Agbalowomeri:


A broken clock is right twice day
Abeg I am not insinuating that somebody is broken o

emmanuelewumi:



He is sceptical and I tried to encourage his scepticism

Best advice for him.

lancee:



Got u sir ..No emotion ..Just a process of wealth transfer way i see it

Absolutely my Oga. Trump about to announce travel restrictions to and from Europe (Applicable to United States Citizen and Resident aliens). Traders should trade facts not hope. Good luck everyone

Another one flexing muscle...

Godisfaithful:


Absolutely my Oga. Trump about to announce travel restrictions to and from Europe (Applicable to United States Citizen and Resident aliens). Traders should trade facts not hope. Good luck everyone

You must have been burnt severely in the past that made you change to this new moniker.Nevertheless,you still wake up at night scared of your own shadow even with the faith attached to it.Recieve your healing in Jesus name

emmanuelewumi:



Nothing is impossible, the market can be irrational.

3 years from now some people will wonder why they didn't buy Zenith when it was offered at N13.00, some people suggested km 9.
It is good, will continue to buy in tranches till it gets to that price

I think the Km 9 people are most probably on the side of probabilities... Let me break it down as ff:

For our stock mkt, if there is one thing I fear more than corona virus is the oil price crashing and its attendant consequences on our FGN budget, not even Naira devaluation (cos that would naturally show its ugly head after)

Generally, whilst the relationship btw currency devaluation and the stock mkt is complex and is far from direct, the relationship btw d oil price and our stock mkt is glaringly a positive correlation as we have witnessed numerously.

That said, the bottom line issue is the oil price and whether FGN will reduce the oil price budget benchmark to $20 to balance the budget cos it is obvious it is not sustainable on current $ form and they now need more Naira for every dollar, even to meet the recurrent expenditure expectations (not even CAPEX requirements). If the unthinkable happens (very likely re. Oil output war) and oil price budget benchmark is reduced to $20, then na real mkt scatter.... Just imagine what the new $ rate would likely be for govt 2 at least balance d budget. Gbese!

Zenith (the best stock at the moment) , for instance, would be expensive on current form. N10 might be the new resistance price. Target entry price - single digit, 20% max lower from N10. Same repricing scenario, if not worse, applies for other value stocks. My earlier advice - Wait for King Meffy! Don't fight the Emperor and moreso, don't buy this dip yet, let the dip goes deeper, besides the uncertainty in the mkt is crazy for now and as you know mkts don't like uncertainty one bit esp the one that they can't really assess yet, like the double whammy we have now (Cov-19 and Oil Price crash).

Just chill and let the uncertainty subsides and prices stabilize, then you unleash... Any buying now is just largely speculative... Stay away from the mkts for now till Meffy shows up, try recalibrate your strategy when away and more importantly, stay away from this platform so that your strategy wouldn't be corrupt or be suboptimally spoonfed re. entry/exit decision esp with Alhaji Rabiu's in-your-face bearish rambling, which to me, is just unnecessary overpricing the worst--case scenario.

Anyway, V-shaped recovery still expected once d mighty storm is over! It isn't Armageddon, like the 2008 credit crisis & over-leveraged systemic damage, Alhaji & Co are ascribing this to be. Once over, pent-up demand from consumers would kick in, folks would start traveling again, companies would resume production, planes would start flying, oil demand would start accreting as a result, boom - earnings growth.... The rest will be history with new set of billionaires on the block re. wealth transfer!

And if by any chance, your fingers are twitching and feel u might miss out on a possible rally, relax, second boat will show up (d more assuring one), and historically speaking, it always does.. Independent thinking, the koko in this dire global mkt situation. Just my 2k mkt opinion re. trading with conviction!

The virus to be afraid of on this platform is that of lengthy talks. Keep it simple and short (KISS).

Godisfaithful:


Absolutely my Oga. Trump about to announce travel restrictions to and from Europe (Applicable to United States Citizen and Resident aliens). Traders should trade facts not hope. Good luck everyone

how does that affect the earnings per share of NEM insurance next week?

Marlianvestor:


I think the Km 9 people are most probably on the side of probabilities... Let me break it down as ff:

For our stock mkt, if there is one thing I fear more than corona virus is the oil price crashing and its attendant consequences on our FGN budget, not even Naira devaluation (cos that would naturally show its ugly head after)

Generally, whilst the relationship btw currency devaluation and the stock mkt is complex and is far from direct, the relationship btw d oil price and our stock mkt is glaringly a positive correlation as we have witnessed numerously.

That said, the bottom line issue is the oil price and whether FGN will reduce the oil price budget benchmark to $20 to balance the budget cos it is obvious it is not sustainable on current $ form and they now need more Naira for every dollar, even to meet the recurrent expenditure expectations (not even CAPEX requirements). If the unthinkable happens (very likely re. Oil output war) and oil price budget benchmark is reduced to $20, then na real mkt scatter.... Just imagine what the new $ rate would likely be for govt 2 at least balance d budget. Gbese!

Zenith (the best stock at the moment) , for instance, would be expensive on current form. N10 might be the new resistance price. Target entry price - single digit, 20% max lower from N10. Same repricing scenario, if not worse, applies for other value stocks. My earlier advice - Wait for King Meffy! Don't fight the Emperor and moreso, don't buy this dip yet, let the dip goes deeper, besides the uncertainty in the mkt is crazy for now and as you know mkts don't like uncertainty one bit esp the one that they can't really assess yet, like the double whammy we have now (Cov-19 and Oil Price crash).

Just chill and let the uncertainty subsides and prices stabilize, then you unleash... Any buying now is just largely speculative... Stay away from the mkts for now till Meffy shows up, try recalibrate your strategy when away and more importantly, stay away from this platform so that your strategy wouldn't be corrupt or be suboptimally spoonfed re. entry/exit decision esp with Alhaji Rabiu's in-your-face bearish rambling, which to me, is just unnecessary overpricing the worst--case scenario.

Anyway, V-shaped recovery still expected once d mighty storm is over! It isn't Armageddon, like the 2008 credit crisis & over-leveraged systemic damage, Alhaji & Co are ascribing this to be. Once over, pent-up demand from consumers would kick in, folks would start traveling again, companies would resume production, planes would start flying, oil demand would start accreting as a result, boom - earnings growth.... The rest will be history with new set of billionaires on the block re. wealth transfer!

And if by any chance, your fingers are twitching and feel u might miss out on a possible rally, relax, second boat will show up (d more assuring one), and historically speaking, it always does.. Independent thinking, the koko in this dire global mkt situation. Just my 2k mkt opinion re. trading with conviction!

Apt analysis.

Biafran4life:
You must have been burnt severely in the past that made you change to this new moniker.Nevertheless,you still wake up at night scared of your own shadow even with the faith attached to it.Recieve your healing in Jesus name

Oga it is a virtual world here...there’s no need to flex muscle. Anyway I received your prayer In Jesus name. And pray the same for you too sir

Here's the yearly chart I used for GTB's analysis back then.

The third touch of the demand trendline which happens to be in confluence with the 2015 closing price is the lowest possible I see GTB doing for this year 2020.

That should be the 16.XX price handle I spoke about earlier.

In my opinion anywhere from 19.4X - 16.XX is an excellent buy for GTB.

From that entry, the first target will be around 40 or 41.XX price handle.

Many times I hear people say that technical analysis cannot work for the Nigerian stock exchange yet many of the oyinbos that trade our exchange use TA extensively.

One of the foremost technical analyst for equities in Nigeria who also is a chartered stockbroker was trained by Trevor Neil a few years ago. His career took a new turn from that point onwards.

Just incase anyone would like to check out who Trevor is, here is a link:

https://www.technicalanalyst.co.uk/trainer/trevor-neil/

Let's always remember that the most expensive stock on our exchange is far less than $5 or $6 which is very cheap as compared with say US equities.

All the best guys!

Everyone should just say a prayer for the world. And say goodbye to bull market for sometimes. Very scary moment but this too shall pass. Don’t trade emotions. Bulls and Bears makes money...pigs get slaughtered. Trade carefully, it is a bearish outlook!!!! Trump just spill the beans with Europe...

Equities Lose N426bn as Index Crashes to 23,572.75 Points
https://businesspost.ng/economy/equities-lose-n426bn-as-index-crashes-to-23572-75-points/

Asian Equities Tumble as Investors Await Government’s Stimulus Measures
https://businesspost.ng/economy/asian-equities-tumble-as-investors-await-governments-stimulus-measures/

European Stocks Close Mixed as Trump Bans Travel from Europe
https://businesspost.ng/economy/european-stocks-close-mixed-as-trump-bans-travel-from-europe/

Impact of Coronavirus, Oil Price on Nigerian Capital Market Worries SEC
https://businesspost.ng/economy/impact-of-coronavirus-oil-price-on-nigerian-capital-market-worries-sec/

CSCS Helps Unlisted Securities Market into Positive Territory
https://businesspost.ng/economy/cscs-helps-unlisted-securities-market-into-positive-territory/

Crude Oil Sheds 4% as Saudi Eyes Extra 1mbdp Production
https://businesspost.ng/economy/crude-oil-sheds-4-as-saudi-eyes-extra-1mbdp-production/

Okada/Keke Ban: Lagos to Flood Roads With Buses in April
https://businesspost.ng/banking/okada-keke-ban-lagos-to-flood-roads-with-buses-in-april/

Marlianvestor:


I think the Km 9 people are most probably on the side of probabilities... Let me break it down as ff:

For our stock mkt, if there is one thing I fear more than corona virus is the oil price crashing and its attendant consequences on our FGN budget, not even Naira devaluation (cos that would naturally show its ugly head after)

Generally, whilst the relationship btw currency devaluation and the stock mkt is complex and is far from direct, the relationship btw d oil price and our stock mkt is glaringly a positive correlation as we have witnessed numerously.

That said, the bottom line issue is the oil price and whether FGN will reduce the oil price budget benchmark to $20 to balance the budget cos it is obvious it is not sustainable on current $ form and they now need more Naira for every dollar, even to meet the recurrent expenditure expectations (not even CAPEX requirements). If the unthinkable happens (very likely re. Oil output war) and oil price budget benchmark is reduced to $20, then na real mkt scatter.... Just imagine what the new $ rate would likely be for govt 2 at least balance d budget. Gbese!

Zenith (the best stock at the moment) , for instance, would be expensive on current form. N10 might be the new resistance price. Target entry price - single digit, 20% max lower from N10. Same repricing scenario, if not worse, applies for other value stocks. My earlier advice - Wait for King Meffy! Don't fight the Emperor and moreso, don't buy this dip yet, let the dip goes deeper, besides the uncertainty in the mkt is crazy for now and as you know mkts don't like uncertainty one bit esp the one that they can't really assess yet, like the double whammy we have now (Cov-19 and Oil Price crash).

Just chill and let the uncertainty subsides and prices stabilize, then you unleash... Any buying now is just largely speculative... Stay away from the mkts for now till Meffy shows up, try recalibrate your strategy when away and more importantly, stay away from this platform so that your strategy wouldn't be corrupt or be suboptimally spoonfed re. entry/exit decision esp with Alhaji Rabiu's in-your-face bearish rambling, which to me, is just unnecessary overpricing the worst--case scenario.

Anyway, V-shaped recovery still expected once d mighty storm is over! It isn't Armageddon, like the 2008 credit crisis & over-leveraged systemic damage, Alhaji & Co are ascribing this to be. Once over, pent-up demand from consumers would kick in, folks would start traveling again, companies would resume production, planes would start flying, oil demand would start accreting as a result, boom - earnings growth.... The rest will be history with new set of billionaires on the block re. wealth transfer!

And if by any chance, your fingers are twitching and feel u might miss out on a possible rally, relax, second boat will show up (d more assuring one), and historically speaking, it always does.. Independent thinking, the koko in this dire global mkt situation. Just my 2k mkt opinion re. trading with conviction!

You have softened your tone now

Now you are seeing reality. You are seeing the exchange rate pressure. Before you were saying we are magnifying things. Now see am.

The decapitation in US stocks, World markets and on Brent continues.

Next week, I expect unprecedented stimulus by the would to support economies.

Those who are not fearful should always place their bids at the lowest of every day. Thursday, Friday, Monday. Lowest of the day. Buy small small.

This is just an excuse. The cut should be progresive in nature. Not a one off fit all, anticipated bottom could be broken.

Must we wait till all gets bad before something is done. RUSSIA must bow by the time UAE joins they would sift the meeting closer.

robobo:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-russia-exclusive/exclusive-russia-to-opec-deeper-oil-cuts-wont-work-idUSKBN20Y2TJ

Godisfaithful:
Everyone should just say a prayer for the world. And say goodbye to bull market for sometimes. Very scary moment but this too shall pass. Don’t trade emotions. Bulls and Bears makes money...pigs get slaughtered. Trade carefully, it is a bearish outlook!!!! Trump just spill the beans with Europe...

Theirs were at all time highs. Ours dey low and still digging.

Buy 1 and keep getting everying for free.

Instead of make the whole world slow down, they will go to war with one country just to keep economies running after their unprecedented stimulus.

Like my friend Marlian said, any recovery will be a perfect V shape. I agree with that. I cant miss that. Rocket acceleration!

I told guys here that when it is time to sell, people will be carried away by the euphoria and stay on.

Then when it is time to buy, fear no go gree una.

There must be maximum fear for bulls to come. The fear is coming worldwide.

Imagine Zenith bank almost falling to 16 years ago Public offer price of N10.80 (2004). And you say you no go buy?

More negative news will be coming out worldwide.

Chibuking, where is your shares? Bring it out due to fear and let's buy

RabbiDoracle:


Thanks bro.

Stock picking is like hunting. You get as close to the hunt to get a clean shot. But people prefer to stay far away and fire shots sporadically. Then we need to have large cache of shots. Who has such? We all have limited funds.

We are doing what the Japanese call " Just in Time" in engineering. Higher efficiency, reduced losses, more profitability, rest of mind

#JIT

My Pleasure bro !!

I will advise u to ignore those who've chosen the path of destructive criticism without recourse to good reason.

As investors we might sometimes see things differently, but any Jack should know that divergent views are needed to better interpret the dynamic nature of the market and seek reward in between.
That said, I am of the view that every statement should be objective, unbiased and backed with proof. ...and this is something u do. At least u are mostly factual with ur assessment of things.
...an investor only needs to permute from within all side of the divide, and seek for a convergence btw those necessary inputs and their investment personality.

I personally know that u mean well.
Pls keep up the good work !!

Cheers

sellydion:
This is just an excuse. The cut should be progresive in nature. Not a one off fit all, anticipated bottom could be broken.

Must we wait till all gets bad before something is done. RUSSIA must bow by the time UAE joins they would sift the meeting closer.

Nobody will bow. Na those countries without reserves like us, Angola, Argentina, Iran, that will go and dobale to Putin. Brent must first hit 27 and below. Otherwise no rebound.

Putin is already asking for a meeting nah. We may be worse affected Russia is not immuned.

He understand that.

RabbiDoracle:


Nobody will bow. Na those countries without reserves like us, Angola, Argentina, Iran, that will go and dobale to Putin. Brent must first hit 27 and below. Otherwise no rebound.

rebekah2011:
Are we sure that the same level of dividend will be possible come next year? I am not that optimistic.

Sir, let next year come first nah.
That was same fear expressed concerning 2019 FYE last year by someone but the coys still performed up to expectations. Some even did better (UBA, Ucap, etc.).
We should be hopeful and prayerful instead. Nothing God cannot do.

RabbiDoracle:


Theirs were at all time highs. Ours dey low and still digging.

Buy 1 and keep getting everying for free.

Instead of make the whole world slow down, they will go to war with one country just to keep economies running after their unprecedented stimulus.

Like my friend Marlian said, any recovery will be a perfect V shape. I agree with that. I cant miss that. Rocket acceleration!

I told guys here that when it is time to sell, people will be carried away by the euphoria and stay on.

Then when it is time to buy, fear no go gree una.

There must be maximum fear for bulls to come. The fear is coming worldwide.

Imagine Zenith bank almost falling to 16 years ago Public offer price of N10.80 (2004). And you say you no go buy?

More negative news will be coming out worldwide.

Chibuking, where is your shares? Bring it out due to fear and let's buy

People will become overly afraid and assign 101% risk and zero reward to asset aquisation.
Already folks are pricing certain select coys as if they are about to go bankrupt. As though all but one branch of ZENITH is on fire and the banks asset base has largely disappeared.
WAPCO is been priced as though the virus collapsed their production.
In peoples minds, the COVID-19 virus is seriously feeding on coys shareholders fund, and about to usher in Armageddon !!

But those who understand the bit on how to detach fear from risk are about to hit it big.
That point of inflection is here !!

onegentleguy:


My Pleasure bro !!

I will advise u to ignore those who've chosen the path of destructive criticism without recourse to good reason.

As investors we might sometimes see things differently, but any Jack should know that divergent views are needed to better interpret the dynamic nature of the market and seek reward in between.
That said, I am of the view that every statement should be objective, unbiased and backed with proof. ...and this is something u do. At least u are mostly factual with ur assessment of things.
...an investor only needs to permute from within all side of the divide, and seek for a convergence btw those necessary inputs and their investment personality.

I personally know that u mean well.
Psl keep up the good work !!

Cheers

I buy stocks and sell without emotions attached to it.

Once there is a wild shout about market going higher and CNN starts to show how our market is the best market in the world, my dear just carry your kaya give somebody to hold for you.

However, once there is news of gloom (my best), and worldwide markets start to fall, I get overjoyed. Because I know excess money will be made.

Those who bought stocks higher and were buying are seeing stocks now at bargain prices, they are running. It will help depress stocks fof the cash heavy guys and we get it very cheap.

Once we are done, we just lie waiting and be satisfied with out DY. >25% and more bonanza coming.

A crocodile can eat once in 2 years. Eat and relax.

We go beat any devaluation.

230m units of Zenith at N10.85.

Obene Kwa Kwa!

Premarket:
Gtb: 52M offers at 17.95
Zenith suppliers not yet finished, 230M offers at 10.85.......Zenith around it's 16yrs low according to Oga Oracle......hhmmm.

Let's see how today goes again.......

onegentleguy:


People will become overly afraid and assign 101% risk and zero reward to asset aquisation.
Already folks are pricing certain select coys as if they are about to go bankrupt. As though all but one branch of ZENITH is on fire and the banks asset base has largely disappeared.
WAPCO is been priced as though the virus collapsed their production.
In peoples minds, the COVID-19 virus is seriously on coys shareholders fund, and about to usher in Armageddon !!

But those who understand the bit on how to detach fear from risk are about to hit it big.
That point of inflection is here !!

Most stocks that have not done 2018/2019 low, may do it o. So further fall is still there.

mendes911:

230m units of Zenith at N10.85.

Obene Kwa Kwa!

Buy small small.

The decapitation is what is happening.

The end is near.

There is no respite in view now. Let us pray COVID 19 is over, the more bad news the worse for oil and stocks.

Let us pray the world gets this urgly incidence behind her quickly.

mendes911:

230m units of Zenith at N10.85.

Obene Kwa Kwa!

Mcy56:
Premarket:
Gtb: 52M offers at 17.95
Zenith suppliers not yet finished, 230M offers at 10.85.......Zenith around it's 16yrs low according to Oga Oracle......hhmmm.

Let's see how today goes again.......

Pluto was laughing at me before.

Wait till Brent reaches 27.

However, the end is near. Na wetin bird chop e go carry fly.

RabbiDoracle:


I buy stocks and sell without emotions attached to it.

Once there is a wild shout about market going higher and CNN starts to show how our market is the best market in the world, my dear just carry your kaya give somebody to hold for you.

However, once there is news of gloom (my best), and worldwide markets start to fall, I get overjoyed. Because I know excess money will be made.

Those who bought stocks higher and were buying are seeing stocks now at bargain prices, they are running. It will help depress stocks fof the cash heavy guys and we get it very cheap.

Once we are done, we just lie waiting and be satisfied with out DY. >25% and more bonanza coming.

A crocodile can eat once in 2 years. Eat and relax.

We go beat any devaluation.

When to start buying is not far from reachable but at the moment it is blood everywhere. Even the street is not smiling. You remember I told you PUTS options is the best bet for now. When Zenith reach 9, I guess I will start buying...and bail out when the whole forum get flooded again with everyday bullish conversations...