome resistance around 40500 - 41000 (chart 2) before a longer uptrend could be established. Else, bears could resume duty if this resistance proofs to be strong for the index.

Chart 3 is the monthly outlook of the market, if tomorrow last trading day in May could be bullish and we have a pin-bar on the monthly chart, then this will be similar in pattern to 2014 when the year started bearish and lasted for another 4 months before the appearance of the pin-bar which marked the start of another 2 month rally before the heavy fall.

Something must be special about MAY - 30/05!


PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

nice one
one thing is likely , there will be a bounce
d quality of the bounce will set d tone going forward .
nbst

locodemy:


Will they be truithful?
If truely they added following following their technical charts,they should be in life supporting machine by now especially fxuser.

LOL I STILL SEE THEM HERE AGAIN TALKING LIKE NOTHING HAPPENED.

rationalmind:
2008-2009

11 straight months of back to back losses.

The index went down from a peak of 65000 levels to a low of 21000 levels representing a 209% decrease; the worst being Dec '08-Jan 09 when the index lost 47% in one month. Chai

May we never experience that kind of portfolio erosion ever again.

Why?

That is when money will be made. You go sell your house and key into a good company and you will be warming up to go into retirement early.

The Bearish run of the market is a very surprising move. With the election cycle coming then expect some more bearish trends only if the government policies and news coming out from the centre is positive

fxuser:


back at Dec levels
d weekly chart is in sync wt d banking Index
. . like Agba said, dis is or cud be a deep correction
lol

It will rise before it falls again. Maybe rise for a week or two and people's mindset will be that things are well, it will start to fall.

RabbiDoracle:


People made and some may have lost it while thinking that the market will continue to rise.

After a hiest, you need to rest. Even the money sef suppose rest. Those times you do nothing!!!

But most people still want the money to work. Don't you know that money sweats? allow the money to cool off under mattress. When im body don dey itch am, you send am go with again.

There are times in life, you just do NOTHING!

Sir, does it means that long term investing no longer works/advisable. Am reading an investment book that was recommended here "101 investment lesson from the wizards of wall street, and most of the wall street wizards advice that investor invest for long term.

RabbiDoracle:


It will rise before it falls again. Maybe rise for a week or two and people's mindset will be that things are well, it will start to fall.

Of course two weeks bull don do

brandable:

Sir, does it means that long term investing no longer works/advisable. Am reading an investment book that was recommended here "101 investment lesson from the wizards of wall street, and most of the wall street wizards advice that investor invest for long term.

It works, just make sure you buy a good company at 15% dividend yield
Then you can go to sleep

RabbiDoracle:


It will rise before it falls again. Maybe rise for a week or two and people's mindset will be that things are well, it will start to fall.

i'm tilted towards ur thinking also
a nice bounce before bearish continuation
wud be nice to be very wrong here