rmx:


Free market dictates petrol prices are higher , subsidy was distorting it , but people expecting prices to be lower and dangote to be the savior at the current exchange rate don’t know nothing about business or economics ,just look at the price of deregulated diesel by both dangote and importers , waiting for price to crash is wishful thinking also , just use the average for this year , and that’s around 75$ or so , at that price , it can’t be less than we have it now

pluto09:


I actually can see the naira appreciating.
The only way I think it can happen is by increasing oil production and not all this dangote refinery of a thing.

Lol, in fact, Dangote will be our savior and also save the Tinubu government. In 2023, refined products accounted for about 35 to 37% of Nigeria’s total imports in dollar terms (according to the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics).

Unless something else fills that gap, the dollar is bound to fall. If the dollar falls, the $74 per barrel will cost Dangote and other refineries less, which means lower costs for us as consumers. I haven’t factored exports of refined products into this, but with Bua and many smaller refineries expected to start operations soon, I’m hopeful.

ositadima1:




Lol, in fact, Dangote will be our savior and also save the Tinubu government. In 2023, refined products accounted for about 35 to 37% of Nigeria’s total imports in dollar terms (according to the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics).

Unless something else fills that gap, the dollar is bound to fall. If the dollar falls, the $74 per barrel will cost Dangote and other refineries less, which means lower costs for us as consumers. I haven’t factored exports of refined products into this, but with Bua and many smaller refineries expected to start operations soon, I’m hopeful.

You are very correct. The dollar will hit #1500 or less by December if the government are serious with recent pronouncements of willing buyer and willing sellers for crude related products.

You get the drift...

ositadima1:


Lol, in fact, Dangote will be our savior and also save the Tinubu government. In 2023, refined products accounted for about 35 to 37% of Nigeria’s total imports in dollar terms (according to the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics).

Unless something else fills that gap, the dollar is bound to fall. If the dollar falls, the $74 per barrel will cost Dangote and other refineries less, which means lower costs for us as consumers. I haven’t factored exports of refined products into this, but with Bua and many smaller refineries expected to start operations soon, I’m hopeful.

exchange rate stability is more likely it than a return to $1 to 1k...

it will be certainly a miracle if the NGN can do a reversal

ositadima1:


Give it time; the price will come down as the exchange rate drops, Shebi one analyst said that 1,000 naira per dollar is the the sweet spot , Also, the pressure on dollar reserves will ease, and hopefully, crude production will increase to offset the dollar lost by selling part of it in naira. I believe in the next six months to a year, we will see the naira appreciate.

This sounds like the typical Nigerian delusion!

Many of Nigeria’s delusional optimist analysts & commentators pegged dollar fair value at about N800 and many argued that local refining will reduce petrol price. Today we know better.

Even the talk of reduced pressure on fx will likely not materialize, and there will still be petrol scarcity with queues every now and then, like when Lokoja gets completely flooded and tankers cannot move across.

You truly don’t appreciate how messed up the Nigerian system is, such that those ideals simply cannot apply.

Let’s just celebrate the sentimental value that comes with ‘refining our crude ourselves’ and watch what transpires

KarlTom:
OandO. -3.45%
ETERNA. -8.52

Oando gently dropping to a JI-able bus stop.

Is tomorrow really a Court date, Oandites?
I want Delisting cloud completely blown away.

I don't care much about Results for now.
We're busy doing acquisitions and expansions;
Cementing our nascent status as Africa's top indigenous IOC.
The Results and positive financials will come later, and today's sceptics will come and buy from us at seller's price.

But we have to remain listed.

The dominance of $ over the ₦ is largely due to our OVERDEPENDENCE on the greenback: demand far exceeds supply.

DANGREFINE will give our ForEx a much needed reprieve...

When the citizenry will start enjoying the ₦ appreciation is what no one can categorically say.

We remain in hopeville

Tpharell:

This sounds like the typical Nigerian delusion!

Many of Nigeria’s delusional optimist analysts & commentators pegged dollar fair value at about N800 and many argued that local refining will reduce petrol price. Today we know better.

Even the talk of reduced pressure on fx will likely not materialize, and there will still be petrol scarcity with queues every now and then, like when Lokoja gets completely flooded and tankers cannot move across.

You truly don’t appreciate how messed up the Nigerian system is, such that those ideals simply cannot apply.

Let’s just celebrate the sentimental value that comes with ‘refining our crude ourselves’ and watch what transpires

If you are not ok with thr delusional optimist analysis etc.You expect us to accept your smart analysis and dooms day analysis abi.

zendi:

Oando gently dropping to a JI-able bus stop.
Is tomorrow really a Court date, Oandites?
I want Delisting cloud completely blown away.

I don't care about Results for now.
We're busy doing acquisitions and expansions;
Cementing our nascent status as Africa's top indigenous IOC.
The Results and positive financials will come later, and today's sceptics will come and buy from us at seller's price.

But we have to remain listed.

.I hope they don't postpone that one too

Honestly! I just had to overlook some previous posts...

No Nigerian professor of economics can come out boldly and give a projection of the $ v ₦ rate so why are we acting as if it is a crime to hope for something better...

Streetinvestor2:
If you are not ok with thr delusional optimist analysis etc.You expect us to accept your smart analysis and dooms day analysis abi.

RodgersAkpafu:
exchange rate stability is more likely it than a return to $1 to 1k...

it will be certainly a miracle if the NGN can do a reversal

It will

ositadima1:




Lol, in fact, Dangote will be our savior and also save the Tinubu government. In 2023, refined products accounted for about 35 to 37% of Nigeria’s total imports in dollar terms (according to the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics).

Unless something else fills that gap, the dollar is bound to fall. If the dollar falls, the $74 per barrel will cost Dangote and other refineries less, which means lower costs for us as consumers. I haven’t factored exports of refined products into this, but with Bua and many smaller refineries expected to start operations soon, I’m hopeful.

We all want the naira to appreciate but we should also be realistic with our expectations.
Yes, import bills will reduced but so also is our export earnings from crude oil.

megawealth01:


It will

we will see about that

NNPC Retail Outlets Adjust Pump Price To ₦998/Litre In Lagos, ₦1,030 In Abuja


https://www.channelstv.com/2024/10/09/nnpcl-sells-petrol-at-%e2%82%a6998-per-litre-in-lagos-%e2%82%a61030-in-fct/

pluto09:


We all want the naira to appreciate but we should also be realistic with our expectations.
Yes, import bills will reduced but so also is our export earnings from crude oil.

a cheaper dollar from a behavioural standpoint will make Nigerians splurge more on foreign products
for dollar to really have a reversal, there has to be a multi sectoral approach, not just looking at it via the oil sector

The thing about delusion is it keeps you perpetually waiting for something that will never come. Never! And it prevents you from being realistic enough to see the obvious

Tpharell:
The thing about delusion is it keeps you perpetually waiting for something that will never come. Never! And it prevents you from being realistic enough to see the obvious

right ✅️

Whole state governors are converting their allocations to USD, even the CBN alluded to that, but delusional people believe that somehow, the naira will ‘miraculously’ recover based on some textbook theory they read about in school.

NNPCL+PMS PRICE

Our hopes were raised at the turning of sod of Dangote Refinery. They deceived us into what the realities are today, a different ball game entirely...

Man inhumanity to man, why?

Tpharell:

This sounds like the typical Nigerian delusion!

Many of Nigeria’s delusional optimist analysts & commentators pegged dollar fair value at about N800 and many argued that local refining will reduce petrol price. Today we know better.

Even the talk of reduced pressure on fx will likely not materialize, and there will still be petrol scarcity with queues every now and then, like when Lokoja gets completely flooded and tankers cannot move across.

You truly don’t appreciate how messed up the Nigerian system is, such that those ideals simply cannot apply.

Let’s just celebrate the sentimental value that comes with ‘refining our crude ourselves’ and watch what transpires

I don’t respond to baseless arguments. Everything you wrote is unfounded and emotional. Please present facts or refrain from replying or quoting me. In my post, I presented clear facts—follow my example or get lost!!!

I wonder why you're here on a naira forum. Why not move on to USD and let us dreamers dream in peace?

Una buy dollar for 1,800, lol, una go cry me river, soon.

pluto09:


Have you factored in the additional 9+billions new share in calculating your EPS?
That being said,the possibility of a rally in share price is high in the short time as many may not be aware of the additional new shares.

you're a natural monkey dealer.

RodgersAkpafu:


a cheaper dollar from a behavioural standpoint will make Nigerians splurge more on foreign products
for dollar to really have a reversal, there has to be a multi sectoral approach, not just looking at it via the oil sector

It's called comparative advantage—you don’t need to manufacture everything. You just need to focus on what you excel at to thrive. Once Dangote starts exporting, you’ll understand what I mean—not just petrol, but also plastics, bitumen, fertilizers, machine oils, and raw materials for beauty products. More refineries are on the way.

Anyway, as I usually do, I’ll quote these posts at the right time to remind you.

For those thinking I support this una government. The truth is I haven't been in Nigeria for years now all my dealings in una country is through lawyers etc but truth be told, the dollar to naira rate is just artificial which will soon clear in the eyes of those living in Nigeria and hoarding USD

If you want to quote me just be CIVIL and some respect

ositadima1:



I don’t respond to baseless arguments. Everything you wrote is unfounded and emotional. Please present facts or refrain from replying or quoting me. In my post, I presented clear facts—follow my example or get lost!!!

I disagree with you on this one

I may not be as pessimistic as he is, but I won't totally write off his main premiae because I share the same sentiment.

As one with........ my experience
I believe I'm in a good position to give some insights on this matter

So here we go

As I mentioned in my preceding post, from a behavioural economics standpoint, Nigerians are a special breed of animals

One can use surface analysis and say for example, because oil imports is like 40% of the demand for forex, and we don't need to import anymore, therefore the naira will appreciate 40%

That looks good on the surface but economic realities, especially for a country like Nigeria would betray such arguments

Nigerians generally have a penchant for "the good life" and imported things
You really think our demand for other imported products won't go through the roof if there is a temporary pull back in the value of the naira ?

A lot of imported things have been suspended by Nigerians because the dollar has become somewhat out of reach
wait till there is a small pull back
that's one


Two, we have thousands of Nigerian youths who plan to flee Nigeria using many routes, one of which is the foreign studies route
let naira shed 25% and watch what happens in that space as well

What about banking professionals who have been "pauperised" because they can no longer afford foreign trips ?]

Add continued fiscal recklessness to the mix
it's even more messy.
And an ailing economy to boot ?
That's why I said that the naira will stabilise AT BEST at the current rate
maybe a 5 to 10% Max appreciation cos all these factors will interplay at the same time and push the price to a "settling point"

megawealth01:
For those thinking I support this una government. The truth is I haven't been in Nigeria for years now all my dealings in una country is through lawyers etc but truth be told, the dollar to naira rate is just artificial which will soon clear in the eyes of those living in Nigeria and hoarding USD

If you want to quote me just be CIVIL and some respect

This is not necessary sir
Most of us here are not naija based either
and tbh
it makes no difference

ositadima1:



It's called comparative advantage—you don’t need to manufacture everything. You just need to focus on what you excel at to thrive. Once Dangote starts exporting, you’ll understand what I mean—not just petrol, but also plastics, bitumen, fertilizers, machine oils, and raw materials for beauty products. More refineries are on the way.

Anyway, as I usually do, I’ll quote these posts at the right time to remind you.

I will do same
Let's watch and see what will play out in the next two years

I mean it will be great to see the naira appreciate significantly

My dividend income will make more sense in Nigeria for me to repatriate and chop here

But I am a realist
a 30% short term appreciation na mission impossible

But it will be nice to be wrong

RodgersAkpafu:


This is not necessary sir
Most of us here are not naija based either
and tbh
it makes no difference

Nwanne read the intention of my message. I'm not denying my country but just to state a fact that I ain't saying it out of PATRIOTISM

megawealth01:


Nwanne read the intention of my message. I'm not denying my country but just to state a fact that I ain't saying it out of PATRIOTISM

got it.

RodgersAkpafu:


I disagree with you on this one

I may not be as pessimistic as he is, but I won't totally write off his main premiae because I share the same sentiment.

As one with........ my experience
I believe I'm in a good position to give some insights on this matter

So here we go

As I mentioned in my preceding post, from a behavioural economics standpoint, Nigerians are a special breed of animals

One can use surface analysis and say for example, because oil imports is like 40% of the demand for forex, and we don't need to import anymore, therefore the naira will appreciate 40%

That looks good on the surface but economic realities, especially for a country like Nigeria would betray such arguments

Nigerians generally have a penchant for "the good life" and imported things
You really think our demand for other imported products won't go through the roof if there is a temporary pull back in the value of the naira ?

A lot of imported things have been suspended by Nigerians because the dollar has become somewhat out of reach
wait till there is a small pull back
that's one


Two, we have thousands of Nigerian youths who plan to flee Nigeria using many routes, one of which is the foreign studies route
let naira shed 25% and watch what happens in that space as well

What about banking professionals who have been "pauperised" because they can no longer afford foreign trips ?]

Add continued fiscal recklessness to the mix
it's even more messy.
And an ailing economy to boot ?
That's why I said that the naira will stabilise AT BEST at the current rate
maybe a 5 to 10% Max appreciation cos all these factors will interplay at the same time and push the price to a "settling point"

I no longer like discussing without facts, and I’m not theorizing.

Nigeria spent over 30% of its dollars on refined products, even when the exchange rate was below 500 naira per dollar. If you want the stats, they’re available from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics. After refined products, the next largest imports are sugar, some grains, cars, and large machinery, while consumer products made up about 0.5%.

So, unless you have contrary data, my question is: why didn’t Nigerians splurge to the extent that it became noticeable in the proportions when naira was less than 500? Please, facts only.