pluto09:



In my own opinion, there is nothing special about dangote cement. There is a drop in gross profit.
They just increased PAT by accounting abracadabra, tax accounting... I am definitely not a fan

And insurance company, those profits can disappear by next quarter....

@ Sir Pluto I understand ur reservation but after revisiting the prints in the financials, l still maintain that DANGOTE CEMENT deserves to make the list of GOOD coys based on its H1 2019 result.
Like I always say; There is no such thing as a perfect result. With a coys financial print, the driven inherent VALUE is derived by weighing in on the good or pros(improvements therein) against the bad or cons(downturn surrounding it) over a specified period of time.
...and where the former exceeds the latter(adjusting for risk), a margin of safety can be drawn... which would invariably determine the VALUE to be taped from.
This is why I always advise that financial prints be interpreted by looking at several key factors as a COLLECTIVE and not just 1 or 2 single input in isolation.
With DANGOTE CEMENT' H1 result, it looks like u had focused only on the cons, without the deserving consideration to the pros.

1st off, part of the big problem that DC had(comparing H1 2018/2019) was that of cost MANAGEMENT and OPTIMIZATION.
Cost savings was particularly low... With cost of production, energy cost and finance cost eating deeply into gross margins.
Well, am sure u saw that CoS declined by over 650bps... with production cost(cost per ton) down 300bps parving way for an over 54pbs expansion in gross margin.
Yes the rise in EM/EPS was aided by a lower tax expense, but the bigger boost was chiefly from a sweeping decline in net finance cost(over 71% over H1 2018) spurred by a drop in fx related losses.
Elsewhere, cost savings from energy ensured that the coy spent 14% less money than it did over the same period of last yr. ...and with the installation of 2 new gas turbines in 2 of the African countries it operates, more funds will most likely be saved from utilizing coal as an alternative source of power(this is key).

So u see; It is this cost saving measures(coupled with an improved cashflow) that resulted in the growth in PAT(by 44%) and not necessarily accounting/tax abracadabra as u put it.

Bottom line: With DC H1 result, there are cons no doubt, but the pros are of a more worthy consideration. ...which is why current price still paints a fine value behind it, and maintains a buy rating for us.(FVE @ N215)

DISCLOSURE: DC is presently not a part of our portfolio.

DISCLAIMER: NOT to be infered to as any sought of recommendation. ...Pls do well to read through my signature below.
My advice? ...Just follow ur instinct.

@ Sir meshpips, reading thru ur posts here, I see why u have been criticized for what could've been helpful inputs.
The problem isn't that u don't talk sense. ...it is that ur talking seems to be chiefly defined by the one motive of wanting to make money off members.
Of course u can make money by getting acquainted with someone u meet here or anywhere else, but it has to come naturally, after building a reputation for competence and efficiency and a good foundation of trust in between.
2 of the persons I manage their portfolio are members here.

A persons VISION might be good, but once it is driven by personal motive and smeared with suspicion, their MISSION loses value and eventually dies in time.
When u pursue EXCELLENCE, success will almost always naturally follow. But 1st u need to be selfless to achieve that. ...and if u truly wish for that, then u urgently need to retrace ur steps.
It would also be nice if u'll learn to properly sieve ur post to exclude certain clauses that could paint u in bad light, before putting them up here.

There are lots of persons who have contributed a lot to this platform. Perhaps even much more than u can ever imagine.
The things u've put up here aren't entirely new. Take my word for it; there are folks here that are more than well rounded in them.
This platform is full of very smart fellows who are distinctive in various professional facet of life, so it'd be out of place for one to assume that u need them less than they need u.
The reason for the seeming attack on ur person by some fellows here is because ur pathways seems to distract from the real aim of this forum. ...we are all here to help each other.
I sense u may not really have bad intentions. Unfortunately though, ur actions and inactions have painted u that light. ...that is what u need to change.
Of course, u can keep up with ur contributions, but change ur pathways.
How? Just rework ur mindset on why u are here, and be SINCERE at doing that.

Just a candid piece of advise my dear.

Regards.

@onegentleguy, thanks for taking out time to write.

I appreciate your candid view and would see how I can do as you have said.

Thanks again.

I knew ETI will bottom-out this morning

Are the FUGAZ scared of releasing their result?? I thought they used to be the first to drop results?

meshpips:
@onegentleguy, thanks for taking out time to write.

I appreciate your candid view and would see how I can do as you have said.

Thanks again.

My Pleasure Sir !!
...Glad u didn't misrepresent my intention.
I look forward to a better and more seasoned contributions from u !!

Cheers.

OBAGADAFFI:
I knew ETI will bottom-out this morning

Which of the oracles did you consult?

Agbalowomeri:
Olodo rabata

Lol.

swilo:


Which of the oracles did you consult?

Agbalowomeri

swilo:
Which of the oracles did you consult?

Definitely not our oga RabbiDoracle. Maybe na Lancee wey still be apprentice.

PharmAlfred:
Are the FUGAZ scared of releasing their result?? I thought they used to be the first to drop results?

F has dropped it remains UGAZ

swilo:


Which of the oracles did you consult?

If it is not the one that lives in Turkey and remotely works for NRC, any other Oracle na counterfeit

DOLLARTEX:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/26968_THE_INITIATES
which one be this again.

I surprise the day I saw that name too, say which kind coy be this.
Seems the confra too don list on NSE, end times things, people beware.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 30 JULY 2019

MSCI still keeping a clean slate. Downward momentum in the market is slowing down. Looking at the results released so far, most has been within our expectation, very interesting!!!

Let us see how the expected result for Dangote Sugar will be?

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget

OBAGADAFFI:
Agbalowomeri

Error 404.

OBAGADAFFI:
I knew ETI will bottom-out this morning

Bottom-out ke

Agbalowomeri:


Clearly ETI is poised to win the next 200% race for us
We watch carefully like the Felis catus

Remember this.

ETI is doing (3.75%) this morning

Has Mbenefit released their result, this one its gaining today? Maybe its insider stuff as usual.

OBAGADAFFI:
Remember this. ETI is doing (3.75%) this morning

Anyway I'll go with Agba on this, I dont think it has bottomed out with the kind of bids/offer I'm looking at on their table.
Agba has 'dined and whined' with oga Oracle, so I wouldnt doubt him.
Dont mind my error message, na joke.

Mcy56:

Anyway I'll go with Agba on this, I dont think it has bottomed out with the kind of bids I'm looking at on their table.

It is gradual.

Agbalowomeri:


Bottom-out ke

Not that Bottom o

OBAGADAFFI:
It is gradual.

I sincerely hope so.

OBAGADAFFI:
I knew ETI will bottom-out this morning

The day is still young o,real trades happen between the hours of 1- 2.19pm.

onegentleguy:
The past few days has seen me receive a handful of mails over the 2018 FP of FIRST BANK. ...with quite a few of those asking of my opinion on whether its a good buy.
Well, without giving a clear cut answer to that, I'd prefer to highlight a few noticeable worries and allow folks 'to have the last word' with their decision-making.

A brief:

-The bank made a huge loan write-off of over 180B, yet saw its NPL expand above 1350bps from approx 22.5% in 2017 to near 26% in 2018. ...this is not a good sign.
With key loans in its book including a 24B exposure to etisalat, and over 4.5x that amount to Atlantic energy, a near 41% of the total write-off figure can not be accounted for within the spheres of its published result. ...now that calls for some serious concern.
Again, I am worried about the banks qualifying capital in proportion to its loan. With CAR contracting by well over 270bps to ~17.2% despite the forbearance from the CBN over the full implementation of IFRS 9 in that line.
...but for that forbearance, CAR as at FY 2018 would've printed far lower(a deceleration of near 400bps to ~10.6%) from the banks 2017 print. ...a figure, so NOT befitting of the banks international status.
The interpretation of this is that 1st banks risk asset measured against its loan remains clearly UNHEALTHY.
The banks RE position also cast some measure of doubt over its ability to maintain or up its current low dividend pay out in the mid term, following an over 97% drop from near 170B in 2017 to just 4.4B in 2018. ...this is even more so given that the banks statutory reserve also declined by near 43B, feeling the heat from the new guide on reporting standard.
-On the profitability front, earnings from running the bank(operating income) actually went down YoY(by ~700bps) and QoQ(~250bps) behind an over 14% cut down in deriavable/net interest income. ...with PAT MARGIN mainly driven by an over 40% YoY or approx 54% QoQ drop in loan loss provision.
Discount that, and u'll see that the bank was only able to deliver a meagre ~24k deriavable earnings(EPS) to its shareholders in Q4 2018.
- Elsewhere, a combination of a higher interest expense and increased CoF(cost of fund) @~881bps and 340bps respectively, on the back of a ~750bps YoY drop in interest income line, ensured that the banks asset quality and yield contracted. ...with the latter pressured down by over 11%.
I am also less impressed with the print accross its key revenue and earnings line. ...particularly their ROAE, ROAA, EBITDA MARGIN, REVENUE MARGIN and EM.
Sure there are a few positives. But these cons are not to be taken lightly.

My verdict: The bank is still struggling with a combination of weak and bad assets which has ensured a strongly difficult route for a clear growth trajectory.
...with efficiency ratios suggestive of a less than impressive performance in both their loan driven front and that of their investment channels.
FIRST BANK should have a place in the portfolio of only those with long term investment horizon. ...but clearly not dividend growth investors.
That said, the estimated beta value of the bank @ well above unity(1) and the industrial average shows that sentiment is still tilted on the side of a healthy patronage(vol).
In contrast though, it does appear that the 'belief system' on the part of investors has been quite weak. This is even more true considering that the coys equity price has stayed solidly below its 50 sma in the short-mid term, while its 200 sma prints even much higher. ...referencing a clear reservation on the part of retail investors and an indifferent/weak romance/belief on the part of FMs, FPIs and DPIs.
With FBNH therefore, caution should be the watch word !!

From where am standing, its relative 1st tier peers, UBA and ACCESS @ current mkt prices presents a clearer and greater MoS deriavable value to tap from, and so remains better options ahead of 1st bank.

NOTE: This piece is strictly on the premise to aide with striking the RIGHT balance between the pros and cons of 1st banks 2018 FP. ...It should therefore not be infered as any sought of recommendation.

My advise: Pls follow ur instinct.

aremso:


F has dropped it remains UGAZ

Yes FBNH H1 2019 financial print was released yesterday.
It was a poor outing from it though, in line with our view on the coy(see the post above)

Like I said then, its peers(access and uba) are far better picks @ current prices than fbnh given any expected return from dividend cashflow and cap appreciation in the short to mid term.

But then again, this is speaking strictly from a result driven perspective and no more than that.

Salah.

Valueinvestor:

The day is still young o,real trades happen between the hours of 1- 2.19pm.

What is the possibility of ETI going below previous low.

OBAGADAFFI:


Not that Bottom o

Please show me which other bottom dey shoot out

Agbalowomeri:


Please show me which other bottom dey shoot out

OBAGADAFFI:


Agbalowomeri

This one cracked me...

Mcy56:

Definitely not our oga RabbiDoracle. Maybe na Lancee wey still be apprentice.

Sis Mercyllicious eku ise oo

lancee:



Sis Mercyllicious eku ise oo

That name is a franchise
Don't tamper with it

OBAGADAFFI:


What is the possibility of ETI going below previous low.

Honestly ETI should be a promising stock,but I don't seem to understand its action these days(guess its been affected by the general bear).I had to sell all my holdings at 9.50(of course at a loss),hoping to re enter when things stabilize.Although I don't aim to catch its exact bottom(not the type of Agba's bottom),judging by the look of things,and price action,maybe when it starts hovering around the same spot (at 8.00) for weeks like zenith is doing now at 18.45,we can then say it has bottomed out.
Anyway the most important,thing to me about the stock is that it is out of the woods

lancee:
Sis Mercyllicious eku ise oo

Lol. Una still dey confuse me with mercyllicious this 21st century? That one na the senior wife o.

Reminds of bigass too. The two of them just disappeared like that. I'm sure they'll be following this thread in ghost mode.

Abeg, mercillicious and bigass, if you dey read this message, help me deal with yayira well well there, dont give her seat and she must be cooking free food for you from her portfolio moni. She sabi insult people but she no fit take am.