Deep Sight:

Well since you agree that Buhari cannot get anything from the SS or SE, then that leaves the SW as the only bone of contention, right? You say that he will get votes from the SW if ACN supports him. But I say that this is not true. The Ribadu precedent is there. He was the ACN candidate, and while the SW electorate went ahead to vote for ACN Governors and parliamentarians, they rejected the ACN Northern Presidential candidate in favour of GEJ.

As far as I am concerned, Buhari is not any more palatable to the SW electorate than Ribadu was. If anything, the SW electorate have a strong tradition of rejecting perceived tyrants, and like I said before, I doubt that they would ever vote an ex-Military Head of State - not even Murtala Mohammed if he were alive - as president. Remember the OBJ case - a Yoruba man himself! - serially rejected by the SW electorate for same reasons. How much more likely is it then, that they would vote a northern ex military Head of State? As such, it seems to me that the entire south will still reject a Buhari Candidacy.

Yes, I agree that the candidacy may have a chance in the SW with Fashola on board as running mate, but at best that will only split things up. There will still be large swathes that will reject the notion simply on account of Buhari. Especially as they know that the VP slot has no powers whatsoever. Finally, be careful about Fashola's popularity. I know very well that he has become deeply unpopular among the lower and poorer classes in Lagos for many of the recent measures he has taken - measures, which, of course, he would never have taken in his first term.

At the very best, such a ticket will split the SW presidential vote. Many would still go for GEJ as opposed to Buhari, I tell you.

This discussion has made me weary. It has made me feel that there is no real present hope to unseat PDP at the centre.

Wadeoye:

Igbos have never voted for Buhari and they wont in 2015 because their own definition of leadership is different and very uncivilized. Hence, it is not the killing in the north that changed their mind but rather their usual hatred for other tribes and religion.

South West is the majority ethinic group in the South and we dont have any issue with Buhari. The reason we are working out an alliance with Buhari's CPC.

Wadeoye:

Man stop being ignorant... I asked you a simple question, you didnt answer it - tell me any northerner or yoruba that can win SS or SE votes if GEJ contests. It is not about Buhari mr man, it is about the sentiment of SS and SE folks. So, stop saying it is had to sell Buhari to SS and SE. Can you sell GEJ to NW or NE?

I am a westerner and you are not - I was also here in south west during the 2011 election. We knew what happened - ACN backed out of Ribadu's candidacy few days/weeks to the election. It was glaring to everybody in south west and the reason Ribadu didnt get much vote here. In Osun state where ACN needed to make assertion that ACN was in control after the installation of Aregbe, ACN campigned there and ensured people voted for Ribadu - Osun state was the only state won by Ribadu.

People in the south west hoped for the merger but when it was glaring that it wont work due to clash of interests, everybody here gave up. And many people didnt even vote in the presidential election as a result of this. Check the total number of people who voted here compared to the number people who registered to vote.

Deep Sight:

Ol boy it doesn't seem that we are addressing the same issues.

By the way, I wonder by what parameter you state that I am not "from" the SW. Lol. You must have a crystal ball.

I do agree about the sentimental voting issue though. That was always the point, in case you didnt notice. That is the only reason why we would have to look for a "realistic" candidate, rather than a "worthy" candidate!

Peace.

Sam_Ikenna:

This is why Nigeria's luck ran out eons ago.
You've written off SE and SS, because, according to you, you're the majority ethnic group in the southern hemisphere. Dont let Lagos population fool you. This is a new Nigeria, its no longer the one "you" operated in 70s through 80s. The Nigeria "we" [emphasis on 'we'] have now is the one "minorities" have found their voices and will never be taken lightly. It'll be nice to see how far "your old Nigeria" will go with Igbo majority, SS, and some middle belt minorities already counted out.

Think about this: What if GEJ wins again? What if GMB wins but GEJ rigs and is declared winner? What do you think'll happen - nothing, nada, rien! Maybe protest in Lagos, violence in Kano and nothern Kaduna - end of the story. GEJ happens to double as mr president and son of the "oil" soil, remember that. If you push him too much or if he feels like hes been chased by "outsiders" he might unleash his "brothers" to shut the oil down and, bro, there's nothing you can do. The last time MEND was active remember how much oil revenue we lost? I guess by now you know who the boss is.

There is a gigantic world of difference between reality and fantasy - fantasy here is simply counting out your paymaster or telling him how hes surrounded and outnumbered. But the reality is - he owns the wealth and he can turn the tap off at any time of his choosing. Mind you, I'm not in anyway implying SW or any other zone for that matter will die or decay once oil is gone, rather I'm saying once the oil is gone that "your" Nigeria you so much used to intimidate and outnumber others will go the way of exponential decay in matter of months.

Now who's the boss! You or the man you outnumbered?
If you're still in doubt as to who the boss is, ask why Boko Haram is still not paid like we did to MEND.

For NL folks this is my take on GEJ and 2015. I think GEJ is a C-/+ leader. I dont think he has any serious agenda for Nigeria. However, if the other political parties field Buhari in 2015 then dont blame GEJ for winning again 'cause he will win. Buhari is more saintly than GEJ - that I believe, but electability in Nigeria political landscape does not and may never depend on one's degree of sainthood. We've been doing passi passi since 1970. Anyway, if the merger btwn CPC and ACN takes place and GMB runs against GEJ, lets assume GMB pairs with Fashola (have nothing agaisnt Fashola - he seems to have his head screwed right), its clear the outcome'll be combustible for the nation. Nigeria will split down the middle and anything can happen.

Gbawe:


Your post would make more sense if you did not assume it is a foregone conclusion GEJ will run in 2015. He may not even gain the PDP ticket and may actually be given the treatment he dished out to Sylva regardless of any amount of Nigeria's money he is planning to spend to buy support.

His candidate , that his pitch for the PDP ticket relies on entirely, could not even become Chairman BOT of PDP despite team GEJ having plenty of time to plan and initiate winning strategy. Ali, drafted in at the last minute and effectively a semi-retired and disinterested Politician, defeated the candidate of the sitting President embarrassingly to the extent they had to claim "deadlock". After that event, GEJ is now trying to med fences with OBJ.

If we were a less sentimental people, it will be obvious to many that events are already suggesting that GEJ will struggle to get the PDP ticket for many reasons and for the fact he has alienated many,many, many influential folks than is politically healthy.

dapotemi: Maybe we shud look at it dis way,Buhari got abt 12 million votes last election,i am very sure dat 95 percent of pple dat voted Buhari in d last election wil stil vote for him if selected by d oppostion.Let us now assume dat Fashola is selected as his running mate,you and i knw dat SW wil fall in place,all d SW governors are stil servin their first term in office nd they wil surely go for anoda term in office.My thought is dat they wil work assidously/tirelessly for their party nd whoever is d candidate,they wil deliver SW votes.Personally for me,i knw alot of pple,hundreds of pple who voted GEJ in 2011,but wil neva vote him again!i dont knw d figure d SW wud be able to deliver to d CPC/ACN merger,but am lookin at block votes!So if Buhari got 12 miilion last election,wit d SW votes dis time around,wit LITTLE frm SE n SS,anytin nd i mean anytin can hapen.Am lukin at a very difficult situatn for PDP if GEJ is choosen as their candidate.

Deep Sight:

Quite realistic. It could be quite close.

And when close, even the slightest rigging would turn the tables. . .

Deep Sight:

Quite realistic. It could be quite close.

And when close, even the slightest rigging would turn the tables. . .

Eziachi:
My take was that 2011 was very tight between GEJ and GMB. If not for the inflation of votes for GEJ in SE/SS and northern areas like Kaduna. I believe that GEJ would have won but would not not win enough vote for an outright victory and there would have been a run-off.

If the same scenario happen in 2015 with a SW candidate for Buhari, the tipping point will be whether the northern politicians that rigged it for GEJ in places like Kaduna and Niger will be willing to do it again?
And if GEJ rigs it again! Just pick up your passport and run, I predicts that might be the tipping point of the end of one Nigeria finally.

Wadeoye:

Man stop being ignorant... I asked you a simple question, you didnt answer it - tell me any northerner or yoruba that can win SS or SE votes if GEJ contests. It is not about Buhari mr man, it is about the sentiment of SS and SE folks. So, stop saying it is had to sell Buhari to SS and SE. Can you sell GEJ to NW or NE?

Only if this question can be answered

dapotemi: Maybe we shud look at it dis way,Buhari got abt 12 million votes last election,i am very sure dat 95 percent of pple dat voted Buhari in d last election wil stil vote for him if selected by d oppostion.Let us now assume dat Fashola is selected as his running mate,you and i knw dat SW wil fall in place,all d SW governors are stil servin their first term in office nd they wil surely go for anoda term in office.My thought is dat they wil work assidously/tirelessly for their party nd whoever is d candidate,they wil deliver SW votes.Personally for me,i knw alot of pple,hundreds of pple who voted GEJ in 2011,but wil neva vote him again!i dont knw d figure d SW wud be able to deliver to d CPC/ACN merger,but am lookin at block votes!So if Buhari got 12 miilion last election,wit d SW votes dis time around,wit LITTLE frm SE n SS,anytin nd i mean anytin can hapen.Am lukin at a very difficult situatn for PDP if GEJ is choosen as their candidate.

nuclearboy: We need to also consider the governors and PDP stalwarts who influenced the 2011 voting pattern (and results) in the north - now that GEJ has effectively said "to your tents O Israel" and watched\allowed BH decimate the north with the JTF becoming almost more unpopular, I doubt any northern politician who has plans for his head will tacitly or otherwise support GEJ! Fear of the reprisals from 2011 will likely keep most Christians in the north from going to the polls as well!

Put soldiers in the booths & with what we saw last time, even they will be scared to allow thumb-printing as was done last time!

Violence aside, the same will likely pan out in the SW! And if the Dokubos etc continue at this pace, GEJ may end up in a ditch in places where he currently feels secure!

The only thing that can change this (from my point of view) is GMB not entering the race! Knowing PDPs desperation, I have wondered a few times if we won't hear of assassination attempts on GMB

Moves: For the opposition to win, assuming gej contests, they will need GMB and a VP from either SS(Rotimi Ameachi) or SE(Ngige).The above combination resolves the issue of muslim-muslim ticket. I dont see the point of Fashola as VP; as other regions may read it as a backdoor to power for the SW after 8yrs of Obj, would rather see him as a possible Senate President. Jonathan cant win the SW with ACN govs in place and neither is his VP a south westerner and GMB will beat him in the north. The opposition will be making a very big mistake if they choose to ignore both the SS and SE, as I dont see how you can beat a man without attacking his strong base.

Wadeoye:

VP must come from within the opposition and ACN is the party to produce this. So, forget about Ameachi or what do you call him. And why should they use Igbo as vp? When Igbo will be the one voting for pdp/gej in 2015. Igbo cant eat their cake and have it. VP will be Fashola or oshiomole.

naijababe:

You've been making some sense so far but can you please stop saying Igbo. It's so utterly offensive.

Gboliwe: How would a Rochas/Fashola ticket sell?

Must the next president and or vice be a former governor?

Deep Sight:

Why risk a controversial candidate at all if you are determined to seize the presidency from the PDP? Why not shop for someone without such "baggage"?

Sam_Ikenna:

Yea, I agree, there's always a non-zero probability that he might be jilted by PDP power-brokers. Anyways, nothing is etched in stone. Whatever permutation we all make online is always going to be just online, you never know what and how the wind will blow, thats why I consider proponents of exclusionary politics as jokers.

Like I said earlier, I have personally downgraded GEJ score-card. But if I were to be in Nigeria in 2015 and the opposing party failed to present a realistic and all inclusive challenger (assuming GEJ is in) then I would go for GEJ. [b If anyone is interested in having GEJ removed without much after-election doom, that person better make sure GEJ's base in SE and SS is contested. Leaving his power base in those regions intact while seeking to measure "the drapes" is pure fantasy. These two regions are arguably more sick of Nigeria than the rest, so when I hear funny folks say stuff like "we outnumber them" or "we count them out," I say ride on bro, but soon you'll go over that cliff. [/b]

Nigeria is already drifting apart, needless to say exclusion will make it worse. Buhari sure will pull in lots of vote from NE and NW but will get zero in SE and SS - if thats not iron curtain I dont know what is. Too many people already feel bad about him and to make matters worse hes never, not for even a single day, tried to clean his image in SS and SE.

In the last election he disregarded them, why? Even Awo, despite the fact he knew he was unliked in the East he still went to Aba and sought for their vote - Aba of all places, if you understand Aba you'll get my drift. Some parents lost their children during after-election violence in the north and, rightly or not, they hold GMB somehow responsible yet he never mounted any kind of high-powered image campaign down south to dispel the allegations. I know he said a few times he wasn't responsible but gosh! hes played into the hands of either bad fate or his opponents. Its either he cant sell himself or hes dismissive of others. Maybe he thinks only NE and NW will win him the thing, I guess now hes included SW as part of the axis that'll get it for him. Buhari may turn out to be the only unelectable saintly politician in Nigeria's History. I feel sorry for him.

danjohn: We must all remember that for a non-PDP President to perform well, he or she would need to have control of the national assembly.

The control of the NASS is desirable however considering the Nigerian context its not a must that he/she will need them to perform well. even now that the retardeen's men are in charge, how far has he faired?


Do you think that the opposition can realistically win the national assembly?

Yes they can if they put both their heads and heart together. the same peeps that will vote in the presidential will also vote in the NASS.

iv4fb: whether PDP, ACN, NNPC, they're all theives, they dont have us in mind.

danjohn: We must all remember that for a non-PDP President to perform well, he or she would need to have control of the national assembly. Do you think that the opposition can realistically win the national assembly?

Demdem: The control of the NASS is desirable however considering the Nigerian context its not a must that he/she will need them to perform well. even now that the retardeen's men are in charge, how far has he faired?

Demdem you do not get my point. If PDP retains control of the national assembly they WILL frustrate Buhari or Fashola. The point I am making is that the ACN/CPC/ANPP merger should not only focus on the presidential election. They need to recruit credible people to run in the governorship, senate, and house of reps elections. If not we would be stuck with a lameduck president who could be impeached for making a forgivable gaffe.

Ideally, the merger needs to include APGA so that the new mega party can have the perceived representation of the 3 largest tribes in Nigeria.

Yes they can if they put both their heads and heart together. the same peeps that will vote in the presidential will also vote in the NASS.

I agree but we must remember that in 2011 ACN had the chance of winning more states but Tinubu decided to choose candidates that did not represent the will of the people. In 2015 we need to have a data driven campaign. The new party needs to have inbuilt institutions that would help them recruit and elect credible candidates with high name recognition and high favorability ratings. For example in the United States the Democratic Party has the Democratic Governors Association, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and the Democratic National Committee. These institutions help the party raise money, recruit candidates, and make sure that they are adequately prepared and equipped to win the election.

Unfortunately, I fear that if such institutions are added to the mega party, they would simple become platforms for people to chop money, and become political godfathers or bigmen.

Sam_Ikenna:

Yea, I agree, there's always a non-zero probability that he might be jilted by PDP power-brokers. Anyways, nothing is etched in stone. Whatever permutation we all make online is always going to be just online, you never know what and how the wind will blow, thats why I consider proponents of exclusionary politics as jokers.

Like I said earlier, I have personally downgraded GEJ score-card. But if I were to be in Nigeria in 2015 and the opposing party failed to present a realistic and all inclusive challenger (assuming GEJ is in) then I would go for GEJ. If anyone is interested in having GEJ removed without much after-election doom, that person better make sure GEJ's base in SE and SS is contested. Leaving his power base in those regions intact while seeking to measure "the drapes" is pure fantasy. These two regions are arguably more sick of Nigeria than the rest, so when I hear funny folks say stuff like "we outnumber them" or "we count them out," I say ride on bro, but soon you'll go over that cliff.

Nigeria is already drifting apart, needless to say exclusion will make it worse. Buhari sure will pull in lots of vote from NE and NW but will get zero in SE and SS - if thats not iron curtain I dont know what is. Too many people already feel bad about him and to make matters worse hes never, not for even a single day, tried to clean his image in SS and SE.

In the last election he disregarded them, why? Even Awo, despite the fact he knew he was unliked in the East he still went to Aba and sought for their vote - Aba of all places, if you understand Aba you'll get my drift. Some parents lost their children during after-election violence in the north and, rightly or not, they hold GMB somehow responsible yet he never mounted any kind of high-powered image campaign down south to dispel the allegations. I know he said a few times he wasn't responsible but gosh! hes played into the hands of either bad fate or his opponents. Its either he cant sell himself or hes dismissive of others. Maybe he thinks only NE and NW will win him the thing, I guess now hes included SW as part of the axis that'll get it for him. Buhari may turn out to be the only unelectable saintly politician in Nigeria's History. I feel sorry for him.

Gbawe:

Look, you are still making the same mistake by going off tangent again and disregarding the points others make perhaps to satisfy a need to frame things around your outlook. An outlook you would see is inconsequential if you only focus on what others are saying instead of trying to smuggle an SE/SS or ethnic perspective into everything. Also, I really don't know why you are mentioning Buhari here.

My original point made was that GEJ may not get the ticket because he has to defeat the Northern caucus in the PDP to gain it. It is looking unlikely to me right now. GEJ's failure will simply mean the PDP will present a Northern Presidential candidate. The mega Party will do the same. Nigeria will get a Northern President, whether some like it or not, and nothing will happen because the stage at which the ordinary Nigerian cannot complain of 'rigging', i.e internal Party election, has been used to cleverly take GEJ out. That is what is likely to happen in my opinion and everything you say here would then simply appear superfluous to issues and rather vainglorious.

We are not at the stage where you should start dragging the SE/SS/SW or North into any obligatory regional responsibility/role. We are at the stage where all politicians from all regions, even if processes are tainted with ethnicity, must be respected to churn up their candidates. We have no say in that stage of issues and it may take GEJ out. You need to make that distinction otherwise you will continue to talk of things that don't matter now and may never matter or come into play. This is the stage to just watch what the Parties are doing instead of getting ahead of ourselves.

Gbawe:
Look, you are still making the same mistake by going off tangent again and disregarding the points others make perhaps to satisfy a need to frame things around your outlook. An outlook you would see is inconsequential if you only focus on what others are saying instead of trying to smuggle an SE/SS or ethnic perspective into everything. Also, I really don't know why you are mentioning Buhari here.

Gbawe:
My original point made was that GEJ may not get the ticket because he has to defeat the Northern caucus in the PDP to gain it. It is looking unlikely to me right now. GEJ's failure will simply mean the PDP will present a Northern Presidential candidate. The mega Party will do the same. Nigeria will get a Northern President, whether some like it or not, and nothing will happen because the stage at which the ordinary Nigerian cannot complain of 'rigging', i.e internal Party election, has been used to cleverly take GEJ out. That is what is likely to happen in my opinion and everything you say here would then simply appear superfluous to issues and rather vainglorious.

Gbawe:
We are not at the stage where you should start dragging the SE/SS/SW or North into any obligatory regional responsibility/role. We are at the stage where all politicians from all regions, even if processes are tainted with ethnicity, must be respected to churn up their candidates. We have no say in that stage of issues and it may take GEJ out. You need to make that distinction otherwise you will continue to talk of things that don't matter now and may never matter or come into play. This is the stage to just watch what the Parties are doing instead of getting ahead of ourselves.