megawealth01:


Add news items on stocks/finance to it. I can help to be sharing the news from time to time

Thanks for offering to help —your support is amazing! 🙌 Adding news manually to the website could create extra stress in managing updates and maintaining simplicity while automating news will add complexity to the platform. For now, sharing news via social media might be a better, more efficient option in my opinion.

Capitas7:


You have created a fantastic product/resource here! And your energy is inspiring! You are doing an amazing job handling feedbacks and comments. All the best!

Thank you so much! Your kind words mean a lot. Na your support dey ginger me! God bless you! 🙏

I sold down my DANGSUGAR to 1000 units (placeholding insignificant units) for ease of rejoining its train in the future. BE was less than N17+, and I've been selling in tranches (earlier sales at N54, N40+) to increase holdings in Access, Presco and most recently UBA.
For an investor (to whom dividends are a compounding factor), the opportunity cost of holding Dangote sugar will become apparent when it is dividends season and companies with good payout ratios enjoy market reaction as a bonus.

Capitas7:
I sold down my DANGSUGAR to 1000 units (placeholding insignificant units) for ease of rejoining its train in the future. BE was less than N17+, and I've been selling in tranches (earlier sales at N54, N40+) to increase holdings in Access, Presco and most recently UBA.
For an investor (to whom dividends are a compounding factor), the opportunity cost of holding Dangote sugar will become apparent when it is dividends season and companies with good payout ratios enjoy market reaction as a bonus.

Emotional investing is one great enemy. It is good to read that many investors respect and trust Mr Aliko Dangote, and I do too. But the integrity of a man (if true) should be separated from the real situation of his ventures when reality signals stress. Dividends go plenty to buy back when the coast is clear.

Even though I missed selling at N80 in January 2024 to make >4x my initial capital, the more painful loss was that Naira value moved from around N800-N900 to about N1300-N1400 within the same period.
#TimeValueOfMoney
#RealValueOfMoney

emmanuelewumi:




I found out that 95% of the gifters are investors. I don't know why, probably investors are more appreciative than traders


That is a discussion for another day

As a grateful student of your "stocks investing" and life lessons" school, I'd like to mention these:
1. For those of us whose only platform is Nairaland, it is difficult to ask PA Emma for personal details (account numbers included) for obvious security reasons. Example: I shared here about how you shared your phone contacts with me a little over a decade ago when I was fresh out of NYSC starting my investment journey, and we spoke for over 10 minutes on the phone. That was you welcoming a stranger. Today, newcomers cannot access you through DM's - you're still a welcoming mentor, but Nigeria changed your security measures (aiye ti le).

2. Appreciation to some of us includes going to read the books you suggest, coming back to show how we've grown, and referencing your wise and selfless contributions. For instance, one might consider quoting your past analyses to give credits (unofficial intellectual property) to you - the true rewards for a teacher is seeing students grow.

Long story to defend we audio grateful persons, yet not denying that not everyone appreciates selflessness. We appreciate you and other great investors and traders here sir! Can't mention the names in the endless list of FA and TA Ogas, but we know you all!

emmanuelewumi:




Total Energy should make EPS of about N120 in 2024, don't be surprised if the stock price gets close to N1000

.

emmanuelewumi:




Total Energy should make EPS of about N120 in 2024, don't be surprised if the stock price gets close to N1000

Total 9M/24 eps is #80.8, PAT is 27.4b
Q4/24 PAT forecast is 5.7b, so eps will be #16.8
FYI 2024 eps will be #97.6.
Average 5 years P/E is 7.4
Therefore, I see a price of #722
That is a %7.8 upside to the current price of 670

SonofElElyonRet:


You sure say una no go still come lament say e don re-reset go down again? 🤔

Dangote sugar and MTN should be a long term investment for any smart investor. Forget the reset or no reset. It's going to be a bang.

emmaodet:


Total 9M/24 eps is #80.8, PAT is 27.4b
Q4/24 PAT forecast is 5.7b, so eps will be #16.8
FYI 2024 eps will be #97.6.
Average 5 years P/E is 7.4
Therefore, I see a price of #722
That is a %7.8 upside to the current price of 670

At N97.6 EPS it should get to N900 or thereabout. I don't use average 5 years PE.

I use justified PE based on the return on equity, earning growth and the spread between the Return on Invested Capital and risk free yield of about 20% on FGN bond

Ding

Here we go
Monitor real time data here https://stockbubbles.com.ng/

Capitas7:

As a grateful student of your "stocks investing" and life lessons" school, I'd like to mention these:
1. For those of us whose only platform is Nairaland, it is difficult to ask PA Emma for personal details (account numbers included) for obvious security reasons. Example: I shared here about how you shared your phone contacts with me a little over a decade ago when I was fresh out of NYSC starting my investment journey, and we spoke for over 10 minutes on the phone. That was you welcoming a stranger. Today, newcomers cannot access you through DM's - you're still a welcoming mentor, but Nigeria changed your security measures (aiye ti le).

2. Appreciation to some of us includes going to read the books you suggest, coming back to show how we've grown, and referencing your wise and selfless contributions. For instance, one might consider quoting your past analyses to give credits (unofficial intellectual property) to you - the true rewards for a teacher is seeing students grow.

Long story to defend we audio grateful persons, yet not denying that not everyone appreciates selflessness. We appreciate you and other great investors and traders here sir! Can't mention the names in the endless list of FA and TA Ogas, but we know you all!

Pa Emma should write a book. I am also greatful to the WhatsApp group they created that I joined as a guest here some years back. There I met Dr Ajibola (who's podcast has greatly helped me), Ukay and the MD of Yochaa who gave me my first 1k for for using their app. The rest they say is history.

emmanuelewumi:



At N97.6 EPS it should get to N900 or thereabout. I don't use average 5 years PE.

I use justified PE based on the return on equity, earning growth and the spread between the Return on Invested Capital and risk free yield of about 20% on FGN bond

Can you kindly share or Unpack how you use this Justified PE, Sir. Use any example you are very comfortable with

Nascon and DanSugar

I think you can ignore their forecasts, its usually very conservative. I checked their previous 2024 forecast with some of the results and they have massively outperformed each and every one. I think they can make atlas a N20 EPS for Q4.

emmaodet:


Total 9M/24 eps is #80.8, PAT is 27.4b
Q4/24 PAT forecast is 5.7b, so eps will be #16.8
FYI 2024 eps will be #97.6.
Average 5 years P/E is 7.4
Therefore, I see a price of #722
That is a %7.8 upside to the current price of 670

Like I said, no news (yet). FOMO and speculation was driving it

Zegra:
Nascon and DanSugar

The market pattern this year is very unusual. No usual general January bull. Can there be March-May bear without January bull? So what next? Over to ours ogas @BullBearMkt and @currentprice and others. What is TA saying? Abi the Ichumoko cloud don swallow our monies ni?

Nascon sha... I did a short selling at 42-42.30 yesterday hoping to buy back if/when it dips... Wacc was 48.11 though. If I'm able to buy back at 32 at least, I should be able to recoup most of the realized loss🌚

Megawealth and mercy what is driving our omatek na.

How does one short-sell in Nigeria, please?

Ginalex:
Nascon sha... I did a short selling at 42-42.30 yesterday hoping to buy back if/when it dips... Wacc was 48.11 though. If I'm able to buy back at 32 at least, I should be able to recoup most of the realized loss🌚

Sunrisepebble:
I think you can ignore their forecasts, its usually very conservative. I checked their previous 2024 forecast with some of the results and they have massively outperformed each and every one. I think they can make atlas a N20 EPS for Q4.

That will make eps of around #100
Anyway, I don't feel comfortable with the stock and other stocks in the industry as benchmark - Capoil, Eterna, Conoil, MRS.
They all have low profit margin which speaks volumes about that sector - petroleum and lubricant selling and distribution

HesInMe:
How does one short-sell in Nigeria, please?

It's not a "short selling" per se as I didn't borrow anyone's stock to sell. It's just me selling hoping to buy back at a much lower price

Ginalex:
Nascon sha... I did a short selling at 42-42.30 yesterday hoping to buy back if/when it dips... Wacc was 48.11 though. If I'm able to buy back at 32 at least, I should be able to recoup most of the realized loss🌚

Fear women, oh! The same person who was shouting genius the other day has now sold at a loss today. Why did you sell at a loss? I thought we all agreed that Nascon was heading to the moon! You don leave us walker, chai.

NettyNelly:

Can you kindly share or Unpack how you use this Justified PE, Sir. Use any example you are very comfortable with

Understand how to calculate justified P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio using these fundamental factors.

The justified P/E ratio is a fundamental valuation metric that helps determine if a stock is fairly valued based on its growth prospects and returns. Here's how it works:

Let's use a company with these characteristics:
- Return on Equity (ROE) = 15%
- Expected Growth Rate = 8%
- Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) = 12%
- Risk-free rate = 4%
- Equity Risk Premium = 6% (market standard)

The calculation involves several steps:

1. Cost of Equity Calculation:
- Cost of Equity = Risk-free rate + Equity Risk Premium
- In our example: 4% + 6% = 10%

2. Retention Ratio:
- This is how much the company needs to retain to achieve its growth
- Retention Ratio = Growth Rate / ROE
- In our example: 8% / 15% = 53.3%

3. Payout Ratio:
- This is what's left for shareholders
- Payout Ratio = 1 - Retention Ratio
- In our example: 1 - 0.533 = 46.7%

4. Value Spread:
- This shows how much value the company creates above its cost of capital
- Value Spread = ROIC - Cost of Equity
- In our example: 12% - 10% = 2%

5. Final Justified P/E Formula:
```
Justified P/E = Payout Ratio × (1 + Growth Rate) / (Cost of Equity - Growth Rate)
```

Using our numbers:
```
Justified P/E = 0.467 × (1 + 0.08) / (0.10 - 0.08)
= 0.467 × 1.08 / 0.02
= 25.2
```

This means:
- The company's stock can justify trading at 25.2 times earnings
- If the actual P/E is below 25.2, the stock might be undervalued
- If the actual P/E is above 25.2, the stock might be overvalued

The higher justified P/E in this case is supported by:
- Healthy ROE (15%)
- Sustainable growth rate (8%)
- Positive value spread (2%)
- Reasonable payout ratio (46.7%)

As copied from Claudia

ositadima1:




Fear women, oh! The same person who was shouting genius the other day has now sold at a loss today. Why did you sell at a loss? I thought we all agreed that Nascon was heading to the moon! You don leave us walker, chai.

Osita please I'm not in the mood for your yappings. Someone called out a stock at 29 and I called the person a genius when the stock was rallying and even got to 42.35. what's the meaning of "fear woman" in this comment? Or I shouldn't appreciate him for a job well done because of what Osita will say? Kindly point me to where I started hawking Nascon that it'll reach the moon? Abeggggg! This is a new year.. drop that bad character of attacking people because you think you're this thread police.

Oga Loco don market Chams tire walka, why una dey do like this na? Next bull him go come back.

ositadima1:




Fear women, oh! The same person who was shouting genius the other day has now sold at a loss today. Why did you sell at a loss? I thought we all agreed that Nascon was heading to the moon! You don leave us walker, chai.

She wants to buy back at 32 but how sure that NASCON will go back to 32

Ginalex:
Osita please I'm not in the mood for your yappings. Someone called out a stock at 29 and I called the person a genius when the stock rallying and even got to 42.35. what's the "fear woman" in this comment? Or I shouldn't appreciate him for a job well done because of what Osita will say? Kindly point me to where I started hawking Nascon that it'll reach the moon? Abeggggg! This is a new year.. drop that bad character of attacking people because you think you're this thread police.

I entered NASCON because of you, thinking I would reap a bountiful harvest, and now you've left me in the dust. Why?

Abeg no vex, na me suppose dey vex sef.

Abeg, I greet all of una o. Shey GTCO and ZENITHBANK don do their Public Offer and RI allotments, respectively? I never see or hear anything back regarding the offers nahim make I ask.

Zegra:

She wants to buy back at 32 but how sure that NASCON will go back to 32

So, na 32 be the resistance now, Ok. I no know nah. Why she come dey vex for me, I don't know.

Zegra:

She wants to buy back at 32 but how sure that NASCON will go back to 32

To see NASCON at 32 again to tey. But the good thing is that she can still be able to get in at maybe 34 - 36. Which is below her selling price, so it's a win win.

ositadima1:


I entered NASCON because of you, thinking I would reap a bountiful harvest, and now you've left me in the dust. Why?

Abeg no vex, na me suppose dey vex sef.

Where were you when it was pointed out at 29? You were busy doing monitoring spirit on people's comments abi? Abeg shift