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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mankind2024: 6:36am On Aug 31 |
If anyone thinks Total, PRESCO, OKOMU, JB, STANBIC, GEREGU, BUAFOODS, TRANSCOHOT, NNFM, NAHCO are overvalued, you have your own price, the rest of investors have theirs, and the world has its valuation as well. Some of these companies are trading at premium valuations. Their prices are determined by what investors are willing to pay, not by fundamentals alone. This makes the dynamic and irrational market very interesting. No one is forcing investors to buy them at their current valuations. Suffice it to say, some investors still see them as being undervalued. 2 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mankind2024: 6:39am On Aug 31 |
Thanks boss Alagbalaowo: |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BullBearMkt(m): 6:56am On Aug 31 |
Sunrisepebble:What do you mean by, he's Wale's boy from time? |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Laso09: 7:15am On Aug 31 |
Mankind2024: Valuation is dynamic in my opinion and I want to believe there is where you are mixing it up. A company can be overvalued this quarter and produce a superb performance in the next two quarters that will justify the new price. PRESCO, OKOMU, NAHCO have all produced results in recent times that could justify their new price and I don't think that can be said of TRANCOHOT. It is also pertinent to also note that a stock can stay overvalued or undervalued for a long time than any one can imagine. 6 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mankind2024: 7:24am On Aug 31 |
Well, the overvalued stock in your sight could be undervalued in another investor's sentiment. The good results produced by the aforementioned companies would not have justified their current value. The moment these companies started trending on social media, most especially on NSEMPA, investors began to direct sentiment and speculation towards them. This is the constant and dynamic truth. Laso09: 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Laso09: 7:24am On Aug 31 |
Mankind2024: History has a way of repeating itself. When the market has been bullish for a very long time, it is not uncommon for people to think that valuation doesn't really matter. Everyone feels invisible and believes price will continue to go up for ever not minding the underlying status of the listed companies. This is not new, it just the cycle that we are in, another cycle will come and story will change. 9 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Laso09: 7:30am On Aug 31 |
Mankind2024: There are different methods used in valuation that are generally acceptable as standard. Those don't respond to an individual bias. We are all at liberty to do and believe whatsoever we want. 6 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Raider76: 7:34am On Aug 31 |
How long did it take your portfolio to hit N50m? What did you start with? What was your biggest break? 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 8:15am On Aug 31 |
mikeapollo: Well you won't understand how these things work... So make I just dey observe developments |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 8:19am On Aug 31 |
megawealth01: Okay ooo. You may be ready right. I agree then. You must win this one. You cannot always allow me to win the argument. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 8:20am On Aug 31 |
HesInMe: This doesn't sound like a new person in the game. You are are smart in your write Kudos |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 8:22am On Aug 31 |
Mankind2024: π― |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 8:25am On Aug 31 |
mikeapollo: I love your teachability... @Mankind has even explained it properly without me knowing sef |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 8:34am On Aug 31 |
megawealth01: So, you are based abroad, not living in the organized chaos called Nigeria! No wonder! I talk am too. I now understand why you are always calm and not aggressive like the rest or some of us. This zoo can really do damage to the psyche of a man if he is not deliberate and watchful enough of the environmrnt as well as his antics and emotions. Oando must pay and make man happy! 2 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:01am On Aug 31 |
Laso09: I like your point of view. Let me chime in with my own understanding. Let's take a loaf of bread as an example: the value placed on a loaf of bread varies depending on who the individual is and where they're coming from. A very hungry person may value it highly since they need to quench their hunger quickly, while someone who is not as hungry may not value it as much. Similarly, some people may see it as large when they compare it with what they've seen elsewhere, while others may have a different opinion. Sometimes, many people may have similar views and push the value very high or very low. But, the FA person tries to quantify the value based on the properties of the loaf of bread itself. They may try to measure the caloric content and assign a number based on that, hence the idea of intrinsic value. I believe intrinsic value should be a range because there are many ways an item can be valued, and they may all give different valuations. Again, FA practitioners came up with the idea of margin of safety to address this variability. So, there is the intrinsic value and the consensus value. I think this is what makes FA in a nutshell. 7 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:04am On Aug 31 |
All this is dynamic o, both intrinsic and consensus value is updated based on new information. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mankind2024: 9:25am On Aug 31 |
In all models of valuation, both conservative and non-conservative, we must acknowledge the arrival of sentimental analysis, driven by technology. I can tell you that Nigerian investors had no access to live trading 12 years ago; we had to monitor stock prices in daily newspapers and news. I remember vividly sending buy orders to my brokers via email. Today, we are empowered with tons of information, participating actively in buying and selling. Some previously dormant stocks were revived from the graveyard and began to show life due to investor sentiment. Since no one has a verified crystal ball like the OANDO prophet Utuocha, we now use available tools to make fundamental analysis (FA) or technical analysis (TA) decisions, coupled with sentimental analysis, which Warren Buffett has acknowledged. The millennials and short sellers can punish the most undervalued stock and promote the most overvalued stocks, still smiling to the bank. Whether we like it or not, behavioral biases and sentimental analysis are inseparable and have come to stay while the market would always correct and defend itself. Laso09: 5 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 9:49am On Aug 31 |
I love matured engagements as these... This is RICH and I believe a lot are learning FAST 6 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by olig(m): 9:57am On Aug 31 |
@Laso09 Valid points. @Laso09 and other are valid also. I am still not clear about the dominant force in the Nigerian Stock Market. Still studying, observing, and "gambling". TA, SA, Valuation.... or sentiments and/or manipulations? The peculiarity of each market (NGX, JSE....) will determine which drive controls the market. All drives plays a role, but some are stronger than the other. I know the existence of Nigeria itself defies logic. That is why some conventional economic principles will not work here. Thank God for harvest season, CBN would have hike interest rates to 100% and food inflation would have kept increasing. So, some conventional methods and analysis might not work here. Still looking for what works Mankind2024: |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Laso09: 10:02am On Aug 31 |
Mankind2024: I totally agree with you that the market dynamic has changed and evolved over the year. I am not also disputing the fact that valuation is not the only metrics that determine prices. I respect some FA guys here who are doing some great jobs. Sentiment analysis/spiritual analysis, I have my reservation, thought I am not in a position to say they don't work. This is not the first time utuocha will be prophesying about stocks, he has had many failed promises in the past in the days of SMN, so his prophesies don't excite someone like me either failed or fulfilled. There is also a place for manipulation just like we have seen in some stocks. All in all, I respect other people's opinion about what works for them but I strongly disagree with the assumption that the concept of overvaluation/undervaluation is no more relevant in today's market. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 10:17am On Aug 31 |
Laso09: You equally have a huge point |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 10:33am On Aug 31 |
Mankind2024: Nice write up bro. You raised good points |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ololufemi: 10:39am On Aug 31 |
Streetinvestor2: My brother, good morning to you. Please tone down the rhetoric of using some abrasive nouns like sheep or even related verbs. I noticed you have been on about this. Though this is a faceless forum, such depicts some form of narcissistic behaviour which doesn't suit the personality of someone like you. You may decide to take my advice calmly or react negatively to it but, believe me that it doesn't hurt anyone to be there for their brothers and sisters. That sheep word you use on this platform makes one crin[url][/url]ge at certain personalities herein. I know people may have had their differences with certain companies in the past, you may also have your differences with people herein, but we should remember thatnit only takes some new news to make certain stocks turn the corner and become the toast and delight to others. One thing I have learnt in this world is to never judge a book by its cover and allow personal feelings override the good of a community. This is what highly learnt when some people advised others to buy stocks like Oando PLC or Chams PLC or NAHCO PLC or Veritas PLC or Zenith PLC or WAPCO PLC amongst others during Covid-19. As a matter of fact, Chams PLC which many are romancing today was vilified several years ago and the peoplw who gave recommendations on these stocks were attacked verbosely. Same thing with the Niger Delta Exploration Production Comapny which metamorphosed into Aradel PLC today. We can communicate our message without attaching verbose rhetoric to them irrespective of how we feel about the stocks being referenced. Kind regards and may the Lord continue to bless all of us. ππ½ 13 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 10:40am On Aug 31 |
PZ Cussons Nigeria Reports First Annual Loss In Years Amid Naira Depreciation https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/business-news/729664-pz-cussons-nigeria-reports-first-annual-loss-in-years-amid-naira-depreciation.html?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter I just don't want to say anything about PZ... They should just leave in PEACE |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 10:43am On Aug 31 |
Soonest UNITY BANK will be the toast of many INVESTORS for many months... Expect the unbelievable. Take position once suspension is lifted... GenerationalWealth might be loading in the COY It's going to be another bank that FGN will have special interest in especially in the area of farming... Bulaba will do all he can not to disappoint the north because of 2027... Many Northerns are heavily invested in that COY so nothing negative will happen there... Write this down somewhere... Few will take positions but many will queue up to have a taste of unity but by then it will be above #5... Just look at the transformation of WEMA... The possibility of UNITY getting to #10 is just matter of Mr Time and the profitability of the coy Read my past chats about how I kept shouting g"amble Oando" in the past when it was trading at sub #6 The beauty of this game is get in early and start exiting when the MM are now involved maybe you can lock some parts of your profits with them until they are done with their games A new dawn is here for UNITY BANK... No longer business has usual 5 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 10:57am On Aug 31 |
ololufemi:OK.My bad.I will henceforth reconsider. It was as a result of some persons thinking they can dictate what opinion you make here or you have to post what goes with thr narrative. It does not work with me.Thanks for your genuine presentation 12 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ololufemi: 11:00am On Aug 31 |
Streetinvestor2: I also strongly feel that the sheeps amongst us are usually the ones with major capital to invest. They have no time for analysis paralysis and just need to engaged to pull the trigger to reap bountiful results. I know one sheep who was engaged by Meshpip to buy Tesla during Covid-19 irrespective of the bricks and mud thrown during that time. He bought about NGN1,000,000.00 worth of Tesla then and it is worth over NGN500,000,000.00 when you consider the exchange rate changes, stock splits, etc that has happened over the years. People like Femi Ote$, Alison Dangote, Atedo Peterside, Tony Elumelu, Alhaji Rabiu, etc do not crunch numbers because of their personal deficiencies but they turn out to be like the C and D students in classrooms who create corporations that employ the A and B students. Let's be able to disagree with others respectfully towards agreeing on the same concept which is to benefit all on this forum. Some potential billionaires dey this forum and na just one single update fit turn am for them. Ultimately, na all of us go enjoy am and we should remember say nobody don carry all him or her loot go the afterlife o! It is meant to be shared with friends, families, acquaintances and good people with blessed hearts. ππ½ 10 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Panadee: 11:03am On Aug 31 |
Streetinvestor2: Nice one senior bros @Emir01 take note. 4 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 11:04am On Aug 31 |
I think Inflation of >>30% is a strong reason for this.. @Laso. I agree with you here. I think intrinsic valuation of some stock isn't a write off, but I think it takes a back seat due to economic effect as more people key into the market to beat inflation and at least keep their purchasing power by capital appreciation as they began the year. So a positive news from FA, TA SA, etc will always drive a stock higher than it should as more people look to beat inflation with a higher margin than the actual valuation price of a stock. Single digit inflation of between 2-5% will see more stocks correctly valued as valuation takes back the front row seat for most part of the year determined by dividend, debt level, bonus, retained earnings, expansion, and other FA metrics. @ Mankind, I agree with you on the submission below. retail participation as well as technology has increased the speed and awareness of information and demand side of stocks in the market, this increasing their selling price(valuation price). (irrespective of inflation) 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ololufemi: 11:05am On Aug 31 |
Streetinvestor2: ππ½ππ½ππ½ππ½ππ½ππ½π«‘π«‘π«‘π«‘π«‘π«‘π₯³π₯³π₯³π₯³π₯³π₯³ππ½ππ½ππ½ππ½ππ½ππ½ππΌππΌππΌππΌππΌππΌππ½ππ½ππ½ππ½ππ½ππ½π―π―π―π―π―π―ππΎππΎππΎππΎππΎππΎ Many thanks for the calm disposition you have decided to thank. I appreciate it even though we are faceless here. May love continue to reign amongst all of us here and may we be beneficiaries of the goodies the Lord has presented us through this platform. 8 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 11:15am On Aug 31 |
HesInMe:Sorry for quoting you.I guess you didn't get the joke.It is obvious the only thing you have picked from my previous post on oando was the noise that followed when I posted,e don cast.I guess you didn't see the posts when I was calling for oando buy with target of #20 and #30 in mind.And then I gave different reasons for the buy. I have never and will never post any thing manipulative to gain financially. Why will I even do that.Is it to gain 100M or max 200M.I have financial integrity in all my dealings which I took from my late father. And it stands no matter the odd.I can never be poor because poverty is a thing of the mind as long as you are alive. Then for your 700% you are doing well.As of yesterday I have 758.37%,586.10% and 519.86%.I can't wait for oando to do 2dollars lol.All I preach is the decision to buy,hold or sell should be your business after DD 2 Likes |
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