emmanuelewumi:



That is a dangerous thing to do. Except if the person trades with a given amount of fund, when he makes more than the given amount the excess funds will be diversified into risk free assets that gives steady income eg real estate, money market, bonds etc

Eg if you are trading with N10 million and you were lucky to get a profit of N4 million, it is advisable to get the N4 million out of the market or your JIJO trading account and buy money market, bonds , real estate, or stocks with juicy dividend yield.

Don't make the mistake of increasing your trading capital to N14 million, if you must increase your trading capital to N14 million.

Make sure you have N14 million and above in other stable assets and income generating investments


If 70% or more of your Networth is in a JIJO trading account, that is bankruptcy, ill health and disaster waiting to happen

1kinggy:


Just curious, do we have any full time /day trader here? No 9-5 job, just stocks and other investments?

I wouldnt know but the way people react to short term price fluctuations here suggests a lot of people are only interested in trading.

Heanry:
interested

interested

rebekah2011:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/29719_WEMA_BANK_PLC._FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2020.pdf
4k dividend

Remains the best growth stock in the banking sector.
I remember when I was highlighting the turnaround potential of this bank(WEMA), at the time it was selling for 50k.
Some folks had their doubts until the stock rose to N1.08, delivering over 105% return at the time.
Sooner or later, this stock will be trading in the above N1 region.

Good that they increased dividend payout by approx 33%, which by the way, is just 30% off the group's EM.

It is well.

Please why is FBN so sluggish, even with good results?

Patience my friend, its only a matter of time. Market is shaking of weak hands as usual.

Thinkbigga:
Please why is FBN so sluggish, even with good results?

onegentleguy:


So I did a broad analysis(using several key variants) to look in on the possible Winners and Losers with the current events in play(covid-19 & oil price strain)... and I found out that the other antifragile coys(aside CAVERTON) are DANGOTE SUGAR, UACN, FLOURMILLS, MTN, PZ, GSK, NEIMETH(and other coys in the health sector), OKOMU OIL and PRESCO.(the 1st 6, particularly the 1st(DS) are superb)

While the likes of WAPCO, ZENITH, GTB, UBA, FCMB, FIDELITY, CADBURY, CAP, BETAGLASS and NB PLC are among coys I consider rubust(with BS/CFs that are strong enough to get through the current crisis).
Again I like the 1st 6, particularly the 1st 3.

For coys that would likely be losers(the worst hit), ALL OIL & GAS COYS(particularly TOTAL and OANDO), NACHO, SKYAVN, TRANSCORP HOTEL, TRANSCORP, VITAFOAM and UNILEVER. ...albeit with the least degree of impact on the last 2 coys.

The way to go;

Of the ANTIFRAGILE and ROBUST category of coys(10 each), it might be worthwhile to align ones portfolio along this 2 category @ a measure that fits ones personality and investment horizon.
...a 70-30% weighting on the former and latter respectively would be a great idea.
However, emphasis should be given to the best among them.

DISCLAIMER: NOT to be inferred to as any sought of recommendation. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

My advise: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

onegentleguy:


Great YE 2019 report from UACN...
Woeful report from UNILEVER...

On the latter, it clearly looks like the decision to engage a solitary...... at the end of H1 2019, following...... is beginning to show its adverse effects.(highlighted it here back then)

On the former, would like @ TLAX to note the post above.
...the content is looking likely to play out.
NOT surprised at the 10k dividend declaration. Any Jack who understands and can relate the thing about 'past and present position' to 'underlying growth' shouldn't have expected more.(actually thought there'll be none)
VALUE in the making !!
We continue to love UACN. ...BUY !!

On UNILEVER, I think that any price rise(possibly aided by current market sentiment) should be seeing as an opportunity for an escape route !!
...unless ur an investor with a long term horizon.

Analysis and details later !!

Mcy56:
Broker's Analysis - For Info purpose, not any sort of advice :

UNILEVER NIGERIA PLC Q1 2020
THE TOUGH GET GOING FOR A U-CURVE RECOVERY

Unilever Nigeria Plc published its Q1 2020 earnings report for the period ended 31st, March 2020, indicating a revenue of N13.329 billion vs N19.236 billion in the corresponding period of 2019. We noted [b]sales slowdown by 40.72%

Now ur beginning to see what we saw in UNILEVER.
See the 2nd post above.

The company is struggling along several key revenue and earnings line. ...they've had unfavourable payment terms and are still struggling to push sales despite the over 3x acceleration in expense line to support that.

I was suppose to include it on the list of antifragile coys, but I didn't(see the 1st post above).
While most of their product line are what u may consider as essential items(Lux soap, Knorr maggi cube, Close-up, Omo, Vaseline, Blue band margarine, Lipton tea... etc), the company made some mistakes in their marketing strategy, the aftermath of which was a drop in MARKET SHARE despite price stability. ...particularly in the food and home & personal care business units.

That mistake, coupled with a lack of innovation meant that consumers sought for alternatives with lower price points, while their own distributors struggled to push sales.
...the result? A glut/surge in inventory and a sharp fall in receivables. A combination of unfavourable business enviroment and excessive cost input(particularly overheads) meant that most of those receivables became non-performing, forcing the company to tighten credit terms. ...I expect this to pose some strain to earnings in the short term(see the 1st part in bold from 2nd post above)

Elsewhere, the company still has worries with cash obligations as trade payables increased without matching remittances, while the thing about funding mismatch meant that the group's book continues to be riddled with high interest debt.
Indeed, there are clear worries in UNILEVER, but let me stop here.

It is not all gloomy though. Looking at certain figures in their 2019 YE FP, I believe the company still have the cash, a robust product line and manpower to turn things around. Management only need to be more PROACTIVE and EFFICIENT !!
The equity price might rise but folks should note the last part in bold from the 2nd post above.

On a side note, PZ also did experience most of these struggles, but is currently in a better position(state of health) than UNILEVER.

DISCLAIMER: NOT to be infered as any sought of recommendation.
My advise: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

That rise would happen again. I have been watching and waiting!

onegentleguy:


Remains the best growth stock in the banking sector.
I remember when I was highlighting the turnaround potential of this bank(WEMA), at the time it was selling for 50k.
Folks had their doubts until the stock rose to N1.08, delivering over 105% return at the time.
Sooner or later, this stock will be trading in the above N1 region.

Good that they increased dividend payout by approx 33%, which by the way, is just 30% off the group's EM.

It is well.

You spend a lot of time here posting your view and analysis, with a lot of insight. I would like to let you know that I personally appreciate your input; please don't stop!

onegentleguy:




Now ur beginning to see what we saw in UNILEVER.
See the 2nd post above.

The company is struggling along several key revenue and earnings line. ...they've had unfavourable payment terms and are still struggling to push sales despite the over 3x acceleration in expense line to support that.

I was suppose to include it as an antifragile coy, but I didn't(see the 1st post above).
While most of their product line are what u may consider as essentials(Lux soap, Known maggi cube, Close-up, Omo, Vaseline, Blue band margarine, Lipton tea... etc), the company made some mistakes in their marketing strategy, the aftermath of which was a drop in MARKET SHARE despite price stability. ...particularly the food and home & personal care line of business.

That mistake, coupled with a lack of innovation meant that consumers sought for alternative and even lower price points, while their own distributors struggled to push sales.
...the result? A glut/surge in inventory and a sharp fall in receivables. A combination of unfavourable business enviroment and excessive cost input(particularly overheads) meant that most of those receivables became non-performing, forcing the company to tighten credit terms. ...which will pose some demerits in the short term(see the 1st part in bold from 2nd post above)

Elsewhere, the company still has worries with debt obligations to meet as trade payables increased without matching remittances, while the thing about funding mismatch meant that the group's book continues to be riddled with high interest debt.

It is not all gloomy though. I believe the company still have the cash and manpower to turn things around.
The equity price might rise but folks note the last part in bold from the 2nd post.

On a side note, PZ also did experience most these struggles but is currently in a better position than UNILEVER.

DISCLAIMER: NOT to be infered as any sought of recommendation.
My advise: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

1kinggy:


Just curious, do we have any full time /day trader here? No 9-5 job, just stocks and other investments?

Yes, same way some people trade forex and Cryptos everyday.

The see the ASI reversing towards the end of next week. What do you see?

OBAGADAFFI:


Yes, same way some people trade forex and Cryptos everyday.

That is a mentally, medically and emotionally tasking way of survival

He is a valuable member of this platform. We all respect and appreciate his selfless contributions.

Bomboclad:
You spend a lot of time here posting your view and analysis, with a lot of insight. I would like to let you know that I personally appreciate your input; please don't stop!

Good advice sir

emmanuelewumi:



Eg if you are trading with N10 million and you were lucky to get a profit of N4 million, it is advisable to get the N4 million out of the market or your JIJO trading account and buy money market, bonds , real estate, or stocks with juicy dividend yield.

Don't make the mistake of increasing your trading capital to N14 million, if you must increase your trading capital to N14 million.


If 70% or more of your Networth is in a JIJO trading account, that is bankruptcy, ill health and disaster waiting to happen

Make sure you have N14 Million and above in other stable assets ie not the stock market.

Tvegas:


My brother in 2009 my friend bought heavy units of UBA at N60 with the hope of selling at N80 same stock selling for N5 now. My friend is still alive today, he has picked his lessons and moved on.

Lesson1: Dont joke with fundamentals
Lesson 2: Never ever buy a good company that is overpriced .
Lesson 3: Keep your cash if you cant find value in the market,You must not always buy.

Irrespective of how scary things may look or get at the moment, there is nothing new in this market. Its a cycle,it will have winners and losers. Just make enough preparation to be on the winning side. I have been in meetings where current happenings as regards Oil crash have been discussed 18 months ago. Some have started preparations long ago.

Future results will also show investors that some companies have done scenario analysis and have prepared for this phase.

Nigeria will survive the current events, if there is anything special about this country Its that resilient spirit. The only problem is that even when we survive, we may still never learn our lessons to reduce oil dependency, restructure and curb corruption.

I endorse this post !!
...and folks should NOTE that part in bold. A good example is how GTBANK made billions of Naira from Fx revaluation gains in Q1 2020 !! ...over N8.5B just in the 1st 3 months of 2020.(a circa 220% YoY growth compared to previous period in 2019). What would've been a serious concern, turned out to be a benefit.
Why? Because they were well prepared for the thing about currency devaluation.
...they have a robust risk management framework in place, that always seeks to apply 2nd level thinking !!(I recall highlighting this here back then)

With that last sentence though, I just wish our leaders can hear u !!
Covid-19 will come and go.
...but the degree of the impact it leaves on us will depend on how well we learn from it !!

Selah

Mcy56, finally you here.....welcome; missed you!

emmanuelewumi:


That is a mentally, medically and emotionally tasking way of survival

Oga, I know some TA guys that do this everyday.

With profits after charges.

When you see Chams, Japul .etc. increasing by %5 -%7.

Na Dem Dem bi dat.

Bomboclad:
Mcy56, finally you here.....welcome; missed you!

Just tell me you missed the commentary. Lol.
There's nothing to comment on cos the market is just there, but one good thing is that it's not tanking and no panicking......
You mentioned reverse in one of your above comments, which of the reverse pls? Up or down?

The commentary represents you nah, so na you I miss.
Market is taking passengers, at one junction near Yaba; soon, it would be off.
I meant an upward reversal @ ASI. It is currently retracing temporarily and would be up again on or before Friday next week. Na so I dey see am for chart, so I am tryna give folks a sense of direction if none. However, I expect Banking stocks to continue with its current upward reversal thru to next week.

Mcy56:

Just tell me you missed the commentary. Lol.
There's nothing to comment on cos the market is just there, buy one good thing is that it's not tanking and no panicking......
You mentioned reverse in one of your a ice comments, which of the reverse pls? Up or down?

onegentleguy:


Remains the best growth stock in the banking sector.
I remember when I was highlighting the turnaround potential of this bank(WEMA), at the time it was selling for 50k.
Folks had their doubts until the stock rose to N1.08, delivering over 105% return at the time.
Sooner or later, this stock will be trading in the above N1 region.

Good that they increased dividend payout by approx 33%, which by the way, is just 30% off the group's EM.

It is well.

Ooin! You are doing well...

I appreciate the fantastic and selfless work that you do here.

I salute you. We are making money this year, meltdown or meltup.

OGG, jide ka iji

Bomboclad:
The commentary represents you nah, so na you I miss.
Market is taking passengers, at one junction near Yaba; soon, it would be off.
I meant an upward reversal @ ASI. It is currently retracing temporarily and would be up again on or before Friday next week. Na so I dey see am for chart, so I am tryna give folks a sense of direction if none. However, I expect Banking stocks to continue with its current upward reversal thru to next week.

OK then.
We pray so.

FBNH is supposed to be trading above N5 by now.

onegentleguy:


Now ur beginning to see what we saw in UNILEVER.
See the 2nd post above.

The company is struggling along several key revenue and earnings line. ...they've had unfavourable payment terms and are still struggling to push sales despite the over 3x acceleration in expense line to support that.

I was suppose to include it on the list of antifragile coys, but I didn't(see the 1st post above).
While most of their product line are what u may consider as essential items(Lux soap, Knorr maggi cube, Close-up, Omo, Vaseline, Blue band margarine, Lipton tea... etc), the company made some mistakes in their marketing strategy, the aftermath of which was a drop in MARKET SHARE despite price stability. ...particularly in the food and home & personal care business units.

That mistake, coupled with a lack of innovation meant that consumers sought for alternatives with even lower price points, while their own distributors struggled to push sales.
...the result? A glut/surge in inventory and a sharp fall in receivables. A combination of unfavourable business enviroment and excessive cost input(particularly overheads) meant that most of those receivables became non-performing, forcing the company to tighten credit terms. ...I expect this to pose some strain to earnings in the short term(see the 1st part in bold from 2nd post above)

Elsewhere, the company still has worries with debt obligations as trade payables increased without matching remittances, while the thing about funding mismatch meant that the group's book continues to be riddled with high interest debt.
Indeed, there are clear worries in UNILEVER, but let me stop here.

It is not all gloomy though. Looking at certain figures in their 2019 YE FP, I believe the company still have the cash, a robust product line and manpower to turn things around. Management only need to be more PROACTIVE and EFFICIENT !!
The equity price might rise but folks should note the last part in bold from the 2nd post above.

On a side note, PZ also did experience most of these struggles, but is currently in a better position(state of health) than UNILEVER.

DISCLAIMER: NOT to be infered as any sought of recommendation.
My advise: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

On UNILEVER, note that while fundamentals does not favour it at the moment, TECHNICALS does.

TA appears to signal a BUY for a short term reward on the stock. ...which was why I said that the price might still rise from here despite poor fundamentals.
In retrospect, a </= N11 entry peg might deliver a 20-45% range in ROI.
So if ur in for the short term, u had better put on ur TA guard. ...otherwise, stay on the side line.
However, long term investors can consider buying in bits as price drops to their confort zone.

Disclosure: UNILEVER is presently not a part of our portfolio. We will look to buy at the appropriate time.
Disclaimer: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of recommendation. ...pls do well to read through my signature below.

Selah

onegentleguy:


Remains the best growth stock in the banking sector.
I remember when I was highlighting the turnaround potential of this bank(WEMA), at the time it was selling for 50k.
Folks had their doubts until the stock rose to N1.08, delivering over 105% return at the time.
Sooner or later, this stock will be trading in the above N1 region.

Good that they increased dividend payout by approx 33%, which by the way, is just 30% off the group's EM.

It is well.

To this regard, is it ok to say that the bank should be trading higher than Aiico in share price?

samzepaparazi:


To this regard, is it ok to say that the bank should be trading higher than Aiico in share price?

NO !! ...at least for now.
If WEMA should trade above the current price of AIICO(80k+) tomorrow, it will be because its FVE projects it, and nothing more. Both coys are not in the same sector, so there's really no basis for comparison.

AIICO currently delivers more in earnings and will also likely pay more in dividends.
...I expect dividend pay out in AIICO to be near twice that of WEMA(circa 6-8k)

Good things are happening in that insurance coy.

Selah

aremso:



Do u invest in Alcohol making companies ?

In fact, I sold back the stock (Guinness) today at lost.

My faith is more important to me than the whole wealth of NSE.

Stocks with new 52 week lows
Guinness #18.90k
Ardova #9.55k
Skyway aviation #1.67k

veecovee:


In fact, I sold back the stock (Guinness) today at lost.

My faith is more important to me than the whole wealth of NSE.

Evidence sir

thebargainhunte:

Evidence sir

lol

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